ageing and declining populations
TRANSCRIPT
DO NOW…
What do these numbers refer to? Discuss in pairs and come up with a logical order / set of reasons.
30 years 61%
2007 314 per 1000
9,076,900
In 2012, Japanese over-65s made up a record 24% of their population; it is projected that Britain will reach, and probably surpass, this figure by
2030.
If current working patterns continue, the ‘old age dependency ratio’ is likely to increase:
- in 1971 the ratio was 280 pensioners per 1,000 working age- in 2009 this ratio increased to 314 per 1,000 - by 2032 the ratio will become 349, even with implementation of higher state pension ages.
Public expenditure on pensions and related benefits is going to rise from 4.7% of our total GDP in 2007 to 6.2% of GDP in
2032.
Old Age Dependency Ratio (OADR) = ‘the number of people over the state pension age (currently 65years old) per 1’000 people of working age’
However, the situation isn’t all negative…
Source : http://www.kingsfund.org.uk/time-to-think-differently/trends/demography/ageing-population
What are the implications (positive and negative) of an ageing population?
6
Refer to example India
R.E.A.D. the graph and
explain
Link to development
data
Compare and contrast data
Describe and explain the
shapes of the graphs (READ)
Write in full sentences using
PEEL
5
Compare the gender balance
Calculate the dependency
ratio
Suggest reasons for the
distribution of ages / genders
Suggest how the graphs may
change in future
Link to a specific stage on the
DTM
Explain why each graph fits its stage of the
DTM
4
Suggest reasons for the
distribution of ages / genders
Explain what dependency
means
Consider what proportion are youthful (0-14)
dependents
Write in full sentences using
PEEL
Link to real fact from the graph (e.g. males 0-4
….)
Describe the shapes of the graphs (READ)
3
Explain why each graph fits its stage of the
DTM
Suggest reasons for the
distribution of ages / genders
Link to a specific stage on the
DTM
Consider what proportion are
ageing (65+) dependents
Suggest how the graphs may
change in future
Link to real fact from the graph (e.g. males 0-4
….)
2
Link to real fact from the graph (e.g. males 0-4
….)
Link to a specific stage on the
DTM
Suggest how the graphs may
change in future
Link to development
data
Explain why each graph fits its stage of the
DTM
Explain why each graph fits its stage of the
DTM
1
Write in full sentences using
PEEL
Explain why each graph fits its stage of the
DTM
Link to real fact from the graph (e.g. males 0-4
….)
Include key terms, e.g.
infant mortality, etc,.
Consider the impact on the
national economy
Link to development
data
1 2 3 4 5 6
Compare and contrast an MEDC and LEDC population structure. Suggest possible reasons for the structure, how it may change in future, and what potential problems there may be based upon the distribution of
ages / genders.
Describe the distribution of the world’s population density. Suggest reasons for the pattern. (4)
Why are populations unevenly spread?
Countries that are likely to have the biggest population growth by 2050:
GROWERS:1. India (467million projected
increase)2. Nigeria (231 million)3. Pakistan (101 million)4. Tanzania (93million)5. USA (93million)6. DR Congo (83million)7. Ethiopia (62million)8. Philippines (62million)9. Uganda (61million)10. Kenya (56million)
DECLINERS:1. Japan (25% projected decrease
by 2050)2. Ukraine (23%)3. Georgia (22%)4. Bulgaria (21%)5. Bosnia-Herzegovina (20%)6. Latvia (19%)7. Serbia (19%)8. Lithuana (18%)9. Poland (16%)10. Moldova (15%)(16. Germany 12%)
• A country’s population increase or decrease depends upon:
- Natural increase / decrease (birth rate minus death rate)- Migration
How might population structures, ageing populations, and declining populations all link to
migration?
Declining populations
• By 2050, the Japanese population will have declined from 130million to 100million – the biggest drop for any MEDC
• Japan has a low fertility rate: Japanese women have on average 1.3 children per woman
• What are the implications? How might they be managed?
Exam Qs
• State 2 possible impacts of an ageing population that affect the economy. [2marks]
• Suggest how an ageing population may be an advantage to a country. [4marks]
• With reference to a named country, describe and explain the impacts that an ageing or declining population may have upon society, economy and the environment. [9marks]
Enquiry
• Research what is being done to combat declining populations in Germany and Japan, why the populations are ageing and declining, and evaluate how successful these strategies are.
• E.g. http://nyti.ms/19u38q9 • http://bit.ly/18NFnid• http://bbc.in/18hnuYA• http://bit.ly/19u4dOH
Homework(on ShowMyHomework)
• Explain what a population pyramid shows .[2marks] • What is an ageing population, and how can it affect a population or economy?
[3marks]
• What does a concave population pyramid suggest about the structure of a population? [2marks]
• Find a population pyramid for the USA and Somalia. Compare the two and describe the differences and similarities at different age stages of the pyramid. [6marks]
• How would you suggest the China One Child Policy might affect a future population pyramid for China in 2050? [3marks]
Exam Qs:1. Where on the DTM do each of these population pyramids belong? Why? [4]A = Stage ………because…………….B = C = D = 2. Which pyramid has the highest proportion of ageing dependents? [1]3. Describe and explain possible implications (positive or negative) of an ageing population. [4]
A B
C D
“When it comes to success, there are no shortcuts”
13th May 2014 - SDME
22nd May 2014 – Key Themes