ageing well: understanding the health and wellbeing needs ... · sources: 2018 mid-year population...
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Ageing Well: Understanding the health and
wellbeing needs of the population aged 65 and over in Shropshire
A Strategic needs assessment
Rachel Robinson
Director of Public Health, Shropshire
Overview
• Why are we all here?
• Why and what is a needs assessment?
• Why are you here?
• Strategic Needs Assessment
Today people in Nuneaton and Bedworth are living longer, but not necessarily healthier lives…Shropshire's
Why we are here?
4
• RTAs
• Estimated Diabetes
• Overweight or Obese
• Suicide and Mental
Health
• Excess winter deaths
• Alcohol admissions
5
We will do everything in our power to enable people across
Shropshire to pursue happy, healthy lives and put people and
communities at the heart of everything we do.
We will share responsibility to transform our services
We will use data/information/insights and understanding to
inform what we do - (Joint Strategic Needs Assessment - JSNA)
What is a needs
assessment?
“The JSNA should be the source of evidence from which everything flows”
Joint across organisations and communities
Joint Strategic Needs Assessment
• The purpose of this needs assessment is to:
– Identify the health and wellbeing needs of the population
of the over 65s population in Shropshire;
– Map the services/assets in the area;
– Make recommendations for how services can be
improved / redesigned to make sure they are being
delivered to the people who need them most.
– Theme based needs assessment support priorities for
which a demonstrable and imminent commissioning decision needed to be made.
– Moving to Place Based needs assessments from April
Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA)
Ageing Well: Understanding the health and wellbeing
needs of the population aged 65 and over in Shropshire
Shropshire Key
Facts
Sources: 2018 Mid-Year Population Estimates, 2016 Based Sub-National Household Projections, 2011 Census, Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Table CTSOP3.0: Number of properties by Council Tax band, (snapshot 31st March 2018), Valuation Office Agency (VOA) published 29th November 2018.
Total Population Mid-2018: 320,300
Total Households Mid-2018: 137,600
Number of Dwellings 2018: 142,180
Area: 319,730 hectares
Population Density: 1 person per hectare
Average: Mean Age: 44 years, Median Age: 47 years
© Crown copyright 2019 OS 100049049Codepoint UK, Ordnance Survey
Each Postcode Unit contains an average of 15 adjoining addresses.Scale: 1:308,289
Shropshire Residential Postcode Units
© Crown copyright 2019 OS 100049049Codepoint UK, Ordnance Survey
Each Postcode Unit contains an average of 15 adjoining addresses.
Northumberland Residential Postcode Units
Scale: 1:308,289
Area and Population• 2017 Population 317,000+, 24% of which aged 65+ 1.2% aged 90+, which
is higher than England’s 18% and 0.9% respectively
• Shropshire’s 65+ population increased by 48% taking it to a third of
population by 2037.
• Meanwhile the 85+ population will increase by 135%, taking it from 3% of
population now to 7% in 2037.
• While Shropshire ranks as the 115th most deprived area out of 152
authorities, there are pockets of deprivation and inequalities
• The Treasury estimated that 6% of the population is lesbian or gay, - applied
to the estimated 76,030 people aged over 65 in Shropshire = 4,561 people.
6% of estimated 5,135 nursing and residential beds in Shropshire and T&W
= 308 beds
Shropshire People 2017
Population Change by
Broad Age group
The shift in age structure in Shropshire with projected decline in the age groups below 65 years of age and growth in the older age groups above 65 years. Of particular concern for service providers is the more than doubling of the elderly population, as this age group places the greatest demand upon services.
Shropshire People Projections
Period Shropshire: population aged 65+
Shropshire: % of population aged 65+
West Midlands: % of population aged 65+
England: % of population aged 65+
2010 62,149 20.4% 16.8% 16.3%
2011 63,929 20.8% 17.0% 16.4%
2012 66,485 21.6% 17.4% 16.9%
2013 68,683 22.2% 17.7% 17.3%
2014 70,902 22.8% 18.0% 17.6%
2015 72,720 23.3% 18.2% 17.7%
2016 74,302 23.6% 18.3% 17.9%
2017 76,030 23.9% 18.4% 18.0%
Trends in Percentage of Shropshire’s
People Aged 65 and Over
Internal Net Migration
Shropshire % of Place Plan Population
Aged 65 +
Health in Shropshire2016-18 Males Females
Life Expectancy 80.5 83.5
Healthy Life Expectancy 64.0 64.6
Life expectancy at 65 19.3 21.3
Pneumococcal vaccination 71.3%
Flu vaccination 72.6%
Shingles vaccination 49.9%
Healthcheck coverage 44.3%
QOF Recorded Dementia in 65+ 1.2%
QOF Recorded Hypertension 16.5%
QOF Recorded Depression 11.8%
QOF Recorded Obesity 11.5%
Health in ShropshireRate of Deaths from disease among
people aged 65 years and over from
Shropshire rate per
100,000
Comparison with
England
Cardiovascular Disease 1,032.3 Better
Cancer 1,050.6 Similar
Respiratory Disease 559.7 Better
Dementia 941 Similar
Cardiovascular Disease 1,032.3 Better
Deaths in Person’s Usual Place of
Residence
Shropshire
Percentage
Comparison with
England
% deaths all ages 51.7% Higher
% deaths 85+ 60.6% Higher
% deaths 75-84 47.7% Higher
% deaths 65-74 42.6% Similar
% deaths <65 39.6% Similar
% of dementia 65+ 75.9% Higher
Health in ShropshireEmergency Hospital Admissions
for Falls and Hip Fractures
Shropshire rate
per 100,000
Comparison
with England
Emergency hospital admissions due to falls
in people aged 65 and over 1,733 Better
Emergency hospital admissions due to falls
in people aged 65 – 79 774 Better
Emergency hospital admissions due to falls
in people aged 80 and over4,515 Better
Hip fractures in people aged 65 and over 589 Similar
Hip fractures in people aged 65 – 79 216 Similar
Hip fractures in people aged 80 and over 1,668 Worse
Vision Related Indicator Shropshire
rate per
100,000
Comparison
with
England
Preventable sight loss related to Age Related Macular
Degeneration aged 65+106.5 Similar
People registered blind or partially sighted aged 65-74 365 Lower
People registered blind or partially sighted people aged 75+ 2,691 Lower
Loneliness in older people
Wem
Shrewsbury
Bishop's Castle
Bridgnorth
Oswestry
Ludlow
Craven Arms
Market Drayton
Ellesmere
Church Stretton
Cleobury Mortimer
Whitchurch
Shifnal
Much Wenlock
Albrighton
Broseley
Highley
Pontesbury and Minsterley
-4.9 - -4.4
-4.3 - -4.2
-4.1 - -3.8
-3.7 - -3.4
-3.3 - -2.7
Place Plan Boundaries
2011 Census Table CT0467 Log odds of loneliness for those aged 65 and over
Loneliness in 65+ Population
Value Closer to 0 = greater level of loneliness
© Crown copyright and database rights 2019 OS 100049049
Projecting Older People Population Information System
Predictions of disease prevalence 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035
People aged 65+ with a limiting long term illness whose day-to-day activities
are limited a little19,676 20,087 22,593 25,305 27,561
People aged 65+ with a limiting long term illness whose day-to-day activities
are limited a lot16,502 16,875 19,329 21,955 24,482
People aged 65+ with depression 6,783 6,919 7,641 8,564 9,349
People aged 65+ with severe depression 2,141 2,186 2,491 2,805 3,077
People aged 65+ with dementia 5,543 5,680 6,611 7,737 8,910
People aged 65+ with a longstanding health condition caused by a heart attack 3,871 3,954 4,412 4,956 5,431
People aged 65+ with a longstanding health condition caused by a stroke 1,843 1,883 2,123 2,384 2,617
People aged 65+ with a longstanding health condition caused by bronchitis
and emphysema1,337 1,364 1,513 1,701 1,864
People aged 65+ with a fall 21,000 21,442 23,995 27,348 30,362
People aged 65+ predicted numbers of hospital admissions due to falls 2,505 2,571 3,022 3,569 3,943
People aged 65+ with a bladder problem less than once a week 2,542 2,598 2,913 3,315 3,667
People aged 65+ with a bladder problem at least once a week 12,932 13,207 14,827 16,736 18,524
People aged 65+ with a moderate or severe visual impairment 6,926 7,106 8,152 9,161 10,023
People aged 75 and over with registrable eye conditions 2,355 2,445 2,982 3,341 3,667
People aged 65+ with some hearing loss 48,019 49,268 55,611 63,552 70,328
People aged 65+ with severe hearing loss 6,208 6,397 7,541 9,187 10,297
People aged 65+ unable to manage at least one activity on their own 14,434 14,765 16,803 19,335 21,877
People aged 65+ with a BMI of 30 or more 20,489 20,879 22,689 25,210 27,314
People aged 65+ with diabetes 9,849 10,043 11,063 12,423 13,603
People aged 65+ with a learning disability 1,652 1,682 1,854 2,085 2,292
People aged 65+ with a moderate or severe learning disability 222 225 242 272 296
People aged 65+ with autistic spectrum disorders 744 758 844 952 1,044
A&E attendance 65+ April 13 to March 18
• There were 93,437 attendances for those 65 and over – made up
of 44,544 unique patients
A&E attendance 65+ April 13 to March 18
– Discharge Destination
Inpatient Admissions 65+ April 14 to March 18
• There were 133,463 inpatient spells for those 65 and over –
made up of 47,542 unique patients
Inpatient Treatment Specialty
Inpatient Length of Stay
Outpatient Attendances 65+ April 14 to March 18
• There were 617,431 outpatient appointments for those 65 and
over – made up of 64,959 unique patients
Treatment Specialty of Outpatient Appointments
Global Burden of Disease – Top 15 Causes of
Death in 2017 in 70+ Age Group in Shropshire
Global Burden of Disease – Top 15 Diseases as
% of Total DALYS in 2017 in 70+ Age Group in
Shropshire
Single Person Households
All single person
householdsOlder single person
households
Wem
Shrewsbury
Bishop's Castle
Bridgnorth
Oswestry
Ludlow
Craven Arms
Market Drayton
Ellesmere
Church Stretton
Cleobury Mortimer
Whitchurch
Shifnal
Much Wenlock
Albrighton
Broseley
Highley
Pontesbury and Minsterley
Place Plan Boundaries
4% - 8%
9% - 12%
13% - 17%
18% - 24%
25% - 40%
Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy, Sub-Regional Data 2015
Proportion of Households Fuel Poor
Fuel Poverty
• Shropshire has a significantly worse age
standardised rate than England for
admission episodes for alcohol-related
conditions
– for persons aged 65+ male and female
Why are you here?
• The evidence
• You - the key stakeholders
– people with an interest in the area
– Know what's happening in Shropshire
– Developing recommendations and next steps
• Additions – are there gaps?
• Identify key themes
• Shape recommendations as stakeholder group.
How do the gaps feed into recommendations?
• Targeted work arising from Needs Assessment
• Starting Point