agent-based computational social science in china ： its present state and future prospects wei...

Agent-based Computational Social Science in China ：

Its Present State and Future Prospects

Wei ZHANG, Ziqaing WU & Yongjie ZHANG

College of Management & Economics

Tianjin University, China

2012-11-31

Outline

• Introduction• Data sets• Overview of the literature• Major players in the field• Funding vs. publication• Fields distribution of ACSS• The important references• Conclusions

2

3

Paper downloads from Springer during weekdays and weekends (Journal of Informetrics, 2012)

Who is more hardworking?

What it is behind?

Outline


4

Introduction

• Terminology• Agent-based Computational Economics (ACE)

is the computational study of economies modeled as evolving systems of autonomous interacting agents (Tesftsion & Judd, 2006)

• Along this line, we just use the similar term ACSS to denote the computational study concerned with society and human behaviors, which are modeled as evolving systems of autonomous interacting agents

5

Introduction• Culture impacts• People tend to think of, especially social,

issues in a more complex way, including tons of intertwined factors

• More “flexible”, more believe in “negotiable”• Policy-makers like to see the procedure, to

be involved, instead of being given an abstract math model

• Comparatively, not much overwhelming “mainstream” works adopting the traditional methodology in doing research in these fields

6

Introduction

• So, as an emerging field, ACSS grows quickly in China in the last decade

• Milestones– 1998 first paper by Chinese scholar(s), in

Chinese– 1999 first ACSS project funded by NSFC– 2001 first paper in English– 2010 NSFC’s well-known Shuangqing Forum

(5oth ) selected ACSS as theme– 2011 MoE & NSFC put ACSS as one of the

“Priority Areas of the Fields” in their 12th Five Year Plans, respectively

7

Outline

• Introduction• Data sets• Overview of the literature• Major players (journals, institutes and • Funding vs. publication• Fields distribution of ACSS• The key references as the foundation of

research• Conclusions

8

Data Sets

• Databases selected and time horizon– SCI------- 1997 - 2012.7

– SSCI----- 1997 - 2012.7

– CSCD （ in Chinese ） ----1997 - 2012.4

– CSSCI （ in Chinese ） ----1998 – 2011.12

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Search Strategy

SCI & SSCI• Key words: “Agent-based” AND “Multi-

agent Simulation”• Authors’ Affiliation with: “P. R. China”

CSCD & CSSCI: Key Words• 基于 agent• 基于多 agent• 基于主体• 基于多主体• 计算实验Type of literature: Article AND

Review10

Areas Searched in SCI

• COMPUTER SCIENCE • ENGINEERING • AUTOMATION CONTROL SYSTEMS • OPERATIONS RESEARCH MANAGEMENT

SCIENCE• PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY• BUSINESS ECONOMICS• PHYSICS • ENERGY FUELS• ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES ECOLOGY• EDUCATION EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH• INFORMATION SCIENCE LIBRARY SCIENCE

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Areas Searched in CSCD

• 自动化技术、计算机技术 (automation, computer technology)• 工业经济 (industrial economics)• 自然科学总论 (natural science/general)• 货币/ 金融、银行/ 保险 (monetary, banking, finance,

insurance)• 经济学（除会计） (economics)• 图书馆学，情报学 (library, information intelligence)• 农业基础科学 (agriculture science)• 贸易经济 (domestic and international trade)• 综合性人文科学 (humanities/interdisciplinary)• 综合性经济科学 (economic science/interdisciplinary)• 农业经济 (agricultural economics)• 文化事业/ 信息与知识传播（除图书馆学和档案学） (culture/

information and knowledge)• 教育 (education)

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Intl Journal SCI SSCI

“Agent-based” 314 74“Multi-agent Simulation”

9 6

Sub Total 323 80Chinese Journal CSCD CSSCI

“基于 agent” 500 47“基于多 agent” 255 26“基于主体” 22 58“基于多主体” 17 3“计算实验” 15 11Sub Total 809 145Total 1132 225

Primary Search Result

13

Further Screening

• Among the primary search result, we made a further selection by excluding the papers:– Published by scholars from HK or Macao– Not really using Agent-based approach – Not related to Social Science at all

• Approach– Proof-reading by two doctoral students,

plus one faculty member– Followed by group discussion to finalize

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Database Total

Intl Journal SCI SSCI

(A) Primary 323 80 403

(B) Selected 67 55 122

Chinese Journal CSCD CSSCI

(C) Primary 809 145 954

(D) Selected 93 44 137

Primary Total (A)+(C) 1132 225 1357

Final Result (B)+(D) 160 99 259

Final Search Result

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Outline


16

Overview of the literature

• Totally 259 papers published in last 15 years, with a significant trend of growth

• 576 accumulated authors from 172 institutes made contributions to this publication

• The first authors of the papers are from 86 institutes

• Out of these 259 papers, 137 are published on 72 Chinese Journals

• 122 papers were published on 76 international journals

17

Growth of the Publication

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Total Counts: both on INTL & CHN journals

19


Chinese

Counts: INTL or CHN journals

20


Scholars Worldwide, Source: SSCI database 1997-2008 (Chen Shuheng, 2011)

Chinese Scholars, Source: SCI & SSCI database 1997-2012

Overview of the Citation• To estimate the citation of a paper from the

137 ones in Chinese, we can employed either the following two standards (A or B):• A: The number from CNKI (a Chinese counterpart of

“Google Scholar” in this regard), plus Google Scholar • B: The number from union set of CSCD and CSSCI,

which are counterparts of SCI and SSCI respectively

• To estimate the citation of a paper from the 122 ones in English, we employed the following two standards (A or B):• A: The sum of the numbers from Google Scholar and

CNKI• B: The number from SCI and SSCI

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Overview of the Citation• For the 137 papers in Chinese

• By Standard A （ CNKI + Google Scholar ， 2012/8/15）

• Total citation: 1255; Avg. citation per paper: 9.16• By Standard B （ CSCD AND CSSCI ， 2012/8/15 ）• N/A, due to the error in CSCD

• For the 122 papers in English• By Standard A （ Google Scholar+CNKI ， 2012/8/15 ）• Total citation: 1124; Avg. citation per paper: 9.21• By Standard B （ SCI OR SSCI ， 2012/8/14 ）• Total citation: 508; Avg. citation per paper: 4.16

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Source: SCI or SSCI, as on 2012-8-14; CNKI & Google, as on 2012-8-15

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The citation: yearly breakdown

Source: SCI or SSCI, as on 2012-8-14

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The citation: yearly breakdown

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

140010*A B 5*A(t-3)

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The citation: An comparison

A: Intl jounarl papers by CHN scholars, Source: SSCI/SCI 2012-8-14B: Intl journal papers by INTL scholars, Source: SSCI, (Chen, 2011)

Outline


26

Affiliated Institutes Distribution

27

Paper published

# of Institutes Paper published

# of Institutes

20 1 10 2

19 0 9 1

18 1 8 0

17 0 7 4

16 0 6 4

15 0 5 5

14 0 4 8

13 1 3 10

12 1 2 17

11 2 1 115

Total 259 172

Data: papers published on Chinese and international journals, counted by accumulated authors

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Paperspublished

Affiliated Institutes Distribution

Institutes Publication Main Area

1Huazhong University of Science and Technology

20BUSINESS / MANAGEMENT SCI ENCE

2 Tianjin University 18 BUSINESS, FINANCE 3 Nanjing University 13 MANAGEMENT SCIENCE

4 Chinese Academy of Science 12 MANAGEMENT SCIENCE

5 Peking University 11 N/A

5 Xi An Jiao Tong University 11 MANAGEMENT SCIENCE

7 Jilin University 10 ECONOMICS7 Sun Yat Sen University 10 GEOGRAPHY

9 Tsinghua University 9 MANAGEMENT SCIENCE

9 East China University of Science and Technology 7

BUSINESS / BUSINESS, FINANCE

9 Beijing Normal University 7ECONOMICS / BUSINESS, FINANCE

9 Shanghai Jiao Tong University 7ECONOMICS / MANAGEMENT SCI

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Active Institutes

30

Distribution of Journals (1997-2012)

76 International journals72 Chinese journals148 in total

Number of papers published

• To study which journals are playing the most important role in the contribution of literature, the so-called Bradford’s Law applies

• According to the law ， if the journals are sorted by the number of articles published on each journal and then divided into three catalogues

• Each catalogue will contain roughly one third of the total number of the articles

• Then the journal numbers in the three catalogues should follow the ratio of 1:n:n2

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　 (A)No. of articles

(B) No. of journals

Accumulated

Journals

(D)=(A)*(B)

Accumulated ( D )

(A)”Core”

13 1 1 13 139 1 2 9 226 2 4 12 345 2 6 10 444 9 15 36 80

(B)Relevant

3 12 27 36 1162 22 49 44 160

(C)Marginal

1 99 148 99 259 Class of

JournalAccumulated

( D )No. of

journals

Range of No. of

articles

Average articles per

journal

A 80 15 (15) 4 ～ 13 6 B 80 34 (34) 2 ～ 3 2 C 99 99 (77) 1 1

“Top Journals”Journal Paper

1 Physica A-Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 132 Journal of Management Sciences in China(in Chinese) 93 Journal of System Simulation(in Chinese) 64 Systems Engineering: Theory and Practice(in Chinese) 65 Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory 5

Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology(in Chinese) 57 Complex Systems and Complex Science(in Chinese) 4

Computer Engineering and Applications(in Chinese) 4Computer Simulation(in Chinese) 4Expert Systems with Applications 4Information Science (in Chinese) 4International Journal of Production Research 4Journal of Management Sciences(in Chinese) 4Statistics and Decision(in Chinese) 4Systems Engineering(in Chinese) 4

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Title (Chen, 2011; 8 core journals, 3% of total ) Count % Acc %

JASSS-The Journal Of Artificial Societies And Social Simulation 120 15.11 15.11

PHYSICA A-Statistical Mechanics And Its Applications 27 3.40 18.51

Journal Of Economic Dynamics & Control 23 2.90 21.41

Journal Of Economic Behavior & Organization 22 2.77 24.18

Environment And Planning B-Planning & Design 21 2.64 26.82

Advances In Complex Systems 18 2.27 29.09

Social Science Computer Review 17 2.14 31.23

Adaptive Behavior 11 1.39 32.62

Title (This study, 2012; 6 “core” journals; 4% of total) Count % Acc %

PHYSICA A-Statistical Mechanics And Its Applications 13 5.01 5.01

Journal of Management Sciences in China (in Chinese) 9 3.47 8.48

Journal of System Simulation (in Chinese) 6 2.32 10.80

Systems Engineering: Theory and Practice (in Chinese) 6 2.32 13.12

Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory 5 1.93 15.05

Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology (in Chinese)

5 1.93 16.98

• To analyze individual author’s contribution to the literature, Lotka’s Law (Lotka, 1926) is used

• It generally describes the scientific productivity of authors, relating the number of authors with the number of their publications

• The law says that yx, the number of authors who published x papers, is proportion to the reciprocal of x2, or in general, xn.

• That is: yx= C/ xn

• Where C is a field-featured constant, denoting the average number of publication per author in a given field

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Author Productivity

Distribution of author productivity

Publish(s) Author(s)

Sum of Record Count

Acc Record Count

% of Acc Record Count

AccAuthor(s)

% of Author(s)

% of Acc Author(s)

13 1 13 13 1.73% 1 0.17% 0.17%12 0 0 13 1.73% 1 0.00% 0.17%11 1 11 24 3.19% 2 0.17% 0.35%10 0 0 24 3.19% 2 0.00% 0.35%9 2 18 42 5.58% 4 0.35% 0.69%8 1 8 50 6.64% 5 0.17% 0.87%7 0 0 50 6.64% 5 0.00% 0.87%6 1 6 56 7.44% 6 0.17% 1.04%5 1 5 61 8.10% 7 0.17% 1.22%4 3 12 73 9.69% 10 0.52% 1.74%3 18 54 127 16.87% 28 3.13% 4.86%2 78 156 283 37.58% 106 13.54% 18.40%1 470 470 753 100.00% 576 81.60% 100.00%

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• Based on the data above, it is estimated that:

• yx= 0.7308/ x2.43

• However, when applying K-S test to measure the fitness of our data to this generalized Lotka’s Law, it failed a bit, since the max deviation of the data, Dmax of 0.0854, exceeded the statistic hurdle of 0.0679

• (See the following calculation)

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Publish(s)

Author(s)% of

Author(s)

% of Acc author(s)

Fn(x)

Lotka’s Law

expected

% of Acc expected author(s)

F0(x)

|F0(x) - Fn(x)|

1 470 0.8160 0.8160 0.7308 0.7308 0.0852 2 78 0.1354 0.9514 0.1352 0.8660 0.0854 3 18 0.0313 0.9826 0.0504 0.9164 0.0662 4 3 0.0052 0.9878 0.0250 0.9415 0.0464 5 1 0.0017 0.9896 0.0145 0.9560 0.0336 6 1 0.0017 0.9913 0.0093 0.9653 0.0260 7 0 0.0000 0.9913 0.0064 0.9717 0.0196 8 1 0.0017 0.9931 0.0046 0.9764 0.0167 9 2 0.0035 0.9965 0.0035 0.9798 0.0167

10 0 0.0000 0.9965 0.0027 0.9825 0.0140 11 1 0.0017 0.9983 0.0021 0.9847 0.0136 12 0 0.0000 0.9983 0.0017 0.9864 0.0119 13 1 0.0017 1.0000 0.0014 0.9878 0.0122

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• Even though, we can still compare this result with Chen’s (2011) international scholars’ works

• Our result:

yx= 0.7308/ x2.43

• Chen’s:

yx= 0.8573/ x3.2

• Meaning that CHN scholars’ productivity is a bit lower, and the number of authors who published more papers shrinks somewhat slower too.

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Author Count*

% Institute Main Area

1 Li Xia 6 4.92% Sun Yat Sen University GEOGRAPHY

2 Hu Bin 4 3.28%Huazhong University of Science and Technology

BUSINESS

Liu Xiaoping 4 3.28% Sun Yat Sen University GEOGRAPHY Sheng Zhaohan 4 3.28% Nanjing University MANAGEMENT SCI

Zhang Wei 4 3.28% Tianjin University BUSINESS, FINANCE

6 Li Honggang 3 2.46%Beijing Normal University

BUSINESS, FINANCE

Shen Qiping 3 2.46%Harbin Institute of Technology

MANAGEMENT SCI

Xiao Renbin 3 2.46%Huazhong University of Science and Technology

COMMUNICATION/POLITICAL SCIENCE

Xiong Xiong 3 2.46% Tianjin University BUSINESS, FINANCE

Xue Xiaolong 3 2.46%Harbin Institute of Technology

MANAGEMENT SCI

Zhang Tong 3 2.46%Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

ECONOMICS

Zhang Yongjie 3 2.46% Tianjin University BUSINESS, FINANCE

40

Relatively Active Authors

* Note: Sorted by international publications

Outline

• Introduction• Data sets• Overview of the literature• Major players (journals, institutes and

authors)• Funding vs. publication• Fields distribution of ACSS• The key references as the foundation of

research• Conclusions

41

Research Funding

• Funding, one way or another, is one of the important resource for doing research

• Comparing with that in developed economies, the research funding mechanism in China is quite different

• Almost of all research funding is from outside resources, based on intense competition among scholars

• So, it is possible that there exists some relation between the outside funding and publication

42

Research Funding

• Scientific papers are the outcome of basic research

• Therefore, the funding for this kind of research is chosen to study

• In China, NSFC is a major funding agency to support fundamental studies in, among others, social science, and keep nice data records

43

Data set

• Time horizon: 1997-2011• Scope

– Key words for searching: agent/主体 /计算实验 / 仿真实证 / 基于智能体 / 微观模拟

– Project code: with “G” heading ， meaning that it is from the department mostly related to “Social Science”

– Selected catalogues: General Project, Junior Scientist Project, Regional Special Project, Key Project, Major Project, Big Research Plan

44

Plotting of the Projects

45

Papers (259) Projects

Funded project

Funding and publication

• We can not do any rigorous study with such a small data set, but from the observation it is clear that:– The trend of growth during this period is

evidenced. The average annual increase rate is about 33%, twice as much as the 16% department-wide growth rate

– There does exist a strong correlation (ρ=0.945145) between the funding and publication

– Out of the 259 papers, 209 (80.7%) are labeled with 225 NSFC funded projects

46

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

PAPER_NUM PROJECT_NUM

Correlation Coefficient = 0.945145

Initiative period

Being recognized

Getting attentions


47

Papers Funds


Outline


49

Field classification

• Since we used four data bases, the catalogues from each are not labeled in same way, though there are similarity among them– By and large, the classification from SSCI is

selected as a benchmark– The papers from SCI, CSCD or CSSCI are sorted

to the corresponding SSCI catalogues, if any, by direct translation, or

– Classified with two people’s proof-reading followed by group discussion

50

SUBJECT AREA COUNTPERCENT

(%)CUMULATIVE PERCENT(%)

MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 58 22.39 22.39

ECONOMICS 58 22.39 44.79

BUSINESS, FINANCE 49 18.92 63.71

BUSINESS 30 11.58 75.29

SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY

21 8.11 83.40

GEOGRAPHY 15 5.79 89.19

POLITICAL SCIENCE 7 2.70 91.89

INFORMATION SCIENCE & LIBRARY SCIENCE

6 2.32 94.21

EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH

5 1.93 96.14

SUM 249 96.10

51

“Hot” Fields of ACSS in China

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

MANAGEMENT

ECONOMICS

BUSINESS, FINANCE

BUSINESS

SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY

52


53


• MANAGEMENT SCIENCE– OM/SCM/Logistics– Risk Management– Systems Modeling/Optimization – Information Systems– Knowledge Management


• ECONIMICS– Macro-economic systems modeling and

simulation– Economic theory (game, market structure,

etc.)– Energy Market/Resource Pricing– Low-carbon/Green Economy– Industrial Economics– Economic Policy– Agricultural Economics

54


55

• BUSINESS, FINANCE– Market Modeling /Simulation– Asset Pricing– Market Micro-structure– Behavior Finance– Risk Management– Investment Strategy– Financial Policy


56

• BUSINESS– e-Business/e-Commerce– Strategy Management– Organizational Behavior– Marketing Strategy– Business Communication– Innovation Management/Product Development


57

• SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY– Social Issues Modeling/Simulation/Forecasting– E-Government– Communication and Emergency Management– Ecosystems and Population/Urbanization– Public Health Care Systems

Outline


58

Author Title Year

Citatio

n

Arthur W, Holland J. LeBaron B, et al

Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectations in An Artificial Stock Market

1997 25

S.-H. Chen, C.-H. Yeh

Evolving Traders and the Business School with Genetic Programming A New Architecture of the Agent Based Artificial Stock Market

2001 13

LeBaron B, Arthur W B, Palmer R

Time Series Properties of an Artificial Stock Market

1999 13

LeBaron B Agent based computational finance 2000 10J M Epstein, R L Axtell

Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom up

1996 10

Jennings N R, Sycara K, Wooldrige M

A Roadmap of Agent Research and Development

1998 9

LeBaron B Agent Based Computational Finance Suggested Readings and Early Research

2000 8

Key references: international

59

Author Title Year

Citatio

nD.J. Watts ， S.H. Strogatz

Collective Dynamics of Small World Networks

1998 8

Challet D ， Zhang YC Emergence of cooperation and organization in an evolutionary game

1997 8

Torrens PM ， Benenson I

Geographic automata systems 2005 8

BASU N Growing a Market Economy 1997 8Swaminathan JM ， Smith SF ， Sadeh NM

Modeling supply chain dynamics: A multiagent approach

1998 8

Lux T, Marchesi M Scaling and criticality in a stochastic multi agent model of a financial market

1999 8

Charles M Macal ， Michael J North

Tutorial on Agent-based Modeling and Simulation

2005 8 60

Key references: international (cont.)

Author Title Year

Citation

Zhang Wei; Zhang Yongjie; Xiong Xiong; Jin Xi

Bsv investors versus rational investors: An agent-based computational finance model

2006

6

Xu Guozhi Systems Science (in Chinese) 2000

5

Ping Lou, Zu-de Zhou, You-Ping Chen and Wu Ai

Study on multi-agent-based agile supply chain management

2004

5

Xia Li & Anthony Gar-On Yeh

Modelling sustainable urban development by the integration of constrained cellular automata and GIS

2000

5

Fulong Wu Calibration of stochastic cellular automata: the application to rural-urban land conversions

2002

561

Key references: Chinese

Author Title Year Citation

Wang Feiyue Computational Experiments for Behavior Analysis and Decision Evaluation of Complex Systems

2009 4

Xue Ling, Yang Kaizhong

Researh on Urban Evolution Using Agent-Based Simulation (in Chinese)

2009 4

Zhang Weiying Game Theory and Information Economics (in Chinese)

1996 4

Xia Li & Anthony Gar-On Yeh

Data mining of cellular automata's transition rules

2004 4

Xia Li, Jinqiang He & Xiaoping Liu

Ant intelligence for solving optimal path-covering problems with multi-objectives

2009 4

62

Key references: Chinese (cont.)

Author Title Year

Citation

Zhang Wei; Zhang Yongjie; Xiong Xiong; Jin Xi

Bsv investors versus rational investors: An agent-based computational finance model

2006

6

Wang FeiyueComputational Experiments for Behavior Analysis and Decision Evaluation of Complex Systems

2004

4

Zhang Tong; Brorsen B. Wade

Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm for Agent-Based Artificial Markets

2009

3

Li Xia; Liu XiaopingEmbedding sustainable development strategies in agent-based models for use as a planning tool

2008

3

Zhou WeiXing; Sornette Didier

Importance of positive feedbacks and overconfidence in a self-fulfilling Ising model of financial markets

2006

3

Gao Baojun; Xuan Hui; Dai Huiyu

An Agent based Stock Market Simulation Model (In Chinese)

2005

3

Zhang Jiang; Li Xuewei Artificial Societies - Agent Based Social Simulation (in Chinese)

2005

3

Liu Wencai; Liu Bao; Wang Qiwen; Zhang Wei

Review on some research advances in Agent based financial market models (in Chinese)

2003

3 63

Key references: among the 259 papers

Outline


64

Conclusions

• As a promising direction, ACSS is receiving more and more attention, not only from Chinese scholars, but also from the funding agencies

• The publication and their citations, as well as funding, increased significantly in recent 5 years

• The publication on international journals has been growing much faster than Chinese ones since 2007

• A group of research institutes have their focused areas in ACSS

65

Conclusions

• Considering the growth of papers and citations, though we do have similar trends with the international ones, but at least 3 to 4-year behind

• The overall citation of the papers is still quite low and their major references are from outside world, meaning that the originality of the works need to be improved further

• More international communication, say, publications on core journals and attending major international conferences, is needed

66

Conclusions

• Comparing with natural science, social science is so-called “context-dependent”

• To some extent, most of the well-spread knowledge in this part of science, more or less developed from “aggregated data”, is based the very fundamental assumptions derived from the past world, explicitly or not

• So, when the context changes due to emerging economies, ICT, globalization, etc., some of the microscopic, but critical, assumptions change accordingly, leaving the existing knowledge “abnormal”

67

Conclusions

• It is the need for developing new knowledge under this new “context”, including “Chinese Context” of course, that calls for further research in ACSS

• Base on this understanding and the demand from society, industry and government , as well as the previous works and achievements by Chinese scholars in this field, I am quite optimistic about the growth of ACSS study in China:

68

Conclusions• International collaboration will be deeply

enhanced• The platform for domestic scholarly

communication, say core journals in Chinese and domestic association(s) will emerge

• The community will team up further and be more focused

• Interdisciplinary works, and collaborations with industry & government will become more popular

• More generalizable and original knowledge will be derived from some local issues

69

Thank You!

Wei ZHANGCollege of Management and EconomicsTianjin UniversityTianjin, 300072China

[email protected] +86-22-27891308

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mailto:[email protected]

agent-based computational social science in china ： its present state and future prospects wei...

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