Agile Estimationor

What Empirical Process Control Has to Do with Onions

Ilya Rosenfeld | Fall 2012

Welcome

"If you want a guarantee, buy a toaster".

-- Clint Eastwood

"Entropy increases. Period."

-- Physics

What's really the problem?Toasters

○ inputs: well-defined○ outputs: same○ uncertainty in environment: low○ planning: top-down○ control process: repeatable, defined○ "(mass) production"

Software○ inputs: poorly defined○ outputs: different○ uncertainty in environment: high○ planning: bottom-up○ control "practices": empirical, adaptive○ "evolution", "customization"

1962 2012

1962 2012

The Planning "Onion"

inverse of the time frontier

estimation accuracy

● estimation is integral to planning● periodic to the core● keeping it real

"How long is it?"

How long does it take to paint the house?

How long does it take to build a piece of software?

"How big is it?"

Ok..How big is the house?

● rank by "size" (or complexity)● calibrate "1"● it's all relative● uncertainty increases with size● program for uncertainty

Story Points● measure of SIZE (ex: 1+3+2+2+5=13)● independent of time (or velocity)

What is "it", anyway?

informed by:

Agile project mgt

business planmarket researchstrategic clients

operations ...

PRODUCTS

EPICS, THEMES

STORIES

FEATURES

TASKS

comprised of:

planning cycles stuff to estimate

Rinse and repeat.. recursively

● regularity over "process"○ habits, ceremonies, rituals

● agree to disagree○ negotiate the gaps away○ converge

● estimating size○ expert opinion, analogy, disaggregation

● closing the loop○ validation, re-calibration

● the books○ access○ internal transparency○ external transparency

Head Games● Where in the Planning Onion are we?● cross-functional-ness● uncertainty and estimation scales

○ Fibonacci○ T-Shirt Sizes○ linear○ ...

● which way to split and slice (stories)○ "vertically": CRUD, MVC, data, ...○ "horizontally": research, bootstrap, dev, test, doc, depl,

oversight/PM, ...○ ...

● group poker● solo poker

Versus

● estimation vs planning● measurement vs estimation● ideal days vs elapsed duration● ideal time vs focused time● story points vs ideal days● estimates vs commitments● projections vs forecasts● estimates vs quotes● velocity vs productivity● pull vs push systems

"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." --Niels Bohr

Stuff to ReadGood basics on roles, splitting and estmation: http://bit.ly/11PHk

"Agile Estimation and Planning" by Mike Cohn: http://amzn.to/2Bue0T - free chapter on estimation: http://bitly.com/zzetUf

"Management 3.0" by Jurgen Appelo (big picture): http://amzn.to/V3RIq8

Planning Poker Cards: http://bitly.com/cAPmxN

Planning Poker Apps: http://bit.ly/Suhe5g

"How big?..How long?.. "