agile estimation and planning

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Presentation given at XMPie about the topic. Done as a part of the ILTechTalks initiative.

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  • 1.Agile estimation and planning Elad Sofer- Agile coach. blog -http:// blog.thescrumster.com LinkedIn -http://www.linkedin.com/in/eladsofer

2. 3. Reduce risk Reduce uncertaintyBetter decision making Establishing trustcampaigns (marketing) 4. How to estimate this task ? 5. Persistence of time 6. How long will it take to

  • Read the bible
  • Drive to Paris ?
  • Solve a math equation ?
  • Add support for LDAP ?

7. 34.4 8. Estimate tasks in relative size

  • We are not good in measuring absolute values.
  • We are good in comparing things.
  • We have the basic math skills (or a calculator).
  • High accuracy has a high toll.
  • Estimates become commitments
  • Time is not persistent.

9. Story points

  • Name is derived from user stories.
  • They reflect the bigness of a user story.
    • How hard it is ?
    • How risky it is ?
    • How much of it there is ?
  • Relative values matters.
  • Unitless.
  • Point values include uncertainty.
  • Easy and quick
    • A little effort helps a lot
    • A lot of effort helps a little more

10. Estimation techniques

  • Expert opinion
  • Analogy
  • Educated guess
  • Disaggregating
  • Planning poker

11. Planning poker

  • Each person gets a deck of cards.
  • The item to be estimated is read to all.
  • Attendants ask clarifications for the item.
  • Each person selects a card and puts it on the table facing down.
  • When everyone is done, cards are exposed.
  • If the estimations do not match a short discussion is done. -> Goto 4.
  • Handle next item.

12. Why planning poker works ?

  • Those who do the work estimate it.
  • Emphasizes relative estimation
  • Estimates are within one order of magnitude.
  • Reduces anchoring - Everyone's opinion is heard.

13. Specification length

  • One page spec
  • Group A
  • 7 Pages spec
  • Group B

173 hours 117 hours 14. Irrelevant information

  • Group A
  • added irrelevant details:
    • End user desktop apps
    • Usernames & passwords
    • Etc.
  • Group B

39 hours 20 hours 15. Extra requirements

  • Requirements 1-4
  • Group A
  • Requirements 1-5
  • Group B

4 hours 4 hours

  • Requirements 1-5 but toldto estimate 1-4 only
  • Group C

8 hours 16. Given anchor

  • Group A
  • Customer thinks 500
    • customer has no technical knowledge
    • Dont let the customer influence you
  • Group B

555 hours 456 hours

  • Same as Bcustomer thinks 50
  • Group C

99 hours 17. Why planning poker works ?

  • Those who do the work estimate it.
  • Emphasizes relative estimation
  • Estimates are within one order of magnitude.
  • Reduces anchoring - Everyone's opinion is heard.
  • Modeled for open discussion forces thinking.
  • Its quick & fun !

18. 19. Much Work Remains to be Done before we can announce Our Total Failure to Make any progress 20. Why traditional planning fails

  • Plan is not adaptive.
  • Focus on activities Not on features
    • Never finish early.
    • Lateness is passed down.
    • Dependencies.
  • Plan is not priority driven.
    • Higher risk.
    • Lower ROI.
  • Belief that customers will not change
  • Estimates become commitments.

21. What makes planning agile ?

  • Planning Is not considered as a phase in the project
  • Focus on business priorities
  • Deliver something each iteration.
  • Changes are expected, embrace change.
  • Plans are easily correctable.
  • Plan by feature not by activity.
  • Clear definition of progress
    • 50% = 50% of features complete.
  • And

22. Its better to be roughly right than precisely wrong. [John Maynard Keynes [ 23. Continuous planning Daily Iteration Release Product Portfolio Strategy 24. First, We need a backlog As a user I want to perform stock operations. As a manager I want a report of customer with overdraft.As a manager I want balance report As a user I want to see last transactions. As a user I want to see my balance As a user I want to log in securely. Risk Estimate Value Story 25. Add value 30 As a user I want to perform stock operations. 80 As a manager I want a report of customer with overdraft.60 As a manager I want balance report 70 As a user I want to see last transactions. 100 As a user I want to see my balance 10 As a user I want to log in securely. Risk Estimate Value Story 26. Estimate & asses risk HIGH BIG 30 As a user I want to perform stock operations. Low 13 80 As a manager I want a report of customer with overdraft.Medium BIG 60 As a manager I want balance report Medium 20 70 As a user I want to see last transactions. Low 8 100 As a user I want to see my balance Low 5 10 As a user I want to log in securely. Risk Estimate Value Story 27. Prioritization guidelines 28. Now it is prioritized We are ready Low 8 100 As a user I want to see my balance Low 5 10 As a user I want to log in securely.Medium BIG 60 As a manager I want balance report Low 13 80 As a manager I want a report of customer with overdraft.HIGH BIG 30 As a user I want to perform stock operations. Medium 20 70 As a user I want to see last transactions. Risk Estimate Value Story 29. Sprinting

  • Before the sprint:
    • The team committed to the following:
      • As a user I want to see mybalance
      • As a user I want to see lasttransactions.
    • Creates the sprint backlog:
      • They break it down into tasks.
      • They estimate the time foreach task.

30. Tracking progress (day 1) To Do In work Done 31. Tracking progress (day 3) To Do In work Done 32. Tracking progress (day 6) To Do In work Done 33. Tracking progress (End) To Do In work Done 34. When the Sprint has finished:

  • We now know thecurrentvelocity.
    • Only DONE items count.
  • We can now start andrealistically estimatethe expectedprogress.

35. Velocity

  • How many points can the team(s) complete in one iteration.
  • Easy to measure.
  • Fixes estimation errors.
  • Easily reflects the project status.
  • Primary parameter in planning.

36. How to calculate time ? D V T 37. Burn down charts

  • Increase visibility
  • Easy to understand.
  • Updated automatically& immediately.
  • Usually used onrelease & sprint level.

38. So what will it be ? vs + + 39. 40. For more information:

  • Read this book

And visit my blog