agileevm webinar 0611 new templatev2 - collab i have been helping teams and organizations in...
TRANSCRIPT
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Information For Good Decision Making
AgileEVM
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2
I have been helping teams and
organizations in transitioning to agile
methods as a hands-on ScrumMaster,
Agile coach and Scrum trainer since 2003.
My focus is on coaching teams and
organizations to effectively provide value
to key stakeholders and customers
through the frequent delivery of software.
My passion lies in helping organizations
plan and implement effective Agile
transformations.
Tamara Sulaiman Runyon, PMP, CST
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Webinar Perspective – the audience
Copyright © 2010 CollabNet, Inc. | www.collab.net
Participants new to Agile & Scrum, and familiar with Earned Value Management (EVM)
Participants new to EVM, and familiar with Agile and Scrum
Participants new to both Agile and EVM
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Webinar Objectives: To Discuss
Copyright © 2010 CollabNet, Inc. | www.collab.net
• What AgileEVM is• Why we want to use AgileEVM• What is needed to calculate
AgileEVM• How to analyze the results of
AgileEVM• Where AgileEVM adds value• When AgileEVM should be
applied• How AgileEVM can be applied
at the portfolio level
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First: What is Earned Value Management?
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Why Use EVM?
EVM integrates the areas of technical performance,
schedule and cost.
“The single most important benefit of
employing earned value is the cost efficiency
readings it provides.”
6 Copyright © 2010 CollabNet, Inc. | www.collab.net
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Why Use EVM – there’s more…
7 Copyright © 2010 CollabNet, Inc. | www.collab.net
EVM provides early warning of performance problems while there is
time for corrective action.”
Validity of method – well known, PMI standard, in
use for Project Management for over 40
years.
Business Reasons to Use EVM
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Earned Value Management - A Time Line
8 Copyright © 2010 CollabNet, Inc. | www.collab.net
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PMI - EVM Community of Practice
9 Copyright © 2010 CollabNet, Inc. | www.collab.net
Conferences, Certification exams…. They’ve got it all!
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Traditional EVM can get complicated
10 Copyright © 2010 CollabNet, Inc. | www.collab.net
ANSI EIA 748 EVMS Standards
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Why Use Agile Software Methods?
11 Copyright © 2010 CollabNet, Inc. | www.collab.net
Amr Elssamadisy – Patterns of Agile Practice Adoption – The Technical Cluster
Reduce time to market
Increase value to market
Increase quality to market
Increase flexibility
Increase visibility Reduce Costs
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Scrum: A Quick Review
2Copyright © 2010 CollabNet, Inc. | www.collab.net
30 days
24 hours
Backlog tasksexpandedby team
Potentially ShippableProduct Increment
Release PlanProduct Backlog
Prioritized Featuresdesired by Customer
Sprint BacklogFeatures assigned to Sprint estimated by team
Vision
Jan May Aug Dec
Product Roadmap
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Agile Performance Tracking?
13 Copyright © 2010 CollabNet, Inc. | www.collab.net
“The challenge is to create Agile...…implementations of the EVM
principle…” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_value_management
AgileEVM = Traditional EVM & Scrum
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Where Does AgileEVM Add Value?
14 Copyright © 2010 CollabNet, Inc. | www.collab.net
Communication Decision Making
Portfolio Level Visibility
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Why Use AgileEVM?
Add a cost component to Agile metrics
Balance the needs of all stakeholders
Optimize the value of releases
Make better business decisions
15 Copyright © 2010 CollabNet, Inc. | www.collab.net
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AgileEVM Metrics
16 Copyright © 2010 CollabNet, Inc. | www.collab.net
Schedule Performance Index (SPI)
Cost Performance Index (CPI)
Velocity per Sprint
Earned Value vsPlanned Value
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A Couple of Notes:
• Earned Value Metrics track progress against plan; they do not track earned business value.
• AgileEVM does not replace Agile Burn-down, Burn-up charts, or any other metric you are currently using.
17 Copyright © 2010 CollabNet, Inc. | www.collab.net
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Defining the initial Release Baseline
Release Baseline
# of Planned Sprints
Sprint Lengths
Budget At Complete Planned
Release Story Points
Start Date
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Measuring Progress
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Story Points Completed
Story Points Added
Actual Cost
Current Sprint
• To Date
• (Can be a negative number)
• To Date• (must match the
time period the work was performed
• To Date
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20 Copyright © 2010 CollabNet, Inc. | www.collab.net
AC – Actual Cost
PV – Planned Value
EV – Earned Value
EAC –Estimate at Complete
CPI – Cost Performance
Index
SPI –Schedule
Performance Index
“AgileEVM is like Death by Acronym”T. Perry, SolutionsIQ
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AgileEVM – Basic Equations
• Planned Value• = Expected % complete * BACPV• Earned Value• = Actual % complete * BACEV• Cost Performance Index• = EV / ACCPI• Schedule Performance Index• = EV / PVSPI
21 Copyright © 2010 CollabNet, Inc. | www.collab.net
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Foundation for AgileEVM – Percent Complete
22 Copyright © 2010 CollabNet, Inc. | www.collab.net
The key: 0% or 100% complete ruleThe key: 0% or 100% complete rule
Actual Percent Complete = Story
points completed/Total story points planned
Expected Percent Complete = Number of Sprints completed/Total
Sprints planned
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An Example
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Basic Data:
• Budget at Complete = $175,000• Planned Sprints = 4• Completed 1 Sprint• Planned Story Points = 200• Story Points Completed = 40• Actual Cost = $65,000
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Step 1: Calculate the Expected % Complete
The number of sprints completed divided by the number of sprints planned in the release.Therefore: We’ve completed 1 sprints. We have 4 sprints planned in the release. 1/4 = .25 = 25%
Expected Percent Complete = 25% or .25
24 Copyright © 2010 CollabNet, Inc. | www.collab.net
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Step 2: Calculate The Actual % Complete
Story points done/ Story points planned for the release
Example: We have 200 story points planned in the release. At the end of Sprint 1 we have completed 40 story points.
Actual % Complete - 40/200 =.2 = 20%Actual Percent Complete = 20% or 0.2
25 Copyright © 2010 CollabNet, Inc. | www.collab.net
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Calculating the Earned Value (EV)
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EV = .2 *175000 = $35,000
Actual percent complete = 20%,BAC = $175,000
Multiply Actual % Complete by total budget to calculate Earned Value (EV)
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CPI: Earned Value and Actual Cost
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What does it mean if EV is higher than your
Actual cost? EV>AC ?
What does it mean if Actual Cost is higher
than your Earned Value?
AC>AC?
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Calculating Planned Value (PV)
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PV = .25 * 175000 = $43,750
Expected % Complete = 25%, BAC = $175,000
Multiply EPC times the budget to calculate Planned Value (PV)
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SPI : Earned Value and Planned Value
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So if the Earned Value is less than
the Planned Value?
EV < PV?
What if the Earned Value is equal or
more than the Planned Value?
EV=>PV?
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The CPI & SPI Measuring Actual Performance
If: CPI > 1 CPI = 1 CPI < 1
That Means:
Under Budget
On Budget
Over Budget
If: SPI > 1 SPI = 1 SPI < 1
That Means Ahead of Schedule
On Schedule
BehindSchedule
30
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Calculating the Cost Performance Index (CPI)
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Ideal is CPI = 1
CPI = 35,000/65,000 = .53
CPI = EV/AC
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Calculating the Cost Performance Index (CPI)
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Ideal is SPI = 1
SPI = 35,000/43,750 = 0.8
SPI = EV/PV
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Predicting Estimate At Complete
EAC = $263,000+65,000 = $328,000
ETC = [(1/.53)*($175,000 -35,000) = $263,200
IF: Actual Cost =$ 65,000 Budget = $175,000EV = $35,000 & CPI = .53
Given: ETC = 1/CPI *(Budget – EV)
Given: EAC = AC + ETC
33 Copyright © 2010 CollabNet, Inc. | www.collab.net
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Our Example:
How are we doing?•BAC = $175,000•EV = $35,000•PV = $43,750 •AC = $65,000 •CPI = 53%•SPI = 80% &•EAC = 328,200
34 Copyright © 2010 CollabNet, Inc. | www.collab.net
We need to make some changes! Fortunately, we found out early…..therefore…
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What If We Made Some Changes?
• If we remove scope – reduce the planned story points to 160 points, then•Our EV becomes $43,750.•Our CPI becomes 67%•Our SPI becomes 1.00 – we will finish this work on time.
•EAC = $196,250
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When Should AgileEVM Be Applied?
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Actual Costs
Boundaries
Equality
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AgileEVM at the Program Level
Team Budget PV EV AC CPI SPI Estimate at Complete
Team A $ 300 $ 150 $ 150 $ 150 1 1 $ 300
Team B $1,000 $ 575 $ 500 $ 625 .8 .86 $ 1,250
Team C $ 800 $ 175 $ 200 $ 180 1.11 1.14 $ 720
Program Totals
$ 2,100 $ 900 $ 850 $ 955 .89 .94 $ 2,360
37 Copyright © 2010 CollabNet, Inc. | www.collab.net
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38 Copyright © 2011 CollabNet, Inc. Portions used with permission. All Rights Reserved.38
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Questions?
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We have time for questions!
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Thank you!
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Thank You for Attending!
For other follow up questions, please feel free to email me at [email protected]