agri commodity reports for the week (3rd - 7th january - 2011)

8/8/2019 Agri Commodity Reports for the Week (3rd - 7th January - 2011)

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WEEKLYREPORTS

Global Research Limited

Where Market Can MoveNext Week...

A G R I

SPICES TRADEUP ON LIMITEDARRIVALS !

| 03rd Jan 2011 - 07th Jan 2011



AGRI

Weekly Reports

w w w . c a p i t a l v i a . c o m

A g r i R e p o r t

2

Technical Analysis

JEERA

Fundamental Overview

Reasons for MovementJEERA TRADE UP ON LIMITED ARRIVALS

Sjeera showed a high volatility as reports of rains in some areas in

Rajasthan had a bullish impact on the market sentiments. Prices may

trade range bound with negative bias due to weak demand from the

overseas and domestic buyers. However, any disturbances in weather

in Jeera growing areas particularly Gujarat and Rajasthan will however

provide support to the prices in the short term. Too much cold and rains

in the growing areas will spoil the standing crop. In medium to long

term (January end onwards), Jeera prices will depend on the demand

from the overseas and domestic buyers and sowing progress in the

major Jeera growing areas particularly Rajasthan and Gujarat. Jeera

prices will also take cues from the price parity of major origins

particularly Syria and Turkey in the international market. Jeera prices in

the intraday will trade sideways due dull trades at the domestic market.

In the short term (till mid of January), trend will depend on Jeera price

parity of various origins in international market and stocks of Jeera with

local stockists. In the medium to long term (January end onwards)

prices are likely to take cues from demand from the overseas and

domestic buyers and production estimates in India.

Daily Chart

Weekly Pivots

Script Levels

R3 16388

R2 15459R1 14962

PP 14530

S1 14033

S2 13601

S3 12672 F i g u r e : 1

J e e r a

Demand from the overseasSowing progress in India

Jeera was bearish for most part of theprevious week, but we saw some

short covering coming at the end ofthe week. For the next week Jeerahas resistance at 14800 and supportat 14100.

Market Overview

Jeera is in a consolidation phaseand one should use the strategy of

buying on lower levels. If in thecoming week Jeera sustains abovethe level of 14800 then we canexpect the level of 15050, and if itsustains below 14100 we can seethe level of 13800.

Strategy



AGRI

Weekly Reports


A g r i R e p o r t

GUARSEED

3

Technical Analysis


Reasons for MovementGUARSEED TRADES UP ON SHORT COVERING

he Guar seed and Gum futures traded positive throughout the week

and closed almost above the opening of the week. In spot markets

Tthe arrivals are gradually decreasing to 55,000 bags. The demand

from the millers is supporting the prices but slack export demand is

restricting any steep gains. The derivative analysis supports the bearish

outlook. Full utilization of the mill capacities across Haryana and Rajasthan

has resulted in higher production of churi and korma. However the demand

is slack for the churi and korma which is affecting the prices. Subdued spot

activities and the slack export demand are expected to exert pressure on

the prices. Buying from the Guar gum millers across the spot can prevent

any steep fall in the prices. Expectations of increase in the crude oil

extraction in the short term shall support the uptrend in prices in near term.

As on 29th December Guar inventory at NCDEX warehouses 57541 tons.

Daily Chart

Weekly Pivots

Script Levels

R3 2609

R2 2523

R1 2478

PP 2437

S1 2392

S2 2351

S3 2265 F i g u r e : 1

J e e r a

Demand from the millersSlack export demand

Last week Guarseed was in a narrowrange but we saw some good buyingcoming at lower levels. For the nextweek Guarseed has resistance at2515 and support at 2330.

Market Overview

For next week in Guar seed tradersshould go for selling at higher levelsstrategy, if Guar seed sustainsbelow the level of 2370 we can seethe level of 2325, and above 2515 itcan touch the level of 2560.

Strategy



AGRI

Weekly Reports


A g r i R e p o r t

SOYABEAN

4

Technical Analysis


Reasons for MovementSOYBEAN GAINS ON FRESH BUYING

he Soybean futures on Indian exchanges traded on a positive

note in the last week reversing its previous week trend on

Temergence of fresh buying. Indian market opened on a weaker

note on extended profit booking and moving in line with weak overseas

market. However, a recovery in international market on supply crunch

led the Indian market to recover and end the week in green. Indian

traders bought futures anticipating more export demand for Indian Soy

meal from South East Asian countries following likely crop loss in

Argentina. Soybean futures are expected to advance its gains in the

next week follow through buying and taking support from global

market. CBOT Soybean futures ended flat after witnessing both sided

trading. However, year-end profit taking limited the gains. On

domestic front, traders and investors are likely to advance their buyingon expectation of robust meal export demand from South East Asian

countries. With the likely crop loss in Argentina due to hot and dry

weather condition, India is likely to get an advantage of exporting more

meal. Higher crush margin is also supporting the uptrend in the market.

Daily Chart

Weekly Pivots

Script Levels

R3 2562

R2 2468

R1 2429

PP 2374

S1 2335

S2 2280

S3 2186 F i g u r e : 1

J e e r a

Fresh buyingRobust mea l expo r tdemand

Last week Soybean was in a bullishphase and was not sustaining atlower levels but we saw some profitbooking coming on the last day of theweek. For the next week Soybean hasresistance at 2435 and support at2320.

Market Overview

Soybean is in an upwardconsolidation phase on charts andone should look for buyingopportunities at lower levels, ifSoybean sustains above the level of2435 we can see the level of 2490,and on the down side if it sustainsbelow the level of 2320 we can seeSoybean at 2270 level.

Strategy



AGRI

Weekly Reports


A g r i R e p o r t

CHANA

5

Technical Analysis


CHANA ZOOMS ON EXTENDED BUYING

improved buying at support levels led prices to end in green last

week. However, positive reports on sowing progress may cap the

Lupside in the coming weeks. Steep decline in Australia chick pea

production has delayed the shipments thereby supporting Chana

prices at the domestic market during the last 2-3 weeks. Chana is

close substitute of Chickpea and prices are interdependent. Overall

acreage is under Chana is expected higher due to increased MSP and

better soil moisture level. Thus, long term trend would depend on the

sowing figures, weather conditions and the production estimates.

Chana prices may remain weak in the next weak due to increase sowing

of Rabi Pulses. In the short to medium term (one month), Price gains

may be capped on positive reports of sowing and rising arrivals of

Kharif pulses. Long term trend in Chana futures may depend on the

reports sowing of Rabi Pulses which is presently expected to be higher

due to increase in MSP of Pulse. Also, weather during the crop

development period may be crucial for the deciding the further trend of

Chana futures.

Daily Chart

Last week Chana was in a tight rangebut it was not sustaining at lowerlevels and we saw good buyingcoming at lower levels. For thecoming week Chana has resistanceat 2595 and support at 2440.

Market Overview

Overall trend of Chana is ofconsolidation and one should go forbuying at lower levels strategy in it.For the coming week if Chanasustains above 2590 level we cansee it at 2630 and below 2440 wecan expect the level of 2405.

Strategy

Reasons for Movement

Weekly Pivots

Script Levels

R3 2738

R2 2636

R1 2598

PP 2534

S1 2496

S2 2432

S3 2330 F i g u r e : 1

J e e r a

Positive reports on sowingprogress

Increase in MSP of Pulse



AGRI

Weekly Reports


A g r i R e p o r t

6

Symbol Exch-ange

ExpiryDate

CommodityName

Price Unit PreviousClose

Open LowHigh Close Qty.Traded

Net OpenInterest

WeeklyTurnOver(Rs. in Lakhs)

JEERAUNJHA NCDEX 20-JAN-11 JEERA RS/QUINTAL 14022 14099 1409915028 14465 38472 443 10605 51,752.23

Weekly Market Update

PPRMLGKOC NCDEX 20-JAN-11 PEPPER RS/QUINTAL 21957 22049 2204923175 22939 44126 982 9495 85,422.56

TMCFGRNZM NCDEX 20-Apr- 11 TURMERIC RS/QUINTAL 10622 10742 1014811010 10270 19405 -352 6360 19,088.35

GARSEDJDR NCDEX 20-JAN-11 GUARSEED RS/QUINTAL 2480 2467 23812503 2415 844420 -65 168190 151,997.43

GARGUMJDR NCDEX 18-FEB-11 GUARGUM RS/QUINTAL 6301 6295 62906612 6510 59850 39220209 31,834.87

CHARJDDEL NCDEX 20-JAN-11 CHANA RS/QUINTAL 2525 2524 24712573 2560 278550 35 110270 64,039.32

SYBEANIDR NCDEX 18-FEB-11 SOYBEAN RS/QUINTAL 2382 2380 23802484 2464 569180 82 251610 123,229.06

SYOREFIDR NCDEX 20-JAN-11 SOY OILREFINED

RS/10KGS 607.75 610 610643.4 639.4 820770 31.65 99780 450,991.02

RMSEEDJPR NCDEX 20-JAN-11 RAPE MUS-TARD SEED

RS/20KGS 567.15 569 568.2582.2 569.4 393291 2.25 133160 99,944.76

COCUDAKL NCDEX 20-JAN-11 COTTONSEED

OILCAKE

RS/QUINTAL 1001 1005 9921026 1024 205450 23 73570 18,753.36

GURCHMUZR NCDEX 20-JAN-11 GUR RS/40KGS 998 998 9661002 969 23070 -29 9650 5,262.40

POTATO NCDEX 18- Mar -11 POTATO RS/QUINTAL 614.9 616 603.3629.7 610.5 82455 -4.4 21870 4,581.99

KAPASSRNR NCDEX 29-Apr- 11 KAPAS RS./20KG 729.8 732 727.4759.3 748.8 21766 19 6840 29,405.00

WHTSMQDELI NCDEX 20-JAN-11 WHEAT RS/QUINTAL 1331.2 1331.2 13311360 1339.6 15820 8.4 7130 2,094.90

MENTHA OIL MCX 31-DEC-10 MENTHA OIL RS/KG 1133.9 1125 1121.31217 1209.3 34692 75.4 5505 130060.97

CARDAMOM MCX 15- Jan -11 CARDAMOM RS/KG 1523.4 1505 14901642 1590.8 18019 67.4 1303 27362.91



AGRI

Weekly Reports


A g r i R e p o r t

7

Weekly Market Update

EXCHANGE COMMODITY CLOSING PRICE % CHANGE

NCDEX JEERA

NCDEX PEPPER

NCDEX TURMERIC

NCDEX GUARSEED

NCDEX GUARGUM

NCDEX CHANA

NCDEX SOYBEAN

NCDEX SOY OIL REFINED

NCDEX RAPE MUSTARD SEED

NCDEX COTTONSEED OILCAKE

NCDEX GUR

NCDEX POTATO

NCDEX KAPAS

NCDEX WHEAT

NCDEX MENTHA OIL

NCDEX CARDAMOM

14465

22939

10270

2433

6510

2560

2464

639.4

569.4

1024

969

610.5

748.8

1339.6

1209.3

1590.8

3.16

4.47

-3.31

0.95

3.32

1.39

3.44

5.21

0.40

2.30

-2.91

-0.72

2.60

0.63

6.65

4.42

Weekly Gainers

COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE % CHANGE

MENTHA OIL

REFINED SOYA OIL

PEPPER

31-JAN-11

20-JAN-11

20-JAN-11

1209.3

639.4

22939

6.65

5.21

4.47

Weekly Losers

COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE % CHANGE

TURMERIC

GUR

20-APR- 11

20-JAN-11

10270

969

-3.31

-2.91

POTATO 18- MAR -11 610.5 -0.72



Weekly Pivots

JEERA(JAN)

Scripts R3

AGRI

Weekly Reports


A g r i R e p o r t

8

R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

PEPPER(JAN)

TURMERIC(APR)

GUARSEED(JAN)

GUARSGUM(FEB)

CHANA(JAN)

SOYBEAN(FEB)

REFINED SOYA OIL(JAN)

MUSTARD(JAN)

COTTONSEEDOIL CAKE (JAN)

GUR(JAN)

POTATO(MAR)

KAPAS

(APR)

MENTHA OIL(JAN)

CARDAMOM(JAN)

16388.67 15459.67 14962.33 14530.67 14033.33 13601.67 12672.67

24973.00 23847.00 23393.00 22721.00 22267.00 21595.00 20469.00

12200.00 11338.00 10804.00 10476.00 9942.00 9614.00 8752.00

2609.67 2523.67 2478.33 2437.67 2392.33 2351.67 2265.67

7114.67 6792.67 6651.33 6470.67 6329.33 6148.67 5826.67

2738.67 2636.67 2598.33 2534.67 2496.33 2432.67 2330.67

2650.67 2546.67 2505.33 2442.67 2401.33 2338.67 2234.67

697.73 664.33 651.87 630.93 618.47 597.53 564.13

601.27 587.27 578.33 573.27 564.33 559.27 545.27

1082.00 1048.00 1036.00 1014.00 1002.00 980.00 946.00

1051.00 1015.00 992.00 979.00 956.00 943.00 907.00

667.30 640.90 625.70 614.50 599.30 588.10 561.70

808.97 777.07 762.93 745.17 731.03 713.27 681.37

1373.93 1278.23 1243.77 1182.53 1148.07 1086.83 991.13

1878.27 1726.27 1658.53 1574.27 1506.53 1422.27 1270.27



Disclaimer

AGRI

Weekly Reports


A g r i R e p o r t

9

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agri commodity reports for the week (3rd - 7th january - 2011)

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