Agri-Food Chain: Vulnerability and Adaptation

COP17: NBI Side Event

John Purchase

1 December 2011

Acknowledgement

• Global warming - empirical evidence

• Resultant Climate Change – higher incidence of more extreme weather phenomena, e.g. droughts, floods, heat waves, cyclones, etc.

• Impacts of climate change on agriculture and

agricultural water management uncertain.

• Effect on Food Security and the Global Food System: Biggest future shock?

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/8/8c/Global_Warming_Map.jpg

Acknowledgement

• Global warming - empirical evidence

• Resultant Climate Change – higher incidence of more extreme weather phenomena, e.g. droughts, floods, heat waves, cyclones, etc.

• Impacts of climate change on agriculture and

agricultural water management uncertain.

• Effect on Food Security and the Global Food System: Biggest future shock?

Three Key Publications

N9-911-403 D E C E M B E R 1 5 , 2 0 1 0

RAY A. GOLDBERG

DJORDJIJA PETKOSKI

MATTHEW PREBLE

LAURA WINIG

Climate Management:

The Biggest Future Shock

to the Global Food System

How vulnerable are we?

• SA generally deemed nationally food secure, but with a significant level of food insecurity at household level.

• Many definitions of food security, but the one we will use is the FAO definition:

“A situation that exists when all people, at all times,

have physical and economic access to sufficient,

safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary

needs and food preferences for an active and

healthy life”.

Components of Food Security

FOOD UTILISATION • Nutritional Value • Social value • Food safety

FOOD ACCESS • Affordability • Allocation • Preference

FOOD AVAILABILITY • Production • Distribution

• Exchange/trade

Complex concept:

Difficult to measure

and evaluate.

Stability over TIME

Food Security

Purchasing power key to access

Severity: Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

Anticipated Impact of CC • Biggest concern is impact on Production (Food

Availability), this in turn impacts Food Access & Food Utilisation:

- Water availability: rainfall, dams, aquifers, etc. - Disease interactions - High temperature stress - Cold requirement of temperate crops not met

• Need to ascertain: 1. How high is our exposure to CC? 2. How sensitive is our agro-food system to CC? 3. How good is our coping/adaptive capacity?

Main agricultural water systems that CC is expected to impact (CGIAR, 2011)

Anticipated Impact of CC • Biggest concern is impact on Production (Food

Availability), in turn impacts Food Access & Food Utilisation:

- Water availability: rainfall, dams, aquifers, etc. - Disease interactions - High temperature stress - Cold requirement of temperate crops not met

• Need to ascertain: 1. How high is our exposure to CC? 2. How sensitive is our agro-food system to CC? 3. How good is our coping/adaptive capacity?

Diagram of Food System Vulnerability (GECAFS, 2005)

Areas with >16% cropping

Source: CGIAR CCAFS, 2011

• In SA, Western Cape and Highveld (Maize Δ) an exposure

concern

• Changing patterns of production in specific regions

Rainfall CV

Source: CGIAR CCAFS, 2011

Our Challenge

How do we produce more with less, and produce fewer greenhouse gasses?

Need to still ensure food security, and value

chains need to be competitive in the global

food system.

Need holistic and integrated models across all production systems. Focus also on developing /subsistence agriculture.

Innovation and technology critical.

Innovation to address Climate Change

• Innovative Water Management (drip irrig.)

• Crop protection & Animal health/nutrition

• Fertilizers (e.g. crop rotation with legumes)

• Carbon Sequestration

• Soil Conservation

• Adjustments in Farm Practices • Adopting Good Agricultural Practices and

New Technologies (Conservation Agric.) • Insurance Mechanisms

Policy Measures • Doubt whether COP17 will provide Global Deal on

Climate Change, but some progress possible.

• Emission reduction for SA agriculture not clear, but SA’s Copenhagen Pledge comprises 34% deviation from business as usual by 2020, and 43% deviation from business as usual by 2025.

• Private sector concern: Being placed in a non-competitive situation due to the absence of a global accord. Carbon tax a further concern.

• IPAP and New Growth Path – lower C growth path.

• Agriculture will require both mitigation and • adaptation policies and strategies

Adaptation: Approach of value chains

• Issue of adaptation is critical to food value chains as impacts will not only affect business operations, but also the markets in which they operate.

• Need to enhance information regarding the opportunities and cost-effectiveness of adaptation measures, so that action can be taken based on a solid knowledge base. Good science thus important.

Adaptation: Approach of value chains

• Implications of climate change will vary, creating both business opportunities and challenges, as well as winners and losers.

• Investment in adaptation can be both “soft” (e.g. stakeholder participation, etc.) and “hard” (e.g. physical installations, etc.).

• How much adaptation might cost, and how large its benefits might be, are issues that are increasingly relevant both for governments and business.

Adaptation: Issues for Consideration

• Education on the “state of knowledge” is needed.

• Adaptation efforts need to rest on a sound economic basis.

• Analysis on the costs and benefits of adaptation in key sectors remains important.

• Business has the potential to deliver concrete solutions, but government will need to engage constructively with business.

Adaptation: Issues for Consideration

• Incentives for adaptation.

• Consider the role of public-private partnerships (PPP’s).

• Consider the role of the insurance industry.

• Financing aspects will be of key importance.

• In view of the cross-border implications,

international/regional cooperation will be essential.

Mitigation: Sector emission trends and % changes since 1990

Source: DEAT NIR, May 2009

• Globally, agriculture contributes ~14% of annual GGE,

plus 4-8% in land use changes

• N2O & CH4 : By far biggest problem (N fertilisation &

Enteric fermentation)

• Major sink for CO2, esp. forestation and soil carbon.

Way forward • Agro-food Industry committed to addressing adaptation

and mitigation of CC in a holistic approach, BUT uniqueness of industry needs to be recognized. • Require balance between incentive and punitive

approach to emission reduction. Carbon Tax threat? • Agribusiness recommends : - Support long-term innovation in clean technologies. - Utilise major potential of energy efficiency - Open trade remains important - Need to consider mitigation and adaptation of individual value chains – proper analysis NB. - Adopt environmentally sustainable land and resource practices - Important role of market-based approaches.

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For deliberation……

Given the potential cost burden of mitigation and adaptation policies, it is essential to keep an economic focus in mind when seeking for environmental

improvements.

If we do, it will go a long way to

ensuring food security.

If not,…………….

THANK YOU

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