A i lt W t dAgriculture, Water andFood Security in GCCFood Security in GCC 

CountriesCountriesAbdul-Karim Sadik

Sixth Zayed Seminary8 - 9 May 2013

A bi G lf U i it MArabian Gulf University, Manama

INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTIONGCC Countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates) are situated in an arid region of the World.

Natural oil resources in the region helped GCC Countries to achieve economic and social progress, and attain relatively high standards of living.

Limited cropland and scarce natural water resources constrained agricultural production and kept GCC countries heavily dependent on food imports.

Past GCC Food Self-Sufficiency Policies encouraged expanding the cultivated area and boosting yields, particularly so for certain staple crops such as wheat.

P t t bl hi t lb it t i i i lt l f t i t d Past notable achievements, albeit, at rising agricultural footprint and declining biocapacity of cropland and water resources to regenerate their services and absorb waste.

Advent of 2007 2008 global food crisis heightened concern over food Advent of 2007-2008 global food crisis heightened concern over food security, especially in food deficit countries.

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONDue to limited agricultural biocapacity (cropland and water resources), the cultivated area in GCC countries in 2010 did not exceed 1.8 percent of total land area.

Contribution of agriculture to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Contribution of agriculture to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) averaged about 1.4 percent, ranging between 0.07 percent in Qatar and 2.5 percent in Saudi Arabia.

The cultivated area with an average share of over 94 percent for Saudi Arabia increased from about 1.48 million HA in 1970 to about 4.14 million HA in 2000.

Area under cereal cultivation increased from 342.2 thousand HA in 1970 to 979.8 thousand HA in 1990, constituting about 27 percent f t t l lti t d (Fi 1)of total cultivated area (Figure 1).

Figure 1GCC: Area Under Cultivation

4,000

4,500

3,000

3,500

,

1 500

2,000

2,500

500

1,000

1,500

01961 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Total Arable Land & Permanent Crops Cereal Area Harvested

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONBoth expansion of area under cereal cultivation and boosting yields, increased cereal production from about 437,000 tons in 1970 to over 4 million tons in 1990.

i l i ld l d j l i l Boosting cereal yield played a major role in cereal production. Average yield in the region of 4,236 kg/HA in 1990 was the highest compared to the world average or that g p gof other regions (Figure 2).

Figure 2Cereal Yield Average (KG/ha)

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

0

1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

World Asia Africa Arab Region GCC

FOOD SELF‐SUFFICIENCYFOOD SELF‐SUFFICIENCY

GCC countries had an average self-sufficiency ratio in major food commodities of about 31 percent in 2006, ranging between 9 8 percent for Qatar and 36 5 percent for Saudi between 9.8 percent for Qatar and 36.5 percent for Saudi Arabia.

In 2010, the same ratio was almost maintained in all In 2010, the same ratio was almost maintained in all countries, but improved in Oman, and the region's average remained around 32% percent (Table 1).

Table 1Self Sufficiency in Major Food CommoditiesSelf‐Sufficiency in Major Food Commodities

(Ratio of domestic production to available quantity for consumption – in tons)

Country/Region 2006 2010

ahrain 14.24 16.39

uwait 20.35 17.51

man 37.86 42.26

atar 9.82 9.52

audi Arabia 36.51 35.51

i d A b E i 20 69 19 14nited Arab Emirates 20.69 19.14

CC average 31.45 31.68

b gi 61 68 52 34rab region 61.68 52.34Source: Arab Organization for Agricultural Development (AOAD) Agricultural Statistics Yearbooks

Self‐Sufficiency in Major Food Commodities

GCC food self-sufficiency ratio in cereal crops which GCC countries (except Bahrain) encouraged production, particularly Saudi Arabia's focus on wheat production particularly Saudi Arabia s focus on wheat production, dropped significantly from 18.25% in 2006 to 9% in 2010.

While Saudi Arabia had a self-sufficiency ratio of 23.4 and While Saudi Arabia had a self sufficiency ratio of 23.4 and 97.6 percent in total cereals and in wheat, respectively in 2006, the same ratios dropped to 11.5 and 44.4 percent, respectively, in 2010 (Table 2).

Table 2Self‐Sufficiency Ratios inSelf Sufficiency Ratios inTotal Cereals and in Wheat 

Country/Region2006 2010

Total Cereals Wheat Total

Cereals Wheat

ahrain 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

uwait 2.49 0.78 1.61 0.10

man 1.15 0.54 4.31 1.03man 1.15 0.54 4.31 1.03

atar 0.82 0.02 0.52 0.02

audi Arabia 23.44 97.56 11.51 44.44

nited Arab Emirates 0.86 0.03 1.01 0.02

CC Average 18.25 61.15 9.09 30.52rab Region 54.89 57.30 44.55 42.49rab Region 54.89 57.30 44.55 42.49urce: AOAD, Agricultural Statistics Yearbooks.

Self‐Sufficiency Ratios inSelf Sufficiency Ratios inTotal Cereals and in Wheat

Th d ti d i l lf ffi i ti i 2010 t The drastic drop in cereal self-sufficiency ratio in 2010 to only half its level in 2006 is the result of:

a sharp decline in domestic production from about 3 1 million a sharp decline in domestic production from about 3.1 million tons in 2006 to about 1.63 million tons in 2010, and

an increase in cereal imports to meet the demand of the region's population which increased by 22.5 percent in a span of 4 years.

D d li i l d ti i ll h t i S di Deep decline in cereal production, especially wheat in Saudi Arabia followed the country's decision in 2008 to phase out wheat production by 2016.

AGRICULTURAL SUSTAINABILITYAGRICULTURAL SUSTAINABILITY

Land and water are essential for producing food crops, but more so is their productivity and sustainability which require that consumption of available resources be less than what that consumption of available resources be less than what nature can supply.

roplandropland

Cropland footprint and biocapacity measured in a common unit of global hectares (gha) are shown in Table 3.g (g )

Table 3Cropland Ecological Footprint (EF) andCropland Ecological Footprint (EF) andCropland Biocapacity (BC), (Gha/Capita)

Country/Region1961 2008

EF BC EF BCahrain 0.82 0.03 0.45 0.01a a 0.82 0.03 0. 5 0.0uwait 0.66 0.00 0.80 0.01man 0.22 0.07 0.74 0.09t 2 01 0 03 0 91 0 03atar 2.01 0.03 0.91 0.03

audi Arabia 0.39 0.21 0.80 0.18nited Arab Emirates 2.26 0.04 0.77 0.05CC 0.52 0.18 0.83 0.13ab Countries 0.44 0.30 0.55 0.29orld Average 0.55 0.55 0.59 0.57orld Average 0.55 0.55 0.59 0.57rce: Sadik, A. Chapter I in 2012 Report of Arab Forum for Environment and Development (AFED).

Cropland Ecological Footprint (EF) andCropland Ecological Footprint (EF) andCropland Biocapacity (BC), (Gha/Capita)

T bl 3 h th l d bi it (BC) d h d d Table 3 shows the cropland biocapacity (BC) and human demand on this capacity (EF) expressed in biologically productive land with world average productivity expressed in a common unit of global hectares (gha).

It is apparent in Table 3 that the deficit in cropland biocapacity in GCC increased sharply from 0 34 gha per capita in 1961 to 0 70 GCC increased sharply from 0.34 gha per capita in 1961 to 0.70 gha in 2008, compared to a similar deficit of 0.26 gha in Arab countries, and 0.02 gha in the world in 2008.

Despite an increase in GCC population between 1961 and 2008 by nearly 700 percent, cropland (BC) decreased by only about 30 percent, signifying the expansion of cropland and boosting yields, made possible by extensive use of non-renewable water resources

Water ResourcesGCC countries are the most water scarce nations in the world, with per capita average of 95 m3 compared with an average of about 840 m3 in the Arab region (Table 4) and about 7,000 m3 in the world m in the Arab region (Table 4) and about 7,000 m in the world (Figure 3).

4: Renewable Water Resources and Per Capita Share

untry/Region

Natural Water

Resources (Million M3)

Average Share (M3/Capita)

2010 2030 2050(Million M )

rain 116 92 70 64wait 20 7 5 4an 1,400 503 389 374,ar 58 33 24 22di Arabia 2,400 87 62 53ted Arab Emirates 150 20 14 12C 4,144 95 68 59b Region 300 196 840 597 474

Renewable Water Resources and Per Capita Share

Water availability at the global, regional, and national levels is critical for meeting food demand in the face of growing population and declining trend in per capita share (Figure 3)population and declining trend in per capita share (Figure 3).

Figure 3Natural Water Resources

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0

(M3/Person/Year)

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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

World Asia Africa Arab Region GCCWorld Asia Africa Arab Region GCCSource:Based on shares of world water resources and UN 2010 Population Prospects Revision.

Renewable Water Resources and Per Capita Share

Dwindling global water resources and inextricable link between water and food would not only constrain food supply but could also limit the effectiveness of the 'virtual supply, but could also limit the effectiveness of the virtual water' concept as an alternative for food security in such water stressed countries, as those of GCC.

Addressing food security under conditions of increasing water scarcity requires an approach to management and uses of water resources, conducive to sustainability of available resources and their contribution to domestic food production.p

Use of Water ResourcesUse of Water ResourcesAgriculture in GCC countries consumes 85 percent of total withdrawals from natural water resources and domestic and withdrawals from natural water resources, and domestic and industrial demand is met mostly from seawater desalination.

Irrigation places extreme pressure on water resources. It consumes g p pa high percentage of freshwater withdrawals indicating heavy reliance on fossil groundwater, and rapid depletion of both renewable and non-renewable water resources.renewable and non renewable water resources.

Stress on groundwater resources constrains prospects for increasing irrigated area, let alone meeting demand for irrigation in current areas.

Water withdrawals reveal high stress on freshwater resources averaging 740 percent for all uses (Table 5)averaging 740 percent for all uses (Table 5).

Table 5Withdrawal as Percentage of Annual FreshwaterWithdrawal as Percentage of Annual Freshwater 

Resources (2009)

Country All Uses(Percent)

Agricultural Use(Percent)

ahrain 344.8 155.0

uwait 4,500.0 2,500.0

man 92.3 82.0

atar 689.6 407.0

audi Arabia 987.5 869.0

nited Arab Emirates 2 666 6 2 213 0nited Arab Emirates 2,666.6 2,213.0

CC 740.0 633.0

rab Region 85.7 73.0g

urce: Sadik, A. Chapter 1 in 2012 Report of Arab Forum for Environment and Development (AFED).

Use of Water ResourcesUse of Water ResourcesStress on groundwater resources in Saudi Arabia in past years has led to the reduction of the area under cereal cultivation from about led to the reduction of the area under cereal cultivation from about 974,551 ha in 1990 to about 317,307 ha in 2010, and prompted the country to adopt a decree in 2008 to gradually phase out all

i i i l l b 2016water-intensive agricultural crops by 2016.

Cost of groundwater depletion could be very high. Over-extraction may increase GDP in the short-term, but it undermines a country's may increase GDP in the short term, but it undermines a country s long-term natural capital which is essential for sustainable development and well-being.

FOOD SECURITY OPTIONSFOOD SECURITY OPTIONSPressure exerted by food self-sufficiency policies on limited land and extremely scarce water resources, prompted a shift towards the broader concept of food security in GCC countries. countries.

A broader food security concept considers both domestic and external sources with due consideration to the related political, economic, social, and environmental aspects.

Question to be addressed is what are the available options, and how can they best be utilized?

FOOD SECURITY OPTIONSDomestic Sources

t i bl f iustainable farming

The paradigm for boosting yields through irrigation, excessive use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides is no excessive use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides is no longer tenable, and needs to be replaced with a new approach conducive to agricultural sustainability.

Such agricultural practices for optimizing use of fertilizers and pesticides, and the adoption of conservation and organic f d b d d dfarming need to be promoted and encouraged.

FOOD SECURITY OPTIONSDomestic Sources

aving Wateraving Water

Enhancing domestic food production through better management and utilization of available agricultural resources.

Irrigation efficiency in GCC countries is low and generally does not exceed 40 percent. Raising it to 75 percent could save about 9,000 million m3 or about 35% of irrigation usesmillion m3 or about 35% of irrigation uses.

Arriving at such savings requires not only expansion in modern irrigation methods, but more so educated farmers, well experienced g , , pin best farming and irrigation practices.

Appropriate polices, incentives, targeted subsidies and water pricing mechanisms are essential for conserving and saving water.

FOOD SECURITY OPTIONSDomestic Sources

ti W t Rugmenting Water Resources

Wastewater reuse is not fully exploited in GCC countries. Less than 50 percent of treated wastewater is directly usedLess than 50 percent of treated wastewater is directly used.

Upgrading quality of wastewater for irrigation. Kuwait's Sulaibiya high quality reclaimed water plant with a planned Sulaibiya high quality reclaimed water plant with a planned capacity of 600,000 m3/day would produce over 40 percent of water withdrawals for irrigation.

FOOD SECURITY OPTIONSRegional Food Sources

GCC countries together with other Arab countries are GCC countries, together with other Arab countries are pursuing food self-sufficiency at the regional level, through initiatives such as the Emergency Programme for Arab Food Security.

But the Arab region also has limited cropland and scarce water resources. Nevertheless, varying comparative advantages in agricultural resources provide greater potential for enhancing food self-sufficiency at the regional p g y glevel.

FOOD SECURITY OPTIONSRegional Food Sources

Prospects for increasing food production in the Arab region Prospects for increasing food production in the Arab region are conditional on utilizing the available biocapacity(cropland and water resources) productively and efficiently, while maintaining agricultural sustainability.

Crop productivity is very low. Productivity of cereals is at less than half the world average (Figure 2)than half the world average (Figure 2).

With the exception of Egypt cereal productivity in other major cereal producers (Algeria, Iraq, Morocco, Sudan, and Syria) is p ( g , q, , , y )very low at an average of 1,124 kg/ha, in 2010 (based on FAOSTAT).

FOOD SECURITY OPTIONSRegional Food Sources

B ti l i ld i th fi t i t t h th ld Boosting cereal yield in these five countries to match the world average (3,568 kg/ha) could increase cereal production by 50 million tons.

Raising irrigation efficiency from its low level of about 40 percent to an attainable level of 75 percent could save enough water in six major cereal producers (Algeria Egypt Iraq water in six major cereal producers (Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Morocco, Sudan and Syria) to produce an additional 40 million tons of cereal.

Cereal productivity coupled with irrigation efficiency could raise cereal production in the six Arab countries to about 135 million tons, sufficient to meet 90 percent of the Arab region's demand for cereal in 2030.

FOOD SECURITY OPTIONSRegional Food Sources

Additi ll it bl t t d t t f i lt ld Additionally, suitably treated wastewater for agriculture could bring the Arab region closer to self-sufficiency, for example in cereals.

Cutting down food post-harvest losses is an important aspect of food supply. It requires integrated food supply chain facilities, including processing transport storage and marketingincluding processing, transport, storage and marketing.

Increasing crop productivity, raising irrigation efficiency, and cutting down post-harvest losses also reduce input and energy food costs.

FOOD SECURITY OPTIONSOutsourcing Agriculture

C ti b t GCC t i d th d l i Cooperation between GCC countries and other developing countries with abundant land and water resources, based on mutual benefits, in the context of south-south cooperation, is an option for enhancing food security.

Such cooperation requires policies and practices to ensure agricultural sustainability, and stability of supplies at competitive prices with other sources.

FOOD SECURITY OPTIONSVirtual Water

Vi t l t i li t f f d d fi it Virtual water is an appealing concept for food-deficit countries, especially for water-intensive food commodities, but remains subject to vulnerability of global market conditions, in both supply and prices.

Food price index increased by 58 percent and cereals by 76 percent between 2005 and 2010 (Figure 4).

Figure 4FAO Food Price Index(2002 2004 100)

Cereals

(2002 – 2004 = 100)

Food

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013)March(

Food CerealsS FAO

FOOD SECURITY OPTIONSFOOD SECURITY OPTIONSGCC food and cereal import prices increased by 90 percent and 72 percent respectively over the same period (Table 6)percent, respectively over the same period (Table 6).

Table 6GCC Food

Annual Percentage

Increase

Price Percentage Increase

Average Price($/Ton)

Imports(2005 – 2010)

Increase Increase (2005-2010)Quantity Price 2005 2010

otal Food 7 0 14 2 94 0 337 654otal Food 7.0 14.2 94.0 337 654

ereals 8.4 14.4 97.0 207 405

nnual Population growth (4.8%)xcess demand for importsver population growth:otal Food 2.0

ereals 3.6

FOOD SECURITY OPTIONSFOOD SECURITY OPTIONSBased on medium variant population growth (Figure 5), and similar trends in total food and cereal imports would raise import costs at trends in total food and cereal imports would raise import costs at 2010 average prices as indicated in Figure 6.

Figure 5 Figure 6gProjected GCC Population

Food80,000

90,000

100,000

Figure 6Projected Cost of GCC Countries’ Food Imports

Food

Cereals

30 000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Mil

lion

$

2010 2020 2030 2040 20 0

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 20502010 2020 2030 2040 2050

High Variant Medium VariantFood Cereals

FOOD SECURITY OPTIONSFOOD SECURITY OPTIONSWide variations exist between GCC countries in the cost of food imports Average cereal import prices ranged between $342 per ton imports. Average cereal import prices ranged between $342 per ton for Saudi Arabia and $636 per ton for Bahrain in 2010 (Figure 7).

Figure 7Average Cereal Import Prices (2010)

597.92

635.72

ed Arab Emirates

Bahrain

Average Cereal Import Prices (2010)

403.11

545.10

561.43

Oman

Qatar

Kuwait

405

342.48

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

GCC

Saudi Arabia

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

$Per Ton

FOOD SECURITY OPTIONSFOOD SECURITY OPTIONSLikewise, import prices for wheat per ton ranged between $255 f S di A bi d $441 f K i d i $255 for Saudi Arabia and $441 for Kuwait, and rice between $ 776 for Qatar and $ 1,386 for Kuwait (Figure 8).

Figure 8Average Wheat and Rice Import Prices (2010)

0

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0

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0Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi

ArabiaUnited Arab

GCC

EmiratesWheat Rice

FOOD SECURITY OPTIONSFOOD SECURITY OPTIONS

Further analysis is needed to identify underlying factors for large variations in import costs, and

Consider establishment of a coordination mechanism for GCC sources of cereal imports to reduce costs.

Research and DevelopmentResearch and DevelopmentAgricultural Research and Development (R&D) is key to b i d i iboosting crop productivity.

A 2009 report by the World Bank, FAO and IFAD on “Improving Food Security in Arab countries” indicates that Improving Food Security in Arab countries indicates that funding in National Agricultural Research Institutions in the Arab countries is low at an average of 0.5 percent of Agricultural GDP.

Report shows that in an agricultural based country – Sudan, funding as percentage of AgGDP is very low at 0.1 percent, compared with 1.0 percent in Argentina, 1.4 percent in Brazil, and 1.6 percent in Mexico., p

Research and DevelopmentResearch and Development

An agricultural research project for enhancing food security in Arab countries carried out by International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) is supported by funding from:supported by funding from:

Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development

K it F d f A b E i D l t Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development

Islamic Development Bank

OPEC F d f I t ti l D l t OPEC Fund for International Development

Its first phase reveals very encouraging results in boosting wheat yields in Egypt Morocco Sudan Syria Tunisia and wheat yields in Egypt, Morocco, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen.

Research and DevelopmentResearch and DevelopmentYield at Demonstration fields versus Farmers' fields show considerable increase in both Irrigated and Rainfed Wheat Systemsincrease in both Irrigated and Rainfed Wheat Systems.

Average increase during 2011–2012 season ranged between 11 percent in Morocco and 58 percent in Sudan in Irrigated Systems, and between 20 percent in Rainfed Systems in Syria and 30 percent in Tunisia.

In addition to yield increases modern irrigation techniques led to water saving of 25 percent per kg of wheat for sprinkler irrigation and 45 g p p g p gpercent for drip irrigation in Gezira, Sudan, compared with surface irrigation.

E i i i lt l R&D d di i ti f lt f Expansion in agricultural R&D and dissemination of results for application at large scale is of critical importance for enhancing food production in the Arab region, and for mitigating climate change i timpact.

Managing food import price risksManaging food import price risks

Increase in storage capacity at national and regional level.

Consideration and evaluation of the feasibility of procurement of food supplies through use of financial instruments such as futures contracts and options.

Approach to Food SecurityApproach to Food SecurityInextractible links between agriculture, water, and food call for consideration of a broad range of issues.

Implementation of food security options available internally ll i li d b h l i di i l or externally is complicated by the multi-dimensional

(economic, social, environmental, and political) aspects.

No one size fits all approach but some common elements No one-size-fits-all approach, but some common elements include:

Ensuring environmentally sustainable agriculture and efficient Ensuring environmentally sustainable agriculture and efficient use of national land and water resources as well as those acquired in other countries.

Approach to Food SecurityApproach to Food Security Prioritizing options according to economic and social benefits

and minimization of supply risksand minimization of supply risks.

Adoption of agricultural policies, methods, and practices conducive to reducing footprint on land and water resources, g p ,especially non-renewable groundwater.

Ensuing public and private sector food products are quality dand price-wise competitive.

Providing all food-chain investments and facilities necessary to preserve quantity and quality of food products and their preserve quantity and quality of food products and their accessibility to consumers.

Promoting Research and Development to develop high-yielding crop varieties, farming methods, techniques and technologies to

d f d ith l t

ConclusionConclusionAgriculture in the GCC region is limited by the scarce natural endowment of cropland and waternatural endowment of cropland and water.

Use of the available resources according to biocapacity to regenerate services and absorb waste is critical for regenerate services and absorb waste is critical for sustainability to contribute to domestic food production in the long-term.

GCC countries need to evaluate food security options available with due consideration to their economic, social,

i t l d liti l tenvironmental, and political aspects.

Effective utilization of available food options can reduce risk exposure to world market supplies and pricesexposure to world market supplies and prices.