Agroforestry SystemsComplex or worse?

Claes AnderssonDept. of Energy and Environment

Chalmers University of Technology

Social

EcologicalClimate,

environment

CulturalPolitical

Economic

Agroforestry

Agroforestry is tangled up with a range of fields!

When we say ”agroforestry”, the intended delimitation isn’t obvious...

It’s very hard to consider any specific such context without experiencing a strong need to involve also the others.

Issues constantly appear to cross the boundaries between components.

Each component provides a perspective, but it’s hard to get an overview.

Examples of issues and questions

• Whose assessment counts?

• How to measure success?

• What is the real value: social, economical or biophysical?

• Maintaining values of agroforestry (small-scale etc.)

• Where does knowledge reside? Different actors, different levels...

• Compatibility between institutions and local level practices?

• How to combine multiple criteria: economic efficiency, easy to understand, etc.

Let’s begin from what appears to be a common statement, and one

that is hard to disagree with:

”Agroforestry is a complex matter!”

An exploration of what this means...

Complex

Simple

Ecosystems

Organisms

Social insects

Human societies

Space shuttle

Traffic

Corporations

Herds, shoals

This doesn’t make very much sense!

Weather

What does that mean?

Complex matters

Complex

Simple

Ecosystems

Organisms

Social insects

Human societies

Space shuttle

Traffic

Corporations

Herds, shoals

A proposed opening...

Complexity science is about

complex systems – not about

complicated systems!

Let’s see if we can make use of

this (often lightly made)

remark...

So let’s split complexity up into

these two components!

Weather

Complexity – Large numbers of simultaneously interacting

entities giving rise to emergent (often surprising) patterns

Complicatedness – Systems, typically with some function,

with an organization that demands lengty descriptions to specify

The complex and the complicated

So what about agroforestry?

or like a ?

Is it more like a...

?

Simple

Ecosystems

Organisms

CorporationsSocial insects

Human societies

Space shuttle

Herds, shoals

Traffic

Weather

Let’s separate the apples from the oranges...

Complex

Simple

Ecosystems

Human societies

Weather

Organisms

Corporations

Space shuttle

Social insectsHerds, shoals

Traffic

Complicated

...to map our example systems into a plane instead.I would place

agroforestry somewhere

around here

Many similar entities, interacting in parallel.

Organization is directly tied to the dynamics:

evaporates if dynamics ceases.

A mixture between complex and complicated

Ephemeral and inert organization blend

together

Many different(specialized) entities acting

in parallel.

Organization is inert –dynamics happen within it without much affecting it.

Complex

Simple

Ecosystems

Human societies

Weather

Organisms

Corporations

Space shuttle

Social insectsHerds, shoals

Traffic

Complicated

Wicked

A new class of systems?

Systems based theories

Co

mp

lexi

ty S

cien

ce

Narrative

theory

Agent-based modeling, complex networks, cellular automata,

evolutionary models, etc.

The humanities; historical case studies, conceptual

theory etc.

Systems theory, engineering, cybernetics, organization

theory, ecology etc.Neoclassical economics,

rational choice, optimization, etc.

Systems based theories

Co

mp

lexi

ty S

cien

ce

Narrative

theory

We seem to have to assume

simplicity in one way or the other!

The wicked – a white area on the map

But we must deal with the wicked!

Two strategies:

• Selectivitity and transplantation of problems

• Making our methods more wicked

Systems based theories

Co

mp

lexi

ty S

cien

ce

Narrative

theory

Transplantation and selectivity

Co

mp

lexi

ty S

cien

ce

Systems based theoriesD

escriptive sim

ulatio

n

Integrated Assessment Modeling

Making our methods more wicked

Some general points in summary...

My main aim with this talk is to provide food for thought

Highlights limitations in existing approaches

May point to new ways forward

Prepare us for new thoughts during our open discussions

Agroforestry is non-standard as an innovation: its deep roots in cultural evolution mean that it was never designed to begin with!

This makes it opaque: we must figure out how it works and what it can do.

It doesn’t come with a manual!

”Spontaneously” evolved cultural practices tend to be like this...

They embody the wisdom of generations upon generations, in close interaction with (adapting and adapting to) local environments

About agroforestry as an innovation

Formal approaches (economics, simulation etc.) necessary, but unlikely to be sufficient

Informal approaches (historical case studies etc): play key role for integration betweenformal models

Maybe in itself no smashing news – many are surely of these opinions.

Towards a more systematic explanation for why that is so...

... beyond stating that ”it’s complex”.

Some more details in:

Modeling, theory and understanding

Andersson, C., Törnberg, A., & Törnberg, P. (2014). Societal systems: complex or worse?

Futures, 63, 145–157.