agromet for sustainable cropping systems - wamis. · pdf filefrom unknown future weather...

Copyright CFFRC ‐ 2014

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Agromet Services for Sustainable Cropping Systems

Prof Sue Walker1,2

1Crops for the Future Research Centre, Malaysia, [email protected]

2University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South AfricaPresented at International Conference on Promoting Weather and Climate Information for Agriculture and Food Security

Antalya, Turkey, 7 to 9 April 2014


Current situation

Agricultural production not at optimal level. Farmers cannot produce at potential yield levels.This is called “yield gap”. Caused by biotic and abiotic stress.Range of stressors on cropping systems:•Many from climate variability and

from unknown future weather events.•Resulting in poor planning and

unscientific incorrect tactical decisions.


Why are Farmers Vulnerable?• Shocks or extreme events

– Floods, droughts, cyclones– Death of family member– Violence or civil unrest

• Seasons are different– El Niňo events– Delayed start of rainy season– Extreme temperatures

• Other trends or changes– Population increases & migrations – Markets demand & trade opportunities– Technology advances– Globalization effect on prices etc

IFAD‐Sustainable Livelihoods Workshop

DefinitionSustainable (adj)

• able to be maintained at a certain rate or level

• conserving an ecological balance by avoiding depletion of natural resources

Oxford Dictionary online

sustainable agricultural systems ‘maintain output in spite of major disturbances, such as caused by intensive stress or large perturbation’

Conway, 1985


For Sustainability NeedTo be:•People centered•Holistic approach / perspective•Dynamic and flexible•Built on strengths•Using micro‐macro links•In broad partnerships collaborations

IFAD, http://www.ifad.org/sla/index.htm


Want to use the agrometeorological information to provide a useful service to the agricultural industry in order to enable them to sustain their production and livelihoods while not depleting the natural resources

So what are issues in agromet services for cropping systems?

DefinitionService (noun)

• action of helping or doing work for someone

• assistance or advice given to customers

• act of assistanceOxford Dictionary online


Agrometeorological services defined• Advisories based on climate & cropping information;• Climate predictions and meteorological forecasts with added

value for agriculture and related activities, on range of time scales;

• Monitoring and early warning services connected to climate related natural disasters & warnings for pests and diseases outbreaks;

• Products of agroclimatological characterization;• Development & validation of adaptation strategies to increasing

climate variability & climate change in physical, social & economic environments of livelihood of farmers;

• Direct agromet assistance to management of natural resources for development of sustainable farming systems with technological advances;

• Advice on above & below ground microclimate management or manipulation, to improve microclimatic of growing conditions.

After Stigter (2007)


Issues to Improve Agromet Services

• Know the farming systems & their potential• Be culturally sensitive & Win trust of farmers• Develop alternatives / options / choices• Demonstrate how climate / weather info helps make good decisions


Farming Systems Thinking

a) Identify available natural resource base ‐•water, land, grazing areas & forest;•climate with that determined by altitude;•landscape, with slope; •farm size, •tenure & organization.


Farming Systems Thinking

b) Describe dominant pattern of farm activities & household livelihoods•field crops, livestock, trees, aquaculture, •hunting & gathering, processing •off‐farm activities; •main technologies used, •intensity of production & •integration of crops, livestock & other activities.


For specific farm system

• Have basket of choices = viable alternatives • Develop climate dependent choices• Use decision trees with climate info to make wise choice for each specific season


Available Alternatives Coping strategies used in farming systems depend on •available climate & weather information •feasibility of various alternative choices available to farmers when making weather or climate sensitive decisions at different levels. •flexibility of farming system & amount of risk can be exposed to while still maintain long‐term sustainability livelihoods Farmers could benefit from agromet services with both climate /weather info and added value about agricultural management related advice given with correct lead time for the specific cropping system.Wide variety of intervention options using forecasts need to be developed into Agromet extension services.

Identify weather sensitive farm activities/operations

Use Participatory methods

Sannaspos, South Africa• Frost damage to fruit trees and

spinach• Yield differences a/c plant

dates

Mujika, Zambia• Choice of maize cultivar• Time of planting = early• Cultivar X Fertiliser

• Use seasonal calendar to identify farm activities

• Use matrix to identify critical decisions and relevant climate parameters

• Hands‐on learning – role plays to illustrate long‐term rainfall

Develop alternative interventions and decision trees

• Use short‐term and seasonal rainfall forecast information

• Brainstorm best practices for specific soils

• Design on‐farm trials to test alternative options

• Depends on finance to under take alternatives

Sannaspos• Make season plan & discuss with

group,• Discuss 7 & 14 d forecasts in light

of farm activities.Mujika• 07/08 & 08/09 above normal

forecast => plant long season cultivar on upland & add fertilizer,

• Cultivar x fertilizer on‐farm trial.


Example of a decision tree

Plant MaizePlant Maize Plant Legumes

Choose planting dateChoose planting date

15-30 November 1-15 December 16 December- Early January

Long to medium cultivar

Medium to short cultivar

Normal & Above-normal rainfallNormal & Above-normal rainfall

Short cultivar

Good fertilizer application

Good fertilizer application

Medium fertilizer application

Crop selectionCrop selection

Scenarios for decision-making under normal to above-normal seasonal forecast for maize production, to make planting dates with cultivar choice.

etcetc


Demonstrate how climate / weather info helps make good decisions

• Use mother – baby trials• Use community crop modelling• Engage farmers in developing own advisories

Mother – Baby Trialsa) Mother trial = randomized, complete block design (Snapp, 2002).

– with factorial levels determined where responses are expected– with 2‐4 reps per site to give statistically valid results in farmers’ fields– researcher‐designed and managed trials.

b) Baby trials = located around mother trials– consist of a few treatments un‐replicated chosen from mother trial by farmers. – may be managed by researchers or farmers. – allow farmers to see for themselves performance of treatments at different

trial sites– allow for faster, larger‐scale testing at different locations under different

management conditions.

Farmers actively involved in “farmer to farmer” dissemination of information – even when other people are not around.

They kept telling the story of trials when other communities members passed their fields and/or visited them.

Community Modeling ExerciseUse existing farmer focus or study groupsa) Draw natural resources map using participatory methodsb) Farmers to id yields obtained in a wet & a dry year in last 5 yearsc) Run crop model with a specific farmer’s inputs

i. Cultivar & planting date & plant population & fertilizer etcii. Compare model & farmers yields iii. Repeat till farmers are happy the model can give good yield prediction

d) Brainstorm & discuss options for interventionse) Researchers work overnight to develop model runs for these

scenariosf) Next day meet farmers again and share long‐term model results

for various interventionsg) Allow much discussion & questioningh) Develop plan for on‐farm mother trials with selected promising

interventions

Engage farmers in developing advisoriesa) Use farmer developed decision trees with weather forecast info as triggers;b) Discuss what added value they need as well as T & rain;c) Add this info with the choices to weather forecasts;d) Use crop model outputs to give gradients and range of coping

strategies according to different conditions e.g.i. Cultivar choice ii. Planting dates iii. Plant population iv. Fertilizer amounts & application timing

e) Brainstorm & discuss options for presentation & disseminationmethods; &

f) Meet other farmer groups to test various interventions ‐Engage in discussion & questioning.

Explore alternative viable farming systemsa) Ask farmer to dream of an improves systemb) Show model outputs of alternative crops c) Assess potential of integrated systems with high value crops On‐farm processing Improved marketing Alternate uses

d) Intercroppinge) Agroforestryf) Alternative underutilized high value cropsg) Discuss options & end‐usesh) Test various interventions with farmers groups.


Conclusion

• Can use currently available climate & weather forecasts and information to develop specific Agromet services for a particular regional farming system.

• Engage farmers themselves to develop advisories, which use climate parameters as triggers for selection between alternative interventions which can optimise production and sustainability of system.

agromet for sustainable cropping systems - wamis. · pdf filefrom unknown future weather...

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