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AGROSCENARIScenarios on adaptation of agriculture to
climate change in ItalyProject financed by Ministry of Agricultural, Food and Forestry Policies (MIPAAF)
Domenico Vento, Simona Sorrenti, Sara Quaresima
OECD‐INEA‐FAO Workshop on Agriculture and adaptation to climate change
23rd – 25th June 2010
Agricultural Research CouncilAgricultural Climatology and Meteorology Research Unit
(CRA – CMA)
An increasing trend of about 1°C/century in surface air temperature has observed over the last 140 years
Joint OECD‐INEA‐FAO Workshop on Agriculture and adaptation to climate changeRome, 23 ‐ 25 June 2010
TEMPERATURE(CLIMAGRI)
CLIMAGRI - Maugeri
Anomalie annuali di TEMPERATURA MEDIA (°C)
Annual mean temperatureanomalies for three Italianzones, 1865‐2003, with respectto 1961‐1990 mean
AL: AlpsPP: Pianura PadanaPI: Italy Peninsular
Precipitation from 1750 to 2000
Joint OECD‐INEA‐FAO Workshop on Agriculture and adaptation to climate changeRome, 23 ‐ 25 June 2010
PRECIPITATION(CLIMAGRI)
Annual precipitations for sixItalian zones, 1750 – 2000, aswell as for Italy with respectto 1961 – 1990 mean
CLIMAGRI - Maugeri
The strong impact of climate changes on Italian territory has been significantly well‐understood by politicians.
This awareness has lead to significant investment in research:
Joint OECD‐INEA‐FAO Workshop on Agriculture and adaptation to climate changeRome, 23 ‐ 25 June 2010
THE CURRENT SITUATION
Funds have been invested by MIPAAF
CLIMAGRI€ 3.108.000,00
AGROSCENARI€ 8.143.268,70
5‐year projectD.M. 8608/7303/200807/08/2008€ 8.143.268,70
Steering committeeD.M. 21221/7303/200917/09/2009
Joint OECD‐INEA‐FAO Workshop on Agriculture and adaptation to climate changeRome, 23 ‐ 25 June 2010
MEASURES AND DURATION OF FUNDINGAND THE MIPAAF COMMITTEE
SOME NEGATIVE CAUSE‐EFFECT RELATIONS BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE
Scarcity of water
Extreme precipitation
A rise in air temperature
Heat‐waves
Increase in the cost of water
Drought
Desertification processes
Displacemet of areas of optimal phenological development for traditional crops
Aggressiveness and diffusion of parasites and phytopathologies
AGROSCENARI
Joint OECD‐INEA‐FAO Workshop on Agriculture and adaptation to climate changeRome, 23 ‐ 25 June 2010
VITICULTURE ‐ OLIVECULTURE ‐ CEREALhillside areas of central and southern Italy
INTENSIVE HORTICULTUREirrigated areas of central and southern
INTENSIVE CEREAL (ZOOTECHNICAL PURPOSES)Pianura Padana
INTENSIVE FRUIT‐CULTURESouth‐eastern Pianura Padana
EXTENSIVE CEREAL (ZOOTECHNICAL PURPOSES)semi‐arid environments
Joint OECD‐INEA‐FAO Workshop on Agriculture and adaptation to climate changeRome, 23 ‐ 25 June 2010
MAIN OBJECTIVETo identify the capacity of adaptation to future climate change of important production systems of Italian agriculture, while evaluating their sustainability
Joint OECD‐INEA‐FAO Workshop on Agriculture and adaptation to climate changeRome, 23 ‐ 25 June 2010
6 AREAS OF STUDYrepresenting the major production systems
MAIN OBJECTIVE
SHORT ‐ TERM(5 years)
LONG ‐ TERM(30 years)
Accurate monitoring andconsequently a realimmediate knowledge ofthe current situation ofsoil, water resources andcrops
Strategies for adaptationof agriculture
Strategies for limitationand reduction of climatechange impacts
Tools for decision‐makingand programming formedium‐range agriculturepolicies
Joint OECD‐INEA‐FAO Workshop on Agriculture and adaptation to climate changeRome, 23 ‐ 25 June 2010
MAIN OBJECTIVE
2 temporal horizons
Joint OECD‐INEA‐FAO Workshop on Agriculture and adaptation to climate changeRome, 23 ‐ 25 June 2010
SYNTHESIS OF THE OBJECTIVES‐ 1 ‐
most of the research effort will focus on:
In‐depth study and quantitative assessment of the meteo‐climatic risk for the selected production systems related toabiotic and biotic factors.
Defining, from an agronomical and agrotechnical point ofview a number of crops and varieties which are compatible withthe climate change scenarios in selected production systems andstudy areas on a temporal horizon of > 30 years
Joint OECD‐INEA‐FAO Workshop on Agriculture and adaptation to climate changeRome, 23 ‐ 25 June 2010
SYNTHESIS OF THE OBJECTIVES‐ 2 ‐
most of the research effort will focus on:
The acquisition of knowledge to pursue environmentalsustainibility of agricultural practices through bettermanagement of land and water resources.
Define strategy and metodology aimed at containment ofItalian agriculture’s water use in light of increasing drought risk.
Joint OECD‐INEA‐FAO Workshop on Agriculture and adaptation to climate changeRome, 23 ‐ 25 June 2010
SYNTHESIS OF THE OBJECTIVES‐ 3 ‐
most of the research effort will focus on:
The study of the economic sustainability of agriculturalpractices by limiting losses and safeguarding quality andquantity of crop production.
The creation of scientific and informative points of referencefor those who are responsable for sectoral policy as well as foragricultural operators.
Constant INTERACTION between MIPAAF – Project
ADAPTATION of agricolture to Climate Change
COORDINATION of a multidisciplinary research team
Evaluation of SOCIO‐ECONOMIC SUSTAINIBILITY of agricultural practices
Joint OECD‐INEA‐FAO Workshop on Agriculture and adaptation to climate changeRome, 23 ‐ 25 June 2010
THE KEY ISSUES
Joint OECD‐INEA‐FAO Workshop on Agriculture and adaptation to climate changeRome, 23 ‐ 25 June 2010
EXPECTED RESULTS
METHODOLOGIES OPERATIONAL SCHEMES
The outcome of the project will include:
will be used by:
REGIONAL AND CENTRAL ADMINISTRATION
to save natural resourcesthanks to reduction inwaste, to respectenvironmental legislation,to increase ability toattract european funds,…
STAKEHOLDERS
to save money due tomore efficient agriculturalpractices, to invest inmore profitable crops,…
Joint OECD‐INEA‐FAO Workshop on Agriculture and adaptation to climate changeRome, 23 ‐ 25 June 2010
RESEARCH
The aim of this research is the creation of daily time series ofmeteorological surface variables resulting from climate scenariosand calibrated for each of the 6 project areas.
Research 1 a
CNR‐IBIMET, Massimiliano Pasqui
“Acquisition, calibration and downscaling of climatic scenarios”
Joint OECD‐INEA‐FAO Workshop on Agriculture and adaptation to climate changeRome, 23 ‐ 25 June 2010
RESEARCH
Implementation of agrometeorological forecast systems: Nationalagrometeorological forecast of trafficability and workability ofsoil.
Georeferenced database of soil characteristics and quality.
Classification of indicators at the various stages of the landdegradation process.
Identification of the most effective measures to control landdegradation and desertification processes.
“Agrometeorology and Agricoltural Mechanization.”
Research 1 b
CRA‐CMA, Stanislao EspositoCRA‐ING, Pieranna Servadio
Joint OECD‐INEA‐FAO Workshop on Agriculture and adaptation to climate changeRome, 23 ‐ 25 June 2010
RESEARCH
Main cropping systems with special reference to herbaceous cropsin hilly areas.
Georeferenced database on specific case studies.
Stakeholders map for specific Italian agriculture scenarios.
Support structures for new agronomic research strategies aimedat negotiation of adaptation activities on different levels (regionalscale, national scale).
“Impact analyses of climate change on crop systems with specialreference to the main herbaceous crops.”
Research 2
NDR UNISS, Pier Paolo Roggero
Joint OECD‐INEA‐FAO Workshop on Agriculture and adaptation to climate changeRome, 23 ‐ 25 June 2010
RESEARCH
Analysis of variety – specific agroclimatic requirements for olives,grapes, wheat, horticultural and several other crops to definealternative production system adaptable to climate change.
“Scenarios for alternative production systems with emphasis onlocal crops and varieties.”
Research 3
CNR‐ISAFOM, Francesca De Lorenzi
Joint OECD‐INEA‐FAO Workshop on Agriculture and adaptation to climate changeRome, 23 ‐ 25 June 2010
RESEARCH
To solve zootechnological problems in presence of significantclimate change, through rationing models for dairy animals forcheese production and for meat quality in some DOP products.
“Study of innovative crop systems for cereal production in reducedwater conditions for the DOP (protected denomination of origin)zootechnological production.”
Research 4
UNICATT‐ISAN, Gianfranco Piva
Joint OECD‐INEA‐FAO Workshop on Agriculture and adaptation to climate changeRome, 23 ‐ 25 June 2010
RESEARCH
Development of an integrated adaptation approach to save waterresources and optimize their use in agriculture under climatechange
“Irrigation in a changing climate.”
Research 5
ARPA‐SIMC, Vittorio Marletto
Joint OECD‐INEA‐FAO Workshop on Agriculture and adaptation to climate changeRome, 23 ‐ 25 June 2010
RESEARCH
Evaluation of environmental vulnerability to the desertificationprocess through simulating evolution of LD&D (Land Degradation& Desertification) phenomena on the basis of one or more climatechange and crop or social‐economic scenarios.
“Land degradation processes and climate change.”
Research 6
CRA‐CMA, Luigi PeriniCRA‐ABP, Sergio Pellegrini
Joint OECD‐INEA‐FAO Workshop on Agriculture and adaptation to climate changeRome, 23 ‐ 25 June 2010
RESEARCH
Development of tools to estimate the impact of climate change onagricultural production systems through the study of croppathogens and parassites.
“Effect of climate change on development of crop pathogens andparassites: development of procedures and case studies fortechnical assistance structures.”
Research 7
CRA‐CIN, Marcello Donatelli
Joint OECD‐INEA‐FAO Workshop on Agriculture and adaptation to climate changeRome, 23 ‐ 25 June 2010
RESEARCH
The plants used as sensors of climate change. Plants are sensitiveto climatic parameters and act as biological sensors – in particularfor temperature and solar radiation.
“Climate change phenological indicators: databases, trends,decision support models.”
Research 8
CRA‐CMA, Giovanni Dal Monte
Joint OECD‐INEA‐FAO Workshop on Agriculture and adaptation to climate changeRome, 23 ‐ 25 June 2010
RESEARCH
Supply farm management guidelines to farmers and suggesttechnical innovations in agricultural policy to support adaptationto climate change.
“Adaptation of farm management to climate change andidentification of policy tools to support adaptive farms.
Information support systems and adaptation scenarios for thenational rural network. ”
Research 9
UNITUS‐DEAR, Gabriele DonoINEA, Raffaella Zucaro