ahmad fairudz jamaluddin malaysian meteorological department ministry of science, technology and...
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Ahmad Fairudz JamaluddinMalaysian Meteorological Department
Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation
The weather and climate The weather and climate of Malaysiaof Malaysia
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OutlineOutline
General Climate of Malaysia
Climate Long Term Mean of Malaysia
Observed Trend of Climate Extremes in Malaysia
How Regional Climate Model can enhance MMD’s
services Seasonal / Monthly Weather Outlook
Drought Monitoring
Fire Danger Rating
Summary
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GENERAL CLIMATE OF GENERAL CLIMATE OF MALAYSIAMALAYSIA
Tropical maritime climate with:
- uniform temperature
- high humidity
- rainfall throughout the year
The seasons:-
- Northeast Monsoon (Nov – Mar)
- Southwest Monsoon (June – August)
- Two Inter-Monsoon (Apr-May & Sept-Oct)
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Severe Weather in Malaysia
Northeast Monsoon (Nov – Mac)
Southwest Monsoon (Jun – Aug)Southwest Monsoon (Jun – Aug)
Inter-Monsoon (Apr-May & Sep-Oct)
FloodFlood
HazeHaze
Flash FloodFlash Flood
Strong Wind and Rough Sea
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50oE 100oE 150oE 160oW 110oW 60oW
50oS
25oS
0o
25oN
50oN SWM (Late May to Sept)
NEM (Nov to March)
INDIAN OCEAN
PACIFC OCEAN
Monsoon & Dominant Modes of Climate Variability
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ---- Interannual oscillation (2-7 years)Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) – intra-seasonal oscillation (20-60 days)
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Climate Long Term Meanin Malaysia
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Long Term Mean Monthly Rainfall Over PM
JANUARYDECEMBERNOVEMBER
JUNE JULY AUGUST
> 500
Southwest Monsoon
Northeast Monsoon
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Southwest Monsoon
Northeast Monsoon
Mean Monthly Average Temperature Over PM
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Southwest Monsoon
Northeast Monsoon
Mean Monthly Average RH Over PM
NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY
JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER
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0 – 50 50 – 100100 – 150150 – 200200 – 250250 – 300300 – 400400 – 500> 500
JUNE JULY AUGUST
Long Term Mean Monthly Rainfall Over EM
DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY
Northeast Monsoon
Southwest Monsoon
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Mean Monthly Average TemperatureOver EM
Northeast Monsoon
Southwest Monsoon
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Observed Trends of ClimateExtremes in Malaysia
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Frequency of Heavy Rainfall (blue) (>20mm) & Intensity (red) for 2 Hour Maximum Rainfall. Number in box indicates trends in PRCPTOT.
CONVECTIVE TIME SCALE Trends in 2 hour maximum rainfall
(Diong et al.; MMD)
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Frequency of Heavy Rainfall (blue) (>20mm) & Intensity (red) during Southwest Monsoon (JJA). Number in box indicates trends in PRCPTOT.
SEASONAL TIME SCALE Trends in heavy rainfall
(Diong et al.; MMD)
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Frequency of Heavy Rainfall (blue) (>20mm) & Intensity (red) during Northeast Monsoon (DJF). Number in box indicates trends in PRCPTOT.
SEASONAL TIME SCALE Trends in heavy rainfall
(Diong et al.; MMD)
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Frequency of Heavy Rainfall (blue) (>20mm) & Intensity (red) for annual rainfall. Number in box indicates trends in PRCPTOT.
ANNUAL TIME SCALE Trends in heavy rainfall
(Diong et al.; MMD)
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In general the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events are on the rise.
The SW monsoon season is becoming wetter but at the same time prolonged dry spells are more frequent.
During the NE monsoon season the extreme rainfall events associated with the monsoon surges and other synoptic features are on the rise.
Notable increasing trend in the annual precipitation is observed in EM with both the monsoon seasons possibly contributing to this trend.
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How Regional Climate Modelcan enhance MMD’s services
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Seasonal / Monthly Weather Outlook
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Climate Variability
Moisture convergence (mm/day)
Moisture flux during JJA (1979-2000)
Indian Ocean as source of moisture for PM during JJA. South China Sea / Pacific Ocean as source of moisture for Malaysian region during DJF
Indian Ocean experience warming SST relatively faster than other oceans including Pacific Ocean
Tangang et. al. (2007)
How this SST warming over Indian and Pacific Ocean modulate/change rainfall distribution and extreme weather event over the Malaysian region?
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Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)Composite Anomalous OLR, Mode -ve IOD years, Mode +ve IOD years during JJA
Anomalous OLR (W/m2)
During Mode –ve IOD, Malaysian region experience neutral condition compare to wetter condition over the South of Sumatra during JJA
During Mode +ve IOD, Malaysian region experience dry condition over the south of PM and Sarawak during JJA. However, south of Sumatra and Borneo experience driest condition during the period.
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Wet condition over south of PM and Sarawak during La-Nina. Dry condition over south of PM, Sarawak and south of Sabah during El-Nino (JJA)
El-Nino Southern Oscillation Index (ENSO)
Composite Anomalous OLR & La-Nina years during JJA
Anomalous OLR (W/m2) Anomalous OLR (W/m2)
Composite Anomalous OLR & El-Nino years during JJA
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Conventional El Nino
El Nino Modoki
Composites of Anomalous DJF Precipitation
(Ester Salimun, UKM)
Composites of Anomalous DJF Precipitation, Anomalous wind at 850hPa
Conventional ENSO vs ENSO-Modoki
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Composites of MJO Phases, Anomalous Precipitation & wind at 925hPa during JJA
(Fairudz et. al., MMD)
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Phase 1 + 2 Phase 3 + 4 Phase 5 + 6 Phase 7 + 8
Afternoon(15 – 20 MST)
Evening(21 – 02 MST)
Diurnal Rainfall and MJO during JJA
Composites of MJO Phases, standardized anomalous precipitation during afternoon and evening over PM
(Fairudz et. al., MMD)
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Left panel: Composite of MJO’s phase, anomalous mslp (contour), anomalous RH (value) and direction of surface wind (vector). Right panel: Composite of MJO’s phase, anomalous surface divergence, anomalous surface temperature.
LOCAL ATMOSPERIC CIRCULATION
Phase 1 + 2 Afternoon (15 – 20 MST) Stesen Phase
1+2Phase
3+4Phase
5+6
Bayan Lepas 75.12 91.56 86.12
KLIA 75.83 59.51 106.5
CIN (J/kg) at 20 MST
Relatively low CIN over the west cost of PM during phase 1+2 MJO. Relatively high CAPE over east coast of PM during phase 3+4 MJO.
H
L
Stesen Phase 1+2
Phase 3+4
Phase 5+6
Kuantan 1972.3 2784.1 2523.6
CAPE (J/kg) at 20 MST
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Composites of MJO Phases, Anomalous Precipitation & wind at 925hPa during DJF
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Statistical downscaling from JMA CGCM (three month lead time and 51 members)
Method of “double leave one-out cross-validation” with multiple size of optimal window is used to validate the model at each meteorological station. The highest correlation coefficient with station's precipitation was selected as predictor.
SON 2011
Probabilistic forecastfor SON 2011
STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING
(Yip et. al., MMD)
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NDJ NDJ
ECMWF
JAMSTEC
GCM’S SEASONAL PRODUCTS
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Rainfall Outlook for November 2012
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Meteorology Drought Monitoring
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000−4
−3
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
4
KotaKinabalu
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000−4
−3
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
4Sitiawan
V alu
eSP
I
Month
Meteorology Drought Event in Malaysia based on SPI Index
Category Number of Events
Percentage
Drought Event 14 46.6%
No Drought Event
16 53.3%
Event Number of Events
Percentage
El-Nino 10 71.4%
La-Nina 2 14.2%
Others 2 14.2%
Year
(Fatin Nurashikin, UKM)Latest 3-month SPI Index less than -1.0
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LEVEL CONDITIONS
WARNINGLatest 3-month and 6-monthly cumulative rainfall amount exceed 35% deficit from normal with latest 3-month SPI Indexs less than - 1.5 and the previous drought level was catogorized as ALERT.
DANGER Latest 3-month and 6-monthly cumulative rainfall amount exceed 35% deficit from normal with latest 3-month SPI Indexs less than – 2.0 and the previous drought level was catogorized as WARNING.
& Latest 3-month SPI less than -1.5
Meteorology Drought Monitoring
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Fire Danger Rating National & ASEAN Country
(currently 3 days forecast (WRF) with 4km resolution for Malaysia &
36km for SEA region
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Situation of sudden mortality of peatswamp trees (too much water over the area –
La-Nina 2011)
Situation of sudden mortality of peatswamp trees (too much water over the area –
La-Nina 2011)
Normal peatswamp (Neutral ENSO - August 2012)
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North Selangor PSF
Raja Musa FR
Sungai Karang FR
Selangor
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Pandangan daripada kompartmen 89 kiri terusan
Forest fires at RMFR – August 2012 ( 407 ha)
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Pandangan daripada kompartmen 89
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Forest fires at RMFR – 2012 ( 407 ha)
6 ha
60 ha
341 ha
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18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29
FFMC code during 18 – 29 August 2012
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18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25
27 2826 29
DMC code during 18 – 29 August 2012
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Fire spreading underground (Paya Indah Wetland)
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Fire spreading underground (Paya Indah Wetland)
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ISI : 1 – 10 Jun 2012 ISI extreme on 4 June 2012, same day burning start (rain on 9 June 2012)
1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10
ISI code during 1 – 10 June 2012
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ISI : 21 – 30 June 2012 ISI extreme throughout the burning period except on a few days due to rain (drastic change)
21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30
ISI code during 21 – 30 June 2012
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SummarySummary
In general, the intensity and frequency of extreme
rainfall events are on rise
Climate variability over the Malaysian region is strongly
influence by monsoon, ENSO, IOD and MJO
Malaysian forestry and water resources are too
sensitive to any changes/shifting of the climate
Reliable RCMs are crucial and important to enhance
MMD’s services such as accurate seasonal/monthly
weather outlook, drought monitoring and fire danger
rating
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Agriculture; Agro-Climatological Zonation
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Annual Average Rainfall
Annual Average Temperatures
Soil Suitability Sub-Classes Classification by Terrain Limits: (Class 3 or less)
where;
2000-3000mm 24°C to 28°
Suitable : 1n, 2d and 2dtClass 1Class 2Class 3
0-2°>2-6°>6-12°
Marginal: 2DGn, 2Gn, 2Dt(G), 2Gnt, 2cGnt, 2cd, 2cdGnt, 2dnT, 2dnt, 2nT, 2nT(G), 3D(nt), 3G, 3G(cn), 3G(cnT), 3G(n),3G(nt), 3G(t), 3R(n), 3d, 3d(n), 3d(t), 3dt, 3t(G), 4dt, 4dt(n)
Oil Palm Cultivation Areas for Johore Suitability Areas (Marginal) for Oil Palm Cultivation in Johore
Oil Palm Planted on Suitability (Marginal) land in Johor
StatesState Areas
(ha)Actual
Planted (A) % Planted Suitable (S) % Suitable
Suitable not being Planted
Johor 1,891,510 829,036 43.8 41,761 2.2 22,578
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Composites of MJO Phases, Anomalous OLR, Anomalous Geopotential Height at 500hPa & wind at 850hPa during JJA