aid tradeoff disadvantage
TRANSCRIPT
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Egyptian Aid Trade-off Shell .................................................................................................................. 2
UQ: Egypt has sufficient aid now ......................................................................................................... 4
Link Magnifier ....................................................................................................................................... 5
Links: Aid to Mexico ............................................................................................................................. 6
Links: Aid to Cuba ................................................................................................................................. 7
Links: Aid to Venezuela ........................................................................................................................ 8
Internal Links: Egyptian Aid Will Be Cut ............................................................................................... 9
Internal Links: Budgets Trade-off ....................................................................................................... 11
Internal Links: Foreign Aid Will Be Traded Off With .......................................................................... 12
Impacts: Cutting Aid To Egypt = Instability ........................................................................................ 14
Impacts: Aid to Egypt Key to Egypt’s Economy .................................................................................. 19
Impact Module: Democracy Promotion............................................................................................. 21
Impacts: Now Key Time for Egypt ...................................................................................................... 22
Impacts: Worsened Crisis = War ........................................................................................................ 26
Food Aid Trade-off Impact Module ........................................................................................................ 28
Food Aid Module Internals ................................................................................................................. 29
Food Aid Solves Hunger ...................................................................................................................... 30
Food Aid Impact Module Extensions: Food Aid Solves Poverty ......................................................... 31
Food Aid Module: Food Aid Solves Poverty ....................................................................................... 32
Food Aid Impact Module: Terrorism Impacts .................................................................................... 33
Food Aid Solves Hunger ...................................................................................................................... 35
Food Aid Module—US supplies most food aid ................................................................................... 37
Defense Cuts Module .............................................................................................................................. 38
Impacts: Budget Cuts Hurt Readiness ................................................................................................ 40
Defense Aid Necessary ........................................................................................................................ 44
Economy Module .................................................................................................................................... 45
Economy Module Extensions .............................................................................................................. 47
Economy Module: Foreign Aid Bolsters the Economy ....................................................................... 48
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Egyptian Aid Trade-off Shell
A. UNIQUENESS: EGYPT RECEIVES ADEQUATE FOREIGN AID NOW.
Michael Gordon, (staff writer), Mar. 3, 2013, NEW YORK TIMES, Retrieved May 30, 2013 fromhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/04/world/middleeast/kerry-announces-millions-in-us-aid-
for-egypt.html?_r=0
Secretary of State John Kerry announced Sunday that the United States would provide $250 million in
assistance to Egypt after Egypt’s president promised to move ahead with negotiations with the International Monetary Fund overeconomic reforms. Secretary of State John Kerry departed Cairo after meeting with President Mohamed Morsi of Egypt and announcing $250
million in aid from the U.S. In a statement issued after his two-hour meeting with President Mohamed Morsi, Mr. Kerry said the aid decision
reflected Egypt’s “extreme needs” and Mr. Morsi’s assurance that Egypt would reach an agreement with the I.M.F. after more than a year of
talks over a $4.8 billion loan package. The statement issued by Mr. Kerry noted that he and Mr. Morsi had discussed the need to ensure the
fairness of Egypt’s coming elections, but it did not mention any specific political commitments the Egyptian president had made to receive the
aid. Parliamentary elections are scheduled for April. Some opposition groups have said they will boycott the vote because of what they see as
an effort by Mr. Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood movement to dominate Egyptian politics. American officials say that Mr.
Kerry asserted that moving ahead with difficult economic changes in Egypt would require a degree of
political consensus and was implicitly a promise of some political change. The aid announced Sundayconsists of two parts. One is a $190 million inf usion for Egypt’s budget intended to address what Mr.
Kerry said was the country’s “ extreme needs .” That assistance has already been approved by Congress. Mr. Kerry
also pledged $60 million for the creation of a fund to support small businesses, which will provide
“direct support to key engines of democratic change in Egypt, including Egypt’s entrepreneurs and its young people.”As an incentive for Mr. Morsi to conclude an agreement with the I.M.F., Mr. Kerry said that he would work with Congress to get additional
funds approved for Egypt once a deal was reached. In May 2011, President Obama pledged $1 billion to support Egypt’s democratic revolution.
The $190 million in aid announced on Sunday is the first disbursement of that pledge.
B. LINK: BUDGET PRESSURES WILL REQUIRE CUTS IN EGYPTIAN AID.
1. Budget pressures force trade-offs in foreign aid.
Warren P. Strobel, (McClatchy Newspapers), Mar. 4, 2011, Retrieved May 30, 2013 fromhttp://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/03/04/v-print/109865/like-new-middle-east-obama-
doctrine.htmlNow the Obama team is being tested with dramatic developments almost by the hour, and with huge stakes. Will Libya, as Clinton asked
recently, turn into a democracy, or a North African Somalia, a haven for terrorists? Will reform in Egypt provide a model for
smaller Arab nations, or go off track? National Security Adviser Thomas Donilon briefs Obama multiple times each day on thecrisis, and deputy Denis McDonough leads meetings virtually daily of the inter-agency Deputies Committee. Obama, Shapiro said, has ordered
officials and diplomats to open channels of communications wherever they can find them, not just with counterparts in Arab governments, but
with members of civil society and opposition groups. He called it "a very Obama approach" drawn from the president's days as a community
organizer in Chicago. "You go out and talk to everybody," he said, and it has helped U.S. officials get a richer understanding of what is
happening in Egypt and elsewhere. There have been some tensions, particularly over the decision to break with Mubarak, between those at the
White House and State Department who favor strongly supporting pro-democracy movements and those who favor stability, current and
former U.S. officials say. There's also the threat of data overload. "You have a serious bandwith problem," said one Middle East expert who
consults with the White House and who requested anonymity to not jeopardize those ties. "How do you even process the information?" If the
collapse of European communism beginning in 1989 is even a rough guide, the Middle East revolutions and their aftermath will go on for years,
requiring diplomatic attention long after the headlines have faded. The Berlin Wall collapsed in 1989, but the Soviet Union lived on until the
end of 1991. East and West Germany reunified in 1990, but it took more than a decade for differences between the two sides to be smoothed
over. And the end of the Cold War helped spark costly conflicts in the Balkans, from 1992-1999, and in places such as Georgia on Russia's
southern border. What challenges lie ahead in the Middle East can only be imagined. It will take years, at best, for Egypt to become a
functioning democracy. Gadhafi's personality has so dominated Libya for 40 years that if he goes, new institutions will have to be built from the
ground up. Bahrain, with its Shiite Muslim majority dominated by a Sunni minority, could become the center of a proxy war between Shiite Iran
and Sunni Saudi Arabia. The U.S. spent billions of dollars helping shepherd eastern Europe toward democracy
and free-market economies, and even gave aid to a destitute Russia, once its mortal enemy. But now, the U.S.
government doesn't have the deep pockets it once did, and the White House hasn't announced large
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new democracy assistance programs for the Middle East. That will be "harder to sustain in an era
when budgets are tight," the senior official said.
2. Aid to Egypt will be cut—Congress is constantly trying to cut aid to Egypt.
Lindsey Graham, (Senator), Apr. 18, 2013, CQ TRANSCRIPTIONS, Retrieved May 29, 2013, fromLexis/Nexis
There's a constant effort in the Congress here to cut aid to Egypt . And I can understand why people
in America would be frustrated with the Morsi government and the level of progress, but could you just verybriefly describe to this committee and those who watching why it's important to stay in the game with Egypt, what would happen if we just
severed our ties?
C. IMPACT: CUTTING AID TO EGYPT RISKS A DISASTROUS MIDDLE EAST WAR.
1. Cutting ties to Egypt causes an Egyptian-Israeli war and rampant extremism in
Egypt.
John Kerry, (Secretary of State), Apr. 18, 2013, CQ TRANSCRIPTIONS, Retrieved May 29, 2013, fromLexis/Nexis
KERRY: Well, if we just severed our ties, I think our great ally, Israel, our friend, would be in jeopardy
immediately. Egypt is enforcing the peace in the Sinai . Egypt is working intel mil-to-mil, military-to-
military, intel-to-intel, with Israel. Israel will tell you that that cooperation is day-to-day and critical to
them. Egypt helped to broker the Gaza peace agreement and has kept it enforced . Israel -- Egypt has helped
to shut tunnels for smuggling that are going in. There are still too many tunnels, but they've begun that process. Egypt's military is an
essential bulwark against extremism and -- and a pro-cooperative effort.
2. War in the Middle East will escalate and result in nuclear war.
Syarif Hidayat, (Indonesian Journalist), May 11, 2013, Retrieved May 30, 2013 fromhttp://hshidayat.wordpress.com/2013/05/11/israeli-weapons-of-mass-destruction-threaten-world-peace-and-stability/
Meanwhile, the existence of an arsenal of mass destruction in such an unstable region in turn has serious
implications for future arms control and disarmament negotiations, and even the threat of nuclear war. Seymour Hersh
warns, “Should war break out in the Middle East again,… or should any Arab nation fire missiles against Israel, as the Iraqis
did, a nuclear escalation, once unthinkable except as a last resort, would now be a strong probability.”
and Ezar Weissman said “The nuclear issue is gaining momentum (and the) next war will not be
conventional.”
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UQ: Egypt has sufficient aid now
Aid to Egypt is adequate now—despite pressures to cut it.
Senator Robert Menendez, (Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee), May 15, 2013,CONGRESSIONAL DOCUMENTS AND PUBLICATIONS, Retrieved May 29, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis
Frankly, the American Congress is having trouble in that regard. We are locked in a political battle between the
internationalists on one side, and the new-isolationists on the other. Thankfully, just last month,
proposals to cut the International Affairs Budget by $15 billion - a full 33 percent - were defeated, as were
attempts to reduce aid to Egypt - and prohibit funds for the United Nations. These votes sent a clear message to the newisolationists in the Senate that America will accept its international leadership role in meeting the new challenges we face, but - clearly -- the
lines are drawn, especially when it comes to treaties.
Aid to Egypt is barely being protected in the present system.
SOUTH ASIAN MEDIA NETWORK, Mar. 2, 2013, Retrieved May 29, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis
Egypt's military has worried that political instability might be used as an excuse by other countries tocut aid; some members of the U.S. Congress had tried to block a deal , agreed when Mubarak was in power, to
give Egypt F-16 fighters. But U.S. and Egyptian officials announced this month that the U.S. had gone
ahead with delivery of four F-16 fighter jets as part of their continuing co-operation
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Link Magnifier
CURRENT FOREIGN AID IS SUFFICIENT, BUT SEQUESTRATION HAS ELIMINATED ANY
ROOM FOR ERRORTatiana Vorozhko, (staff writer), VOICE OF AMERICA NEWS, Apr. 3, 2013, Retrieved Apr. 25, 2013,from Lexis/Nexis
The mandatory U.S. federal budget cuts that recently went into effect -- known as "sequestration" --
are affecting more than the government's domestic programs. The $85 billion across-the-board cuts
are also taking their bite out of international aid and development efforts. Despite the challenges and the rhetoric, manyfeel the future of international aid is still optimistic.
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Links: Aid to Mexico
AID TO MEXICO WILL BE CLOSELY SCRUTINIZED
CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY HOMELAND SECURITY, Apr. 1, 2013, Retrieved Apr. 24, 2013 fromLexis/Nexis
However, lawmakers will likely question whether to spend that money if they don't see significant
commitment from the Mexican government, CRS found. The report said the issue could come up with
members as soon as the onset of the fiscal 2014 appropriations season.¶ "As foreign aid budgets
tighten, congressional scrutiny of U.S. programs in Mexico may intensify ," the report said.
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Links: Aid to Cuba
AID TO CUBA WILL BE SCRUTINIZED - CONGRESS IS STILL NOT READY TO STRENGTHEN
RELATIONS WITH CUBAEIU VIEWSWIRE SELECT, Apr. 15, 2013, Retrieved Apr. 27, 2013 from Lexis/NexisWith the Republican Party retaining its majority in the US House of Representatives (at least until 2014,
when congressional elections are due) and Congress facing a busy legislative agenda, the prospect of
an improvement in US-Cuban relations in the short term is dim . Cuba's rejection of US conditions for
the removal of sanctions will hinder any softening of US policy, as will an influential (albeit weakening)
US-based anti-Castro lobby.
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Links: Aid to Venezuela
AID TO VENEZUELA WILL BE SCRUTINIZED - CONGRESS DOES NOT WANT TO INCREASE
RELATIONS EVEN AFTER CHAVEZJim Lobe, (staff writer), IPS - INTER PRESS SERVICE, Mar. 7, 2013, Retrieved Apr. 27, 2013 fromLexis/Nexis
At the same time, however, Shifter warned that the White House itself will likely move very slowly, so as not to
provoke right-wingers in Congress who greeted Chávez's long-awaited demise with undiluted enthusiasm. They called, amongother things, for the administration to retaliate for the two expulsions, a step which State Department officials said they were reviewing
Wednesday. "Hugo Chávez was a tyrant who forced the people of Venezuela to live in fear," said Rep. Ed Royce, who has just succeeded the
fiercely anti-Chávez and anti-Castro Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen as chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. "His death dents the alliance of
anti-U.S. leftist leaders in South America. Good riddance to this dictator." "The problem on the U.S. side of the bilateral
relationship is going to be some members of Congress who will be very critical of any sign of
rapprochement between the administration and Maduro," Shifter said. "And they're not going to want to
fight with members of Congress over Venezuela. So they're going to try to explore these openings but
will be quite cautious and careful about doing so."
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Internal Links: Egyptian Aid Will Be Cut
Congress is eager to cut Egyptian aid—it’s on the chopping block.
Emily Cadei, 6/5/2013 (staff writer, “Egypt Aid Faces Growing Opposition on Capitol Hill,”http://www.rollcall.com/news/egypt_aid_faces_growing_opposition_on_capitol_hill-225339-
1.html, Accessed 6/26/2013, rwg)An Egyptian court’s conviction of more than 40 civil society workers Tuesday prompted sharp criticism from Capitol Hill, even from lawmakers
who have urged patience with Cairo in the past.¶ With Congress in the midst of drafting its fiscal 2014 spending bills,
the latest news from the troubled country will make it that much tougher for the Obama
administration to maintain funding levels for Egyptian aid this year, as requested in its budget.The case of the civil
society workers has been a major thorn in the side of U.S.-Egypt relations since Egyptian authorities raided the offices of a handful of American
and other foreign organizations and arrested employees in late December 2011. Sixteen Americans were among those jailed, creating a major
diplomatic crisis that only dissipated when the Americans were allowed to leave the country in March 2012. They were among the workers
convicted, in absentia, on Tuesday.¶ Sen. Patrick J. Leahy, D-Vt., who chairs the Appropriations subcommittee that
doles out foreign aid dollars, warned in a release that “if Egypt continues on this repressive path, it
will be increasingly difficult for the United States to support President Morsi’s government.”
US aid to Egypt is at stake now.
Emily Cadei, 6/5/2013 (staff writer, “Egypt Aid Faces Growing Opposition on Capitol Hill,”http://www.rollcall.com/news/egypt_aid_faces_growing_opposition_on_capitol_hill-225339-
1.html, Accessed 6/26/2013, rwg)
Shortly af ter news of the court’s decision broke Tuesday, a bipartisan pair of congressmen began
circulating a letter to colleagues addressed to Morsi, and obtained by CQ Roll Call, lambasting the
convictions and issuing a not-so-veiled warning that the United States’ considerable aid program to
Egypt is at stake.
Congress is increasingly grumbling about aid to Egypt.Emily Cadei, 6/5/2013 (staff writer, “Egypt Aid Faces Growing Opposition on Capitol Hill,”http://www.rollcall.com/news/egypt_aid_faces_growing_opposition_on_capitol_hill-225339-
1.html, Accessed 6/26/2013, rwg)
Several leading Republican senators, meanwhile, quickly called for a “comprehensive review” by
Congress of Egypt’s foreign aid package .¶ The grumbling from Congress has been building in recent
months, as Washington has watched Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Islamist party, crackdown on critics and political opponents and stall economic changes necessary for a loan from the International Monetary Fund. That, in turn,
has held up the brunt of the $1 billion in economic assistance and loan forgiveness that President Barack Obama promised Egyptian leaders in
2011.
Aid to Egypt is the most unpopular item in the budget.
Charles Krauthammer, (American Pulitzer Prize-winning syndicated columnist), Mar. 19, 2013, THEPERU TRIBUNE (INDIANA), Retrieved May 29, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis
WASHINGTON — Sequestration is not the best time to be doling out foreign aid, surely the most
unpopular item in the federal budget. Especially when the recipient is President Mohamed Morsi of
Egypt. Morsi is intent on getting the release of Omar Abdel-Rahman (the Blind Sheik), serving a life sentence for masterminding the 1993
World Trade Center attack that killed six and wounded more than a thousand. Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood is openly anti-
Christian, anti-Semitic and otherwise prolifically intolerant. Just three years ago, Morsi called on Egyptians to nurse
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their children and grandchildren on hatred for Jews, whom he has called "the descendants of apes and pigs." Not exactly Albert Schweitzer. Or
even Anwar Sadat. Which left a bad taste when Secretary of State John Kerry, traveling to Cairo, handed Morsi a cool $250 million. (A tenth of
which would cover about 25 years of White House tours, no longer affordable under sequestration. Says the administration.)
Egyptian aid will be targeted for cuts.
Matthew Clark, (ACLJ), Jan. 5, 2013, THE MORAL LIBERAL, Retrieved May 29, 2013, from Lexis/NexisWe should not be giving this radical Muslim Brotherhood-led government and its president who calls for armed
resistance against our ally Israel our best weapons. Congress has taken notice, and a bill has been introduced
to cut off all aid for Egypt. Join over 170,000 Americans in demanding that the Obama Administration stop arming and funding theradical Muslim Brotherhood government of Egypt. Sign the petition today.[6]
Support for cutting aid to Egypt is increasing now.
Emily Cadei, 6/5/2013 (staff writer, “Egypt Aid Faces Growing Opposition on Capitol Hill,”http://www.rollcall.com/news/egypt_aid_faces_growing_opposition_on_capitol_hill-225339-
1.html, Accessed 6/26/2013, rwg)
Secretary of State John Kerry announced the transfer of nearly $200 million in cash assistance during a
visit to Cairo in March, but otherwise the delivery of aid has been constrained, with HouseRepublicans particularly resistant to delivering more money. That stance appears to now be gaining
broader favor.
Egyptian aid is unpopular now.
Charles Krauthammer, 3/8/2013 (staff writer, “Aid for Egypt, but no money for White Housetours,” http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/03/08/charles-krauthammer-aid-for-egypt-
but-no-money-for-white-house-tours/, Accessed 6/26/2013, rwg)
Sequestration is not the best time to be doling out foreign aid, surely the most unpopular item in the
federal budget. Especially when the recipient is President Mohamed Morsi of Egypt.¶ Morsi is intent on getting therelease of Omar Abdel-Rahman (the Blind Sheik), serving a life sentence for masterminding the 1993 World Trade Center attack that killed six
and wounded more than a thousand. Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood is openly anti-Christian, anti-Semitic and otherwise prolifically intolerant.
Just three years ago, Morsi called on Egyptians to nurse their children and grandchildren on hatred for Jews, whom he has called “thedescendants of apes and pigs.”
Aid to Egypt in trouble now.
John Lyman, 2/15/2011 (staff writer, “Foreign Aid on the Budget Chopping Block,”http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2011/02/15/foreign-aid-on-the-budget-chopping-
block/, Accessed 6/26/2013, rwg)
Capitol Hill’s most ardent budget hawk, and critic of contemporary U.S. foreign policy, Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), made the
claim during his speech at CPAC in Washington “We need to do a lot less, a lot sooner, not only in
Egypt but around the world.”¶ Policymakers in Washington will have to deal with the country’s
massive budget deficit and make difficult choices . Foreign aid along and other programs are being
considered before non-discretionary spending.
http://www.rollcall.com/news/egypt_aid_faces_growing_opposition_on_capitol_hill-225339-1.htmlhttp://www.rollcall.com/news/egypt_aid_faces_growing_opposition_on_capitol_hill-225339-1.htmlhttp://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/03/08/charles-krauthammer-aid-for-egypt-but-no-money-for-white-house-tours/http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/03/08/charles-krauthammer-aid-for-egypt-but-no-money-for-white-house-tours/http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/03/08/charles-krauthammer-aid-for-egypt-but-no-money-for-white-house-tours/http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2011/02/15/foreign-aid-on-the-budget-chopping-block/http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2011/02/15/foreign-aid-on-the-budget-chopping-block/http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2011/02/15/foreign-aid-on-the-budget-chopping-block/http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2011/02/15/foreign-aid-on-the-budget-chopping-block/http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/03/08/charles-krauthammer-aid-for-egypt-but-no-money-for-white-house-tours/http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/03/08/charles-krauthammer-aid-for-egypt-but-no-money-for-white-house-tours/http://www.rollcall.com/news/egypt_aid_faces_growing_opposition_on_capitol_hill-225339-1.htmlhttp://www.rollcall.com/news/egypt_aid_faces_growing_opposition_on_capitol_hill-225339-1.html
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Internal Links: Budgets Trade-off
History proves that budget pressures require trade-offs within foreign aid.
James Kunder, 7/7/2011 (Senior Resident Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States(GMF) and a Principal of the Modernizing Foreign Assistance Network (MFAN)), July 7, 2011, Retrieved
May 30, 2013 from http://dailycaller.com/2011/07/07/foreign-aid-keeps-america-safe/#ixzz1S05YXECT
We’ve been here before. In the 1990s, when no one foresaw the global threat posed by extremists operating out of failed and fragile
states, Congress cut USAID to the bone, forcing the agency to purge its cadre of technical specialists. Thisshort-sighted course became evident in the wake of the 2003 Iraq intervention. Having downsized scores of democracy experts, agronomists,
engineers and public health professionals from USAID, civilians with little international experience were sent to Baghdad to “advise” the post-
Saddam Iraqi government, with disastrous results. Both the Bush and Obama administrations tried to correct course
by launching initiatives to rebuild technical capacity at the State Department and USAID. Now,
budget pressures might force this rebuilding effort to grind to a halt.
Foreign aid is perennially on the chopping block.
Hannah Allam, 2/20/2013 (writer for McClatchy Newspapers), MCCLATCHY WASHINGTON BUREAU,Feb. 20, 2013, Retrieved May 29, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis
Kerry was particularly protective of foreign aid, which is often among the first items on the chopping
block in tough times. The State Department projects roughly $1.7 billion in cuts to foreign aid under
the mandatory budget cuts. Kerry lauded the fact that 11 of the top 15 U.S. trade partners were former
recipients of U.S. assistance and said the money must continue to flow, as an investment, in order to
grow a new crop of beneficiaries-turned-economic allies.
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Internal Links: Foreign Aid Will Be Traded Off With
Foreign aid will be traded off with:
Sam Loewenberg, 2013 (Global Health Correspondent), GLOBALPOST: BEATS (NORTH AMERICA),Apr. 24, 2013, Retrieved Apr. 25, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis
"Given our debt crisis, the bar for justifying foreign aid is higher than ever. Wasteful spending on
ineffective and unsustainable programs will not be tolerated," said House Foreign Affairs Committee
Chairman Ed Royce (R-Calif.), in an opening salvo on the committee's website in anticipation of Thursday's
testimony by Shah.
Foreign aid is a political punching bag.
Tatiana Vorozhko, 2013 (staff writer), VOICE OF AMERICA NEWS, Apr. 3, 2013, Retrieved Apr. 25,2013, from Lexis/Nexis
And while foreign aid is a popular punching bag in political debates, it actually accounts for no more
than 1 percent of the entire US budget.
Foreign aid will be targeted for cuts by Republican budget cutters.
Seema Mehta and Kathleen Hennessey, 2012 (staff writers), LOS ANGELES TIMES, Sept. 26, 2012,Retrieved Apr. 26, 2013, from Lexis/NexisClinton, who created the initiative in 2005 to help address global problems, introduced both candidates. But he is campaigning forcefully for
Obama, and his endorsement at the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C., was credited with helping the president gain in the
polls. "If there's one thing we've learned this election season, it's that a few words from Bill Clinton can do a man a lot of good," Romney said.
"All I got to do now is wait a couple days for that bounce to happen." Clinton's convention speech was also noted for its detailed analysis and
expansive length. When he introduced Obama, he joked that he wanted to make one comment. "I want to finish that speech I
started in Charlotte," Clinton said. Foreign aid -- often a target of Republican budget-cutters -- tends to
be unpopular with voters who believe the U.S. has been wasting billions without receiving sufficient
appreciation in countries such as Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq .
Americans oppose foreign aid.
Stacy Washington, 2012 (FreedomWorks), STATES NEWS SERVICE, Oct. 1, 2012, Retrieved Apr. 26,2013, from Lexis/Nexis Where do Americans stand? When polled, American's overwhelmingly oppose
foreign aid, instead polling 59% in favor of cutting aid. Foreign aid is intended to buy American
influence and shape the behavior of receiving countries.
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Foreign aid is the least popular program.1114. THE HUFFINGTON POST, Mar. 18, 2013, Retrieved Apr. 25, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis So, spurred by Bernstein's musing, the
HuffPost/YouGov poll asked Americans to explain in their own words what they mean by the phrase
"wasteful government spending." The survey accepted up to two responses per person. Respondents offered a broad mix of
answers, from budget line-item programs they want to cut (like foreign aid or military spending), to infamous examples of governmentspending that appear foolish (like robotic squirrels and $100 hammers), to more general references to corruption, fraud and earmarks.
According to 26 percent of respondents, "wasteful government spending" means salaries and perks for government employees, especially
Congress members and the president. The single most mentioned program was foreign aid, which was listed by
10 percent of respondents but makes up only about 1 percent of the federal budget.
Public will support cuts in foreign aid.Steven Kull, 2011 (Dir. Prog. International Policy Attitudes), 2011, Retrieved Apr. 27, 2013 from
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Research/Files/Reports/2011/9/global%20development/2011_blum_foreign_aid_kull.PDF At the same
time, Americans do have reservations and misperceptions about various aspects of the U.S. aid program
and do harbor some doubts about the logic of giving aid. Thus Americans can be responsive to certain
arguments critical of aid when they are put forward in a systematic and determined fashion. Efforts to
attack aid spending will likely focus on these vulnerabilities. The effectiveness of these attacks will, to a substantialextent, be a function of how much policymakers perceive the public as responding to them. Policy discourse, especially in Congress, develops in
the context of arguments made to the public. Poll results can play a signifi cant role in this process, but narratives can emerge based purely on
hunches or what the media portrays. When congressional leaders make arguments and believe they are striking a chord with the public, this is
reinforcing and emboldening. When their opponents perceive this, they may be more likely to accommodate. Members of Congress only
occasionally take their arguments to the larger public, but there is constant jockeying to create a sense of who would prevail if these
arguments were to be taken to the public. The outcome of this interchange ultimately influences legislative behavior.
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Impacts: Cutting Aid To Egypt = Instability
Cutting aid to Egypt would undermine the security of the entire region.
John Kerry, 4/18/2013 (Secretary of State), Apr. 18, 2013, CQ TRANSCRIPTIONS, Retrieved May29, 2013, f rom Lexis/Nexis
I think everybody needs to step back and say, look at what happened in Egypt. You had a bunch of young people, a generational revolution, not
an Islamic revolution, not a religious-based or ideological revolution, a generational revolution that was based on the aspirations of, you know,
millions of young kids who want a future that they see the rest of the world having, because they're all connected on the Internet and they see
what's going on in the world. That was the cellphone, you know, text message revolution. And what happened is, obviously, they had an
election, we should be grateful for and proud of, and -- and the people who were the most organized, as is often the way it is in elections, won.
Now, we got questions about where they're going. Yes, we do. I'm not going to sit here and tell you that I'm sanguine about it. They've got to
make major economic decisions. They've got to do a better job of reaching... GRAHAM: The IMF is involved in... KERRY: The IMF, all of that. But
the military kept the peace. The military actually kept a civil war from occurring. We have young
officers in our military who work with theirs who are able to get on the phone and help to quell the
violence and give them a sense of direction. And that military actually created the framework for the election and then turned
over power to the elected officials of the people of Egypt. They supported democracy. To cut aid to them and to cut
aid to Egypt now would be an insult to everything that we have tried to work for and that they have, quote,
"embraced" and, frankly, a dangerous move with respect to the security of the region. Last -- last issue, a quarterof the Arab world is in Egypt. Egypt has historically been the center of, really, the grounding of the Arab community, if you will. And in terms of
its civil society, there's a strong civil society there. It needs to organize itself more effectively. The opposition needs to organize itself more
effectively. But there's the capacity there for a vibrant political debate going forward. And we should not turn our back on that because
somebody won the election who may put some of those choices at question today.
US military aid to Egypt is critical to peace in the region and supports the US economy.
Aki Peritz, 4/2/2013 (The senior policy adviser for national security at Third Way), Apr. 2,2013, Retrieved May 30, 2013 from http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-
report/2013/04/02/gutting-aid-to-egypt-would-be-a-mistake-for-the-us
The U.S. also expanded military aid in part to maintain the Israel-Egypt peace. This money is mostly
funneled back to U.S. defense businesses, as Egypt purchases M1A1 Abrams tanks, F-16 jets, Apachehelicopters, and anti-aircraft missile batteries, among other equipment. It's a win-win for everyone: We help maintain (an
admittedly cold) peace in a volatile region, and U.S. businesses make money. What's not to like?
Economic assistance to Egypt is key to stability in Egypt.
Lindsey Graham, 4/18/2013 (Senator), Apr. 18, 2013, CQ TRANSCRIPTIONS, Retrieved May 29,2013, from Lexis/Nexis
GRAHAM: Well, as to our aid -- the aid we give to the Egyptian military, it's no small part of their budget. So I
hope we understand that the Egyptian military is the glue that holds that place together right now.
And our economic aid, the economy of Egypt's in decline, and we should do what we can to keep it
from becoming chaotic, so I support what you're doing.
Cutting aid to Egypt risks a radical dictatorship in Egypt.
Charles Krauthammer, 3/19/2013 (American Pulitzer Prize-winning syndicated columnist),Mar. 19, 2013, THE PERU TRIBUNE (INDIANA), Retrieved May 29, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis
Nonetheless, we should not cut off aid to Egypt. It's not that we must blindly support unfriendly regimes. It is perfectly reasonable
to cut off aid to governments that are intrinsically hostile and beyond our influence. Subsidizing enemies is merely stupid. But Egypt is not
an enemy, certainly not yet. It may no longer be our strongest Arab ally, but it is still in play. The
Brotherhood aims to establish an Islamist dictatorship . Yet it remains a considerable distance from
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having done so. Precisely why we should remain engaged. And engagement means using our
economic leverage.
Egypt’s fate is in the balance—aid to Egypt is key to stability and reform.
Charles Krauthammer, 3/19/2013 (American Pulitzer Prize-winning syndicated columnist),Mar. 19, 2013, THE PERU TRIBUNE (INDIANA), Retrieved May 29, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis
We give foreign aid for two reasons: (a) to support allies who share our values and our interests, and (b) to
extract from less-than-friendly regimes concessions that either bring their policies more in line with ours
or strengthen competing actors more favorably inclined toward American objectives. That's the point of foreign aid. It's
particularly important in countries like Egypt whose fate is in the balance. But it will only work if we remain clear-eyed about why we give all that money in the first place.
US support of Egypt is key to it being an anchor of stability and progress.
The Center for American Progress, 3/2/2013 (think tank), Mar. 2, 2013, US OFFICIALNEWS, Retrieved May 29, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis
U.S. support for the Egyptian people’s aspirations for a democratic Egypt—one that protects the rights of all of its
citizens and builds a diversified economy with a strong private sector—can ensure that Egypt is an anchor for stability and
progress in the Middle East for decades to come. By contrast, a government in Egypt that lacks
popular legitimacy and does not support pluralism and universal values—including respect for the basic rights of all
Egyptians regardless of gender and faith and basic freedoms such as those of speech and assembly—will lead to sustained internal
turmoil . This would ultimately hamper Egypt’s capacity to serve as a viable regional security partner. The transition in Egypt has already taken several unexpected turns over the past two years, and uncertainty will likely remain for years to come.
As a result, U.S. policymakers should take a long view of the events currently playing out in Egypt and make more active attempts to bend the
long arc of revolution toward a prosperous, pluralistic, and democratic Egypt—one that can serve as an anchor
of stability in the Middle East.
US commitment to improving Egypt’s economy is key to Egypt’s success.
The Center for American Progress, 3/2/2013 (think tank), Mar. 2, 2013, US OFFICIALNEWS, Retrieved May 29, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis
The United States should demonstrate a commitment to improving the Egyptian economy; it will be
critical to restoring private-sector confidence. The United States can also expand opportunities for Egyptian businesses toparticipate in existing Egyptian Qualified Industrial Zones—special free-trade manufacturing zones that can access U.S. markets without tariff or
quota restrictions under certain conditions. The U.S. government can work with private investors in the region—such as Turkey and certain
countries in the Gulf —as well as U.S. businesses to support long-term investment in Egypt. Private-sector investment will be
particularly important in creating jobs in labor-intensive economic sectors to address the
unemployment crisis.
Cutting off aid would backfire in this crucial transition time.
The Center for American Progress, 3/2/2013 (think tank), Mar. 2, 2013, US OFFICIALNEWS, Retrieved May 29, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis
Despite calls from some in Congress to suspend annual U.S. military aid to Egypt over the current problems with the political transition, now
is not the time to cut off aid to Egypt. The overall aid package should be mutually negotiated with
Egypt over time—not suddenly cut off in a moment of crisis. Cutting off aid is a dramatic gesture only
to be used in the most extreme circumstances.
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Egypt remains fragile—US engagement is crucial to stability in Egypt and throughout
the Middle East.
The Center for American Progress, 2/1/2013 (think tank), Feb. 1, 2013, US OFFICIALNEWS, Retrieved May 29, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis
Violent clashes in Egypt during the past week underscored how fragile the overall situation remains in
the Middle East’s largest country. The deterioration in Egypt couldn’t come at a worse time of
upheaval across the Middle East, as Syria’s civil war rages, threats from Al Qaeda-affiliated groups stretch from the Persian Gulf
region to North Africa, and Iran moves to undermine regional stability. The United States needs to remain engaged in efforts
to influence the political and economic transition in Egypt, as well as bolster security there. Both actions will
require continued support for a full range of U.S. policy tools—such as the approximately $1.5 billion per year in
security and economic assistance—and a more robust diplomatic engagement with the multiple centers of power that haveemerged in Egypt during the past two years. U.S. assistance and support for Egypt must be reformed in the long run to reflect new realities. As
incoming Secretary of State John Kerry recently stressed, however, now is not the time to rashly cut off support to Egypt.Clearly, Egypt’s people and leaders will determine its trajectory, but the United States can play a positive role in shaping outcomes.
Egypt is in a crucial transition period—US engagement is critical to its future.
The Center for American Progress, 2/1/2013 (think tank), Feb. 1, 2013, US OFFICIALNEWS, Retrieved May 29, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis
Egypt remains in the early stages of what will likely be a protracted period of change. With so much uncertainty and change in
the broader region, the United States must continue to invest in building a stronger foundation for an
ongoing, mutually beneficial partnership with Egypt.
If the US cuts off assistance, Egypt will radicalize.
INVESTIGATIVE PROJECT ON TERRORISM, 1/10/2013 Jan. 10, 2013, Retrieved May 29,2013, from Lexis/Nexis
Relations between Iran and Egypt have steadily improved since Morsi, a longtime Muslim Brotherhood figure, was inaugurated in July. Morsi
also met with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad during his late August visit to Tehran for the Non-Aligned Movement summit. Syria will
be high on the agenda during Salehi's visit, according to Iran's Fars News Agency[10]. Iran and Egypt have competing interests in Syria, with the
Iranians backing the Assad regime and the Egyptians supporting their Muslim Brotherhood brethren in their rebellion. The meetings
between the Brotherhood and Iran send the message that Egypt will move closer to Iran if the United
States and other Western nations cut off aid, an unnamed Egyptian official told the Times.
Egypt is at a crisis point—resisting pressure to cut aid is vital to avoid all-out
catastrophe.
Aki Peritz, 4/2/2013 (The senior policy adviser for national security at Third Way), Apr. 2,2013, Retrieved May 30, 2013 from http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-
report/2013/04/02/gutting-aid-to-egypt-would-be-a-mistake-for-the-us
Egypt's tenuous steps toward democratic governance are stumbling – badly. The country is lurching
toward financial ruin, brutal street protests are erupting between political factions, the president indulges in anti-Semitism, and theMuslim Brotherhood continually cracks down on opposition forces and the media using tactics similar to those of the Mubarak government.
Coptic Christians remain targets for discrimination and physical attack, and the number of women being publicly assaulted is exploding. More
ominously, bread rations will be slashed this summer, portending new riots. And depressingly, secular political forces do not seem to be
coherently organizing to challenge the Brotherhood at the ballot box, as liberal opposition leader Mohammed el-Baradei has called for a
boycott of upcoming elections. Now, there is a steady drumbeat by certain members of Congress to reduce or
withhold altogether $1.5 billion in aid to Egypt until Cairo gets its act together – or until the Muslim
Brotherhood relinquishes power. This would be a mistake for America. Why? Because what some in the House
and Senate and others forget is that we don't really have a credible alternative for governance of the
world's largest Arab country.
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US support for Egypt’s military is crucial to stability.
Aki Peritz, 4/2/2013 (The senior policy adviser for national security at Third Way), Apr. 2,2013, Retrieved May 30, 2013 from http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-
report/2013/04/02/gutting-aid-to-egypt-would-be-a-mistake-for-the-us
First, we provide Egypt almost exclusively with military aid – about $1.3 billion annually (about $200 million
goes to improving economic conditions in the country). While the military's reputation has suffered lately, it
nonetheless remains one of the few secular institutions in a fragmented political landscape. While topmilitary officers are hardly "d" democrats, they did return to their barracks after the revolution – exactly the action that America wanted.
Egypt's military needs the aid to keep its troops paid on time. Cutting this funding won't further
stabilize the situation.
US military aid is crucial to stabilize the transition in Egypt.
Aki Peritz, 4/2/2013 (The senior policy adviser for national security at Third Way), Apr. 2,2013, Retrieved May 30, 2013 from http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-
report/2013/04/02/gutting-aid-to-egypt-would-be-a-mistake-for-the-us
America also spends about $1 million annually on International Military Education and Training (
IMET) programs,which bring Egyptian and other foreign officers to the U.S. for training. This infinitesimally small
amount of yearly aid does wonders for our foreign policy, as it means America has access to top military men around
the world. As CENTCOM Commander Gen. James Mattis recently informed Congress, "The value of American military-to-
military relationships is evident when you compare the transition in Egypt with events in Libya and
the ongoing brutality in Syria."
Cutting off aid to Egypt results in a failed Egyptian state.
Aki Peritz, 4/2/2013 (The senior policy adviser for national security at Third Way), Apr. 2,2013, Retrieved May 30, 2013 from http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-
report/2013/04/02/gutting-aid-to-egypt-would-be-a-mistake-for-the-us
Few say Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood are perfect – or even particularly desirable – partners. But they were more or
less democratically elected, and wishful thinking will not transform them into a liberal government,
nor will it erase Egypt's systemic problems. Punishing Morsi may feel satisfying, but it could weaken
the state to the point of failure. Religious conservatives will not vanish from the Egyptian political landscape. In the absence of real
alternatives to this government, gutting Cairo's foreign aid would be worse for the region, our allies, and our
interests.
US aid is critical to stability in Egypt.
Alexander Mette, 2013 (writes about domestic politics and democracy issues in the MiddleEast and North Africa), 2013, Retrieved May 30, 2013, from
http://www.policymic.com/articles/24863/egyptian-revolution-is-egypt-now-headed-for-civil-
war
Meanwhile, Egypt has received the first of 20 F-16s scheduled to be delivered this year by the U.S. as part of the annual $1.2 billion in militaryaid. The predicament faced by President Morsi, who finds himself unable to raise the price of bread
that millions depend on, the looming political instability and economic stagnation represents a
discrepancy of interests and actions on behalf of the U.S. If we want to support peace and stability in
Egypt, that $1.2 billion would buy a lot of bread.
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US cooperation with Egypt is critical to US power projection.
Aki Peritz, 4/2/2013 (The senior policy adviser for national security at Third Way), Apr. 2,2013, Retrieved May 30, 2013 from http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-
report/2013/04/02/gutting-aid-to-egypt-would-be-a-mistake-for-the-us
And America has real security requirements with Egypt beyond keeping the peace with Israel. Forexample, U.S. Navy ships often transit through the Suez Canal; if it were closed, our vessels would
have to sail around Africa to arrive at the Persian Gulf, crimping our capabilities in the event of, say, a
conflict with Iran. Because of our aid, the U.S. military can also use Egyptian airspace.
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Impacts: Aid to Egypt Key to Egypt’s Economy
US aid to Egypt bolsters its economy.
ARAB FINANCE, Mar. 13, 2013, Retrieved May 29, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis"Since it opened last year, the Tamayouz Center has helped almost 3,700 Alexandria businesses cut through bureaucratic red tape to open new
small and medium size firms in record time," said Ambassador Patterson. "These smaller firms are the engine of economic growth-they create
jobs that Egypt needs and new economic opportunities for the people of Alexandria. We are pleased that USAID supported the creation of this
Center, and we are working with USAID, the Government of Egypt, and the Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce to establish similar
centers in key cities across Egypt." Ambassador Patterson and Federation of Chambers of Commerce President Ahmed Wakil toured the
Tamayouz Center and met with businesses that had recently established themselves through Tamayouz, where 65% of clients reported they
opened a new venture in less than an hour. "The United States is committed to helping the people of Egypt re-
energize their economy by creating jobs," said the Ambassador. "Secretary of State John Kerry during his visit
to Egypt pledged $190 million to support Egypt's economy, and we delivered that aid this week . We alsoare moving forward with $60 million of assistance for the Egyptian-American Enterprise Fund that is designed, like the Tamayouz Center, to
help small and medium sized enterprises grow and create jobs for the Egyptian people. This work will also improve Egypt's
rating in ease of doing business reports, which should attract more foreign direct investment." TheTamayouz model makes it easier for Egyptians to start and operate businesses by bringing registration, licensing, and other required
government processes together under one roof. It allows business owners to obtain both the ministerial approvals for starting a business and
the municipal approvals for operating a business.
Economic assistance is our primary mode of engagement with Egypt.
The Center for American Progress, 2013 (think tank), Mar. 2, 2013, US OFFICIAL NEWS, RetrievedMay 29, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis
The offer of economic assistance has become a principal means of engagement with Egypt. Current U.S.policy is centered on the notion that the prospect of support for economic stabilization can build U.S. credibility with a range of Egyptians,
which creates leverage to hold discussions with Egypt’s leaders on the next stages of political reform. The rationale is that
economic support—combined with continued bilateral security cooperation—can help Egypt move
forward on a stable path of democratic and economic reform and strengthen U.S.-Egyptian bilateral
ties.
US aid to Egypt has shown success.
The Center for American Progress, 2013 (think tank), Mar. 2, 2013, US OFFICIAL NEWS,Retrieved May 29, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis
Two years into the transition, however, it remains uncertain how much leverage the United States has
managed to build for itself inside Egypt. The current policy approach, with its focus on the links
between security and economics, has served some U.S. national security interests in the short term;
the approach was, for example, instrumental in managing the dangerous security situation in the Gaza
Strip in November 2012, when the barrage of rocket attacks from Palestinian terrorists into Israel
nearly erupted into a wider conflict. Egypt played a pivotal role in helping de-escalate that conflict.
Assistance to Egypt is crucial to economic development.Senator Robert Menendez, 2013 (Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee), May 15,2013, CONGRESSIONAL DOCUMENTS AND PUBLICATIONS, Retrieved May 29, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis
Third, we need to consider targeted economic assistance programs. Unemployment among youth is
one of our biggest challenges and potential threats. The IFI community must continue to work with
countries like Egypt to support economic development, harness available talent, and help translate it
into long-term growth.
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Impact Module: Democracy Promotion
A) Cuts will come for foreign aid:John Lyman, 2/15/2011 (staff writer, “Foreign Aid on the Budget Chopping Block,”http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2011/02/15/foreign-aid-on-the-budget-chopping-
block/, Accessed 6/26/2013, rwg)
In the past month there have been revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt , unrest in Yemen, Bahrain and Iran and historic
elections have been held in Sudan. Despite these seismic positive global shifts policymakers on Capitol Hill are
calling into question the necessity of foreign aid.¶ Contrary to conservative claims and popular perception foreign aid constitutes less
than 1% of the federal budget. Yet policymakers argue that foreign aid and discretionary spending lie at the heart
of the current and long-term fiscal health of the United States .¶ It is because of this misperception that
policymakers are able to argue for the termination of foreign assistance. Counter arguments are less persuasivebecause when policymakers argue that if something is not done to fix the U.S. economy our streets will fill with Greek type protests.
B)
Cuts to foreign aid threaten democracy promotion.John Lyman, 2/15/2011 (staff writer, “Foreign Aid on the Budget Chopping Block,”http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2011/02/15/foreign-aid-on-the-budget-chopping-
block/, Accessed 6/26/2013, rwg)
Out of this speech the National Endowment of Democracy was created. Efforts like the NED are needed
throughout the world to both promote democracy which creates stability in global regions and helps
America’s strategic interests. Americas push for democracy promotion would be hampered if the
foreign aid budget were viewed as the only way to get the American fiscal house in order.
C) Democracy promotion key to preventing inevitable extinctionDiamond, 1995 senior research fellow at Hoover Institution, 95
(Larry, Promoting Democracy in the 1990s: Actors and Instruments, Issues and Imperatives, A Report tothe Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, December 1995, p. 6)This hardly exhausts the lists of threats to our security and well-being in the coming years and decades. In the former Yugoslavia nationalist
aggression tears at the stability of Europe and could easily spread. The flow of illegal drugs intensifies through increasingly powerful
international crime syndicates that have made common cause with authoritarian regimes and have utterly corrupted the institutions of
tenuous, democratic ones. Nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons continue to proliferate. The very source
of life on Earth, the global ecosystem, appears increasingly endangered. Most of these new and
unconventional threats to security are associated with or aggravated by the weakness or absence of
democracy, with its provisions for legality, accountability, popular sovereignty, and openness.
http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2011/02/15/foreign-aid-on-the-budget-chopping-block/http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2011/02/15/foreign-aid-on-the-budget-chopping-block/http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2011/02/15/foreign-aid-on-the-budget-chopping-block/http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2011/02/15/foreign-aid-on-the-budget-chopping-block/http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2011/02/15/foreign-aid-on-the-budget-chopping-block/http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2011/02/15/foreign-aid-on-the-budget-chopping-block/http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2011/02/15/foreign-aid-on-the-budget-chopping-block/http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2011/02/15/foreign-aid-on-the-budget-chopping-block/
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Impacts: Now Key Time for Egypt
Egypt is at a crucial juncture in its reforms.
John Kerry, 2013 (Secretary of State), Apr. 18, 2013, CQ TRANSCRIPTIONS, Retrieved May 29, 2013,from Lexis/Nexis
There -- and perhaps in Egypt -- Egypt is more of a question mark right now. I mean, I'll just tell you, there are a
lot of ifs about Egypt at this moment. And we've been working very, very hard with the Egyptian
government to try to bring them to a point where they're prepared to embrace important reforms
that are key to the IMF money, to be more inclusive with the opposition, to build out civil society, to live up to their
promises regarding democracy, and it's a question mark whether they're going to make the right
choices.
The current crisis in Egypt risks civil war.
Zvi Mazellast, 2013 (a fellow of The Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs and former ambassador to
Romania, Egypt and Sweden), Apr. 2, 2013, Retrieved May 30, 2013 fromhttp://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Foundering-in-quicksand-Is-there-hope-for-Egypt-308374
For the Muslim Brotherhood, the long awaited dream come true is turning into a nightmare. Havingsurvived 80 years of persecution to achieve power democratically, they suddenly find themselves the focus of widespread popular hatred.
Never have Egyptians been in such dire economic traits. Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi,
however, is not about to give up and make way for new presidential elections. The Brotherhood will
spare no effort to stay in power. Such is the depth of the economic, social and political crisis that the
threat of civil war appears all too real.
This is a critical time for Egypt—US aid is key to its stability.
The Center for American Progress, 2013 (think tank), Mar. 2, 2013, US OFFICIAL NEWS,Retrieved May 29, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis
2013 will be another pivotal year in Egypt’s transition, and the United States has a strong interest in
seeing stability, prosperity, and pluralism in Egypt. Egypt also needs support from the United States to advance its strategicand economic interests in the long run. In the past two years, the Obama administration has taken a pragmatic approach to managing the
transition in Egypt. But the looming political legitimacy crisis and the growing internal divisions require that
the United States more clearly present its interests and values in support of true democratic and
inclusive political reform in Egypt. The Obama administration needs to prepare a range of options if Egypt’s current trends towardshutting down dissent and closing off open debate continue. This should include examining ways to introduce more flexibility in bilateral
assistance so that more emphasis is placed on supporting inclusive democratic governance. It should also include considering options for
completely renegotiating the basic terms of the bilateral relationship if the recent worrisome trends in Egypt’s political transition continue.
The revolution in Egypt is in crisis.
Patrick Leahy, 2013 (Senator), Apr. 18, 2013, CQ TRANSCRIPTIONS, Retrieved May 29, 2013, from
Lexis/NexisWe focus on the world today, on North Korea, nuclear power, young untested dictator, recklessly threatening his neighbors. In the Middle
East, we see Syria humanitarian catastrophe on a scale few would have imagined. The revolution in
Egypt, which held such promise, now is at a troubling turn. The economy's on life sciences.
Egypt is on the brink of collapse.
SOUTH ASIAN MEDIA NETWORK, Mar. 2, 2013, Retrieved May 29, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis
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Sisi treated each of the politicians with friendliness and respect, said security sources, but made his point clear: chaos in the Suez cities
endangered the Canal and threatened the stability of the state . He told the political leaders they must compromiseover their differences. "The country was facing a political stalemate that had to be ended to prevent a downward spiral of events. Now is not
the time to dissolve a newly elected state institution (the presidency)," said the security source with links to the military. To ram the
point home, Sisi went public with his message the next day, warning that political unrest was pushing
the state to the brink of collapse.
Egypt is in crisis—there is struggle for control now.
The Center for American Progress, 2013 (think tank), Mar. 2, 2013, US OFFICIAL NEWS,Retrieved May 29, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis
As Egypt moves toward another round of parliamentary elections beginning in April, the country
remains in a series of interlinked security, political, economic, and social crises. These crises are the
result of an inconclusive struggle for power among competing political forces inside the country, as wellas a daunting set of policy challenges that Egypt has faced—but not effectively addressed—for decades. Over the past year, one group—the
Muslim Brotherhood, its affiliated Freedom and Justice Party—worked to dominate the political transition, moving forward with a new Egyptian
Constitution in late 2012 in a manner that undermined the legitimacy and credibility of the country’s political transition and the resulting
political order. A political legitimacy crisis looms in Egypt, driven by two main factors. First is the messy political transition,which suffers from a lack of inclusivity on the part of the Islamist parties that won a majority in the 2012 parliamentary and presidentialelections. Since 2011 Egypt has seen four distinct phases in its political transition: The Tahrir Revolution: Popular protests that ended with
President Hosni Mubarak’s resignation Military rule: Political transition managed by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces Contested and
unclear transition: Delicate and often contentious power sharing between the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces and the Islamist-
dominated civilian government Reassertion of presidential dominance: Expansion of executive authority under President Mohamed Morsi and
increasing conflict between the Muslim Brotherhood and the other key centers of political power The second factor contributing to the
looming political legitimacy crisis is a disorganized political opposition and the lack of a coherent viable political alternative to the Islamists.
The opposition’s lack of clear strategy to advance their own agenda—exemplified by their recent call to boycott the
next round of parliamentary elections—is likely to contribute to further undermining the trust in and support for
Egypt’s political institutions.
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Tens of millions of Egyptians are in economic crisis.
The Center for American Progress, 2013 (think tank), Mar. 2, 2013, US OFFICIAL NEWS, RetrievedMay 29, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis
This political legitimacy crisis has exacerbated the problems of governance by causing a stalemate on
important national policy questions that the country faces—particularly questions about the economyand key legal reforms. The deadlock has worsened the daunting economic problems facing tens of
millions of poor Egyptians, such as a growing national deficit and a 13 percent unemployment rate.Restrictions on freedoms such as speech, expression, and assembly remain in place, and many Egyptians fear that the coming year will bring
further restrictions on basic rights.
There is currently a security crisis within Egypt.
The Center for American Progress, 2013 (think tank), Mar. 2, 2013, US OFFICIAL NEWS,Retrieved May 29, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis
All of this comes at a time when new security problems have emerged inside of Egypt, including
ongoing threats within the Sinai Peninsula from terrorist organizations and growing problems of law
and order and basic security. A recent example of this dynamic was seen in the deadly clashes earlier this year at demonstrationscommemorating the second anniversary of the early 2011 revolt against former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and protests over deathsentences handed down to soccer fans involved in deadly riots at a match in Port Said last year.
A perfect storm of crises exists in Egypt now.
The Center for American Progress, 2013 (think tank), Feb. 1, 2013, US OFFICIAL NEWS, RetrievedMay 29, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis
Perfect storm brews in Egypt—interlinked security, political, and economic crises Clashes in the majorEgyptian cities of Cairo, Alexandria, and Port Said were triggered by a combination of protests commemorating the second anniversary of the
revolt that unseated then-President Hosni Mubarak and the sentencing of 21 soccer fans to death because of a riot after a soccer match more
than a year ago that left 74 people dead. The challenge to the authority of Egypt’s ruling Muslim Brotherhood has
become so severe that President Mohamed Morsi declared a state of emergency in Port Said and two other
cities along the Suez Canal, while Army head Gen. Abdul-Fattah al-Sisi “warned Egypt’s new Islamist leaders and their opponents that
‘their disagreement on running the affairs of the country may lead to the collapse of the state and threatens the future of the cominggenerations.’” Egypt’s rival political leaders came together to renounce the recent violence, giving hope that however dysfunctional the
transition process remains, we are not likely to see a systemic breakdown in the country. These clashes are in great measure a response to the
unresolved tensions within Egyptian politics and society that have built up in the two years since the overthrow of President Mubarak and the
rise to power of the Muslim Brotherhood. The confluence of events—the anniversary of the 2011 protests and the
soccer riot sentencing—have acted like a lit match on the tinder box of Egyptian dissatisfaction with
the current state of the country. The simmering political and societal conflicts that have plagued Egypt
since Mubarak’s overthrow—including a contentious constitutional referendum and a continuation of some of the Mubarak
regime’s worst excesses—are boiling over, and they will continue to create problems if they are not genuinely
addressed by Egyptian leaders. Egypt is facing three interlinked crises: internal security, political
distrust, and economic uncertainty.
Instability continues to plague Egypt.
The Center for American Progress, 2013 (think tank), Feb. 1, 2013, US OFFICIAL NEWS, RetrievedMay 29, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis
The current violence is just the latest episode in a broader trend of insecurity that has been plaguing
Egypt since Mubarak’s overthrow in 2011. Ordinary crime has skyrocketed while personal security has declined.
Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula is growing increasingly vulnerable and has become a lawless breeding ground
for arms smuggling, human trafficking, and violent Islamist extremism. Weapons from Libya and Sudan flowthrough Egyptian territory, providing the violent Islamist extremists and jihadists operating in the Sinai with added firepower. Many terrorists
released in the chaos that surrounded Mubarak’s overthrow remain at large, plotting attacks against U.S. targets. One of those terrorists,
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Mohamed al-Zawahiri—brother of Al Qaeda central chief Ayman al-Zawahiri— has threatened attacks against France and its partners over the
intervention in Mali. He remains at large.
The current Egyptian government faces a legitimacy crisis.
The Center for American Progress, 2013 (think tank), Feb. 1, 2013, US OFFICIAL NEWS, RetrievedMay 29, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis
Political legitimacy crisis Egypt’s security crisis, however, is in many ways a product of the broader
crisis of political legitimacy that the Muslim Brotherhood-led government and state now face. The
quality of Egypt’s political transition from the Mubarak dictatorship progressively deteriorated over
the course of 2012 through a complicated series of twists and turns that resulted in serious questions
about the Muslim Brotherhood’s true commitment to pluralism and democratic principles.
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Impacts: Worsened Crisis = War
Worsened crisis in Egypt risks civil war.
Hamza Hendawi, 2012 (writer for the AP), Nov. 28, 2012, Retrieved May 30, 2013, fromhttp://bigstory.ap.org/article/egypt-crisis-raises-fears-second-revolution
With the country still reeling from the aftershocks of the 18-day uprising that toppled Mubarak's 29-
year regime, activists and analysts warn that any escalation carries the risk of a second, and possibly
bloody, revolution — pitting Islamists against non-Islamists, including liberals, women and minority
Christians. Ominous signs abound. Anti-Morsi crowds have attacked at least a dozen offices belonging
to the Brotherhood across the nation since last week. Clashes between the two sides have left at least
two dead and hundreds wounded. The violence and polarization has led to warnings from some
newspaper columnists and the public at large of the potential for "civil war."
Worsening crisis in Egypt risks civil war.
DEMOCRACY DIGEST, 2012 Nov. 30, 2012, Retrieved May 30, 2013, fromhttp://www.demdigest.net/blog/2012/11/egypts-polarizing-crisis-fuelling-worries-of-descent-into-
violence/
“At this point, things seem to be escalating in all ways, and there are no real attempts to contain
them. It raises concern about the stability of the political system.” The growing polarization of
Islamists and secular Egyptians, exacerbated by Morsi’s self -empowering edict, could even escalate into
civil war, analysts suggest.
Egypt at risk of a civil war in the present system.
THE NATIONAL, 2012 Dec. 7, 2012, Retrieved May 30, 2013 fromhttp://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/civil-war-in-egyptThe Arabic language press has dedicated a great deal of its opinion sections to Egypt's constitutional predicament and the political conduct of
the Muslim Brotherhood. Several articles pointed out that President Mohammed Morsi's constitutional declaration sparkedan unprecedented polarisation among Egyptians, running the risk of plunging the country into a civil
war. The Brotherhood's message to all Egyptians, not just the opposition, came through loud and
clear: "Either we accept their dictatorship … or they would trigger civil war," wrote Nawara Negm in the Cairo-based paper Al Tahrir.
Tensions in Egypt could result in a civil war.
Charles McPhedran and Daria Solovieva, 2012 (Special to The Washington Times), Nov. 28, 2012,Retrieved May 30, 2013 from http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/nov/28/power-struggle-in-
egypt-raises-fear-of-civil-war/?page=all
CAIRO — The power struggle between Egypt’s Islamic and secularist forces intensified Wednesday, with
some analysts warning of civil war and supporters of the Islamist government planning to march Saturday on a central square inCairo where opponents have been holding a sit-in for more than a week. Fears of violent street clashes between
supporters and opponents of President Mohammed Morsi grew a day after more than 200,000
demonstrators crowded into Tahrir Square, the iconic scene of last year’s Arab Spring protest, todenounce the president for decrees he issued last week that put him above any oversight, including the judiciary.
Further instability would spread throughout the region.
Bradley Hope, 2013 (staff writer), Mar. 4, 2013, THE NATIONAL, Retrieved May 29, 2013, fromLexis/Nexis
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The US secretary of state reinforced Washington´s position that Egypt urgently needs to restore
security and bolster the economy nearly two years after a popular uprising brought down Hosni
Mubarak´s authoritarian government. ¬ »The path to that future has clearly been difficult and much
work remains,« Mr Kerry said after two days of meetings with businessmen, officials and political
groups. ¬ Egypt has historically been a strategic ally of the US but Washington is concerned thatfurther unrest could have knock-on effects across the region.
Morsi is helping to stabilize Egypt.
Aki Peritz, 2013 (The senior policy adviser for national security at Third Way), Apr. 2, 2013, RetrievedMay 30, 2013 from http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-report/2013/04/02/gutting-aid-to-
egypt-would-be-a-mistake-for-the-us
As much as outside observers are apprehensive about the Muslim Brotherhood's actual long-term
intentions vis-à-vis Israel, Morsi has not done much to change the situation. Since taking office in
2012, he has yet to violate or change the peace treaty between the two nations. Furthermore, he
helped broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in late 2012. Most interestingly, Cairo has been
hard at work smashing the tunnels that run from the Sinai to the Gaza Strip, which were used to bring
weapons into Egypt, but also to smuggle goods that nourish Hamas's mini-state. According to the
Economist, "Gleeful Israeli soldiers say that their coordination with their Egyptian counterparts at the
border is better than under Hosni Mubarak's old regime."
The alternatives to Morsi are worse and will result in total chaos.Aki Peritz, 2013 (The senior policy adviser for national security at Third Way), Apr. 2, 2013, Retrieved
May 30, 2013 from http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-report/2013/04/02/gutting-aid-to-
egypt-would-be-a-mistake-for-the-us
And many of the alternatives to Morsi & Co. are certainly worse. A complete state breakdown is in no
one's best interest, except for criminals, terrorists and those who profit from disorder. Despite
political infighting, the ultraconservative Salafists – whose al –Nour party controls a quarter of Egypt's
parliament – are well-organized and unsympathetic to Western interests. The fighting in Cairo andPort Said could spread to other areas, crippling any government. The prospect for total chaos is very
real.
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Food Aid Trade-off Impact Module
A) Foreign aid cuts will come from food aidSarah Stuteville, 5/30/13 (staff writer,
http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2021091028_sarahstoryxml.html , accessed 6/24/13, DLM)
Yates says U.S. farmers and maritime industries (that ship U.S.-grown food abroad) act as powerful
constituents for food aid. Because they benefit from a commodities-based food-aid system, they fight
hard to ensure its continued funding in a political culture where international aid is often on the
chopping block.
B) US food aid solves hunger.Miami Herald 13 (MIAMI HERALD EDITORIAL “Food aid that works” June 18, 2013http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/06/18/3458152/food-aid-that-works.html)
Thanks to U.S. food aid, 3 billion people in 150 countries have been spared hunger and their lives
saved since the program began in 1954 . It’s been one of the most successful foreign-policy programs
to build good will across the globe.¶ Now Congress is considering a new way to deliver the food that would translate into morepeople getting fed at no extra cost to American taxpayers. More food for the buck is a win-win — except for entrenched special interests that
prefer the inefficient and expensive status quo.¶ This week the U.S. House is taking up the farm bill, and there’s a bipartisan effort afoot to end
the inefficient system that has been produced over the decades thanks to lobbying by Big Agribusiness in farm states. President Obama
has proposed that almost half (45 percent) of the $1.5 billion requested in the 2014 federal budget for
food aid could be spent buying food from local farmers in the countries most in need, which would
result in feeding as many as 4 million more starving people.
C) Food shortages lead to World War III
Calvin, 98 (William Calvin, theoretical neurophysiologist at the University of Washington, AtlanticMonthly, January, The Great Climate Flip-Flop, Vol 281, No. 1, 1998, p. 47-64)
The population-crash scenario is surely the most appalling. Plummeting crop yields would cause some powerful
countries to try to take over their neighbors or distant lands -- if only because their armies, unpaid and lacking food,
would go marauding, both at home and across the borders. The better-organized countries would attempt to use their
armies, before they fell apart entirely, to take over countries with s ignificant remaining resources, driving out or
starving their inhabitants if not using modern weapons to accomplish the same end: eliminating competitors for the remaining food . This
would be a worldwide problem -- and could lead to a Third World War -- but Europe's vulnerability is particularlyeasy to analyze. The last abrupt cooling, the Younger Dryas, drastically altered Europe's climate as far east as Ukraine. Present-day Europe has
more than 650 million people. It has excellent soils, and largely grows its own food. It could no longer do so if it lost the extra warming from theNorth Atlantic. .
http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2021091028_sarahstoryxml.htmlhttp://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2021091028_sarahstoryxml.htmlhttp://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2021091028_sarahstoryxml.html
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Food Aid Module Internals
Food aid will be traded-off with.
Sarah Stuteville, 5/30/13 (staff writer,
http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2021091028_sarahstoryxml.html , accessed 6/24/13, DLM)
East of the mountains, Scott Yates of the Spokane-based Washington Grain Commission says he’s worried that a cash-based
food-aid system would be more vulnerable to budget cuts.¶ “Whenever there is a place to cut, food
aid is cut,” says Yates whose organization proudly boasts that Washington wheat has been shipped to countries like Ethiopia,
Eritrea, Iraq and Afghanistan “And if you have a cash-based system there’s going to be no one arguing for it.”
http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2021091028_sarahstoryxml.htmlhttp://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2021091028_sarahstoryxml.htmlhttp://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2021091028_sarahstoryxml.html
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Food Aid Solves Hunger
Food aid saves 50 million people each year
Elliott and McKitterick 13 (Kimberly Ann Elliott and William McKitterick, “Food Aid for the 21stCentury: Saving More Money, Time, and Lives” Center for Global Development. June 2013
http://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/archive/doc/full_text/CGDBriefs/3120442/food-aid-for-the-
21st-century.html)
American food aid helps around 50 million people every year, but it could reach millions more. Requiring it to be inkind, purchased in the United States, and transported on US-flagged ships makes food aid less efficient and effective than it should be.
President Obama’s FY2014 budget would relax the in-kind and cargo preference requirements and by eliminate monetization—the practice of
donating food aid to private organizations that sell it in developing countries to fund their projects. The US Agency for
International Development estimates that such reforms would help food aid reach as many as 4
million more people for the same amount of money. We estimate the effect to be even greater:
between 4 million and 10 million. The costs of food aid reform are few, but the benefits would be
substantial. Now is the time to bring food aid into the 21st century.
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Food Aid Impact Module Extensions: Food Aid Solves Poverty
A) Food aid solves povertySarah Stuteville, 5/30/13 (staff writer,
http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2021091028_sarahstoryxml.html , accessed 6/24/13, DLM)
I’ve seen U.S. food aid at work in many of the countries I’ve visited around the world. From Ethiopia
to Pakistan, those white sacks with red and blue “USAID: From the American people” stamped
across them have meant relief for people experiencing disaster, conflict or extreme poverty.
B) Poverty is the equivalent to a thermonuclear war between Russia and the US – this systemic impact is bigger and more probable than any war
James Gilligan, 2000 Department of Psychiatry at Harvard Medical School, 2000 edition, Violence:
Reflections on Our Deadliest Epidemic, p. 195-196The 14 to 18 million deaths a year caused by structural violence compare with about 100,000 deaths
per year from armed conflict. Comparing this frequency of deaths from structural violence to the
frequency