aiding consumer decisions on the web gary mcclelland university of colorado @ boulder with...
TRANSCRIPT
Aiding Consumer Decisions on the Web
Gary McClelland
University of Colorado @ Boulder
with assistance from
Barbara Fasolo & Katharine Lange
Presented at The Wharton SchoolUniversity of Pennsylvania
26 February 2001
Today’s Tour
• Consumer-Aiding Websites• Winnowing via EBA, LEX, MCD,
WADD, MAUT, etc.• Why Attribute Correlations Matter• Typical Attribute Correlations• Effects of Attribute Correlations
Decision Guides
Decision Guides
MouseLab IDB (ca. 1990)
Consumer Reports
Consumer Reports Online
Paid Subscriptions:532,000 in Feb 2001
IDB—Options x Attributes
www.decide.com
IDB—Attributes x Options
www.point.com
IDB—46 x 5
www.activebuyersguide.com
IDB—Continued
www.activebuyersguide.com
IDB—Still More
www.activebuyersguide.com
IDB—More Yet!
www.activebuyersguide.com
IDB—The End
www.activebuyersguide.com
Many, Many Options
www.personalogic.com www.point.com
Aiding the Consumer
•Winnowing•Comparing•Evaluating•Recommending•Choosing
Company Sites:Not Much Help
www.panasonic.com
Compared to What?
www.panasonic.com
Additional Info
www.panasonic.com
Compared to Other Phone?
www.panasonic.com
Automobile Sites:This is Decision Help?
IDBs Designed for Decision MakingSort by Attribute, Eliminate Options, Choose
www.cdw.com
Decision Sites in Transition
Retail Sales 2000:4Q
• Online: Up 36% to $8.7 billion• Online: > 1.1 % of total retail• Total: Up 5.4%
Source: Reuters, 16 Feb 2001
Today’s Tour
• Consumer-Aiding Websites• Winnowing via EBA, LEX, MCD,
WADD, MAUT, etc.• Why Attribute Correlations Matter• Typical Attribute Correlations• Effects of Attribute Correlations
Winnowing Options
• Setting Attribute Cutoffs (EBA)• Sorting along Attributes
(LEX,TB)• Weighting Attributes (WADD)• Measuring Tradeoffs (MAUT)
Winnowing:LexicographicO1 O2 O3 O4 O5
A1 ++ + + + 0A2 – 0 + – ++A3 – + ++ + ++A4 – 0 –– + ++A5 – 0 0 + 0
LEX
Winnowing:Elimination by Aspects
O1 O2 O3 O4 O5
A1 ++ + + + 0A2 – 0 + – ++A3 – + ++ + ++A4 – 0 –– + ++A5 – 0 0 + 0
EBA
Winnowing:Satisficing
O1 O2 O3 O4 O5
A1 ++ + + + 0A2 – 0 + – ++A3 – + ++ + ++A4 – 0 –– + ++A5 – 0 0 + 0
SAT
Winnowing: Most Confirming
DimensionsO1 O2 O3 O4 O5
A1 ++ + + + 0A2 – 0 + – ++A3 – + ++ + ++A4 – 0 –– + ++A5 – 0 0 + 0
MCD
Winnowing:Adding (Equal Wts)
O1 O2 O3 O4 O5
A1 ++ + + + 0A2 – 0 + – ++A3 – + ++ + ++A4 – 0 –– + ++A5 – 0 0 + 0
ADD
Winnowing:ImplicationsO1 O2 O3 O4 O5
A1 ++ + + + 0A2 – 0 + – ++A3 – + ++ + ++A4 – 0 –– + ++A5 – 0 0 + 0
LEX SAT EBA MCD ADD
Attribute Processing
Opt 1 Opt 2 Opt 3
Att A VA1 VA2 VA3
Att B VB1 VB2 VB3
Att C VC1 VC2 VC3
EBA orLEX orTakeBest
Elimination-by-Aspects
www.point.com
Elimination-by-Aspects
www.point.com
EBA—Are You Sure?
www.activebuyersguide.com
EBA & LEX
www.decide.com
Option Processing
Opt 1 Opt 2 Opt 3
Att A VA1 VA2 VA3
Att B VB1 VB2 VB3
Att C VC1 VC2 VC3
WADD or MAUT Score
WADD—Getting the Wts
www.personalogic.com
WADD—Weights & Values
mro.frictionless.com
Weight Profiles
mro.frictionless.com
WADD—Option Score
mro.frictionless.com
MAUT—Tradeoffs
www.activebuyersguide.com
MAUT—Global
www.activebuyersguide.com
Collaborative Filtering
• www.amazon.com
• movielens.umn.edu
• www.imdb.com
Today’s Tour
• Consumer-Aiding Websites• Winnowing via EBA, LEX, MCD,
WADD, MAUT, etc.• Why Attribute Correlations
Matter• Typical Attribute Correlations• Effects of Attribute Correlations
Positive Correlation = “Friendly Decision”
r = .21
Weight Insensitivity3 X1 + X2X1 + 3 X2
r= .21
Attribute AgreementX1 X2B BA GG FC CE DF ED A
r = .21
= .24
Equal Weights History
• Wilks (1938)• Gulliksen (1950)• Dawes & Corrigan (1974)• Einhorn & Hogarth (1975)• Wainer (1976)• Meehl (1999)
Equal Wts Correlations
Markets -> Nondominated Options
r = -.87
Weight Sensitivity!
3 X1 + X2X1 + 3 X2
r= -.87
Nondominated Shapes
Equal Wts Value Loss
X1 X2A EB DC CD BE A
Attribute Disagreement
r = -.87
= -1.0
Today’s Tour
• Consumer-Aiding Websites• Winnowing via EBA, LEX, MCD,
WADD, MAUT, etc.• Why Attribute Correlations Matter• Typical Attribute Correlations• Effects of Attribute Correlations
Real Choice Sets
• What are their attribute correlations?
• Are they approximately nondominated sets?
• Consumer Reports
Consumer Reports
Example CR Choice SetMtn Bikes
r = -.82
-P/Q Correlations from CR
-.17 Air Conditioners
-.27 Bike Helmets
+.16 Dishwashers
-.82 Mtn Bikes
-.74 Printers
-.49 Pro Ranges
-.28 Fridge
-.59 27” TVs
-.16 Vacuums
-.56 Wall Oven
-P/Q Correlations
Attribute Correlations from CR
+.35 Air Conditioners
+.07 Bike Helmets
-.03 Dishwashers
+.37 Mtn Bikes
+.18 Printers
+.47 Pro Ranges
-.06 Fridge
+.05 27” TVs
+.12 Vacuums
+.04 Wall Oven
Average r = –.05
O1 O2 O3 O4 O5
A1 ++ + + + 0A2 – 0 + – ++A3 – + ++ + ++A4 – 0 –– + ++A5 – 0 0 + 0
LEX SAT EBA MCD ADD
Today’s Tour
• Consumer-Aiding Websites• Winnowing via EBA, LEX, MCD,
WADD, MAUT, etc.• Why Attribute Correlations Matter• Typical Attribute Correlations• Effects of Attribute
Correlations
WebIDB
Sample Data Streams
Att Opt Time0 1 276
0 0 15951 0 8510 0 8590 1 8360 0 5350 1 9750 2 6520 3 6520 4 543
Att Opt Time1 4 5571 3 1660 2 2341 2 4721 1 765
2 1 2111 2 2 2519 2 3 10312 4 448
Attribute Focus
WebIDB cf. MouseLab
• WebIDB replicated MouseLab results– Attribute Focus is the default strategy– Increasing Attributes -> Attribute Focus– Increasing Options -> Less info, more var.
• Different result– Somewhat more information viewed in
WebIDB– Somewhat greater attribute focus in
WebIDB
Prior Research on Correlation Effects
• Johnson, Meyer & Ghose (1989)
• Theory: Negative –> Attribute-based
• Results: Null
• Bettman, Johnson, Luce & Payne (1993)
• Theory: Negative –> Option-based
• Results: Negative –> Option-based
Experiments
• Study 1– 8 att x 5 opts– Attribute
Correlation: Pos (.5) vs. Neg (-.14)
– 8 Matrices– Between Subjects
• Study 2– Within Subjects:
Switch after 4 Matrices
Proportion of Cells Visited
Attribute Visit S.D.
EqualAttention
SelectiveAttention
Payne Index =(Opt-Att)/(Opt+Att)
AttributeFocus
OptionFocus
Self-Ratings
Switch Attribute Correlation
Results Summary
• Default Strategy is Attribute Processing
• Negative Correlation —> Option Processing
• Immediate Sensitivity to Correlation• Quickly Switch to Option Processing• Amount of Information Constant
Research Questions
• What winnowing strategies do consumers use?
• Attribute-based unless forced towards Option-based by negative attribute correlations
Research Questions
• What winnowing strategies might consumers be willing to use if aided?
• And how do attribute correlations affect the use of such aids?
Correlations and EBA
Correlations and WADD
End of Tour
• Consumer-Aiding Websites• Winnowing via EBA, LEX, MCD,
WADD, MAUT, etc.• Why Attribute Correlations Matter• Typical Attribute Correlations• Effects of Attribute Correlations