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Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

Air Quality Modelling ApplicationsCanadian Meteorological CentreMeteorological Service of Canada

Air Quality Modelling Applications

Louis-Philippe Crevier

With contributions from:•Sophie Cousineau•Véronique Bouchet•Mourad Sassi•Sylvain Ménard•Richard Moffet•Dave Fox•Colin diCenzo

•Colleen Farrell•Gilles Morneau•Nedka Pentcheva•Hong Lin•Mike Moran•Paul Makar

Air Quality Modelling Applications Division, CMC



Overview

• Present AQ modelling applications activities across MSC

• Identify a few interesting results along the way



Topics

• PM Transboundary Transport Assessment• Emissions trading study• ICARTT support and real time AURAMS runs• CHRONOS real time scenarios• Regional modelling activities• Changes to emissions processing



PM Transboundary Transport Assessment

• Joint modelling effort with US EPA.• AURAMS, REMSAD and CMAQ scenarios were used to prepare input for

the modelling chapter• CMAQ input prepared by PYR using « emissions ON/OFF » scenarios

• AURAMS: • First policy application for AURAMS• Tried to evaluate the impact, in 2020, of proposed legislation on ambient

concentrations of PM• 4 emissions reduction scenarios were analysed using 2 case studies

(summer 1995 and winter 1998)

• Results:• The additional legislation provides benefits wrt legislation already in place

or coming into effect in the next few years• Changes in atmospheric PM in eastern North America in response to

changes in PM gaseous precursors are expected to vary strongly by season and in some areas to vary non-proportionally and even non-directionally

CMC/ARQI/PYRCMC/ARQI/PYR



Scenario description

Scenario Year Season

Base Case 1995 Summer

Control Case 2010 Summer Current + already passed legislationControl Case 2020 Summer

Policy Case 2010 Summer Additional set of policies on top of Control Case (e.g. Clear Skies)

Policy Case 2020 Summer

Base Case 1998 Winter

Control Case 2010 Winter

Control Case 2020 Winter

Policy Case 2010 Winter

Policy Case 2020 Winter

*

*

*

*

CMCCMC



July 8-18

Feb. 7-15

PM2.5 SO4 PM2.5 NO3 PM2.5 NH4

2020P - 2020B Scenario “Deltas” for SO2 and NOx Emission Reductions, July 1995 & Feb. 1998 Cases (AURAMS)

CMC/ARQICMC/ARQI

Example AURAMS input to PM Assessment



Evaluation of Emissions Trading scenarios

• Work under Ozone Annex involving NRCan, MSC, EPS and EPA

• Goal:• Assuming a cap-and-trade system for the EGU sector

existed in Canada, evaluate the potential impacts of different configurations of the system e.g. cross-border trading vs no cross-border trading

• A new Canadian module for the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) was created and is used to predict the impact of regulations and market pressures on the electric generation sector until 2020

CMCCMC



Integrated Planning Model

• Simulates the EGU sector and the different market constraints it is subjected to i.e. fuel prices, environmental regulations, plant maintenance, energy demand vs capacity

• Allows for fuel switching, installation of abatement technology, plant shut-down, plant construction and trading of emissions allowances

2. Evaluateconstraints

for each plant

3. Determine best course of action

for each plant

1. Calculate energydemand and capacity for

next model year

4. Create newgeneration capacity,

if required

• IPM calculates NOx and SO2 emissions for each plant. A post processing is required to get other emissions.

CMCCMC



Planned AURAMS runs

• 2 trading scenarios to evaluate • No cross-border trading• Cross-border trading allowed

• AURAMS East 42 km configuration will be used with same episodes as in PM Assessment

• Winter and summer cases in years 2010 and 2020 will be evaluated

• Once East is done AURAMS West 21 km config will be used to evaluate impact on BC and Prairies

CMCCMC



Current Status of IPM runs

Scenario Year Season Status

Base Case 1995 Summer running

Base Case 1998 Winter running

Cross-border 2010 Summer ready to run

2020 Winter

2010 Summer

2020 Winter

No cross-border 2010 Summer Waiting for IPM emissions

2020 Winter

2010 Summer

2020 Winter

CMCCMC



Example EGU emissions for two scenarios

Total SO2 Emissions in Canada

401300

639

310 261

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2010 2020Year

SO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

(Kil

oto

nn

es)

Cross-Border Trading No Cross-Border Trading

NOTE: 2000 Data EC 2000 CAC Inventory.

Total NOx Emissions in Canada

161 144

294

116 113

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2010 2020Year

NO

x E

mis

sio

ns

(Kilo

ton

nes

)

Cross-Border Trading No Cross-Border Trading

NOTE: 2000 Data EC 2000 CAC Inventory.

CMCCMC

23% SO2 emissions reduction for « No cross-border trading »

27% NOx emissions reduction for « No cross-border trading »



Real-time & Ensemble Forecasts

Daily run of AURAMS:

• 48h forecast at 42 km over East Domain• 48h forecast at 21 km over West Domain (almost ready)

Western forecasts with AURAMS being set-up:

• For PYR and PNR regional offices

• Preparation for Prairie 2005

• For ensemble forecast [ UBC project (R. Stull, L. DeRelle) ]

CMC/ARQI/PYR/PNRCMC/ARQI/PYR/PNR



CMC modelling support for ICARTT

• AURAMS• 1 48h forecast every day

• CHRONOS• 2 48h forecasts every day• 00 UTC: same as operational forecast, more outputs• 12 UTC: experimental ground-level ozone assimilation

• Special set of forward/back trajectories made available 4 times per day

• Products were timely, robust and proved useful• Similar set-up is being constructed for Prairie 2005

CMC/AQRB/ATLCMC/AQRB/ATL



Field Campaign Support (ICARTT / PRAIRIE 2005)

GEM 2.5 km output

Trajectories

AURAMS output

CMC/AQRB/ATLCMC/AQRB/ATL



AURAMS/CHRONOS Performances

Grid Timestep TIME (on IBM, 1 node, 8 CPUs)

AURAMS EAST(42 km res)

85x105x28 900s 2h30 / 24h

AURAMS WEST(21 km res)

148x124x28 900s 6h / 24h

AURAMS CONT(42 km res)

155x101x28 900s 4h30 / 24h

CHRONOS CONT(21 km res)

350x250x24 1h 2h45 / 48h

Nonetheless, during ICARTT, AURAMS 00 UTC 48h forecast was typically available by 8 EDT

CMCCMC



CHRONOS operational version (public)• 1 run/day (00Z), 48h forecast, • continental domain, 21km spatial res,• no data assimilation, • predicts O3, PM2.5 mass, PM10 mass CHRONOS experimental version (ICARTT)• 2 runs/day (00Z and 12Z), 48h forecast,• continental domain, 21 km spatial res,• assimilation of surface O3 data, • predicts O3, PM2.5 mass, PM10 mass, some speciated information in <2.5m

CHRONOS real-time scenarios (MSC)• 7 runs/day (00z), 24h forecast,• continental domain, 21km spatial res,• no data assimilation• On/Off runs for different regions

CHRONOS Applications

CMCCMC



CHRONOS Real Time Scenario Runs

• Objective• Experiment with real-time applications to support CWS

implementation

• Current set-up• Evaluation for both ozone and PM2.5 (starting in 2003)• Comparison based CWS standard exceedances• 7 CHRONOS scenarios are run everyday with different emissions

reductions (anthropogenic emissions turned off for specific regions)

• Conclusions:• Real-time scenarios are feasible and maintainable• We are ready for more subtle emissions reductions scenarios

CMCCMC



CMCCMC

# of days exceedingozone CWS for modelled ozone

June 1st to Sept. 30th 2003

Preliminary results for 2004 are comparable



CMCCMC

# of days exceedingPM2.5 CWS for modelled ozone

June 1st to Sept. 30th 2003

Preliminary results for 2004 are comparable



Pacific and Yukon

• Improve understanding of role of ammonia in chemistry and sea salt (G&Cs).

• A/Q ensemble experiments (with UBC). Add AURAMS and CHRONOS output to the ensemble.

• Impacts of AQ on visibility and lines of sight straddling the border (CMAQ application).

• Daily real-time CMAQ runs (UBC, regular model exercise increases understanding of transboundary flows).

• Upgrade CMAQ and SMOKE software of UBC AQ modelling system.

• Various emission scenarios (e.g. marine vessel emissions) runs and sensitivity tests using CMAQ on the NW-AIRQUEST domain.

PYRPYR



Ontario Region Modelling activities

• AURAMS application, focus on Great Lake area to support airshed characterization (BAQS)• Collaborating with Paul Makar to prepare set-up for

AURAMS run in support of SwOn/SeMi 2006

• CHRONOS evaluation for 2003 for specific Ontario sites is underway

OntarioOntario



Accounting for transboundary flow (GDAD of CWS)

• Three scenarios are run with AURAMS• All anthropogenic sources (A)• Sources within the jurisdiction set to zero (B)• Sources outside the jurisdiction set to zero (C)

• Total concentration = Local + transboundary + background• Local (jurisdiction) component: A - B• Transboundary component: A - C• Background: B + C - A

QuebecQuebec



Results for Trois-Rivieres (URS)

QuebecQuebec



Atlantic Region

• Evaluate Canadian contributions to local air quality problem.• Ran CHRONOS for a widespread ozone episode from June 2001. • Re-ran CHRONOS with all the Canadian emissions turned off, subtracted

the difference to get the contribution from Canadian emission sources • Compared the results with the measurements.

• Notes• Although there were some sites with elevated PM, the selected period was

not much of a PM episode. • Using CHRONOS/AURAMS with the same grid and configuration that

Quebec region uses.

• Preliminary conclusions:• On good air quality days with respect to ozone, the % contribution from

local sources is greater than from the US. On a bad AQ day wrt ozone, the contribution from the US is greater.

• Local contributions appear to be greater for PM than for ozone, although a case which was a worse PM episode may show something different.

AtlanticAtlantic



Canadian Contribution to PM at Sydney

Contribution of Canadian Emission Sources to Fine Particulate Matter at Sydney, NS -- June 15-22, 2001

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Date

24

hr

av

g [

PM

2.5

] (u

g/m

3)

CHRONOS - CAN contribution

CHRONOS - US Emissions Only

Measured

AtlanticAtlantic



PNRPNR

Annual CMAQ Model Run (2002)

• Objectives • Transboundary Transport – CAN/US, Provincial• Provincial Sulphur and Nitrogen Budgets• Regional Acid Deposition• Future Emission Scenarios

• Status • MM5 runs on Coarse Domain (Completed)• Preparation of Emission Inputs (Ongoing)• CMAQ runs on Coarse Domain (Start in Nov. 2004)



36km

12km

12km

4km

4km

Coarse Domain

Northern Domain

AB-SK Domain

Oil Sands

Edm-Calg

PNR CMAQ Modelling Domains

PNRPNR



PNR Support Projects

• 4km Area and Mobile Emissions (Completed)

• Gridded Agricultural Activity Data (Completed)

• Northern Emissions (Ongoing)

• Projected AB emissions for year 2010 (Ongoing)• Improving Biogenic Emissions by using the Canadian

National Forest Inventory (Ongoing)

PNRPNR



• The SMOKE emissions processor is in the process of being adapted for MSC AQ models

• Impacts:• More control on emissions data

• Quicker turn-around for emissions inventory QA/QC

• Still limited by data availability (year 2000 inventory)

• Status:• Official SMOKE release (2.1) with PS capability

• Initial ADOM-II speciation files for SMOKE is ready

• All components of SMOKE are working except biogenic emissions

• The first version is currently being tested with AURAMS & CHRONOS

CMC/ARQI/PNR/NRCCMC/ARQI/PNR/NRC

Adaptation of SMOKE for MSC Models

•* Collaboration withWeimin Jiang’s group at NRC, with AQRB scientists (Moran, Makar) and Dave Fox (EC PNR)



SMOKE Emissions – Western Domain

NH3 area emissions (g/s) – summer – 22 GMT, resolution : 5km

NO mobile emissions (g/s) – summer - 22 GMT, resolution: 5km

CMC/ARQI/PNR/NRCCMC/ARQI/PNR/NRC

Based on PNR 4 km emissions inventory



Summary

• AURAMS has started to be used in policy applications

• Modelling groups are collaborating and exchanging data (common grids, common inventories)

• Modelling infrastructures for real-time applications is getting more and more robust

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