air transport market potential: us-africa air transportation summit, miami, 2007
DESCRIPTION
Market characteristics, drivers and trends; direct service characteristics; the view of U.S. carriers – and what African airport stakeholders can do to shape that perceptionTRANSCRIPT
PASSENGER POTENTIAL:US - AFRICA MARKETSPASSENGER POTENTIAL:US - AFRICA MARKETS
USAfrica Air Transportation Summit June 7, 2007USAfrica Air Transportation Summit June 7, 2007
Presented by:
Mark DiamondDirector, SH&E, Inc.
Presented by:
Mark DiamondDirector, SH&E, Inc.
1
AgendaAgenda
1. Market Characteristics, Drivers and Trends
2. Direct Service Characteristics and Trends
3. The View of US Carriers – and What African Airport Stakeholders Can do to Shape Their Perception
1. Market Characteristics, Drivers and Trends
2. Direct Service Characteristics and Trends
3. The View of US Carriers – and What African Airport Stakeholders Can do to Shape Their Perception
2
AgendaAgenda
1. Market Characteristics, Drivers and Trends
2. Direct Service Characteristics and Trends
3. The View of US Carriers – and What African Airport Stakeholders Can do to Shape Their Perception
1. Market Characteristics, Drivers and Trends
2. Direct Service Characteristics and Trends
3. The View of US Carriers – and What African Airport Stakeholders Can do to Shape Their Perception
3
The US-Africa Passenger Market is a Fraction of the Size of Most Other US-International MarketsThe US-Africa Passenger Market is a Fraction of the Size of Most Other US-International Markets
Source: IATA Passenger Forecast CY 2005
USUS--International Passenger Flows International Passenger Flows (Millions)(Millions)CY 2005CY 2005
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.7
1.1
1.3
2.2
3.8
4.6
11.9
14.8
19.8
21.8
23.5
47.7
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
South Asia
Eastern/Central Europe
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Lower South America
Upper South America
Southwest Pacific
Northeast Asia
Caribbean
North America
Central America
Western Europe
Southern AfricaSouthern Africa
Northern AfricaNorthern Africa
Eastern AfricaEastern Africa
4
However, the Market Has Been Growing Rapidly and Has Considerable Upside PotentialHowever, the Market Has Been Growing Rapidly and Has Considerable Upside Potential
North AmericaNorth America--Overseas Markets: Overseas Markets: Historic Growth and Percentage Share by Partner RegionHistoric Growth and Percentage Share by Partner Region
Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook 2006. Data excludes intrSource: Boeing Current Market Outlook 2006. Data excludes intraa--North America marketNorth America market
7.3%
4.4%4.0%
3.4% 3.3%2.6%
2.0%
0.5%
3.9%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
China
Centra
l Ameri
ca
Southe
ast A
siaMiddle
East
Europ
eOce
ania
South
America
Northea
st Asia
Africa
Africa
19951995--2005 Average Annual 2005 Average Annual RPK GrowthRPK Growth
2005 Percentage Share of 2005 Percentage Share of RPKsRPKsby Regionby Region
NE Asia16%
Europe48%
Central America
14%
China5%
S America5%
Middle East2%
SE Asia5%
Oceania4%
SW Asia0.2%
AfricaAfrica0.5%0.5%
5
Propensity to Travel in Africa is Well BelowThat in Other World RegionsPropensity to Travel in Africa is Well BelowThat in Other World Regions
Sources: Population – United Nations Department of Social and Economic Affairs: Air Passengers - IATA
62.2
50.6
16.2
8.35.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Europe North America Latin American& Carribean
Asia AfricaAfricaAfrica
Annual Passengers per Thousand Population, Annual Passengers per Thousand Population, 20052005
6
10 Countries Account for 90% of Reported Origin-Destination Traffic Between the US and Africa10 Countries Account for 90% of Reported Origin-Destination Traffic Between the US and Africa
Ghana13%
South Africa23%
Egypt17%
Nigeria10%
Morocco6%
Kenya6%
Other10%
Ethiopia8%
Tanzania4%
Senegal1%
Uganda2%
Sources: US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey. Excludes passengers traveling exclusively on non-U.S. carriers
Percentage Distribution of Reported USPercentage Distribution of Reported US--Africa O&D Passengers by Country, 2006Africa O&D Passengers by Country, 2006
7
7.4% 6.6% 6.5% 6.3% 6.0% 5.8%4.5% 4.1% 4.1% 3.6%
12.8%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
SW Asia
Africa
S Am
China
SE Asia
Mideast
NE Asia
Europe
C Am
Ocean
ia
Intra-N
Am
6.9% 6.7% 6.3% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.1% 6.0% 5.4% 5.2% 4.8% 4.5% 4.3% 4.3% 3.8%2.7%
7.4%7.6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Indian S
ubMideas
tS A
frica
RussiaChina
Sub-Sah
Afri
ca AsiaAus/N
ZN A
frica
CISMex
icoS A
merica
Cent Euro
peJa
pan
C Ameri
caWest
Europe
Canada
Domestic
US
The US-Africa Market is Projected to Grow at a Rate That Surpasses Most Other US-International MarketsThe US-Africa Market is Projected to Grow at a Rate That Surpasses Most Other US-International Markets
Sources: Boeing Current Market Outlook, 2006; Airbus Global Market Forecast, 2006-2025.
Projected 20Projected 20--Year Average Annual Growth for US Traffic, by Partner RegionYear Average Annual Growth for US Traffic, by Partner Region
Boeing Forecast: North America Boeing Forecast: North America RPKRPK’’ss, 2005, 2005--20252025
Airbus Forecast: US Airbus Forecast: US RPKRPK’’ss, 2006, 2006--20252025
8
Key Growth DriversKey Growth Drivers
Rapid Growth of GDP
Burgeoning Trade in Natural Resources
Rapid Growth in Foreign Direct Investment, Particularly in the Energy Sector
Expansion in the Construction Sector
Development of Tourist Infrastructure & Initiatives to Increase Tourism
Year/Year Percentage Growth in GDP, Year/Year Percentage Growth in GDP, Africa vs. Total World, Africa vs. Total World, 20042004--2007E2007E
5.8%5.7%5.3%5.2%
4.5%
5.3%4.7%
5.3%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2004 2005 2006 2007E
Africa World
Sources: UN Economic Commission for Africa (Africa GDP), CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
9
72.8% 73.0% 73.1% 75.3% 74.9%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
New York-Cairo New York-Dakar New York-Casablanca
Atlanta-Ilho do Sal Washington-Dakar
Load Factors on Direct US-Africa ServicesHave Been Reasonably Healthy Load Factors on Direct US-Africa ServicesHave Been Reasonably Healthy
66.1% 60.5% 61.7% 62.7% 63.0% 65.9% 63.8% 70.0% 70.8% 66.8%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Source: US Department of Transportation T100
Load Factors on Each of the Top 5 Routes Exceeded 72% in 2006Load Factors on Each of the Top 5 Routes Exceeded 72% in 2006Average Load Factors on USAverage Load Factors on US--Africa Africa NonstopsNonstops, , 19971997--20062006
Average Load Factors on Top 5 Routes, Average Load Factors on Top 5 Routes, 20062006
10
US-Africa Yields are on a Par With the US-Far East Market, and Higher Than US-EuropeUS-Africa Yields are on a Par With the US-Far East Market, and Higher Than US-Europe
$0.06
$0.07
$0.08
$0.09
$0.10
$0.11
$0.12
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000Trip Length, Kilometers
Yiel
d, U
SD $
per
RPK
US-Canada
US-Caribbean
US-Central AmericaUS-South America
US-Europe
US-Middle East
US-Far East USUS--AfricaAfrica
US-Australia/Pacific
Yields in USYields in US--International Markets, 2006International Markets, 2006US Dollars per RPKUS Dollars per RPK
Source: Based on US DOT O&D Survey. Note: does not include trSource: Based on US DOT O&D Survey. Note: does not include trips that were exclusively on nonips that were exclusively on non--U.S. carriers. U.S. carriers.
11
Who is Flying? Nearly Two-Thirds of Passengers on US-Africa Direct Services are U.S. CitizensWho is Flying? Nearly Two-Thirds of Passengers on US-Africa Direct Services are U.S. Citizens
U.S. Citizens60%
Non-U.S. Citizens
40%
Sources: U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS)
This Has Positive Implications for Economic Impact on Africa,This Has Positive Implications for Economic Impact on Africa,and the Ability to Attract U.S. Carrier Service and the Ability to Attract U.S. Carrier Service
Percentage Breakdown, U.S. Citizens vs. NonPercentage Breakdown, U.S. Citizens vs. Non--U.S. Citizens, 2004U.S. Citizens, 2004
12
Nearly 80% of the US-Africa Market is Estimated to Connect in Another Region, Most Likely at a European HubNearly 80% of the US-Africa Market is Estimated to Connect in Another Region, Most Likely at a European Hub
USUS--Africa Market: Estimated True O&D Passengers and Percentage by Africa Market: Estimated True O&D Passengers and Percentage by Travel Routing Travel Routing ----Flying Direct vs. Connecting in Another RegionFlying Direct vs. Connecting in Another Region
Flying Direct24%
@ 600-700kConnecting Enroute
76%@ 1.9 - 2.3 mil
Sources: Estimates based on data from US Department of Transportation T100 and World Tourism Organization
13
US-Africa Travelers Have Numerous On-Line Travel Options on European Hub CarriersUS-Africa Travelers Have Numerous On-Line Travel Options on European Hub Carriers
via CDGvia CDG
via LHR & LGWvia LHR & LGW
via FRAvia FRA
via MXP & FCOvia MXP & FCO
via AMSvia AMS
via MADvia MAD
via LISvia LIS
via ZRHvia ZRH
via VIEvia VIE
via LHRvia LHR
14
European Airlines Offer US-Africa Travelers Hundreds of Weekly On-Line Connecting Opportunities at Their HubsEuropean Airlines Offer US-Africa Travelers Hundreds of Weekly On-Line Connecting Opportunities at Their Hubs
European Hub Carrier Service Opportunities European Hub Carrier Service Opportunities Between the US and Africa, Between the US and Africa, May 2007May 2007
Source: Official Airline Guide, June 2007
218
9661 60 57 48 34 26 22 21 16 14
161
6647 40
14
98135
226
9143735
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
AF/CDG BA/LHR AZ/MXP LH/FRA KL/AMS IB/MAD AZ/FCO TP/LIS LX/ZRH BA/LGW OS/VIE VS/LHR
To Africa To US
Weekly Frequencies from HubWeekly Frequencies from Hub
29
17
11 10 97 7 5 5 5 4 2
1215
52 2
58
14
61
58
0
510
1520
2530
35
AF/CDG BA/LHR KL/AMS LH/FRA IB/MAD AZ/MXP TP/LIS LX/ZRH AZ/FCO OS/VIE BA/LGW VS/LHR
To Africa To US
Nonstop Destinations Served from HubNonstop Destinations Served from Hub
15
AgendaAgenda
1. Market Characteristics, Drivers and Trends
2. Direct Service Characteristics and Trends
3. The View of US Carriers – and What African Airport Stakeholders Can do to Shape Their Perception
1. Market Characteristics, Drivers and Trends
2. Direct Service Characteristics and Trends
3. The View of US Carriers – and What African Airport Stakeholders Can do to Shape Their Perception
16
Current US-Africa Direct Service, June 2007Current US-Africa Direct Service, June 2007
Atlanta-Dakar-Johannesburg (7x/Week) DeltaJFK-Accra (4x/Week) DeltaJFK-Lagos (3x/Week) North AmericanBaltimore-JFK-Accra (1x/Week) North AmericanJFK-Cairo (7x/Week) EgyptairJFK-Casablanca (9x/Week) Royal Air MarocBoston-Praia (Cabo Verde) (3x/Week) TACVWashington IAD-Addis Ababa (6x/Week) EthiopianWashington IAD-Johannesburg (7x/Week) South African JFK-Dakar-Johannesburg (7x/Week) South African
Source: Official Airline Guide. Note: Ethiopian Airlines service to Addis Ababa via Rome.
Total: 47 Weekly Total: 47 Weekly NonstopsNonstops + 7 One+ 7 One--Stops (via Europe)Stops (via Europe)
17Source: Official Airline Guide, May 2007. In cases where a single aircraft from the US serves 2 destinations in Africa, seats are allocated 50:50 to each destination.
8 African Countries Currently Receive Direct Service from the US8 African Countries Currently Receive Direct Service from the US
Cape VerdeCape VerdeSenegalSenegal
MoroccoMorocco
NigeriaNigeriaGhanaGhana
EgyptEgypt
EthiopiaEthiopia
SouthSouthAfricaAfrica
34.0%
17.9%
13.1%
12.9%
7.3%
5.0%
1.5%
8.2%
The Top 4 Countries The Top 4 Countries –– South Africa, South Africa, Egypt, Senegal and Morocco Egypt, Senegal and Morocco –– Receive Receive Nearly 80% of Seat CapacityNearly 80% of Seat Capacity
African Countries Served African Countries Served Direct from the US, & Share Direct from the US, & Share of USof US--Africa Seat Capacity, Africa Seat Capacity, May 2007May 2007
18
Historically, Non-U.S. Airlines Have Carried the Lion’s Share of Direct US-Africa PassengersHistorically, Non-U.S. Airlines Have Carried the Lion’s Share of Direct US-Africa Passengers
93% 92% 92% 89% 90% 96% 92% 94% 94% 90%
7% 8% 8% 11% 10% 4% 8% 6% 6% 10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
U.S. CarrierNon-U.S. Carrier
Share of USShare of US--Africa Passengers by Carrier NationalityAfrica Passengers by Carrier NationalityCY 1997 CY 1997 –– CY 2006CY 2006
Source: U.S. Department of Transportation T100
19
With the Exception of a Few Markets, Service Between the US and Africa Has Been SpottyWith the Exception of a Few Markets, Service Between the US and Africa Has Been Spotty
US-Africa Scheduled Direct Passenger Service, CY 1997 – CY 2006
Source: Official Airline Guide. * = certain flights have intermediate stops in Europe.
Carrier Route 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Afrinat Int'l New York-BanjulAir Afrique New York-Abidjan
New York-DakarDelta Atlanta-Dakar-Johannesburg
New York-AccraNew York-Cairo
Egyptair New York-CairoEthiopian Newark-Addis Ababa*
Washington-Addis Ababa*Ghana Airways Baltimore-Accra
Baltimore-BanjulBaltimore-FreetownBaltimore-MonroviaNew York-AccraNew York-BanjulNew York-Monrovia
Nigeria Airways New York-LagosNorth American Baltimore-Banjul
Baltimore-New York-AccraNew York-Lagos
Royal Air Maroc New York-CasablancaSouth African Airways Atlanta-Cape Town
Atlanta-JohannesburgAtlanta-SalMiami-Cape TownNew York-Dakar-JohannesburgNew York-JohannesburgNew York-Lagos-JohannesburgNew York-SalWashington-AccraWashington-DakarWashington-Johannesburg
TAA Houston-BanjulNew York-BanjulNew York-FreetownWashington-DakarWashington-Freetown
TACV New York-SalBoston-Praia*Boston-Sal
TWA New York-Cairo
20
However, in Recent Years, There Has Been Renewed Interest in the US-Africa Market Among African Airlines . . .However, in Recent Years, There Has Been Renewed Interest in the US-Africa Market Among African Airlines . . .
A Number of African Carriers Have Plansto Launch Service to the United States:
21
. . . as Well as US Carriers. . . as Well as US Carriers
North American Airlines Launched Services to West Africa in July 2005, After Ghana Airways’ Shutdown
– Currently Offers 3 Weekly Nonstops JFK-LOS, and 1 Weekly Direct Flight BWI-JFK-ACC
Continental Had Plans to Launch Daily Nonstop Service to Accra and Lagos from its Newark Hub in 2005
– Plans Were Axed Due to Inability to Gain Authorization for Service, in Wake of Virgin Nigeria Dispute
Delta Launched Service to Africa in 2006 and is Growing– In Late 2006, DL Launched Daily ATL-DKR-JNB Service,
and JFK-ACC 4 Times per Week– Plans to Launch Daily ATL-LOS Nonstop Service in December 2007
22
Capacity in the US-Africa Market is Well on its Way to Surpassing Pre-September 11 LevelsCapacity in the US-Africa Market is Well on its Way to Surpassing Pre-September 11 Levels
US-Africa Nonstop Capacity and Service, August 1997 – June 2007
10
11
9
14
1211
99
10
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Weekly Seats Each WayWeekly Seats Each WayThousandsThousands
3335
30
42
35 3430
32
38
48
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Weekly FrequenciesWeekly FrequenciesEach WayEach Way
Source: Official Airline Guide
23
US Carrier Code-Sharing to African Destinations Has Grown Enormously Over the Past 10 YearsUS Carrier Code-Sharing to African Destinations Has Grown Enormously Over the Past 10 Years
36
409
0
100
200
300
400
500
1997 2007
US Carrier CodeUS Carrier Code--Share Service to African Destinations, Share Service to African Destinations, Weekly Frequencies, Summer 2007 vs. Summer 1997Weekly Frequencies, Summer 2007 vs. Summer 1997
Source: Official Airline Guide, August 1997 and June 2007
24
123111
71
56
41
7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Delta
United
America
nNor
thwest
Contin
ental
US Airw
ays
26 25
13
9
1
28
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Delta
United
America
nNor
thwest
Contin
ental
US Airw
ays
Six of the US Major Carriers Now Sell Seats to 36 Destinations Throughout the Continent via Code-ShareSix of the US Major Carriers Now Sell Seats to 36 Destinations Throughout the Continent via Code-Share
US Carrier CodeUS Carrier Code--Share Service to AfricaShare Service to AfricaJune 2007June 2007
Source: Official Airline Guide, June 2007Source: Official Airline Guide, June 2007
Weekly FrequenciesWeekly FrequenciesNumber of AfricanNumber of African
Destinations ServedDestinations Served
25
Current US Carrier Code-Shares to Africa June, 2007Current US Carrier Code-Shares to Africa June, 2007
Source: Official Airline Guide, June 2007
US Major: Northwest US AirwaysCode-Share Partner: British
AirwaysBrussels Airlines Alitalia KLM Air France
Royal Air Maroc KLM Lufthansa
South African TAP Lufthansa
Abidjan X XAbuja XAccra X X XAddis Ababa X XAsmara XBamako XBorg El Arab XBrazzaville XCairo X X XCape Town X X XCasablanca X X XConakry XCotonou XDakar X X X X XDar-Es-Salaam X X XDouala X XEntebbe/Kampala X X XFreetown XIlha Do Sal XJohannesburg X X X X XKano X XKhartoum XKinshasa XLagos X X X X XLibreville XLome XLusaka XMaputo XNairobi X X X XNdjamena XNiamey XNouakchott XOuagadougou XRabat XTunis XYaounde X
American Continental Delta United
26
Since 1999, the U.S. Government Has Signed “Open Skies”Bilateral Air Service Agreements With 17 African NationsSince 1999, the U.S. Government Has Signed “Open Skies”Bilateral Air Service Agreements With 17 African Nations
African Countries WithAfrican Countries With““Open SkiesOpen Skies”” Bilateral Air ServiceBilateral Air Service
Agreements With the U.S.Agreements With the U.S.TanzaniaTanzania
NamibiaNamibia
BurkinaBurkinaFasoFaso
GhanaGhana
GambiaGambia
Cape VerdeCape VerdeSenegalSenegal
MaliMali
NigeriaNigeria
CameroonCameroon
GabonGabon RwandaRwanda
EthiopiaEthiopia
ChadChad
BeninBeninLiberiaLiberia
UgandaUganda
Source: U.S. Department of State.
27
AgendaAgenda
1. Market Characteristics, Drivers and Trends
2. Direct Service Characteristics and Trends
3. The View of US Carriers – and What African Airport Stakeholders Can do to Shape Their Perception
1. Market Characteristics, Drivers and Trends
2. Direct Service Characteristics and Trends
3. The View of US Carriers – and What African Airport Stakeholders Can do to Shape Their Perception
28
US Carriers’ View of the US-Africa MarketUS Carriers’ View of the US-Africa Market
Pros:Growing Very Rapidly, Certain Key Markets in ParticularHigh O&D Traffic Volumes and High Yields
– Oil-Driven Business– “VFR”
European Carriers Have Operated Successfully for Years Throughout the ContinentCompetition is Relatively Limited at Present
Cons:Uncertain Environment, Continued Perception of RiskMarket Information is SparseLimited Number of Markets Can Sustain Direct Service
29
Prerequisites for ServicePrerequisites for Service
Sufficient Traffic Must be Generated on “Local”, “Behind”, “Beyond”and/or “Bridge” Sectors to Sustain Widebody Service
– @ 150-200 Passengers per Day Each Way (PDEW) for Daily Widebody Service
– Connecting Potential at the African Gateway to “Beyond” Points Elsewhere in the Continent is Not Yet a Key Factor – But May Be in the Future
US Gateway Africa Gateway“Local”
US Gateway Africa Gateway“Behind”
US Gateway Africa Gateway“Beyond”
US Gateway Africa Gateway“Bridge”
30
Prerequisites for Service, Cont’d.Prerequisites for Service, Cont’d.
Sufficient Information Must be Available to Enable Accurate Market Sizing, by City-Pair and by Purpose of Travel
– Need to Understand “O&D” Traffic Flows and Yields, at the City-Pair Level if Possible
– “MIDT” Booking Data is Insufficient in the US-Africa Market
Aircraft Turns at African Airports Should be Quick – Maximum: 2 Hours– Target: 1 Hour 45 Minutes
31
What do US Carriers Evaluate Before Committing a Scarce Aircraft Resource to a Particular Service?What do US Carriers Evaluate Before Committing a Scarce Aircraft Resource to a Particular Service?
Market Characteristics & Potential Profitability– Airlines Estimate a Proposed Service’s Traffic and
Revenue Generation Capability
– Based on This Information, Airline Will Prepare a Full Pro-Forma P&L for the Proposed Service
– The Airline Will Evaluate and Rank These Results Against Other Proposed Markets
Operational Feasibility
Reliable Local Aircraft Service and Handling
Minimum of Red Tape
Safety & Security
32
African Governments and Airport Stakeholders areNow Actively Marketing Themselves to US CarriersAfrican Governments and Airport Stakeholders areNow Actively Marketing Themselves to US Carriers
It Appears That Financial Incentives Have Not Yet Beena Major Factor in Influencing Service Decisions
However, Incentives are a Common Component of Airports’Air Service Development Initiatives in the U.S. and Elsewhere. Examples:– Seat Guarantees
– Local Marketing Assistance
33
What Can Airports, Governments and Stakeholders in Africa do to Help Stimulate US Carrier Service?What Can Airports, Governments and Stakeholders in Africa do to Help Stimulate US Carrier Service?
Pro-Active Marketing is Likely to be a Necessity to Attract Service, Particularly for Smaller Markets
The Airlines Will be Looking for a Positive Business Caseto Justify Committing Aircraft to a Market
Airports, Governments and Stakeholders Can Help Airlinesin Their Decision Making by:– Helping to Provide the Information Carriers Need to Evaluate
and Support a Service Decision
– Aiding Carriers in Approvals Process; Minimizing Red Tape
– Helping to Ensure That the Carrier Will Face Few Operational Difficulties
34
THANK YOUTHANK YOU
mdiamond@[email protected]
www.sh-e.com
NEW YORKTel: +1.212.656.9200Fax: +1.212.471.6000E-mail: [email protected]
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