airbus global market forecast 2011 – 2030 the implications for airports alan pardoe head of...
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Airbus Global Market Forecast 2011 – 2030The implications for airportsAlan PardoeHead of Marketing Communications
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
The Airbus Global Market Forecast
20 year aircraft demand forecast
Aircraft >19 seats and payload > 10 tons
Traffic forecast modeling 161 distinct traffic flows
Detailed study of network evolution, including new routes, markets and deregulation hot spots
Model the impact of evolving airline models e.g. Low cost carriers
Fleet build-ups covering 869 airlines
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
The Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF)
Airport constraints not considered
Market research•Deregulation / liberalisation•Competition•Low cost penetration•Consumer / travel surveys
Market segmentation•Regional / low cost / charter•Start-up / Network•Integrators•Traffic flows•Domestic / International
Traffic Forecast•Economics & Econometrics•Tourism•Fuel price•Yields •Trade / Value of goods
Network development•Aircraft economics•Airline operation economics•Origin-destination demand•Demographics•Geopolitics•Network evolution
The GMF is a 20 year aircraft demand and passenger traffic forecast
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
2030
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Air travel remains a growth market
World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions)
20-year world annual traffic growth
4.8%ICAO
total trafficAirbus
GMF 2011
Air traffichas doubled
every 15 years
Air trafficwill doublein the next15 years
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
20-year demand for almost 27,800 new passenger and freight aircraft
Market value of $3.5 trillion
1,680 very large aircraft
6,920 twin-aisle aircraft
19,170 single-aisle aircraft
Source: Airbus GMF
~27,800 new aircraft
Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Stay in service
Recycled
Replaced
Growth
20-year passenger aircraft demand for 26,900 aircraft
A forecast need for 16,422 additional aircraft
Passenger aircraft 100 seats (excluding freighters)
Fleet size
Beginning 2011 20300
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1,0633,440
10,499
16,422
31,424
15,002
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
The Middle East accounts for 7% of global air traffic
2010 regional distribution of total RPK traffic per airline domicile
Middle East
7% Asia
24%
Europe
27%North America
27%
Latin America
5%
Africa
3%
Pacific region
4%
CIS
3%
Source: Airbus GMF
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
The Middle East was the fastest growing region in terms of inter-regional ASKs
The Middle East will account for 11% of global air traffic by 2030
ASK growth: 2010 vs. 2000 (Inter-regional passenger traffic)
Middle East
+229% PRC
+124%
Europe
+34%North America
+11%
Latin America
+29%
Africa
+87%Asia – Pacific
region
+34%
CIS
+146%
Source: OAG, comparing month of September
India Sub-continent
+141%
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
20-year demand for almost 1,920 new passenger and freight aircraft in the Middle East
Market value of $347 billion
2011 Airbus GMF: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)
330 very large aircraft
810 twin-aisle aircraft
780 single-aisle aircraft
~1,920 new aircraft
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Stay in service
Recycled
Replaced
Growth
These strong growth rates result in demand for 1,880 passenger aircraft over the next 20 years
A forecast need for 2,260 additional aircraft in the Middle East region
Airbus 2011 GMF: Passenger aircraft 100 seats (excluding freighters)
Fleet size
Begining 2011 20300
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
121
257
440
1,442
2,260
818
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201090
100
110
120
130
140
150
Since 2000, air travel has grown 45%, the growth in fuel demand relatively flat
Source: CERA. Jet fuel demand data: CERA (millions of barrels of jet fuel)
Evolution of RPKs and jet fuel demand (Base 100 in 2000)
Traffic growth
Jet fuel demand
Traffic+45%
Fuel+3%
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Fuel efficient Airbus aircraft Families
Fuel efficient Airbus products will sustain future growth, curb fuel demand
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
8300 nm
4500 nm
2500 nm
World population:
40%
World GDP:17%
World population: 87%World GDP: 64%
The Middle East : Prime opportunity as the “connector” of inter-regional traffic
Source: Global Insight, Airbus
A320 Family
A330 Family
A350 XWB
A380 Family
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Airbus aircraft families are space-efficient
< 80m wingspan
< 65m wingspan
< 36m wingspan
Airbus product make best use of ramp space
A320
A330A350 XWB
A380
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A320 Family
Over 105 million flight hours… 99.7% reliability
Data to end March 2012
8 380 firm orders
5 051 deliveries
3 329 order backlog
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Well-defined Airbus single-aisle product strategy
Building on proven values
2012
Efficiency
Today 2015
Sharklets
A320neo
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
A320neo is a minimum change aircraft
High commonality with A320 Family15% lower fuel burn and more range
Sharklets
New engines
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A320neo offers environmental benefits
• Annual fuel savings of 15% equate to:
1.4 m litres of fuel: the consumption of 1000 mid size cars
• 3,600 tonnes of CO2
the CO2 absorption of 240,000 trees
• NOx emissions 50% below CAEP/6
• 500nm more range
or 2 tonnes more payload
• Aircraft noise up to 15dB below Stage IV
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A320/A320neo compared
A320neo: new engine option
A320neo
81”
More efficient enginesCFM LEAP-1APW1100G
Sharklets
Efficient enginesCFM56-5BIAE V2500
Wing tip fences
68”
A320
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A320: more revenue-earning potential
Containers or bulk loading of bags and revenue cargo
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A330 Family
An A330 takes-off or lands every 28 seconds of every day
To end March 2012
1 188 firm orders
860 deliveries
328 order backlog
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A330 continuous development, increasing production
Increased productivity and higher revenues
Optional design weights * Vs 233t MTOW variant
A330-200 with 238t MTOWNow in service330nm extra range or up to 3.4t more payload
A330-300 with 235t MTOWNow in service135nm extra range or up to 1.4t more payload
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
A330 Family - super efficient twins
Over 750 aircraft sold since the launch of the 787~ four years of production backlog
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A330-200F: now open for business
Up to 70t payload, up to 4,000 nm range
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AUH
PEK
HKG
HHN
NDJ
NBO
TIP
MXPIST
PVG
SIN
DXB
KBL
BOM
NRT
BKK
ALA
KIX
KUL
JED
ADD
AMS
CGK
SYD
TPE
EBL HND
MNL
MEL
KCH
SHJ
JFK
A330-200F Versatility – In service fleet
Operating in major and emerging markets
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Airbus freighter offerings
The A330 P2F will complement the A330-200F as of 2016
2000 2010 2020
A330-200F~65 to 70 tonnes / Up to ~4,000nm
A300-600RP2F~47 tonnes / Up to ~2,500nm
A330 P2F~60 tonnes / Up to ~4,000nm
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Traffic 5.1% Annual Growth Rate Freight traffic to almost triple in the next 20 years
Fleet 3.2% Annual Growth Rate Freighter fleet to almost double over the period
Freighter GMF 2010 – 2030
New freighter market worth US$ 200bn in the next 20 years
Small Jet Freighters Mid-Size Freighters Large Freighters0
500
1,000
1,500
898
405
429
405
New freighters: 834 aircraft
Conversions: 1,897 aircraft
594
1,327
810
10t < payload < 30t 30t < payload < 80t payload > 80t
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Long-haul traffic will grow twice as fast as the network
Traffic will more than double – airport infrastructure will not: routes will get bigger
* Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm
Traffic
x 2.8
Network
x 1.4
Evolution of long-haul traffic and route network, 2010 = 100% [passengers and number of city-pairs]
2010 2030100%
200%
300%
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Airbus wide-body aircraft Families are complementary
Complete fleet solutions,matching network requirements today and tomorrow
Seats
Range
Route developerswith point-to-pointrange capabilityA330-200
A350-800
The new referencefor consolidating
trunk routes
A350-1000
Regional efficiencyon long-haul routes
A350-900
A330-300
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Efficiency by design
Airframe with advanced materials (53% composite)
Simple, efficient systems
State of the art aerodynamics (M0.85 cruise speed)
Latest generation engines
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A350-900 Material Breakdown (%)Including Landing Gear
Al/Al-Li
19%
Titanium14%
Steel6%
Misc.
8%
Composite
53%
An Intelligent Airframe by design
A350 XWB. New design, new materials
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
A350 XWB final assembly has started
MSN 5000 (static test) front and centre fuselage join-up
Toulouse – 5th April 2012
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Trent XWB Flight Test Bed
First flight of Trent XWB flight test bed on Feb 18 th, 2012
Flight testing well underway
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
A380
An A380 takes off or lands every 10 minutes
At end March 2012
253 firm orders
19 customers
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Incomparable popularity
“A380 flights are almost always full. In all of my 40 years in the business, I’ve never known an aircraft to be so popular. People are especially keen to fly in the A380”.
Tim ClarkEmirates CEO interviewed by Süddeutsche Zeitung – 16 th December 2011
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
In 20 years, nearly 90 cities will handle more than 10,000 long haul passengers per day
2030: 87 Aviation Megacities across the globe
Source: IATA PaxIS, OAG. Airbus GMF. * Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Qantas
Additional airline-announced routes for 2012 shown dotted
Los Angeles
Auckland
Johannesburg
Jeddah
Manchester
Emirates
Singapore Airlines
Air France
Lufthansa
The A380 network keeps growingFlying 55 routes to 29 destinations
Montreal
Paris
Melbourne
Singapore
Washington DC
New York
Korean Air
Bangkok
Seoul
San Francisco
MiamiShanghai
Tokyo
China Southern
Dubai
BeijingZurich
Rome
FrankfurtMunichToronto
Hong Kong
Sydney
Malaysia Airlines
GuangzhouHouston
London
Kuala Lumpur
Amsterdam
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
A380 airport compatibility
• Two aircraft, one gate.
Photos: Fraport website, Sydney Airport website
A380s make better use of valuable ramp space
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Airbus today
A full range of market leading products11,569 aircraft sold to 337 customers
A380 Family
A330 Family
A350 Family
A320 Family
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. This document and all information contained herein is the sole property of AIRBUS S.A.S. No intellectual property rights are granted by the delivery of this document or the disclosure of its content. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without the express written consent of AIRBUS S.A.S. This document and its content shall not be used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied. The statements made herein do not constitute an offer. They are based on the mentioned assumptions and are expressed in good faith. Where the supporting grounds for these statements are not shown, AIRBUS S.A.S. will be pleased to explain the basis thereof.AIRBUS, its logo, A300, A310, A318, A319, A320, A321, A330, A340, A350, A380, A400M are registered trademarks.