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  • 8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast

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    AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Page 1

    Global Market Forecast 2011 - 2030

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    Global Market Forecast2011 - 2030

    Delivering the Future

    September 2011

    Presented byJohn Leahy

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    GMF 2011 Highlights

    Page 3

    World fleet forecast 2010 2030 % change

    Market value of $3.5 trillion

    RPK (trillion) 4.8 12.3 157%

    Passenger aircraft fleet 15,000 31,420 109%

    New passenger aircraft deliveries - 26,920 -

    Dedicated freighters 1,600 3,450 +116%

    New freighter aircraft deliveries - 930 -

    Total new aircraft deliveries 27,850

    GMF 2011 key numbers and 20-year change

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    20-year demand for almost 27,900 new passenger andfreight aircraft

    20-year new deliveries of passenger and freight aircraft

    Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)

    1,780 very large aircraft

    Market value of $3.5 trillion

    6,910 twin-aisle aircraft

    19,170 single-aisle aircraft

    Page 4

    Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats)

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    World economic forecast accuracy

    World real GDP year-over-year quarterly evolution (%)

    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    Strong growthsince 2004

    Slowdown Deep crisis Recovery Sustained growth

    Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus

    2012

    Page 5

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    -4%

    -2%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

    Real & forecast GDP

    Traffic ASKs

    Source: IHS Global Insight (August 2011 data), OAG (ASKs data), Airbus

    GDP and passenger traffic development

    2007

    August 11Passengertraffic up

    6.2%

    World real GDP and passenger traffic (year-over-year)

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

    Page 6

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    -4%

    -2%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

    Source: IHS Global Insight (August 2011), Airbus

    A two-speed world

    History Forecast

    Real GDP growth (%)

    Emergingeconomies*

    Mature

    economies

    * 54 emerging economies

    Page 7

    -4%

    -2%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

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    Source: OAG, Airbus

    All regions are showing positive growth

    -12%

    -8%

    -4%

    0%

    4%

    8%

    12%

    16%

    J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N

    United States

    Western Europe

    Emerging Economies

    2007

    Trafficup

    2.1%5.2%

    Trafficup

    10.2%

    Passenger traffic (monthly ASKs year-over-year)

    2008 2009 2010 2011

    Emerging economies are leading the way

    Page 8

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    Delivery comparison over the last decade

    Largest aircraft manufacturer 8 out of last 10 years

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    Airbus Boeing

    Annual deliveries

    Page 9

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    Airbus order backlog

    4,233 aircraft in backlog, worth $570 billion

    North America479 (11%)

    LatinAmerica254 (6%)

    Middle East418 (10%)

    Asia/ Pacific1572 (37%)Lessors

    819 (19%)

    Corporate Jet,Private, Military

    45 (1%)

    Africa83 (2%)

    Europe360 (9%)

    Undisclosed 27 (1%)

    Page 10

    CIS176 (4%)

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    90

    100

    110

    120

    130

    140

    150

    2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    Since 2000, air travel has grown 45%, the growth infuel demand relatively flat.

    Evolution of RPKs and jet fuel demand(Base 100 in 2000)

    Traffic growth

    Jet fuel demand

    Traffic

    +45%

    Fuel

    +3%

    Jet fuel demand data: CERA (millions of barrels of jet fuel)

    Source: ICAO, CERA, Airbus

    Page 11

    S EIA IHS Gl b l I i h (A 2011) Ai b

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    Average annual oil prices have rebounded to 2008values

    Source: EIA, IHS Global Insight (August 2011), Airbus

    Page 12

    Average annual WTI oil price (US$ per bbl)

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

    History Forecast

    Oil price (Current US$)

    Average Annual

    PricePer Barrel

    >$120

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    A320neo generates significant fuel burn savings

    A320neonew environmental option

    15% fuel burn saving

    Equivalent to 1,000 cars driving 12,000 miles each

    3,600t less CO2 emissions

    Equivalent to CO2 absorbed by 240,000 maturetrees in a year

    Page 13

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    Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks

    Source: ICAO, Airbus * since 2000

    Gulf CrisisOil Crisis

    World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions)AsianCrisis

    WTCAttackOil Crisis SARS

    FinancialCrisis

    +45%

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    3.0

    3.5

    4.0

    4.5

    5.0

    1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

    Page 14

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    Main drivers for future growth

    Replacement of aircraft in service in mature markets

    Dynamic growth in emerging markets population and economics

    Increasing urbanisation driving wealth and traffic growth

    Strong continued growth in North American and European markets

    Expanding global middle class, especially in Asia

    Continued growth of LCCs

    Market liberalisation more to come

    Page 15

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    0.001

    0.01

    0.1

    1

    10

    0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000

    Trips* per capita - 2010

    2010 real GDP per capita

    World average

    Emerging economies drive strong travel growth

    China

    India

    Brazil

    Russia

    * Passengers originating from respective country Note: GDP in US$2005

    USA

    FranceGermany

    UKChina 2030

    India 2030

    Page 16

    India:4x 2030vs. 2010

    China:3x 2030vs. 2010

    Growth inPropensity to

    Travel

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    0.0

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    1970 1990 2010 2030

    Traffic in and between more mature markets willnearly double between 2010 and 2030

    Traffic within or including emerging economies

    Traffic within & between developed economies

    76% 63% 43%30%24%

    37%

    70%

    Market share on total traffic, emerging vs. mature traffic flows

    RPK (trillion)

    Page 17

    57%

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    0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

    Asia-Pacific

    Europe

    North America

    Middle East

    Latin America

    CIS

    Africa

    Asia-Pacific to lead in world traffic by 2030

    2010 traffic 2010-2030 traffic 28%

    27%

    27%

    7%

    5%

    3%

    3%

    20-yearworld annualtraffic growth

    4.8%

    5.7%

    4.0%

    3.3%

    7.4%

    6.1%

    4.9%

    5.6%

    World Traffic by airline domicile (RPK billions)% of 2010

    world RPK

    20-year

    growth

    Page 18

    33%

    23%

    20%

    11%

    6%

    4%

    3%

    % of 2030

    world RPK

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    Long-haul traffic will grow faster than short-haul

    Evolution of long-haul and short-haul traffic, 2010 set to 100% [passengers]

    * Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic

    Page 19

    0%

    100%

    200%

    300%

    Short-haul traffic Long-haul traffic

    2010 2010

    20302030

    x 2.4

    x 2.8

    Source: IATA PaxIS, OAG. Airbus

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    2010 cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers*

    39 cities in the world handle more than10,000 long haul passengers per day,

    Page 20

    * Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic

    ,

    Source: IATA PaxIS, OAG. Airbus

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    2030 cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers*

    and in 20 years, this will become nearly 90 cities

    Page 21

    * Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic

    ,

    * - Source: IATA Carrier Tracker November 2007 to June 2011

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    Four years of success four years of full flights25th October 2011 marks the fourth anniversary of the first commercial flight

    The Singapore Airlines A380 has proven exceptionally popular

    with customers, with strong loads on all routes it serves.System-wide, more than 5 million customers have flown on

    Singapore Airlines' A380s [...] on more than 13,000 flights.

    SIA News Release1st July 2011

    = 81%Average Load Factor

    76.5%

    IATA Industry average l.f.*

    77.9%

    SIA average l.f.*

    Source: IATA Carrier Tracker November 2007 to June 2011

    Page 22

    Source: ICAO, Airbus

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    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

    Air travel remains a growth market

    World annual traffic(RPKs - trillions)

    20-yearworld annualtraffic growth

    4.8%

    Page 23

    ICAOtotal traffic

    AirbusGMF 2011

    Air traffichas doubled

    every 15 years

    Air trafficwill double

    in the next15 years

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    New aircraft demand will average at ~1,400 per year

    0

    4,000

    8,000

    12,000

    16,000

    20,000

    24,000

    Single-aisle & Small jetfreighters Small-twin aisle &Regional freighters Intermediate twin-aisle &Long range freighters Large aircraft & Largefreighters

    GMF 2010

    GMF 2011

    69% 17% 8% 6%% units

    40% 27% 16% 17%% value

    17,870

    4,330

    1,910 1,740

    20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft

    4,790

    2,120 1,780

    19,170

    Page 24

    Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats) and jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)

    0

    4,000

    8,000

    12,000

    16,000

    20,000

    24,000

    Single-aisle & Small jetfreighters Small-twin aisle &Regional freighters Intermediate twin-aisle &Long range freighters Large aircraft & Largefreighters

    GMF 2010

    GMF 2011

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    Pending demand for aircraft replacement in NorthAmerica

    Asia

    Europe

    North America

    Latin America

    Africa

    Middle East

    WorldModern

    Out ofProduction

    79%

    70%

    75%

    72%

    56%

    67%

    59%

    2010 Fleet

    Today,~ 4500 out of

    productionaircraft to bereplaced bymore eco-

    efficient model

    Page 25

    Source: CASE, fleet in service as of end of year

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    Strong increase in average seat capacity of aircraft

    -4%

    0%

    4%

    8%

    12%

    16%

    20%

    2000 2010 2026**

    Evolution of average seat capacity of single-aisle and twin-aisle aircraft on order and future fleet in service*

    Twin-aisle aircraft:

    +8%

    Single-aisle aircraft:

    +10%

    2010 vs. 2000

    Backlog

    * Passenger aircraft 100 seats** Estimated 2026 backlog (2026 2030 new aircraft deliveries)

    Twin-aisle aircraft:

    +17%

    Single-aisle aircraft:

    +15%

    2026 vs. 2000

    Backlog

    Page 26

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    20-year demand for almost 27,900 new passenger andfreight aircraft

    20-year new deliveries of passenger and freight aircraft

    Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)

    1,780 very large aircraft

    Market value of $3.5 trillion

    6,910 twin-aisle aircraft

    19,170 single-aisle aircraft

    Page 27

    Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats)

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    A320neo market potential

    Open demand for 14,800 aircraft by 2030

    0

    5000

    10000

    15000

    20000

    25000

    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

    Single-aisle aircraft in-service

    Currently in-service

    Backlog

    Open Demand

    14,800aircraft

    4,400aircraft

    Page 28

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    Summary

    A market for more than 26,900 new passenger aircraft and over 900 newfreighter aircraft

    The A320neo Family will be addressing a market of about 19,000 single-aislepassenger aircraft, out of which 15,000 still to be sold.

    The twin-aisle passenger aircraft market will account for more than 6,900new aircraft deliveries.

    Nearly 1,800 very large aircraft to meet demand and alleviate congestion,whilst offering lower cost per seat.

    Strong A380 demand driven by the growth from 39 aviation mega-cities to 87in 20 years.

    Page 29

    September 2011

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    Global Market Forecast2011 - 2030

    Presented byChris Emerson

    Delivering the Future

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    The Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF)

    Page 31

    161 regional passenger flows Several models developed for each flow with the best model selected

    Econometric forecasts complemented by market research and judgement

    Detailed study of network evolution including new routes, markets andderegulation hot spots

    Model the impact of evolving airline models

    Fleet build-ups covering 869 passenger airlines

    Marketresearch

    Deregulation /liberalisation

    Competition

    Low costpenetration

    Consumer / travelsurveys

    Marketsegmentation

    Regional / low cost/ charterStart-up / Network

    IntegratorsTraffic flowsDomestic /International

    TrafficForecast

    Economics &Econometrics

    Tourism

    Fuel priceYieldsTrade / Value ofgoods

    Networkdevelopment

    Aircraft economicsAirline operationeconomics

    Origin-destinationdemand

    DemographicsGeopoliticsNetwork evolution

    o The Global Market Forecast (GMF) is a 20 year aircraft

    demand and passenger traffic forecast

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    Traffic is broken down from macro flows down to citypairs and routings

    GLOBAL FORECAST LOCAL ESTIMATES

    Europe

    Asia

    ~161distinct flows

    France

    Singapore

    ~10,000country pairs

    SIN

    TLSToulouse

    Singapore

    ~200,000Origin-Destination city pairs

    Page 32

    A unique process to match the global vision with the local perspective.

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    Five key industry drivers examined

    Economic andPopulationGrowth

    Trade EmergingMarkets

    AgingPopulations

    Ticket Price Comfort Origin andDestination

    Connectivity Growing TrafficFlows

    Global Cities Hubs New Routes Deregulation Route Evolution

    Fuel Range Fleet Mix/Capacity

    Business Models Yields

    Environment

    Seats, Speed andUtilization

    Frequency and Range and FleetMix

    Replacement Environment

    Economicsand

    Demographics

    Passengersand Traffic

    NetworkingAirline

    Operations

    Aircraft andAircraftDemand

    Page 33

    GrowingMiddle Class

    Urbanization

    Growing TrafficFlows

    Origin andDestination

    Route Evolution

    New Routes

    Load Factor

    Frequency Fleet Mix/Capacity

    Yields

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    Gulf CrisisOil Crisis

    Asian

    Crisis

    WTC

    AttackOil Crisis

    The Global Market Forecast is a long-term forecastwhich accounts for potential crises

    SARS

    GMF 1999

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    2009 projections have mapped closely with reality

    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Strong growth

    since 2004Slowdown Deep crisis Recovery Sustained growth

    2012

    World real GDP year-over-year quarterly evolution (%)

    -10%

    -8%

    -6%

    -4%

    -2%0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    Sep. 2011 forecast

    Actual until Sep. 2011

    Sep. 2009 forecast

    Actual until Sep. 2009-10%

    -8%

    -6%

    -4%

    -2%0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    Sep. 2011 forecast

    Actual until Sep. 2011

    Sep. 2009 forecast

    Actual until Sep. 2009-10%

    -8%

    -6%

    -4%

    -2%0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    Sep. 2011 forecast

    Actual until Sep. 2011

    Sep. 2009 forecast

    Actual until Sep. 2009-10%

    -8%

    -6%

    -4%

    -2%0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    Sep. 2011 forecast

    Actual until Sep. 2011

    Sep. 2009 forecast

    Actual until Sep. 2009-10%

    -8%

    -6%

    -4%

    -2%0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    Sep. 2011 forecast

    Actual until Sep. 2011

    Sep. 2009 forecast

    Actual until Sep. 2009

    The depth of this crisis has resulted in a slow but continual recovery

    Page 35

    Source: BEA, Airbus

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    Economic crisis andthe beginning of recovery

    -12%

    -10%

    -8%

    -6%

    -4%

    -2%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

    Increase in savings for households and businesseswhile budget surplus has declined heavily

    Page 36

    -12%

    -10%

    -8%

    -6%

    -4%

    -2%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

    Households Business Government

    United States net savings (% of GDP)

    -12%

    -10%

    -8%

    -6%

    -4%

    -2%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

    The increase in business and household savings demonstrate the foundations forrecovery

    Source: ICAO, IATA (2010 estimation), Airbus

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    Passenger load factor at record level

    Page 37

    50%

    55%

    60%

    65%

    70%

    75%

    80%

    1967

    1969

    1971

    1973

    1975

    1977

    1979

    1981

    1983

    1985

    1987

    1989

    1991

    1993

    1995

    1997

    1999

    2001

    2003

    2005

    2007

    200950%

    55%

    60%

    65%

    70%

    75%

    80%

    1967

    1969

    1971

    1973

    1975

    1977

    1979

    1981

    1983

    1985

    1987

    1989

    1991

    1993

    1995

    1997

    1999

    2001

    2003

    2005

    2007

    2009

    World passenger aircraft load factor (%)

    Environmental efficiency through airline productivity

    Source: OAG, Ascend, Airbus

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    The industry is again entering into a period of undercapacity

    Number of aircraft in under/excess capacity

    Under capacity(compared with pre-Sep2001 (2008) maximum

    productivity level)

    Excess capacity(compared with pre-Sep2001 (2008) maximum

    productivity level)

    2001 2005200420032002

    2008 2012201120102009

    -1500

    -1000

    -500

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N-1500

    -1000

    -500

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N-1500

    -1000

    -500

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N

    ?

    Page 38

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    Stabilization of yields over the last ten years

    Page 39

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    11

    12

    13

    14

    Sources:North America: ATAAsia Pacific: AAPA for data until 2009 / For 2010, Q1 2010, Q2 2010: annual & interim reports (weighted average yield by RPK of the 10 major airlines)Europe: AEA for data until 2009 / For 2010, Q1 2010, Q2 2010: annual & interim reports (weighted average yield by RPK of the 4 major airlines)

    US Cents/RPK

    Europe

    Asia/Pacific

    North America

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    11

    12

    13

    14

    Source: ICAO/IATA (June 2011), Airbus

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    Airlines expected to remain profitable in 2011

    5.5%

    -1.8%

    1.2%

    4.7%

    2.9%4.0%

    0.1%

    -2.2%

    2.0%1.1%

    2.9%

    -4.7%

    -1.8%

    10.9%

    2.3%

    North America

    Europe

    Asia-Pacific

    Airline industry EBIT margins (% of revenues)

    Page 40

    Fuel prices will continue to have an effect on the future profitability of airlines

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    Gl b l iddl l d i 4 9 billi

    Source: Kharas and Gertz, Airbus

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    Global middle class expected to rise to 4.9 billionpeople by 2030

    * Households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person (at PPP)

    Page 41

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    2010 2020 2030

    Sub Sahara Africa

    Middle East &North Africa

    Latin America

    North America

    Asia-Pacific

    Europe

    Millions of people

    1,845

    3,249

    4,884

    664 703 680

    525

    1,740

    3,228

    338

    333

    322

    181

    251

    313

    105

    165

    234107

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    2010 2020 2030

    Sub Sahara Africa

    Middle East &North Africa

    Latin America

    North America

    Asia-Pacific

    Europe664 703 680

    525

    1,740

    3,228

    338

    333

    322

    181

    251

    313

    105

    165

    234

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    2010 2020 2030

    Sub Sahara Africa

    Middle East &North Africa

    Latin America

    North America

    Asia-Pacific

    Europe664 703 680

    525

    1,740

    3,228

    338

    333

    322

    181

    251

    313

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    2010 2020 2030

    Sub Sahara Africa

    Middle East &North Africa

    Latin America

    North America

    Asia-Pacific

    Europe664 703 680

    525

    1,740

    3,228

    338

    333

    322

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    2010 2020 2030

    Sub Sahara Africa

    Middle East &North Africa

    Latin America

    North America

    Asia-Pacific

    Europe664 703 680

    525

    1,740

    3,228

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    2010 2020 2030

    Sub Sahara Africa

    Middle East &North Africa

    Latin America

    North America

    Asia-Pacific

    Europe664 703 6800

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    2010 2020 2030

    Sub Sahara Africa

    Middle East &North Africa

    Latin America

    North America

    Asia-Pacific

    Europe

    66% of the global middle class will be in Asia-Pacific in 2030

    U b i i i f h i d i f iSource: Global Insight, UN Population division

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    Page 42

    Urbanisation is one of the main drivers of economicgrowth

    0

    20,000

    40,000

    60,000

    80,000

    100,000

    120,000

    0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

    2010 real GDP per capita ($US)

    % Urban population

    Switzerland

    Luxembourg

    Norway

    Ireland

    Trinidad

    andTobago

    Aruba

    Anguilla

    Argentina

    BrazilRussiaIndiaChina

    USA

    UK

    France

    Germany

    Japan

    Bermuda

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    Long-haul traffic will grow twice as fast as the network

    Traffic

    x 2.8

    Network

    x 1.4

    Evolution of long-haul traffic and route network, 2010 set to 100% [passengers and number of city-pairs]

    * Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm

    Traffic will more than double airport infrastructure will not: routes will get bigger

    Page 43

    0%

    100%

    200%

    300%

    2010 2030

    L h l t ffi ill i hi hl t t d th

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    Long-haul traffic will remain highly concentrated on theAviation Megacities

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030

    History Forecast

    Aviation Megacity

    Aviation Megacity

    Aviation Megacity

    Secondary city

    Secondary city

    Secondary city

    RPK (billion)

    Long-haul traffic per route category*

    Page 44

    *- Long haul traffic: f light distance >2,000nmBased on 2010s 39 Aviation Megacities

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 20300

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 20300

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030

    A i ti iti th l b ill d i f t

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    Aviation megacities across the globe will drive futureVLA demand

    Page 45

    2PEK

    4LHR

    9PVG

    11NRT

    3HKG

    14FRA5

    JFK

    7SIN

    6CDG

    1

    DXB10LAX

    8

    DEL

    12BKK

    16

    SYD

    19SFO

    20ICN

    13BOM

    18GRU

    15

    SHA17

    CAN

    2030 top 20 airports in number of VLAs

    2030: 87 Aviation megacities

    D ti US till th l t fl i 2030 f ll d b

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    0 500 1000 1500Domestic United States

    Domestic PRC

    Intra Western Europe

    United States - Western Europe

    Domestic India

    Middle East - Western Europe

    Asia - Western Europe

    South America - Western Europe

    Asia - PRC

    Intra Asia

    PRC - Western Europe

    Central Europe - Western Europe

    Indian Sub - Middle East

    Domestic Brazil

    Domestic Asia

    North Africa - Western Europe

    Middle East - United States

    Asia - Middle East

    PRC - United States

    Japan - United States

    Domestic US still the largest flow in 2030, followed bydomestic China and Intra Western Europe

    20-year

    growth2.4%

    7.2%

    3.2%

    3.9%

    9.8%

    5.7%

    4.3%

    5.1%

    6.8%

    6.4%

    6.2%

    5.7%

    6.2%

    6.6%

    5.6%

    4.6%

    7.1%

    5.5%

    6.6%

    3.8%

    % of 2010

    World RPK17.8%

    6.0%

    10.3%

    6.4%

    1.0%

    1.9%

    2.4%

    2.1%

    1.5%

    1.6%

    1.5%

    1.6%

    1.4%

    1.3%

    1.5%

    1.5%

    0.9%

    1.2%

    1.0%

    1.7%

    0 500 1000 1500Domestic United States

    Domestic PRC

    Intra Western Europe

    United States - Western Europe

    Domestic India

    Middle East - Western Europe

    Asia - Western Europe

    South America - Western Europe

    Asia - PRC

    Intra Asia

    PRC - Western Europe

    Central Europe - Western Europe

    Indian Sub - Middle East

    Domestic Brazil

    Domestic Asia

    North Africa - Western Europe

    Middle East - United States

    Asia - Middle East

    PRC - United States

    Japan - United States

    2010 traffic 2011-2030 growth

    RPKs (billions)

    Page 46

    % of 2030

    World RPK11.1%

    9.3%

    7.5%

    5.4%

    2.6%

    2.3%

    2.2%

    2.2%

    2.2%

    2.1%

    2.0%

    1.9%

    1.9%

    1.8%

    1.7%

    1.4%

    1.4%

    1.4%

    1.4%

    1.4%

    Though domestic PRC will be 34% larger than domestic USA today

    20 i ft d d f 26 900 i ft

    Airbus Market Research & Forecasts

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    Stay in service

    Recycled

    Replaced

    Growth

    20-year passenger aircraft demand for 26,900 aircraftworth US$ 3.3 trillion

    Page 47

    Fleet size

    1,063

    3,440

    10,499

    16,422

    31,424

    0

    5,000

    10,000

    15,000

    20,000

    25,000

    30,000

    35,000

    Beginning 2011 2030

    15,002Newaircraft

    26,921

    Passenger aircraft 100 seats (excluding freighters)

    + 3.8 % per annum

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    Recap and Conclusions

    4.8%

    Traffic

    Growth

    2010-2030

    0 2000

    Intra Asia

    Asia - PRC

    S. America - W. Europe

    Asia - W. EuropeM. East - W. Europe

    Domestic India

    USA - W. Europe

    Intra Western Europe

    Domestic PRC

    Domestic USA

    Ten Largest Flows in 2030

    Single-Aisle

    Small Twin-Aisle

    IntermediateTwin-Aisle

    VLA

    =500Aircraft

    Passenger and Freight Aircraft Demand

    VLA

    IntermediateTwin-Aisle

    Single-Aisle

    Small Twin-Aisle

    40%

    27%

    16%

    17%by Value