airline economics growth frontiers ny 2017 · sources: 1iata august 2017, 2deutsche bank research...
TRANSCRIPT
Airline Economics Growth Frontiers NY 2017
October 19, 2017
Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Measures
Statements in this presentation that are not historical facts are hereby identified as “forward-looking statements,” including any statements about our expectations, beliefs, plans, predictions, forecasts, objectives, assumptions or future events or performance that are not historical facts and may be forward-looking. These statements are often, but not always, made through the use of words or phrases such as “anticipate,” “believes,” “can,” “could,” “may,” “predicts,” “potential,” “should,” “will,” “estimate,” “plans,” “projects,” “continuing,” “ongoing,” “expects,” “intends” and similar words or phrases. Accordingly, these statements are only predictions and involve estimates, known and unknown risks, assumptions and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in them. We wish to caution you that our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements as a result of several factors, including the following:
• our inability to make acquisitions of, or lease, aircraft on favorable terms;
• our inability to sell aircraft on favorable terms;
• our inability to obtain additional financing on favorable terms, if required, to complete the acquisition of sufficient aircraft as currently contemplated or to fund the operations and growth of our business;
• our inability to obtain refinancing prior to the time our debt matures;
• impaired financial condition and liquidity of our lessees;
• deterioration of economic conditions in the commercial aviation industry generally;
• increased maintenance, operating or other expenses or changes in the timing thereof;
• changes in the regulatory environment; and
• potential natural disasters and terrorist attacks and the amount of our insurance coverage, if any, relating thereto.
We also refer you to the documents the Company files from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), specifically the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016, which contains and identifies important factors that could cause the actual results for the Company on a consolidated basis to differ materially from expectations and any subsequent documents the Company files with the SEC. All forward-looking statements are necessarily only estimates of future results, and there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations, and, therefore, you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such statements. Further, any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date on which the statement is made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. If any such risks or uncertainties develop, our business, results of operation and financial condition could be adversely affected. You may obtain copies of the Company’s most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and the other documents it files with the SEC for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at www.sec.gov.
In addition to financial results prepared in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP, this presentation contains certain non-GAAP financial measures. Management believes that in addition to using GAAP results in evaluating our business, it can also be useful to measure results using certain non-GAAP financial measures. Investors and potential investors are encouraged to review the reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures with their most direct comparable GAAP financial results set forth in the Appendix section.
2
Macroeconomic backdrop remains positive
Indicators are largely positive and create a stable operating environment for airlines and lessors
IMF raised forecast for global growth in 2017 and 2018 earlier this month
Airline profits have slightly compressed but overall remain strong from a historical standpoint
3 Sources: 1IMF as of October 2017, 2Bloomberg as of 10/13/17, 32016 represents earnings growth before extraordinary items. Data for other years represents estimated earnings growth. 4IATA Fact Sheet June 2017
2016 2017F 2018F 2019F Overall Impact
Global GDP(1) 3.2% 3.6% 3.7% 3.8%
Emerging Market GDP(1) 4.3% 4.6% 4.9% 5.0%
10yr UST(2) 2.5% 2.4% 2.9% 3.2%
Global Inflation(1) 2.8% 3.1% 3.3% 3.3%
Oil(2) $57 $53 $56 $60
S&P 500 Earnings Growth(2,3) 6.7% 21.4% 10.9% 10.1%
Airline Op. Profit Margin(4) 8.8% 7.5% - -
Passenger Traffic Growth(4) 7.4% 7.4% - -
Sources: 1IATA August 2017, 2Deutsche Bank Research July 2017 (Includes aircraft less than 20 years old), 3IATA June 2017
Airline productivity measures
4
Growing, efficient and profitable utilization of fleets and capacity
Traffic: +7.9% YTD through Aug. 20171
Load factors: ~82% globally YTD Aug. 20171
Aircraft utilization at ten year high
Stable aircraft demand environment
Profits: $31 billion net profit forecasted for 20173
Parked fleet: ~3%2
4 Recessions
2 Financial crises
2 Gulf wars
1 Oil shock
1 Near pandemic (SARS)
9/11 Attack
Trend
2x
2x
5
Resilient, growing market expected to continue
RPKs (trillions)
Gulf Crisis
Asian Crisis 9/11 SARS
Financial Crisis
Note: RPKs = Revenue Passenger Kilometers Source: Boeing and ICAO scheduled traffic (September 2015) & IATA 2017
Airline passenger traffic is the ultimate underlying demand for our aircraft
• Industry experienced 7.9% RPK growth in the first eight months of 2017
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Deliveries have recently accounted for approximately 6% to 7% of the installed fleet
Historically, years with deliveries well exceeding these levels have been followed by cyclical declines
Despite production rate increases, deliveries for 2017 through 2020 are expected to represent the historical “comfort zone” of 6.5% to 7.5% of the in-service fleet each year, providing a continued dampening effect to production cyclicality
6
Aircraft production cyclicality diminishing A
nnua
l del
iver
ies
Deliveries as %
of fleet
Source: Boeing October 2017
7
Less Cash & Financing Required
Fleet Flexibility
Key Delivery Positions
Eliminate Residual Value Risk
Why airlines lease? Lessor fleet ownership
Source: Boeing December 31, 2016
1970 1980 1990 2000 2016
17 leased
100 leased
9,771 leased
1,343 leased
3,715 leased
3,722 aircraft 6,037 aircraft 9,160 aircraft 15,032 aircraft 25,122 aircraft
14.7%
24.7%
~39%
1.7% 0.5%
Increasing role of leasing
$790 billion of capital required for new aircraft delivering over the next 5 years
AerCap, 3.4%
Avolon, 3.3%
BBAM, 3.2%
GECAS, 3.0%
ALC, 3.0%
ICBC, 2.6%
SMBC, 2.5%
BOCA, 2.3%
JSA, 1.1%
BoCom, 1.1% Other Lessors,
19.6%
Airlines, 54.8%
GECAS, 4.3%
AerCap, 4.1%
BBAM, 2.9%
BOCA, 2.2%
SMBC, 2.1%
ALC, 2.1%
AWAS, 1.9%
ICBC, 1.8%
Avolon, 1.7%
CIT, 1.4% Other Lessors,
17.0%
Airlines, 58.7%
Taking a closer look at lessor market share
Top ten lessors continue to control ~60% of the leasing market for passenger aircraft below 8 y.o.
Increased competition in the sale and leaseback market has not materially impacted market share of the top ten lessors
Industry will need capital inflows to fund new aircraft deliveries over next five years
Source: 1Ascend, Includes passenger aircraft below 8 years of age manufactured by Boeing or Airbus 8
World fleet of Airbus and Boeing aircraft < 8 years of age by aircraft value1
2015 2017
Take
away
s
Consistency of Air Lease’s business
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Wei
ghte
d A
vera
ge P
ortfo
lio M
etric
s (y
ears
)
Ann
ualiz
ed L
ease
Yie
ld 1
Annualized Lease Yield Avg. Age Avg. Remaining Lease Term
ALC’s yields and portfolio metrics have remained consistent
Macro volatility has had minimal impact on ALC’s fleet metrics
Our rental revenues have averaged 11.6% of average net book value since 2011
1 Calculated as rental of flight equipment, excluding overhaul revenue and amortization of prepaid lease costs, divided by quarterly average net book value 9
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2Q17
$4.3$6.5
$8.6$10.6
$12.3 $13.3$7.3
$9.2$10.7
$12.4
$14.0 $14.9
Assets
Track record of strong and consistent performance
10
Revenues
Adj. Net Income Before Income Taxes2 Adj. Return on Equity Before Income Taxes3
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2Q17 LTM
11.2%
13.9%
16.6% 17.5%19.5% 18.7%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2Q16 2Q17
$253$339
$439$508
$623
$152 $167
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2Q16 2Q17
$656$859
$1,050$1,223
$1,419
$350 $381
1 Comprised of unrestricted cash plus unencumbered flight equipment (calculated as flight equipment subject to operating leases less accumulated depreciation less net book value of aircraft pledged as collateral) plus deposits on flight equipment purchases plus certain other assets. 2Adjusted Net Income Before Income Taxes, Adjusted Margin Before Income Taxes, and Adjusted Diluted Earnings Per Share Before Income Taxes are non-GAAP financial measures. See appendix for reconciliations to their most directly comparable GAAP measures. 3 Adjusted Return on Equity Before Income Taxes is calculated as the trailing twelve month Adjusted Net Income Before Income Taxes divided by average shareholders’ equity. Adjusted Net Income Before Income Taxes is a non-GAAP financial measure.
38.5
2.40
39.4
3.16
41.8
4.03
41.7
4.64
44.1
5.67
43.9
1.51
43.7
1.39
Adj. margin before income taxes (%):
Adj. diluted EPS
before income taxes ($):
Assets Assets
Encumbered Assets
Unencumbered assets1
Fleet Count: 155 193 213 240 240 237
ALC is experiencing increased demand for narrow body aircraft
• Driven by elevated passenger traffic trends and OEM delays, and continues despite recent airline bankruptcies
While OEM delays have been disruptive to the industry, they provide lessors unique opportunities to assist and guide customers
Uptick in demand for narrow body aircraft
(2) 737 MAX 8 with MIAT Mongolian
(8) 737 MAX 9 with Primera Air Nordic
(8) A321neo LR with Aer Lingus
(6) 737 MAX 8 with Blue Air
(1) 737-800 with Royal Air Maroc
(1) 737-800 with Travel Service
ALC
vie
w
Exa
mp
le o
f 201
7 P
lace
men
ts1
1The above are examples of announced 2017 ALC placements
(6) 737-800 with Blue Air
(1) A321neo with Novair
11
(5) 787-9 with China Southern
The “right” new generation wide body aircraft
(1) 787-9 with Air New Zealand
(1) A350-900 with Sichuan (2) A330-900neo with Air Mauritius
12
(2) 787-9 with Air Canada (1) 787-9 with LOT Polish
(2) 787-9 with Aeromexico
(4) A330-900neo with TAP Portugal
ALC’s small to medium wide body aircraft represent the core of future twin aisle growth
• Replacement demand • Airport slot congestion • High density short to medium haul routes
Unlike the largest wide bodies, these aircraft have a broad installed operator base and are fueling the growth in point-to-point long-haul travel
• Service routes over 3,000nm • Connect growing city pairs
ALC
vie
w
Exa
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le o
f 201
7 P
lace
men
ts1
1The above are examples of announced 2017 ALC placements
Airbus / C Series If it concludes…considerations for aircraft lessors
Relieves a degree of uncertainty as to overall C Series program
C Series aircraft – the fundamental issues remain the same:
• Price: Can Airbus/Bombardier reduce cost by adding production in Mobile, Alabama
or by other means?
• Global customer base: Needs strengthening - Airbus could influence positively
• Entry into service: Operator initial experience and feedback
• CS500 - a future project under Airbus?
• 90 -140 seat market segment: too many OEMs in relation to overall market size
Does Boeing rethink Embraer?
Boeing/U.S. Department of Commerce reaction and/or objections
13
Highest rated standalone
aircraft lessor
S&P: BBB / Fitch: BBB / Kroll: A-
Aircraft
236 owned1
51 managed1
373 on order ($28.5bn)
$15 billion Total assets
$24 billion Contracted and
committed fleet rentals
90% Percentage of orderbook
placed through 2019
18.7% Adjusted pre-tax return
on equity2
Air Lease at a glance
14 Note: Information as of June 30, 2017 unless noted otherwise, 1As of activity report released on October 9, 2017. 2TTM as of June 30, 2017; Adjusted Return on Equity Before Income Taxes is calculated as the trailing twelve month Adjusted Net Income Before Income Taxes divided by average shareholders’ equity. Adjusted Net Income Before Income Taxes is a non-GAAP financial measure.
Questions?
Appendix – Non-GAAP Reconciliations
16
(in thousands, except share and per share data) Q2 2017 Q2 2016 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
Reconciliation of net income to adjusted net incomebefore income taxes:
Net income 100,925$ 91,803$ 374,925$ 253,391$ 255,998$ 190,411$ 131,919$
Amortization of debt discounts and issuance costs 6,437 7,388 30,942 30,507 27,772 23,627 16,994
Stock-based compensation 5,304 4,501 16,941 17,022 16,048 21,614 31,688
Settlement - - - 72,000 - - -
Insurance recovery on settlement (950) (2,000) (5,250) (4,500) - - -
Provision for income taxes 54,944 50,468 205,313 139,562 138,778 103,031 72,054
Adjusted net income before income taxes 166,660$ 152,160$ 622,871$ 507,982$ 438,596$ 338,683$ 252,655$
Assumed conversion of convertible senior notes 1,431 1,455 5,780 5,806 5,811 5,783 5,627
Adjusted net income before income taxes plus assumed conversions 168,091$ 153,615$ 628,651$ 513,788$ 444,407$ 344,466$ 258,282$
Total revenues 380,957$ 350,139$ 1,419,055$ 1,222,840$ 1,050,493$ 858,675$ 655,746$
Weighted-average diluted shares outstanding 111,564,483 110,839,180 110,798,727 110,628,865 110,192,771 108,963,550 107,656,463
Adjusted margin before income taxes1 43.9% 43.7% 44.1% 41.7% 41.8% 39.4% 38.5%
Adjusted diluted earnings per share before income taxes 1.51$ 1.39$ 5.67$ 4.64$ 4.03$ 3.16$ 2.40$
Year Ended December 31,Three Months Ended
1 Adjusted margin before income taxes is adjusted net income before income taxes divided by total revenues, excluding insurance recoveries
Appendix – Non-GAAP Reconciliations
17
(in thousands, except share and per share data) Q2 2017 LTM 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
Reconciliation of net income to adjusted net incomebefore income taxes:
Net income 376,126$ 374,925$ 253,391$ 255,998$ 190,411$ 131,919$
Amortization of debt discounts and issuance costs 31,822 30,942 30,507 27,772 23,627 16,994
Stock-based compensation 18,278 16,941 17,022 16,048 21,614 31,688
Settlement - - 72,000 - - -
Insurance recovery on settlement (950) (5,250) (4,500) - - -
Provision for income taxes 207,597 205,313 139,562 138,778 103,031 72,054
Adjusted net income before income taxes 632,873$ 622,871$ 507,982$ 438,596$ 338,683$ 252,655$
Average shareholders' equity 3,376,867$ 3,201,050$ 2,895,987$ 2,647,748$ 2,428,028$ 2,254,452$
Adjusted return on equity before income taxes 18.7% 19.5% 17.5% 16.6% 13.9% 11.2%
Year Ended December 31,