airo & iclrd all island atlas seminar 1: demography
TRANSCRIPT
1
All-Island AtlasWorkshop 1
Justin Gleeson
Cavan, 30/01/14
Outline
• Population
• Age Cohortsg
• Dependency Rate
• Religion
• Ethnicity
Pl f Bi h• Place of Birth
2
Population
• 6.4 million people living on the island (2011)
• 72% in RoI (4.58m)
• 28% in NI (1.81m)
D f 27% f 1841 t t l f 8 17• Decrease of 27% from 1841 total of 8.17m
• -42% RoI
• +9% NI
RoI, 4,588,2525,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
NI, 1,810,863
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
1841 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1926 1951 1961 1971 1981* 1991* 2001/02 2011
Population
• 10 year Inter-censal change
• Increase NI: 1901-1911 onwards
• Increase RoI: 1961-1971 onwards
RoI: 17.1%
NI: 7.5%
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1926 1951 1961 1971 1981* 1991* 2001/02 2011
3
Population
• Population Change 2001/02 to 2011
• All-Island +14.25% from 5.6m to 6.4m (+798, 656)
• RoI +17.2% from 3.9m to 4.58m (+671,049)
– Natural Increase: 357, 426 (53%)
– Est. Net Migration: 313,623 (47%)
• NI +7.45% from 1.68m to 1.81m (+125,596)
– Natural Increase: 99,192 (79%)
– Est. Net Migration: 26,404 (21%)
Population
• Population Change 2001/02 to 2011
• All-Island +14.25% from 5.6m to 6.4m (+798, 656)
– RoI +17.2% from 3.9m to 4.58m
– NI +7.45% from 1.68m to 1.81m
11 0 11 2 11 8 12.4 13.5 14.7 15.0 15.317.1 17.8 17.8 18.7 18.8 19.1 19.2 19.9 20.5 20.7
22.3 23.1 23.324.6 25.5
28.3 29.4
37.1 37.439.5
20
30
40
50
ulat
ion
Cha
nge,
01
to 1
1
-6.3-3.1
4.86.4 7.5
9.8 11.0 11.2 11.8 12.4
-10
0
10Pop
4
Population
• Population Change 2001/02 to 2011
• All-Island +14.25% from 5.6m to 6.4m (+798, 656)
– RoI +17.2% from 3.9m to 4.58m
– NI +7.45% from 1.68m to 1.81m
10.5 10.6
13.2 13.614.3
15.316.1
16.8
21.2
15
20
25
Cha
nge,
01
to 1
1
1.1 1.32.7
3.4 3.4 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.9
6.4 6.6 7.0 7.1 7.4
9.2 9.3 9.410.5 10.6
0
5
10
Pop
ulat
ion
C
Population
• Population Change 2001/02 to 2011
• All-Island +14.25% from 5.6m to 6.4m (+798, 656)
– RoI +17.2% from 3.9m to 4.58m
– NI +7.45% from 1.68m to 1.81m
30
40
50
hang
e, 0
1 to
11
-10
0
10
20
Pop
ulat
ion
Ch
5
Population Change
• It’s mostly growth ….
• Commuter belts of all cities
• But not all growth….g
• 22% of EDs/Wards witnessed
population decline since 2001/02
• Mainly rural decline
• Lots of urban decline too
Population Change
6
Population Change
Population Change
7
Population – Age Cohorts
• Very different age profile between
two jurisdictions
• RoI has much higher rate in young
population, early working age and
lower old age
Population – Age Cohorts
• Very different age profile between
two jurisdictions
• RoI has much higher rate in young
population, early working age and
lower old age
• Lot of change since 2001
– RoI: Increase in young
population and working p p g
populations, Big decrease in 15-
25 year olds
– NI: Decrease in young
populations, increases towards
the elderly age groups
8
Population – Age Cohorts
• All-Island v EU27
• 1.27% of total population
• Much younger population, age
40+ sees a shift towards higher EU
rates
Population – Birth Rates
• Birth Rates 2011
• Highest birth rate in EU27
– RoI: 16.2 per 1,000 inhabitants
– NI: 14 per 1,000 inhabitants
10 6 10 7 10.8 10.9 11 11.1 11.3 11.311.6 11.8
12.6 12.8
14
16.2
12
14
16
18
Bir
th R
ate.
201
1
8.1
8.8 9 9.1 9.2 9.39.6 9.6 9.6 9.7
10 10 10.1 10.110.4 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.8
6
8
10Cru
de
9
Population – Age Cohorts (0-14)
• Population 0-14
• NI: 354k (19.6%)
• RoI: 979k (21.3%)
• All-Island: 1.33m (20.9%)
– High rates in new commuter zones
– Lower in urban centres
Population – Age Cohorts (0-14)
10
Population – Age Cohorts (15-24)
• Population 15-24
• NI: 252k (13.9%)
• RoI: 580k (12.6%)
• All-Island: 832k (13%)
– Higher rates in NI, west of the
jurisdiction
– Distinct hot-spots in cities related to 3rd
level education locations
Population – Age Cohorts (15-24)
11
Population – Age Cohorts (25-44)
• Population 25-44
• NI: 498k (27.5%)
R I 1 45 (31 6%)• RoI: 1.45m (31.6%)
• All-Island: 1.94m (30.4%)
– Largest population cohort
– Working population, highest rates both
commuter zones and close to main
employment zones (urban core in Dublinemployment zones (urban core in Dublin,
Belfast)
Population – Age Cohorts (25-44)
12
Population – Age Cohorts (45-64)
• Population 45-64
• NI: 442k (24.5%)
R I 104k (22 7%)• RoI: 104k (22.7%)
• All-Island: 1.48m (23.2%)
– Higher rates in NI
• Highest 7 Districts all in NI
– Higher rates are generally in rural areas and
ld b bolder suburban areas
Population – Age Cohorts (45-64)
13
Population – Age Cohorts (65 plus)
• Population 65plus
• NI: 263k (14.6%)
R I 535k (11 7%)• RoI: 535k (11.7%)
• All-Island: 799k (12.5%)
– Smallest population age cohort
– Very clear rural/peripheral patterns
– Highest 9 districts are in NI
Population – Age Cohorts (65 plus)
14
Population – Dependency Rates
• Dependency Ratio is the population 65+
(retired) and population 0-14 (children)
expressed as a % of 15-64 (economicallyexpressed as a % of 15 64 (economically
active)
• NI: 51.9%
• RoI: 49.3%
• All-Island: 50%
Population – Dependency Rates
• Young Dependency Ratio is the population
0-14 (children) expressed as a % of 15-64
(economically active)(economically active)
• NI: 29.7%
• RoI: 31.9%
• All-Island: 31.3%
15
Population – Dependency Rates
• Old Dependency Ratio is the population
65+ (retired) expressed as a % of 15-64
(economically active)(economically active)
• NI: 22.1%
• RoI: 17.4%
• All-Island: 18.7%
Religion
• Census Questions
• RoI
– What is your religion?What is your religion?
• NI:
– What religion do you belong to?
– What religion were you brought
up in?
16
Religion
• Census Questions
• RoI
– What is your religion?What is your religion?
• NI:
– What religion do you belong to?
– What religion were you brought
up in?
Religion
• All-Island
– Catholic
– Other Christian (Presbyterian, Church of Ireland, Methodist)
– Other Religion (Orthodox, Islam, Other, Not Stated)
– No Religion84.2
60
70
80
90
40.8 41.6
7.610.1
5.5 4.4 5.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
Catholic Other Christian Other Religion No Religion
NI
RoI
17
Religion - Catholics
• Catholics
• NI: 40.8%
• RoI: 84.2%
• All-Island: 71.9%
– Lowest rates in RoI in Dublin/East coast,
Galway City
– Carrickfergus, Ards, North Down all less
than 12%
O h D d N hi h t i NI– Omagh, Derry and Newry highest in NI >
65%
Religion - Catholics
18
Religion – Other Christian
• Other Christian
• NI: 41.6%
• RoI: 5.5%
• All-Island: 15.7%
– Donegal, Wicklow, Monaghan and Cavan
with highest rates in RoI (8-9%)
• High rates also along east coast and
south-west
Religion – Other Christian
19
Religion – Other Religions
• Other Religions
• NI: 7.4%
• RoI: 4.4%
• All-Island: 5.3%
– Highest rates in Belfast, Newry and
Mourne, Derry and Dublin City
Religion – Other Religions
20
Religion – No Religion
• No Religion
• NI: (10.1%)
• RoI: (5.9%)RoI: (5.9%)
• All-Island: (7.1%)
– Highest rates in North Down, Carrickfergus
and Ards
– Border counties/districts with lower rates
Religion – No Religion
21
Ethnicity
• Ethnicity
• Re-classified by CSO
• White, Irish Traveller, Black, Asian, Other/Mixed
Ethnicity
• Ethnicity
• Re-classified by CSO
• White, Irish Traveller, Black, Asian, Other/Mixed
98.293.6
60
70
80
90
100
0.1 0.2 1.1 0.50.7 1.4 1.9 0.90
10
20
30
40
50
White Irish Traveller Black Asian Other
NI
RoI
22
Ethnicity - White
• White
• NI: 98.2%
• RoI: 93 6%• RoI: 93.6%
• All-Island: 94.9%
Ethnicity – Irish Traveller
• Irish Traveller
• NI: 0.1% (1,301)
• RoI: 0.7% (29,495)
• All-Island: 0.48% (30,796)
– Travellers living in only 17% of Small
Areas across the island
– High rates in Tuam, Rathkeale, Athlone
urban areas and Dublin periphery
• Galway County, Longford, Galway City
with highest rates
23
Ethnicity - Black
• Black
• NI: 0.2% (3,616)
• RoI: 1 4% (65 078)RoI: 1.4% (65,078)
• All-Island: 1.1%
– Highest rates are in Fingal, Galway City,
South Dublin and Louth
– Very clear spatial distribution in Dublin
City – periphery locationsy p p y
– Dungannon highest in NI (27/60)
Ethnicity - Black
24
Ethnicity - Asian
• Asian
• NI: 1.1% (19,130)
• RoI: 1.9% (84,690)RoI: 1.9% (84,690)
• All-Island: 1.6% (103,820)
– Highest in all cities
• Dublin, Galway, Belfast all > 2%
• Central locations in cities
Ethnicity - Asian
25
Place of Birth
• Place of Birth codes
• NI: RoI, UK Countries, 7 EU countries, 7 African, 13 Asian, Other
• RoI: Ireland UK Poland Lithuania Other EU27 Rest of WorldRoI: Ireland, UK, Poland, Lithuania, Other EU27, Rest of World
• All-Island: RoI, NI, Rest of UK, Pol, Lithuania, Rest of EU27, Rest
of World
Place of Birth
• Place of Birth codes
• All-Island: RoI, NI, Rest of UK, Pol, Lithuania, Rest of EU27, Rest of World
88.8
83.1
60
70
80
90
100
2.14.6
1.1 0.4 1 21.35.1
2.5 0.8 2.64.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
RoI NI Rest UK Pol Lit Rest EU27 ROW
NI
RoI
26
Place of Birth - RoI
• PoB - RoI
• NI: 2.1% (37,872)
• RoI: 83 1% (3 758m)• RoI: 83.1% (3.758m)
• All-Island: 59.9% (3.796m)
– Highest rates living in NI are in border
areas: Fermanagh, Strabane, Newry, Derry
• 4 to 7%
Place of Birth - NI
• PoB - NI
• NI: 88.8% (1.608m)
• RoI: 1 3% (58 470)• RoI: 1.3% (58,470)
• All-Island: 26.3% (1.667m)
– Border counties in RoI with highest rates
• Donegal , Monaghan and Louth the
highest with rates 6-8%
27
Place of Birth – Rest of UK
• PoB – Rest of UK
• NI: 4.6% (83,517)
• RoI: 5 1% (230 157)• RoI: 5.1% (230,157)
• All-Island: 5% (313,674)
– Highest rates in Mayo, Leitrim, Donegal,
North Down and Roscommon >8%
– Very clear spatial pattern in rural /
peripheral / holiday destinationsp p y
• South-East, East Clare, Upper Shannon
Place of Birth – Outside Ireland/UK
• PoB – Outside Ireland/UK
• NI: 4.5% (80,621)
• RoI: 10 6% (478 143)• RoI: 10.6% (478,143)
• All-Island: 8.8% (558,764)
– Highest rates in main cities and urban areas
• Galway City, Fingal and Dublin City >16%
• Highest in NI is Dungannon 10.3%
• Belfast only 6.5%
28
Place of Birth – Outside Ireland/UK
Place of Birth - Poland
• Poland
• Major influx in last decade, now highest
non-national group in RoInon national group in RoI
• NI: 1.1% (19,658)
• RoI: 2.5% (115,193)
• All-Island: 2.1% (134,851)
– Mostly concentrated in urban centres across
the island
– District spatial pattern in main cities