airport hubbing
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
1
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AIRPORT
AS A HUB
Dr Nigel Dennis Senior Research Fellow
Department of Planning and Transport University of Westminster
2
3
LONDON
AMSTERDAM
FRANKFURT PARIS
4
A
C
E
B
D
F
5
A
C
E
B
D
F X
A
C
E
B
D
F
6
GROWTH IN THE POWER OF A HUB
n spokes
n(n-1)/2 conn markets + n local
markets
2 1 + 2 = 3
6 15 + 6 = 21
10 45 + 10 = 55
50 1225 + 50 = 1275
100 4950 + 100 = 5050
7
CHARACTERISTICS OF AN EFFECTIVE HUB
• Central Geographical Location
• Efficient Processing (Low MCT)
• Local Traffic Base
• Co-ordinated Scheduling and Ample Runway Capacity
8
GEOGRAPHY AND HUB LOCATION Increase in passenger km required to interlink 36 airport network relative to optimal location
Hub Brussels 0% Paris + 2% Cologne + 3% Dusseldorf + 4% Frankfurt + 6% Amsterdam + 7% Stuttgart + 11% London + 12% Zurich + 14% .. .. .. .. Athens +196%
9
MINIMUM CONNECT TIMES FOR A SELECTION OF AIRPORTS
Different MCTs apply for other airlines/terminals at LGW, LHR, CDG, ATL There are also specific exceptions to the general MCTs shown
Airport MCT (min) Between MCT
(min) Between Amsterdam 40 short-haul short-haul 50 otherwise Birmingham UK 45 Brussels 40 short-haul short-haul 50 otherwise Frankfurt 45 London Gatwick (N Term) 45 London Heathrow (BA) 60 T5 T5 90 T3 T5 Madrid (IB) 45 T4 T4 55-90 otherwise
Munich (LH) 30 Paris CDG (AF) 45 Vienna 25 OS OS 30 otherwise Atlanta (DL) 35 domestic domestic 50-80 otherwise Sydney 30 domestic domestic 60-75 international all Delhi 90 domestic domestic 180 international domestic
10
11
12
IMPORTANCE OF THE HUB
Source: ACI/CAA/ADV/IATA various years
Transfers as % of total traffic
Frankfurt 54
Amsterdam 44
Paris CDG 38
London Heathrow 36
Cincinnati 75
Charlotte 74
Atlanta 63
Chicago O'Hare 53
13
14
MCT
DEPARTURES
DEPARTURES
ARRIVALS
ARRIVALS
time
time
THE WAVE CONCEPT
15
16
17
18
WAVE SIZE AND LENGTH
For comparison BA at LHR has about 18 departures in every hour
Hub Departure wave
No of aircraft Time
FRA-LH 0810-0955 68 105 min
AMS-KL 0930-1045 63 75 min
CDG-AF 0935-1030 52 55 min
19
London Heathrow arrivalsThur 13 Nov 1997 (scheduled services)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Half hour period commencing
Num
ber o
f arr
ival
s
Other airlinesBA + partners
20
London Heathrow departuresThur 13 Nov 1997 (scheduled services)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Half hour period commencing
Num
ber o
f dep
artu
res
Other airlinesBA + partners
21
Amsterdam arrivalsThur 13 Nov 1997 (scheduled services)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Half hour period commencing
Num
ber o
f arr
ival
s
Other airlinesKLM + partners
22
Amsterdam departuresThur 13 Nov 1997 (scheduled services)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Half hour period commencing
Num
ber o
f dep
artu
res
Other airlinesKLM + partners
23
RUNWAY FACILITIES AT MAJOR EUROPEAN AIRPORTS
* indicates airports with two parallel runways Source: ACI, CAA, Airports
Airport No of principal ATMs ATMs runways 2006 2011
Paris CDG 4* 542 000 514 000 Frankfurt 4* 489 000 487 000 London Heathrow 2* 477 000 481 000 Amsterdam 5* 440 000 437 000 Madrid 3* 435 000 429 000 Munich 3* 411 000 410 000 Barcelona 3* 328 000 303 000 Rome Fiumicino 3* 316 000 328 000 London Gatwick 1 263 000 251 000 Zurich 3 261 000 239 000 Copenhagen 3* 258 000 247 000 Brussels 3 255 000 214 000 Stockholm Arlanda 3* 227 000 204 000
24
RUNWAY CAPACITY SITUATION Major European airports - 2006
Source: Capacities from Eurocontrol Medium-Term Forecast 2005-2011 Aircraft Movements from ACI and individual airports + airport with significant new runway capacity available by 2010
Below 70% of capacity
Copenhagen (43) Palma (48) Brussels (54) Vienna (55) Rome Fiumicino (57) Stockholm Arlanda (61) Dublin (66) sufficient for 5-10 years
70-90% of capacity Amsterdam (73) Manchester (73) Munich (75) Zurich (75) Barcelona (78) Istanbul (78) Madrid (87) + Paris CDG (87) full within 5 years
Over 90% of capacity London Stansted (90) Dusseldorf (92) Frankfurt (92) + Paris Orly (93) London Gatwick (99) London Heathrow (100) full now
25
HOURGLASS HUB
HINTERLAND HUB
26
DIRECTIONALISING WITHIN A WAVE Excerpt from Brussels Airlines (SN) morning schedule
MCT = 40 minutes
From BRU arr
BRU dep To
MRS 0840 0920 OSL
MXP 0840 0930 MAN
ZRH 0840 BHX
OSL 0900 0950 MRS
BHX 0900 MXP MAN 0910 1000 ZRH
0950
0930
27
COSTS RELATING TO A WAVE SYSTEM Example: Air France - Paris CDG
• Upgrade ground handling in T2 $10 million (AF) $12 million (ADP)
• Add new module to T2 (Hall F) $275 million (ADP)
Source: Jane's Airport Review
28
BACK-TO-BACK WAVES American Airlines pattern at Dallas/Fort Worth 2001
arr dep 0610
1 0710 0800 2 0830 0920 3 1000 1050 4 1150 1240 5 1310 1400 6 1500 1550 7 1620 1710 8 1750 1840 9 1940 2030
10 2120 2210 2230
29
IMPACT OF CONNECTING PASSENGERS ON AIRPORT REVENUES
• Commercial activities - two passenger movements, one passenger - no car parking or car hire - no meeters and greeters - limited need for retail facilities/catering
(wrong currency problems) - scope for special promotions
• Aeronautical charges - downward pressure due to competition - passenger charge may be reduced
30
TRAFFIC GROWTH AT US AIRPORTS SINCE DEREGULATION Passengers (millions)
1977 1997 2007 % change Av annual 1977-2007 growth (%)
Salt Lake City 3.6 21.1 22.0 +511 6.2 Minneapolis 7.8 30.2 35.2 +351 5.2 St Louis 6.7 27.7 15.4 +130 2.8 Kansas City 4.8 11.0 12.0 +150 3.1 New Orleans 5.4 8.8 7.5* + 38 1.1 Cleveland 6.4 12.2 11.4 + 78 1.9
Source: ACI North America * 9.7 in 2004 before Hurricane Katrina
31
HUBS V POINT TO POINT SERVICES
Hub airlines more efficient - routes from major hub airports - thin markets <200 pax per day - long-haul markets Point-to-point airlines more efficient - dense routes not involving major hub airports - holiday routes
32
ALTERNATIVE AIRLINE NETWORK STRATEGIES LOW-COST DOWN-SIZE NETWORK
CARRIER
e.g. Ryanair e.g. Iberia e.g. KLM easyJet Alitalia Air France Norwegian SAS Lufthansa
Low unit costs Concentrate on Efficient hub can support high yield Wide coverage low yields local traffic (short/long-haul)
Issue of Only likely to Yields will 'Flow traffic' as work at capacity improve as network grows constrained airports rival hubs close
33
THE 'CONTINUOUS' HUB
DEPARTURES
ARRIVALS
time
‘A new paradigm’?
34
THE SHORTCOMINGS OF A 'CONTINUOUS' HUB based on 450 departures per day, 30 min MCT
Number of marketable connections is cut by 50%-75%
Arrival MCT Departure
0830-0900 30 min 0930-1000
60 flights 60 flights
(East) (West)
0830 30 min 0900-1000
1 flight 30 flights (of which 15 West)
(East) 1000-1100
30 flights (of which 15 West)
35
WHEN MIGHT A 'CONTINUOUS' HUB MAKE SENSE?
• For low-cost airlines
• At hubs which generate a large amount of O+D traffic
• At hubs where most routes are operated at least 8x per day
In Dec 2013, US Airways management start to reinstate wave pattern at American Airlines’ hubs following merger
36
SOUTHWEST AIRLINES Example of linkages via Baltimore
Providence dep
Baltimore arr
Baltimore dep Destination
0700 0820 0855 Phoenix 0900 Norfolk 0910 Columbus 0920 Buffalo 0920 Nashville 0925 Raleigh 0950 Jacksonville 1010 Albuquerque 1020 West Palm Beach
37
BANDING OF FLIGHTS BY DIRECTION with 90 minute MCT
arrive depart
North 0900-0930 1000-1030 North
East 0930-1000 1030-1100 East
South 1000-1030 1100-1130 South
West 1030-1100 1130-1200 West
North 1100-1130 1200-1230 North
etc
38
THE GROWING IMPORTANCE OF TRANSFER TRAFFIC • At London Heathrow the proportion of passengers
that are making a transfer connection has risen: 22% in 1987 26% in 1991 33% in 1996
31% in 2001 35% in 2007 36% in 2010 (CAA Surveys)
• 69% of KLM's passengers at Amsterdam are making a transfer connection there (KLM)
• 47% of BA’s passengers at London Heathrow are making a transfer connection there (CAA data)
• On-line or code-share connections generate 4 times as many passengers as those involving a change of airline (BA/CAA data)
39
TREND TOWARDS ON-LINE CONNECTIONS • In domestic US in 1977
52% of transfer passengers were on-line now it is over 90%
• At London Heathrow in 1984 27% of transfer passengers were BA-BA in 1996 this had grown to 55% by 2012 it was 73% within BA and oneworld
• At Amsterdam it is estimated that over 80% of transfer passengers are connecting between KLM and partners
Source: DOT/CAA/TSG/DIIO FMg Database used by InterVISTAS for LGW
40
SCHEDULED SERVICES FROM HUMBERSIDE 2 Routes are operated
• ABERDEEN 0700, 1015, 1415, 1735 Eastern Airways J41 (29 seats)
• AMSTERDAM 0600, 1000, 1720 KLM city hopper F70 (70 seats) CONNECTS AT SCHIPHOL TO 160 KLM WORLDWIDE DESTINATIONS PLUS 37 MORE SERVED BY OTHER CARRIERS
KLM figure includes partner and associate carriers There is also a weekly seasonal service from Humberside to Jersey by flybe Source: OAG March 2013
41
PROPORTION OF PASSENGERS CONNECTING AT EUROPEAN HUBS
Route Airline % connections at
hub Cardiff-Amsterdam KLM 68%
Manchester-Amsterdam KLM 58%
Birmingham-Frankfurt Lufthansa 53%
Manchester-Paris Air France 51%
Manchester-Paris flybe 6%
Liverpool-Amsterdam easyJet 1%
Cardiff-Paris bmibaby 1% Bristol-Amsterdam easyJet 0
Source: CAA Survey N.B. easyJet is 10-20% on UK regions-London airports
42
AIR BERLIN HUB AT PALMA
Origin Palma Palma Destination arr dep
Frankfurt 0910 1015 Porto Leipzig/Halle 0910 1020 Lisbon Salzburg 0910 1020 Jerez Dusseldorf 0915 1025 Bilbao Dortmund 0920 1025 Malaga Vienna 0920 1030 Barcelona Munich 0925 1030 Madrid Amsterdam 0930 1035 Alicante Berlin Tegel 0935 1040 Seville Hamburg 0935 1040 Valencia Source: OAG
43
DOMINATION OF HUB TO SPOKE ROUTES Daily Frequencies Summer 1989 and Summer 2012
• AMSTERDAM-GOTHENBURG 1989 1xKL, 1xSK, 1xAY 2012 5xKL
• LONDON-MARSEILLE 1989 1xBA, 1xAF 2012 3xBA, 2xU2, 1xFR
• FRANKFURT-VENICE 1989 1xLH, 1xAZ 2012 5xLH, 1xFR
44
HUB DOMINATION IN THE US
Hub Airport Hub Airline % of flights operated by Hub Airline (May 2005)
Atlanta Delta 76 Chicago O’Hare United 48
American 39 Dallas Fort Worth American 83 Minneapolis Northwest 80 Houston G Bush Continental 86 Detroit Northwest 80 Charlotte US Airways 84 Philadelphia US Airways 70 Salt Lake City Delta 79 Cincinnati Delta 87
Source: OAG/Airline Business
45
UNITED ROUTES FROM CLEVELAND October 2013
Cleveland depart
Aircraft type
Total daily seats
Memphis depart
Aircraft type
Total daily seats
To San Francisco 334 To Indianapolis 140 0826 739 0840 E70 1739 739 1757 E70
To Milwaukee 94 To Dubois, PA 38 0840 ER4 0835 BE1 1735 ER4 1750 BE1
46
STABLING AT THE HUB
STABLING AWAY FROM THE HUB
0930 1430 1930
0700 1200 1700 2200
47
HUB REPEAT CYCLES AND AIRCRAFT UTILISATION
AMSTERDAM 0930 1330 AMSTERDAM
BRUSSELS 1015/1245
MILAN 1110/1150
ROME 1150/?
48
DEVELOPMENT AND DEMISE OF HUB ACTIVITY AT DAYTON
Figures are for Monday-Friday services
* Non stop + USAir from 1989
April 1982
March 1983
Nov 1985
Nov 1989
Jan 1993
DEPARTURES 78 91 152 187 94 Piedmont+ -- 28 89 142 45 Other 78 70 63 45 49
DESTINATIONS* 19 29 41 43 21 Piedmont only+ -- 13 25 34 10 Other only 19 15 11 7 8 Piedmont+ & Other -- 1 5 2 3
49
ABANDONMENT OF SECONDARY HUBS SWISSAIR/CROSSAIR/SWISS ROUTES FROM GENEVA
1997 (24 routes) Alicante Amsterdam Athens Barcelona Basel/Mulhouse Berlin Tempelhof Bilbao Brussels Dusseldorf Lisbon London City London Heathrow
1997 continued Lugano Marseille Moscow Nice Paris CDG Prague Rome Fiumicino Seville Stuttgart Toulouse Vienna Zurich
2010 (9 routes) Athens Barcelona Budapest Lisbon London City London Heathrow Moscow Prague Zurich
Short-haul routes with at least one weekday frequency; Excludes code-shares operated by other carriers
50
LOSS OF LONG-HAUL SERVICE AT BRUSSELS 2013 v 2005 v 2001
Source: Compiled from OAG data; includes all points outside IATA Europe
Feb Feb Feb 2001 2005 2013
WEEKLY FREQUENCIES 174 80 161
SN (including code-shares) 107 35 108 Others 67 45 53 DESTINATIONS 47 26 42 SN only 22 12 26
Other only 17 10 14 SN and Other 8 4 2