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7/24/2019 Airport Infr_Indian Airports Infrastructure Sector October 2015 Next Phase of Development Requires Regulatory Enablement(R)

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Fver

Indian Airports Infrastructure Sector October 2015

Next Phase of Development Requires Regulatory EnablementICRA RESEARCH SERVICES

Contacts:

Sabyasachi Majumdar

+91 124 4545 304

[email protected]

Harsh Jagnani

+91 124 4545 394

[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


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Indian Airports Infrastructure

ICRA Limited P a g e | 2

Executive Summary

This note discusses the development of airports infrastructure in India during the last decade, focusing especially on the privatisation

initiatives taken so far. For the privatised airports, it takes a close look at such aspects as project cost, means of funding and promoter

background, besides analysing the regulatory framework, especially the tariff decisions taken so far and the areas of uncertainty. The tariff

determination process at the Airports Authority of India (AAI)-operated airports is also discussed in detail. The note makes international

comparisons while discussing airport infrastructure development, highlighting regulatory developments, contribution of non-aeronautical

revenues, and other related aspects. A consolidated financial analysis of the sector is presented, highlighting the trend in revenues,

profitability and debt coverage indicators. In addition, the note makes a detailed analysis of air traffic movement in the country across the

three categories of passenger, aircraft and cargo. It also discusses the development of traffic at non-metro cities, which are seen as the new

growth centres. The key points of the note are captured in the following paragraphs.

Robust traffic growth: The Indian aviation industry took off to a higher growth plane following liberalisation of the airlines industry in the

late 1990s. In the decade following liberalisation, the growth was propelled by the emergence of low-cost carriers, competition-induced

decline in travel costs, and sustained economic growth. Aviation traffic reported robust growth over the first decade of this century, but has

been volatile subsequently. In FY2015, the country witnessed passenger movement of 190 million (mn) with the 15-year compounded annual

growth rate (CAGR) at 11.4%, aircraft movement of 1.6 mn (8.8%) and cargo movement of 2.5 mn tonnes (8.1%), making it a major aviation

centre globally. Going forward, traffic growth is expected to be lower than the levels seen in the past decade because of the base effect, but

is still expected to remain high. The country still has fewer air passengers in comparison with global benchmarks and the number is expected

to pick up with the growth in GDP and improvement in purchasing power. Moreover, India i s expected to see the emergence of more centres

of growth beyond the metropolitan and Tier-I cities, which would make these important airport destinations.

Sizeable capex undertaken by private players: To support the growing aviation industry, renewed focus came to be placed on the aviation

infrastructure sector during the last decade. In this period, Indias aviation infrastructure has witnessed significant devel opments: capital

expenditure (capex) initiatives by the Airports Authority of India (AAI), formation of an independent regulator, and identification of new

means of financing airport infrastructure development. The landmark development for the sector over the last few years has been the

privatisation of four large airports: Bengaluru, Delhi, Hyderabad, and Mumbai. The total project cost of these four airports stands at an

estimated Rs. 32,000 crore1, which is almost three times the capex incurred by AAI over the 11 thFive-Year Plan period (2008-2012).

1Of this,Rs. 7,000 crore has been funded by equity, Rs. 15,000 crore by debt, and Rs. 10,000 crore by other funding means such as real estate

security deposits and Airport Development Fees


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Executive Summary

Initiative to privatise/develop more airports:Privatised airports have been operating for more than eight years now and their operations

have stabilised. The first round of project capex has been completed and the track record of air traffic movement and non-aeronautical

revenue generation has been established. Traditionally airports in India have been owned and developed by the government, and this was

the sectors initial experience with privatisation. It has been successful in terms of improving revenue generation (the revenue shared by

Delhi International Airport Ltd. (DIAL) and Mumbai International Airport Ltd. (MIAL) with AAI has been more than Rs. 10,000 crore) and the

overall service quality. The sector now awaits the next stage of development. AAI continues to identify existing airports for

expansion/upgrade while also looking to develop greenfield airports. Given the success of privatisation, there could be a case for transfer of

management and development responsibilities of stable airport s to private players and AAI can place a sharper focus on the development of

airport infrastructure in untapped parts of the country. Over the last one year, AAI had taken the initiative to privatise more airports, but the

process has been beset with delays due to various reasons such as protests from many quarters, lack of investor interest, uncertainty on

aspects of regulatory tariff fixing and employee retention.

Challenges to privatisation: Airports are capital intensive projects with a long gestation period. The need to earn a return on this high

upfront capex necessitates higher tariffs (evident from tariff increases at many airports), which however may be resisted by the user group.

The India airports privatised during 2004-06 witnessed sizeable cost overruns, a significant part of which was borne by users in the form of

higher user charges. According to ICRAs estimates, the cost overrun for the four major airports over the ini tial estimates was to the tune of

32%. Thus, better estimation of project cost and completion of projects on time and without cost overruns are important. Further, exposure

to traffic risk is higher for airports which are greenfield in cities without an existing airport, or for those which are second airport in a city.

Accurate assessment of demand and capacity requirements remains a key challenge. Development of a second airport, as is being talked

about for Delhi and Mumbai, would also take away one of the key advantages that this sector has enjoyed so farthat of monopoly.

Increasingly, the monopolistic advantage of incumbents would cease and there would be competitive pressures.

Need to stabilise the regulatory regime: A factor for the success of the privatisation programme has been the development of the regulatory

framework. Constitution of an independent regulator, the Airports Economic Regulatory Authority (AERA), and the tariff decisions it has

made have been positive, although several uncertainties remain. As the sector is entering the next phase of growth with the government

taking steps to privatise/develop more airports, there is a need to build on the learning from the earlier privatisation experience so as tocreate an operating environment that attracts private investment without unduly burdening users. A key issue would be the regulatory

structure pertaining to tariff determination. AERA is proposing a normative approach for tariff determination to standardise the process.

However it is still in the consultation stage and final guidelines would have to be seen. Moreover, there is need to stabilise tariff fixing for

existing airports. So far, for each of the four privatised airports, the tariff orders have varied in certain aspects. For instance, in case of

Bangalore International Airport Ltd. (BIAL) and GMR Hyderabad International Airport Ltd. (GHIAL), while single-till


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Executive Summary

was proposed, hybrid till was eventually allowed (for GHIAL, hybrid till has been allowed by Ministry of Civil Aviation, AERA is yet to issue the

tariff order). Further, there have been delays in final tariff orders. For instance, in case of DIAL and MIAL, while the next regulatory control

period has already begun from April 1, 2014, tariff is yet to be decided. Moreover, there has been uncertainty over some of the key

regulatory issues, such as till factor2, treatment of non-aeronautical revenues, division between aeronautical and non-aeronautical

assets/operations & maintenance (O&M) expenses, treatment of cargo, fuel farm and ground handling revenues. In case of DIAL and MIAL, inthe original tariff determination, some decisions were pending based on inputs from relevant consultants and finalisation of certain issues, as

well as inputs on which true-up or claw-back3is to be allowed. Hence, the determination of tariffs from the next control period especially for

DIAL and MIAL will be keenly watched towards establishing a predictable regulatory regime. In the case of AAI airports as well, while the tariff

fixing approach has been finalised, at several airports AERA is yet to decide the tariff in accordance with its philosophy and at many others

the approvals for User Development Fees (UDF) are ad hoc. For many airports not under AERA purview, AAI has levied UDF primarily on the

basis of the capex undertaken.

Going forward, the sector would benefit from greater uniformity and predictability in regulatory decisions and policy making, specifically on

such aspects as identification of airports needing capex, identification of new airports, models of privatisation, adoption of international best

practices (especially in the use of technology), and role of real estate.

Changing role of AAI: Before privatisation, airport development was primarily equity funded, with AAI doing the funding, drawing on its

steady cash flows and sovereign ownership. Post-privatisation, AAI is still the central agency for the development of the countrys airport

infrastructure and has an active role in the development of several airports and related infrastructure. During the Eleventh Plan period

(FY2008-2012), AAI invested Rs. 11,600 crore in adding to the countrys aviation infrastructure. So far, it can be said that AAI has benefited

financially from the privatisation initiative because of the revenue share from DIAL and MIAL. The Delhi and Mumbai airport operators have

been able to achieve much stronger revenue growth, driven by high tariffs and their ability to harness non-aeronautical revenue streams.

Going forward, the impact of privatisation on AAIs financial position would depend on the model of privatisation followed. AAI may seek a

privatisation structure wherein it is compensated for the revenue lost due to an existing airport going to a private player. However,

privatisation as a mode of development would not always be available if a project does not appear attractive to private developers. Thus, AAI

would continue to pursue its development role for airports (i.e. nation-wide connectivity) especially those with relatively weaker operating

and financial metrics, possibly supported by revenue share from privatised airports. Moreover, AAI remains the sole provider of airnavigation services in the country and thus has a role in improving the corresponding infrastructure.

2Under the single till principle, all airport activities (including aeronautical and non-aeronautical) are taken into consideration when determining the

level of airport charges. This contrasts with the dual till principle, where only aeronautical activities are taken into consideration when setting

charges. In hybrid till, all aeronautical and a percentage on non-aeronautical activities are taken into consideration when setting charges 3True-up is to allow higher tariffs in a control period to compensate for lower than targeted revenue generation in the previous control period.

Claw-back is to reduce the tariffs in a control period to account for higher than targeted revenue generation in the previous control period


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Executive Summary

Traffic growth expected to remain stable; non-aeronautical revenues likely to increase:The sector has so far had the benefit of robust

traffic growth, and going forward, the overall traffic trajectory should be positive. Nevertheless, blips, as were witnessed in FY2009 and

FY2013, cannot be ruled out in the medium term. Indian airports remain vulnerable to such blips given their high upfront capex and fixed

costs, whereas the revenues are linked to traffic movement. Against this, non-aeronautical revenues such as income from rentals, long-term

fixed income agreements with concessionaires, advertising, and real estate, are relatively resilient to short -term volatility in traffic levels. So

far the potential of the non-aeronautical revenue stream has not been tapped fully, but the situation is changing with private operators as

well as AAI making focused efforts to grow this revenue source. According to ICRAs analysis, for developed airports internat ionally, the share

of non-aeronautical revenues is 30-55% as against 23-40% for Indian airports. Going forward, the contribution of non-aeronautical revenues

is expected to increase.

Exposure to financial conditions of airlines a risk: Higher reliance on aeronautical revenues has also exposed the sector to counter-party

credit risks arising from the financial position of the airlines concerned. Most airlines in India have been under financial stress for several

reasons and this has impacted the airports in the form of high receivable levels. While the airports have been able to manage the financial

situation so far, future development of airports (to enhance capacities and reach untapped areas) and their revenue growth could be

impacted by a weak airline industry that is unable to exploit the enhanced capacities.

AERA yet to finalise regulatory treatment of real estate monetisation: Real estate monetisation is an important component of the airport

privatisation process and its role in airport development needs to be clearly established. So far, large tracts of land have been given to private

airport developers with a view to improving project viability. However, monetisation of the same has been low and has not contributed

materially to improving the financial flexibility of the airports and reducing user charges. The regulatory treatment of real estate with regard

to the ways in which it can be monetised and how the valuation, revenues, and profits from real estate would be treated in tariff

determination is yet to be finalised by AERA.

Consolidated sector analysis points to improving financial health over last few years: A consolidated analysis of five airport entities (out of

the six) in the country - AAI, CIAL, BIAL, DIAL, and GHIAL - shows that the sectors overall financial performance improved over the period

FY2010 to FY2014, driven by steady growth in traffic, increase in non-aeronautical revenues, additional revenue generation through UDF, andstabilisation of privatised airports. For FY2013 and FY2014, the improvement was also driven by tariff revision at DIAL. The consolidated

turnover stood at Rs. 11,822 crore for FY2014 with profit after tax (PAT) at Rs. 1,906 crore. The consolidated gross fixed asset stood at Rs.

42,858 crore with debt at Rs. 12,762 crore. The debt coverage metrics of the sector remained comfortable with interest coverage at 5.77x

and Debt/Operating Profit at 2.13x as of March 31, 2014.


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Whats inside?

1. Increasingly liberalised Civil Aviation sector in India ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 11

2. Air traffic: on a steady growth plane 190 million and flying .......................................................................................................................................................................... 13

2.1 Non-metro airports increasing passenger movement ........................................................................................................................................................................15

3. Need for expansion of airport infrastructure in the country ............................................................................................................................................................................ 18

4. AAI

the state-owned airport developer; diminishing though still important role ......................................................................................................................................... 19

4.1 AAIs Financial Performance ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................19

4.2 Sizeable development initiatives by AAI so far.......................................................................................................................................................................................20

4.3 Kolkata and Chennai Airport Expansion significant time and cost overruns .......................................................................................................................................20

4.4 Impact on airports privatisation on AAIs passenger traffic distribution; attention to non-metro airports ..........................................................................................21

5. International models of airport development .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 22

5.1 Privatisation............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................22

5.2 Specific issues and challenges ................................................................................................................................................................................................................25

6. Privatisation in India ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 27

6.1 Contractual Structure: 2 models for airport privatisation ......................................................................................................................................................................27

6.2 Key differences between DIAL/MIAL and BIAL/GHIAL concessions .......................................................................................................................................................29

6.3 Similarities in Sponsor Profile .................................................................................................................................................................................................................30

6.4 Revenue share with AAIa key point of difference between DIAL/MIAL and BIAL/GHIAL ..................................................................................................................31

6.5 Timelines and Concession Period ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................31

6.6 Monopolistic characteristic ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................32

6.7 Capex and Funding .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................32

6.8 International traffic more lucrative ........................................................................................................................................................................................................35

7. Revenue Streams and Tariff Determination ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 36

7.1 Agencies for Regulation and Collection of charges ................................................................................................................................................................................36

7.2 Aeronautical Revenues for the privatized airports ................................................................................................................................................................................38

7.3 Constitution of AERA ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................40

7.4 Levy of UDF .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................42

7.5 Tariff Determination for the four private airports .................................................................................................................................................................................43

7.6 Summary of tariff decisions for the four privatised airports ..................................................................................................................................................................55

7.7 Normative Approach to Tariff determination ........................................................................................................................................................................................56

8. Tariffs at AAI airports different models in place ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 58

8.1 Discussion on Tariff orders for Chennai and Kolkata Airports................................................................................................................................................................59

8.2 UDF at AAI airports .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................60

9. Non-aeronautical revenues .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 62

9.1 What constitutes non-aeronautical revenues ........................................................................................................................................................................................62

9.2 International Perspective .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................62

9.3 Traditionally low contribution from non-aeronautical services in India; rising trend observed ............................................................................................................64

9.4 Regulatory treatment of Cargo Facility, Ground Handling and Fuel Supply...........................................................................................................................................65


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9.5 SPV structure for non-aeronautical revenues ........................................................................................................................................................................................66

10. Real Estate: important part of privatisation ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 67

10.1 DIAL/MIAL ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................68

10.2 BIAL/GHIAL .........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................68

10.3 Role of real estate in the airport development .................................................................................................................................................................................69

11. Consolidated Financial Analysis of the Industry ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 70

12. Industry Outlookwhat the future holds and key risks to watch out ............................................................................................................................................................. 73

Annex 1: Key terms of DIAL/MIAL concession documents ...................................................................................................................................................................................78Annex 2: Key terms of BIAL/GHIAL concession documents ....................................................................................................................................................................................79

Annex 3: DIAL/MIAL Schedule 1 of the SSA .............................................................................................................................................................................................................80

Annex 4: Key sections of the AERA Act 2008 ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................82

Annex 5: Key parts of the AERA Order on Regulatory Philosophy in Economic Regulation of Airport Operators ..................................................................................................83

Annex 6: Key terms of the AERA Terms and Conditions for Determination of Tariff for Services Provided for Cargo Facility, Ground Handling and Supply of Fuel ...................86

Annex 7: Schedule of Aviation and Cargo charges at AAI airports ..........................................................................................................................................................................88


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List of Tables

Table 1: Airports density in some major countries ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 18Table 2: International examples of models of airport development .............................................................................................................................................................................. 23Table 3: Key Agreements for Indian JVCs ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 28Table 4: Difference between DIAL/MIAL and BIAL/GHIAL Concession ........................................................................................................................................................................... 29Table 5: Ownership Structure of JVCs in India ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 30Table 6: Timelines of project implementation of privatised airports ............................................................................................................................................................................. 31Table 7: JVC agreement terms pertaining to competition from new airports ................................................................................................................................................................ 32Table 8: ADF Levy at DIAL and MIAL ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34Table 9: Collecting agencies for aeronautical revenues ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 37Table 11: Tariff fixation guidelines for BIAL/GHIAL......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38Table 10: Tariff fixation guidelines for DIAL/MIAL .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 39Table 12: Components of Aeronautical Revenues ACI, Europe ................................................................................................................................................................................... 43Table 13: Sequence of tariff determination at private airports ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 43Table 14: Key Terms of the DIAL Tariff Order for first control period ............................................................................................................................................................................ 44Table 15 : Key terms of the DIAL tariff consultation paper for second control period .................................................................................................................................................... 46Table 16 : Key Terms of the MIAL Tariff Order for first contro l period ........................................................................................................................................................................... 48Table 17: Difference between DIAL and MIAL tariff orders ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 50Table 18: Key Terms of the GHIAL Tariff Order for first control period .......................................................................................................................................................................... 51Table 19: Key Terms of the BIAL Tariff Order for first control period ............................................................................................................................................................................. 53Table 20: Summary of Tariff schedule at AAI airports .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 58Table 21: Key terms of Kolkata Airport Tariff order ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 59Table 22: Levy of UDF at some of the AAI operated airports ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 60 Table 23: Illustration for UDF calculation working - Ahmadabad airport ....................................................................................................................................................................... 61Table 24 : Non-Aeronautical revenue as % of total revenues for some int ernational airports ....................................................................................................................................... 63Table 25: Non-aeronautical revenues of some of the private airports........................................................................................................................................................................... 65Table 26: Amount of land provided to privatised airports ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 67

Table 27:ICRA Ratings on Indian Aviation Infrastructure Players .................................................................................................................................................................................. 71 Table 28: AAIs receivables ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 76Table 29: Tariff Determination Methodology ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 85


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List of Figures

Figure 1: Trend of All-India Passenger Traffic Domestic and International ................................................................................................................................................................. 13Figure 2: Trend of All-India Aircraft Traffic Domestic and International ..................................................................................................................................................................... 13Figure 3: Trend of All-India Cargo Traffic Domestic and International ........................................................................................................................................................................ 14Figure 4:Share of non-metro airports to the total traffic .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 15Figure 5: Trend of Passenger Traffic at Non-Metro Airports .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 15Figure 6:Trend of Aircraft Traffic at Non-Metro Airports .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 16 Figure 7: Non-metro airports - traffic growth ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 17Figure 8: AAI Revenue and PAT trend Figure 9: AAI Revenue Break-up ............................................................................................................................................... 19Figure 10: AAI airport-wise contribution to passenger traffic during stages of privatisation...................................................................................................................................... 21Figure 11:Ownership Pattern Airports in Europe (ACI) .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 25Figure 12:Contractual Structure of DIAL/MIAL .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 28Figure 13: AAI revenue share from DIAL and MIAL ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 31Figure 14: Initial project cost of the Airports Figure 15: Final project cost of the Airports .......................................................................................................... 33Figure 16: Funding plan for the Airports ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 33Figure 17: Share of International Traffic at major airports ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 35Figure 18: Structure of charges at airports ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37Figure 19: Aero Revenue Tarif f fixation Methodology - Price-Cap model with Single Till .............................................................................................................................................. 41Figure 20:Non-Aeronautical revenues by sourceACI airports CY12 ........................................................................................................................................................................ 63Figure 21: Non-Aeronautical revenue as % of total revenues (AAI) ............................................................................................................................................................................... 64 Figure 22: % of revenue generated f rom real estate International airports ............................................................................................................................................................... 67Figure 23: Industry Financial Analysis - Steady Growth in Revenue; Improving Profitability and Return Indicators ..................................................................................................... 70Figure 24: Industry Financial Analysis - Growth in Asset Base; Improving debt metrics ................................................................................................................................................ 70


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airport infr_indian airports infrastructure sector october 2015 next phase of development requires...

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