Atmospherically induced hazards in the coastal zone and the possibility of their decadal and centennial predictionA.Kislov, G.Surkova, D.Gushina, P.Toropov, D.Blinov. Dpt. Of Meteorology and Climatology NRAL, 14.12.2012

ContentsPreparation of the meteorological observations for all working groupsPreparation of initial conditions for the start of the "sea models Hazardous weather explicit modeling (bora, cyclones) in the COSMO and WRF Identification of synoptic conditions, corresponding to different hazards Projection of extreme atmospheric processes under the climate change

ContentsPreparation of the meteorological observations for all working groupsPreparation of initial conditions for the start of the "sea models Hazardous weather explicit modeling (bora, cyclones) in the COSMO and WRF Identification of synoptic conditions, corresponding to different hazards Projection of extreme atmospheric processes under the climate change

Archive of station dataVariables:Pressure, surface air temperature, water vapor pressure, wind speed and direction, characteristics of cloudiness, current weatherOBSERVATION PERIOD: maximum period of the data span is 01.01.1871 to 01.01.2001 most stations (more 60%) operated during the period 1936-1990 The measurements were made: 3times a day before 1936 4 times a day at mean astronomic times during the 1936-1965 period. 8 times a day at United Time Coordinate (UTC) since 01.01. 1966structure of the data archive:Archive contains three types of data files (ID index of station):STN_ID.dat (2095 files, 1 per station), data in ASCIISTN_ID.flg (2095 files, 1 per station), quality marks of dataussr_hly_stn.list.txt (1 file with essential station metadata such as station identifier, coordinates, elevation, date of the first and the last records, and station name)Density measuring network

Calendars of hazardous weather Hazardous weather (HW) cases selection three calendars

1) Calendar for extreme observed wave storms and surges (1948-2012)

2) Calendar for wave storms with significant wave height 4 m modelled by wave model SWAN (1948-2012)

3) Calendar of hazardous weather (HW) in the future (2046-2065) detected by the statistical methods, data of numerical climate simulations (CMIP3)

ContentsPreparation of the meteorological observations for all working groupsPreparation of initial conditions for the start of the "sea models Hazards explicit modeling (bora, cyclones) in the COSMO and WRF Identification of synoptic conditions, corresponding to different hazards Projection of extreme atmospheric processes under the climate change

Initial and boundary conditions for wave modellingReanalysisNCEP/NCAR (1948-2012)1,9x1,9 degreeMesoscale non-hydrostatic atmospheric model COSMO-RUERA-40 (1958-2002)2,5x2,5 degreeSurface WIND DATAERA-Interim (1979-2012) , 1x1 degreeEvery 6 hoursDownloading data => decoding => preparing for selected area

ContentsPreparation of the meteorological observations for all working groupsPreparation of initial conditions for the start of the "sea models Hazardous weather explicit modeling (bora, cyclones) in the COSMO and WRF Identification of synoptic conditions, corresponding to different hazards Projection of extreme atmospheric processes under the climate change

Some results of the statistical evaluation of forecast accuracya) the average forecast (blue line) and observed (red line) wind speed; b) the empirical pdf of forecast (red bars) and actual (blue bars) wind speeds over the test area (along the horizontal axis the intervals in m/s), c) modal values of wind speed: forecast (red line) and the actual value (blue line) (along the horizontal axis hours forecast).

Wind speed (a,c) and wave heights (b,d) at the time of Novorosiysk bora averaged over 26. 01.2012 analysis of NCEP/NCAR 1 1

WRF-ARW

wave heights calculated by the model SWAN

On the way to the forecast of water flood in Sochi-Tuapse in October 2010 by COSMO-RU Precipitation during last 12 hours. Forecast for 10:00 MSK 16.10.201066 hours ahead48 hours ahead24 hours aheadModel is capable to simulate the extreme runoff during the flood. Forecast of water surface runoff by COSMO-RU. Runoff during previous 24 hours

ContentsPreparation of the meteorological observations for all working groupsPreparation of initial conditions for the start of the "sea models Hazardous weather explicit modeling (bora, cyclones) in the COSMO and WRF Identification of synoptic conditions, corresponding to different hazards Projection of extreme atmospheric processes under the climate change

Predictors: large zonal frontal zone expanding in north-south direction, temperature jumps precipitations fall conditions, wind direction in the mouth of river etcPredictors: the main factor is abundant precipitation. No unified scheme of synoptic situation, but the intensive frontal zone is always presentedSynoptic situations associated to the various types of flood Storm surgesWater-flowPredictors: trajectories of depressions, wind speed and wind direction, duration of wind forcingIce-jamNeva River 28.10.2006 12 UTCDon River 28.02.2005 12 UTCMzymta 26.10.1997 00 UTCPechora 2.06.2008 12 UTC

ContentsPreparation of the meteorological observations for all working groupsPreparation of initial conditions for the start of the "sea models Hazardous weather explicit modeling (bora, cyclones) in the COSMO and WRF Identification of synoptic conditions, corresponding to different hazards Projection of extreme atmospheric processes under the climate change

Interannual, decadal and centennial hazardous weather projections. How they can be predicted?

CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) G.Meehl

Method of hazardous weather projection for a long time: step by step

Wind speed more than 15 m/s: observation, hindcasting, projecting

The Black Sea costal wind observations (1948-2011)

Climate change and storm events frequency

time series of V 15 m/s dont show obvious trends;

synoptic features for storm events: it is reveled that prevailing of 1st type of SLP fields for storms took place for the last 60 years and it is expected to continue in the 21 century;

climate projection based on ECHAM5 simulation shows slight redistribution of monthly frequency of strong winds and conservation of the ration of storms SLP fields types

The same projecting extreme wind speed for the Caspian SeaMPI-ECHAM5I type65 %II type35 %Caspian Sea 137 cases of HW (wave height >4 m)

The probability of occurrence of predictors for water flows in the Black sea region was estimated for modern climate and global warming conditions using the outputs of ECHAM5/MPI-OM model. It is shown that the occurrence of intensive frontal zone in the South of Russia will increase (decrease) in summer (winter) under warmer climate conditions which may contribute to the increase of water flow risks in summer. Change of occurrence of water flows predictor under warmer climate in the Black sea area

Number of cases1961-19801981-20002046-2065Winter303381217grad T> 18oC/1000 km131713grad T>18oC/1000 km precipitation>20 mm/daySummer203875grad T> 12oC/1000 km112grad T>12oC/1000 km precipitation>20 mm/day

Number of cases with intensive frontal zoneWinterNumber of casesYearsNumber of cases with intensive frontal zoneSummerNumber of casesYearsChange of intensive frontal zone occurrence in the Black sea area

Conclusions and future planefficiency of prognostic methodology for changes of hazardous weather have been demonstrated

model MPI-ECHAM5 shows good agreement with assessment of frequency of storms SLP fields and used for projection of storms frequency in 21 century; it allows to hope that this technique can give relevant practice information

All CMIP5 models will be used for realization of this task, based both on different RCPs and different decadal forecasting

Thank you!G.Meehl. 2012.Hamburg

1948-2010reanalysisMPI-ECHAM5Frequency of each of 19 HW and climate projection Black Sea

HW types for data series 2 and 3 (SWAN calendar, 1948-2010)Black Sea 137 cases of HW (wave height >4 m)Weather types are revealed by EOF and cluster analysis two main statistically significant typesI type43 %II type57 %Surface pressure - centroids

EOFHW typeIII10,440,4520,200,2130,100,1040,070,0750,040,0460,030,0370,030,0280,020,02

How we can predict unmodelable processes based on climate simulation: application to the problem of predicting of hazardous storm wind speeds on the shores of the Black SeaFirst, we have to establish a relationship in quantitative terms (based on observations) between storm wind speed and sea-level pressure (SLP) fieldSecond, we will test how well climate model reproduce the desired features of SLP. Third, to determine what changes occur in the SLP climate forecast. Fourth, we have to make the transition to the prediction of the studied hazard storm. /First & Second/ Storms over the Black Sea area have been studied for the last 60 years based on reanalysis data and coastal observations. A wind speed of 15 m/s is chosen as a threshold to detect the storm situation. EOF analyses of SLP are applied to identify the main types of atmospheric circulations causing severe winds and storm waves. The first three EOFs cover more than 70% of the total dispersion in all cases. This fact allows to create a data bank of filtered SLP pattern for previous storms and to compare any single case with the data base. wind

Important changes of the storm activity on the shores of the Black Sea will not be expected under the future global warming scenario/Third &Fourth /Data source: CMIP3Data type: daily sea level pressure (SLP)Climate model:MPI-ECHAM5 (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology,Hamburg, Germany)Numerical experiments ID:- 20C3M (1961-2000); A2(SRES scenario) 2046-2065Purpose:to verify model ability to simulate relative frequency and number of storm events (similarity of SLP fields with corr>=0.85); - to check possible changes of storm events frequency in 21 century; MPI-ECHAM5: Relative frequency of storm events (left) and number of days (right)Wind direction frequency for events when daily V>=15 m/s Monthly frequency for events when daily V>=15 m/s Wind speed over the sea for events when daily V>=15 m/s at least in one grid point

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.., , avkislov@mail.ru

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