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TRANSCRIPT
Virtual Roundtable
September 22, 2020
Industry Joint Business Planning
Introductory Session with Tracie Russ
Industry Joint Business Planning – Introductory Session
ALA DISCLAIMER
"ALA operates under a policy of strict compliance with federal and state antitrust laws. Violations of those laws can pose serious consequences for ALA and its officers, directors, staff, and members. Be sure to read the ALA
Antitrust Compliance Statement contained in your board books and let me know if you ever have any questions or
concerns about these issues."
ALA COMMISSARY COUNCIL, ROUNDTABLE COMMITTEE CHAIR
Stephanie Supplee, Coastal Pacific Food Distributors
Virtual RoundtableIndustry Joint Business Planning
September 22, 2020
Industry Joint Business Planning – Introductory Session
Defense Commissary Agency
Tracie Russ
Director, Sales
Industry Joint Business PlanningSeptember 22, 2020
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STATE OF THE INDUSTRY
September 22, 2020Presented by: Nielsen
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Source: Nielsen
KEY INSIGHTS
1 2
High unemployment and low
consumer confidence will
restrict spending and limiting
GDP growth
Food costs on the rise due to
rising production costs, limited
assortment and reduced
promotions
COVID-19 further drives growth
for Ecommerce, an already
growing topic before the
pandemic took place.
AOC continues to see strong
growth for the latest 2 quarters
despite rising unit prices and
COVID-19 social impacts
(dining at home).
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ECONOMIC INDICATORS
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Source: Census.gov, Federal Bureau of Prisons, Federal Reserve
ECONOMIC IMPACTS
COVID-19 INFLATION
& PRICING
LEADING & LAGGING
INDICATORS
Enhanced unemployment benefits to end July 31st
Schools cautiously reopen in-
person and online
Restaurant spending remains
low compared to pre-covid
Rising production costs
Limited assortments & supply
chain
Reduced promotions
Historic decline in GDP
Housing construction gains
after initial pandemic slow-
down
Manufacturers invest in
machinery and equipment
CONSUMER
OUTLOOK
Low consumer confidence
reducing future spend
Presidential election causes
uncertainty
High workforce competition
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Source: Consumer Confidence Board, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis | Latest Update: 9/2/20
ECONOMIC STIMULUS RUNS, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AT LOWEST LEVELS IN PAST 6 YEARS
Consumer Confidence Index:
A barometer of the health of economy
from the perspective of the consumer.
U.S. Consumer
Confidence Index
84.6▼+0.9% vs July
10.2%▼ vs July
17.8%▼ vs July
$29.39▲ vs July
Unemployment Rate
Employment continues to drop but remains
stubbornly high as businesses cautiously reopen
Personal Savings Rate
Savings are at historic highs as consumers are
limited in places to spend and supplemented
with government stimulus
Average Hourly Wage
As lower paying jobs were eliminated, the
average hourly wage spiked and remained
almost unchanged from June into July
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Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis , US Census Bureau | Latest Update: 9/2/20
PEOPLE ARE EATING MORE AT HOME
Personal Consumption
Expenditures
-3.0%vs Year Ago
+11%Food Retail
+0.4%All Other Retail
(exclu. Auto & Gas)
-19%Food Service and
Drinking Places
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Source: US Census Bureau Time Series, Food Services and Drinking Places, Nielsen Total US+Conv POS scan | Latest Update: 7/31/20
RESTAURANT SALES HAVE DECLINED BY $91.1B
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Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - Consumer Price Index | vs LY - Latest Update: 9/2/20
RISING COST OF FOOD COULD IMPACT LOYALTY
Consumer Price Index
+1.0%vs Year Ago
-11.2%Energy
+4.1%Food
+4.6%Food At Home
+3.4%Food Away From Home
(Larger share of the two)
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Source: Indexmundi Commodity Pricing | Latest Update: 9/2/20
RECENT FOOD TRANSPORT COSTS ARE RISING
Commodity% Price Chg vs
prior month
% 12-month
Price Chg vs LY
Beverages
Cocoa Beans -5.83 % -13.22 %
Coffee, Other Mild Arabicas 3.85 % 8.36 %
Coffee, Robusta 4.93 % -8.59 %
Tea -3.78 % -17.97 %
Fuel
Crude Oil (Petroleum) 6.61 % -31.57 %
Gasoline 8.83 % -35.45 %
Diesel 10.32 % -35.42 %
Propane -1.01 % 0.82 %
Metal
Aluminum 4.80 % -8.52 %
Tin 3.75 % -2.83 %
Agricultural Raw Materials
Cotton 1.34 % -9.58 %
Rubber 5.71 % -11.38 %
Commodity% Price Chg vs
prior month
% 12-month
Price Chg vs LY
Bananas -2.31 % 12.39 %
Barley 0.0 % -46.15 %
Beef -7.84 % 1.51 %
Coconut Oil -3.45 % 35.14 %
Fishmeal 2.69 % -0.61 %
Maize (corn) 3.08 % -19.46 %
Oranges 1.54 % 22.22 %
Palm Oil 6.53 % 27.63 %
Peanut Oil 10.38 % 30.55 %
Groundnuts (peanuts) -3.16 % 57.56 %
Poultry (chicken) -3.82 % -24.12 %
Rice -7.69 % 15.38 %
Shrimp 3.22 % -3.32 %
Soybeans 3.61 % 3.11 %
Sugar 0.00 % -3.57 %
Sunflower Oil 7.75 % 10.36 %
Wheat 0.0 % 1.13 %
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OMNI-CHANNEL TRENDS
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Source: Nielsen Retail ACView, Q2/20
STORE CHANGES OF MAJOR RETAILERS
Aggressive expansion of Dollar Stores and Discounters but
contraction in Drug
Food Channel # of Stores Change vs YA
Kroger 2,742 -25
Albertsons 2,202 -12
Aldi 1,999 +107
Ahold/Delhaize 1,974 +2
Publix 1,248 +29
SEG 548 -8
Trader Joe’s 505 +17
Whole Foods 488 +14
S-A-L 421 -4
Grocery Outlet 360 +32
Lidl 65 +57
xAOC # of Stores Change vs YA
Dollar General 16,621 +928
Dollar Tree 5,515 +443
Walmart 5,200 -14
Walgreens 8,664 -384
CVS 793 -26
RiteAid 2,455 -9
Target 1,867 +24
Costco 514 +11
Variety Wholesalers 309 +38
Meijer 252 +6
BJ’s 219 +2
-307 +689
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Same-Store-Sales Growth: latest quarter 2020 versus year ago
Source: Company press releases; monthly or quarterly news releases – excluding gas; *Includes Q2 2020 reporting
COVID-19 WITH BROAD & BIG IMPACT IN 2020
Red arrows indicate worse than year ago performance
COVID-19
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Source: Nielsen Homescan Panel, 52 W/E 08/22/20
ONLINE GAINED MOST SHOPPERS AND TRIPS
Shoppers spend more in B&M. Drug and Premier Fresh lost trips
CLUB DOLLAR DRUG
ONLINE
SHOPPING WALMART TARGET
PREMIERE
FRESH
GROCERY VALUE
CONV.
GROCERY
Market Share 10.1% 5.3% 4.8% 2.8% 21.9% 4.3% 1.4% 3.8% 37.3%
Point Change 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 0.8 -1.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2
% Penetration 54.0% 69.2% 69.7% 44.6% 81.5% 55.2% 22.8% 40.0% 94.8%
Point Change 0.9 -1.0 -1.2 7.2 -1.6 0.4 -0.3 0.6 -0.8
Buy Rate $1,103 $449 $408 $365 $1,581 $458 $356 $556 $2,315
Absolute Change $80.47 $35.83 $14.15 $87.15 $101.33 $33.44 $34.43 $51.75 $294.42
Frequency 15.3 31.6 18.9 8.7 34.2 13.3 13.7 18.6 63.6
Absolute Change 0.5 0.5 -1.1 2.2 0 0.3 -0.4 -0.1 2.8
Basket Size $72.14 $14.20 $21.59 $41.93 $46.25 $34.42 $25.95 $29.97 $36.40
Absolute Change $3.19 $0.94 $1.88 -$0.71 $3.01 $1.78 $3.23 $2.89 $3.19
All Shoppers
Shopper Loyalty: Share of dollars that each retailer’s shoppers spend in their stores
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Source: Nielsen + Rakuten, 52 W/E 08/25/2020, Total US xAOC, UPC & Random Weight
E-COM EXPLODES DURING THE PANDEMIC, BUT ALSO B&M SALES SEE STRONG GROWTH
Brick & Mortar
E-Commerce
Includes store level e-com
fulfillment such as click & collect
and 3rd party delivery.
2019 2020Dollar Trend (%) 27.6 46.1
Dollar Trend Amazon (%) 31..2 41.4
Amazon Market Share 26.6 51.7
2018 2019 2020Dollar Trend (%) 1.6 2.0 8.7
Unit Trend (%) -0.2 -0.2 4.7
Avg Unit Price (%) 1.3 2.4 4.2
% Unit sold on
Promo33.5 32.9 29.2
Online sales being fulfilled
outside of store level
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Source: https://www.nielsen.com/global/en/consumer-insights-for-fmcg-retail-manufacturers-coronavirus-covid-19/how-americans-are-shopping-during-covid-19/
ONLINE SHOPPING HAS ACCELERATED
+49%Online growth since Covid started
● 67% Increase in Trips
● 21% More Items in Basket
● 13% Lower Item Value
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Source: Nielsen POS Scan, Store Level Fulfillment, WE 3/14/20 - WE 09/05/20, UPC & Random Weight
SALES ARE UP DOUBLE-DIGIT SINCE MID MARCH, DRIVEN BY NON-PROMO PRICES AND COVID-19
+16.6%
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Source: Nielsen POS Scan, Store Level Fulfillment, 52 W/E 09/05/2020 UPC & Random Weight
COVID-19 EFFECT: SUPPLY CHAIN UNDER PRESSURE
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Source: Nielsen POS Scan, Store Level Fulfillment, 52 W/E 09/05/2020 UPC & Random Weight
PROMOTIONAL ACTIVITY DECLINED SINCE MARCH
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Source: Nielsen POS Scan, Store Level Fulfillment, 52 W/E 09/05/2020 UPC & Random Weight
STEEP PRICE INCREASES AS A RESULT OF LOWER PROMOTION ACTIVITY
● Retail prices jumped dramatically
since COVID - until March, only
inflationary price increases
● Avg prices are on the downswing
over the last few weeks
*) Avg. prices don’t reflect customer price perception as not
indicative of assortment mix or sizes
`
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Source: Nielsen POS Scan, Store Level Fulfillment, 52 W/E 09/05/2020 UPC & Random Weight
STORE BRANDS GROWING RAPIDLY
Categories (PL)Dollar %
Change
vs YA
Share on
Cat
xAOC xAOC
Hand Sanitizer 41.3 16.4%
Rubbing Alcohol 3.9 71.6%
Baking Powder 49.2 23.4
Dried Beans 19.3 47.4%
Baking Chips 37.1 17.7%
Flour and Meal 27.9 21.1%
Extracts 22.8 29.1%
Seasonings 26.3 9.0%
Hydrogen Peroxide -9.5 70.2%
Tomato Paste 20.9 31.0%
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Source: Nielsen Homescan Panel, 52 W/E 08/22/20
PL GAINS SHARE FOR WALMART, TARGET, PREMIERE FRESH
Point change
vs YA0.2 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.8 1.4 -0.2 0
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Source: Nielsen Homescan Panel, 52 W/E 07/27/20
ALL OUTLET SALES SPIKED, DRIVEN BY HIGHER DOLLAR PER TRIP
Dollar Sales
Avg HH Spend
+9.9%
Households (HH)
+0.7%
Purchase Size
+8.5%
Trips per HH
+1.3%
All Outlets
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Source: Nielsen POS Scan, Total DeCA CONUS ex AK & HI including xAOC, 52 W/E 08/22/2020 UPC ONLY
GROWTH ACROSS ALMOST ALL DEPARTMENTS
Performance by departments
Seafood
Produce
General
Merchandise
Meat
Alcoholic
Beverage
Grocery
Deli Bakery
Frozen
Health Beauty Tobacco
Household
Care
Pet Care
Baby Care
Dairy
Refrigerated
LEGEND
➔ Dollar change: green >0.5%, red < -0.5%
➔ Dollar change: dark green >10%
➔ Square size not reflective of size of business
xAOC
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Source: Nielsen POS Scan, Store Level Fulfillment, 52 W/E 09/05/2020 UPC & Random Weight
KITCHEN STAPLES, CLEANERS SOAR
Categories Dollar % Change vs YA
Top 150 categories based on 52 week $ volume, ranked on xAOC
growthxAOC US E-Com
FMB/CIDER 69.5 538.3
MULTI PURPOSE CLEANERS 33.7 85.8
SHRIMP 26.8 N/A
SEASONINGS 25.7 N/A
SOAP 22.2 75.9
HERBS AND SPICES 21.9 N/A
RICE 21.1 86.6
DISH SOAP 20.8 92.1
SPARKLING WATER 20.2 60
CORN 19.9 86
HIGH GROWTH CATEGORIES IN B&M
Brick & Mortar
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Source: Nielsen POS Scan, Store Level Fulfillment, 52 W/E 09/05/2020 UPC & Random Weight
QUICK MEALS, SOME PERSONAL CARE DECLINE
Categories Dollar % Change vs YA
Top 150 categories based on 52 week $ volume, ranked on xAOC growth xAOC US E-Com
GUM -13.2 35.9
BLADES AND MANUAL RAZOR -4.6 18.6
HEALTH/NUTRITION BARS -3.7 27.4
DISPOSABLE DIAPERS -2.3 22.4
CEREAL AND GRANOLA BARS -1.0 74.5
LUNCH COMBOS -0.4 n/a
INFANT FORMULA -0.1 39.4
TRADITIONAL DAIRY YOGURT 0.3 52.5
SNACK MIXES 0.5 N/A
CAT LITTER 1.2 43.4
SLOW GROWTH CATEGORIES IN B&M
Brick & Mortar
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Source: Nielsen + Rakuten, 52 W/E 06/30/20, Total US xAOC + Convenience, UPC & Random Weight
*) DeCA currently doesn’t provide e-comm sales to Nielsen
TOP GROWTH CATEGORIES IN E-COM SHOW ALSO STRONG SALES GROWTH IN B&M
E-Commerce
Online sales being fulfilled
outside of stores
Categories Dollar % Change vs YA
xAOC US E-Com
ALCOHOL > COOLERS, CIDER & BOTTLED COCKTAILS 70.2% 538.3%
HBC> BATH & SHOWER > HAND SANITIZER 187.5% 458.4%
FOOD > BAKING SUPPLIES > YEAST 59.1% 192.2%
FOOD > MEAT ALTERNATIVE 40.0% 167.8%
HBC> COSMETICS AND NAIL GROOMING > NAIL APPLIANCES 53.4% 158.8%
ALCOHOL > BEER/FMB/CIDER > BEER 6.6% 158.5%
HBC> COSMETICS AND NAIL GROOMING > NAIL ACCESSORIES 22.0% 144.3%
HBC> UPPER RESPIRATORY > SORE THROAT > SPRAY 4.5% 135.3%
FOOD > MILK PRODUCTS > CONDENSED, EVAP&POWDERED
MILK21.9% 134.2%
HBC> UPPER RESPIRATORY > COUGH, COLD & FLU 8.4% 129.7%
FOOD > SALTY SNACKS > CHEESE SNACK > PUFF 8.9% 113.6%
ALCOHOL > TOTAL WINE 9.2% 110.1%
FOOD > DRY EGGS 34.5% 107.3%
HOUSEHOLD CARE > LAUNDRY CARE > BLEACH 18.1% 106.8%
DESSERT TOPPINGS > MARSHMALLOW AND CREAM TOPPING 4.1% 103.0%
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WRAP UP
● COVID-19 wracked the economy, but brought $-gains to Food retailers as consumers cook
more at home and spend less on food away from home
● E-commerce saw large increases in shoppers and sales, especially for HHLD Care, Personal
Care, and kitchen staples
● Retailers faced supply chain issues and promoted less, leading to an increase in avg prices
● Store Brands show strong growth as consumers prepare for economic headwinds
This artwork was created using Nielsen data.
Copyright © 2020 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
SHAPING A SMARTER MARKET™
ALA COMMISSARY COUNCIL, JBP COMMITTEE CO-CHAIR
Mike Bender, Proctor & Gamble
Virtual RoundtableIndustry Joint Business Planning
September 22, 2020
Industry Joint Business Planning – Introductory Session
Why Have A JBP?
• Identifies mutual category priorities, focus areas, strategies
• Alignment to Vision and Goals
• Alignment across all levels/functions (top-down, bottom-up)
• Accelerated Value Creation
Industry Joint Business Planning – Introductory Session
How Are Sessions Designed to Flow?
• DeCA Category Managers will lead the discussion
• Approximately 20 minutes will be spent on each category
• All participants will be muted
• Industry will have the ability to offer input via the “Raising The Hand” option or type a question via “Chat”
• A scribe has been assigned to take notes for each section based on input
• Upon completion JBP’s will be distributed back to Industry as needed
Industry Joint Business Planning – Introductory Session
Outcome of JBP’s
• JBP’s are Joint Business Plans where both DeCA and Industry come together to develop key actions to move the business forward though dialog and open conversation
• We will meet on a regular cadence, based upon the category, to ensure JBP commitments are followed and updated as needed
• Both DeCA and Industry own the results
• Working together to drive success is our #1 goal
Industry Joint Business Planning – Introductory Session
JBP Session Schedule
Tuesday, September 221100 – 1200: Tracie Russ, Director, Sales – Kick-off / Overview 1400 – 1530: Barbara Merriweather, CM – RTE Cereal, Soup, Coffee, Spices
Wednesday, September 231100 – 1230: Rena Dial, CM – Paper, Laundry, Household, Pet Food 1300 – 1430: Jessica Stables, CM – Cheese, Yogurt, Refrigerated Juice, Frozen Prepared Meals 1500 – 1630: Darrell Clary, CM – Bacon, Sausage/Lunchmeat, Juice, Water
Thursday, September 241100 – 1230: Iveena Henderson, CM – CSD, Snacks, Cookies/Crackers, Candy 1300 – 1430: Bridget Bennett, CM – Specialty Produce, Cut Fruit & Veg, Salad Mix1500 – 1630: LaRue Smith, CM – Oral Care, Shaving Needs, Diapers & Training Pants, Body Wash & Soaps
Need Help Registering? Email [email protected]
Industry Joint Business Planning – Introductory Session
ALA COMMISSARY COUNCIL, ROUNDTABLE COMMITTEE CHAIR
Stephanie Supplee, Coastal Pacific Food Distributors
Virtual RoundtableIndustry Joint Business Planning
September 22, 2020
Industry Joint Business Planning – Introductory Session
Virtual Roundtable
September 22, 2020
Industry Joint Business Planning
Introductory Session with Tracie Russ