alabama post- election survey

Key findings from a statewide survey of 550 actual 2012 votersin Alabama conducted November 7-8, 2012.

LORI WEIGELPARTNER • [email protected] 122180

Public Opinion Strategies is pleased to present the key findings of a statewide telephone survey in Alabama.

The survey was completed November 7-8, 2012 among 550 voters who indicated having voted in the 2012 presidential election (which includes an N=50 oversample of African Americans weighted to appropriate levels within the statewide sample). The sample has a margin of error of + 4.18%.

Lori Weigel was the principal researcher on this project. Becky Kramer was the project director with Brian Fraser providing analytical assistance.

Support for Amendment One was so significant, it extends across most regions of the state and with all key demographic and partisan sub-groups.

The campaign and branding effort was successful in boosting awareness of Forever Wild. Given the ballot language, awareness of the program continued to be the best predictor of support.

Similarly, the campaign was able to erase the “sportsmen gap” in previous data and boost support among all key sub-groups.

TV ads were more likely to be recalled than any other single medium of communication.

Rationales in support of Amendment One largely reflect the campaign communications and key messages. The campaign targets also were by far the best ones – women and African Americans decided later about the Amendment and ended up supporting it at levels on par or higher than the rest of the electorate.

Voters who skipped over the measure largely point to the ballot language as being too vague or not knowing enough about the Amendment. Not understanding the Amendment was also frequently cited by No voters as a reason for their vote decision.

72012 Alabama Post Election Survey

Yes, In Favor

Of78%

No, Against

22%

Fully 78% of survey respondents who say they voted on Amendment One indicate supporting it – within margin of error of

actual results.

“I understand the confidentiality of your vote and the privacy of the voting booth, but I want to assure you that this poll is being completed for research purposes only and that all responses given will remain strictly confidential. In order to help

me do the best research possible, would you now please reconsider and tell me how you voted?”

Actual Election ResultsPost-Election Survey Results


The one-in-four who either didn’t recall or say they didn’t vote on the measure are more

likely to be…Did Not Vote/Do Not Recall

(25%)African American Men 54%Smallest Markets 45%Democrat Men 42%Unfamiliar with Forever Wild 42%Conservative Democrat 40%High School or Less 39%Democrats Age 18-49 38%African American Women 37%Heard Nothing @ Amend. 1 35%Democratic women 33%Small Town 33%


Among those who voted, a majority say that they decided in the last few days

before or on Election Day.

“When would you say you made your FINAL decision on which way you were going to vote onAmendment One in the election?”

Election Day In the lastfew days

In the lastfew weeks

A month or more before you voted

23%31%

19%26%

% Voted


Election Day(17%)

In the lastfew days

(23%)

In the lastfew weeks

(14%)

A month or more before you voted

(20%)

71% 72%85% 85%

29% 28%15% 15%

Yes No

While these late deciders are still overwhelmingly supportive, they do not match the support levels of those who

decided earlier in the campaign.


Younger women and African Americans were clearly the right targets for the

campaign. They decided later than most voter sub-groups.Late Deciders

(54%)Unfamiliar with Forever Wild 71%Women Age 18-49 67%Age 18-34 66%African American Women 65%Small market Women 65%Age 35-44 64%Republican Women 64%Women College+ 63%Conservative Republican 62%Moms 62%African American 60%Women 59%


Later in the survey, we provided respondents with the actual ballot

language of Amendment One. Having heard that, 76% of those who recall voting

say they supported the measure.“Now, let me read you Amendment One exactly as it appeared on the ballot…

Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of Alabama of 1901, relating to the Forever Wild Land

Trust, to reauthorize the trust for a 20‐year period.

Having heard more about it, did you vote Yes in favor or no against Amendment One? Again, if you did not vote on it or cannot recall how you voted just say so

and we'll go to the next question.” Series1

76%

24%

Yes No


One can clearly see that the campaign changed the dynamics of this race.

Series1

50% 54%

76%

15% 18%24%

Yes No

24%Definitely

October 2011 2012 Post Elect SurveyMid-October 2012

Amendment One


The survey data underscores that voters of every type did in fact support

Amendment One.


The measure received broad bipartisan support.

Republican(40%)

Independent(28%)

Democrat(31%)

70%77%

86%

30%23%

14%

Yes No

Amendment One Ballot By Party


The measure received broad bipartisan support.

69%80% 75% 79% 82% 87%

31%20% 25% 21% 18% 13%

Yes No

Amendment One Ballot By Ideology/Party


Obama voters were somewhat more likely to support the measure.

Obama(38%)

Romney(61%)

85%72%

15%28%

Yes No

Amendment One Ballot By Presidential Ballot


The Amendment received stronger support among older Alabamans than young

people, which runs counter to the usual trends.

Age 18-34(21%)

Age 35-44(30%)

Age 45-54(16%)

Age 55-64(17%)

Age 65+(14%)

76% 72% 72%81% 86%

24% 28% 28%19% 14%

Yes No

Amendment One Ballot By Age


And so there was fairly equal support levels between parents and those

without children at home.

Dads(21%)

Moms(22%)

Men withoutKids(27%)

Women without Kids(30%)

74% 73% 77% 80%

26% 27% 23% 20%

Yes No

Amendment One Ballot By Parent Status


White(67%)

African American(29%)

WhiteMen

(34%)

WhiteWomen(33%)

African American Men

(13%)

African American Women(16%)

74% 82% 74% 75%84% 81%

26% 18% 26% 25%16% 19%

Yes No

African American support ended up being very strong.

Amendment One Ballot By Ethnicity and Ethnicity/Gender


White African American

54%

37%

10%23%

36% 40%

Yes No Unsure/Refused

We encountered the opposite dynamic in the 2011 test of the

ballot language.2011 Amendment One Data By Ethnicity


Sportsmen(30%)

Non-Sportsmen(70%)

0.78 0.76

0.22 0.24

Yes No

Sportsmen(30%)

Non-Sportsmen(70%)

62%

43%

17% 13%21%

44%

Unsure/Refused

The campaign erased the “sportsmen gap” which was so evident in the initial

data. 2011 Amendment One Data

By Sportsmen2012 Amendment One Ballot

By Sportsmen


Although, those more familiar with Forever Wild were still slightly more likely to vote

Yes.

Heard Of(61%)

Unfamiliar(39%)

Favorable Image(46%)

78% 73%87%

22% 27%13%

Yes No

Amendment One Ballot By Forever Wild Image


There was strong support among both the religious and the secular.

Religious Con-servatives

(35%)

Frequently(58%)

Occasionally(33%)

Never(9%)

70% 74% 81% 74%

30% 26% 19% 26%

Yes No

Amendment One Ballot By Religious Conservatives and Church Attendance


There was solid support in all types of communities.

City(26%)

Suburbs(20%)

Town(22%)

Rural(31%)

79% 73% 79% 75%

21% 27% 21% 25%

Yes No

Amendment One Ballot By Area Type


Voters throughout Alabama say they registered solid support for the measure.

Amendment One Ballot By Media Market and Region

Yes No

Birmingham 78% 22%

Huntsville 69% 31%

Mobile 86% 14%

Montgomery 73% 27%

Rest of Alabama 74% 26%

North 70% 30%

Central 77% 23%

Belt 79% 21%

Gulf 90% 10%

Lower 67% 33%


50% 47%

Read it beforeDid not read it before

49%39%

Yes/Helped meNo/Did not help me

“And did you have an opportunity to read the actual language of Amendment One before you voted, OR did you not have the chance to read the actual language until you were voting?”

“Did the language of Amendment One provide enough information alone to help determine how you would vote, or did it not provide

enough information to help determine how you would vote?”

Half say they read the ballot language in advance of voting, and essentially the same proportion believe it helped determine how

they voted.


No voters were more likely to find the ballot language lacking in explaining the

measure.

Yes Voter(78%)

No Voter(22%)

61%

41%34%

53%

Yes/Helped me No/Did not help me

Language Helped By Amendment One Voters


Number of Mentions

Didn’t understand language 22Wasn’t aware of it 18Too many amendments – too little time 4Didn’t agree 3Don’t hunt 2Didn’t see it 1Just moved here 1

“What are the one or two reasons you chose NOT to vote on Amendment One?”

Respondents who admit skipping Amendment One are most likely to point to the ballot language as the reason they did

not vote on it.


Number of Mentions

We should spend money on other things 20Not the government's place to do this 11Did not understand ballot language 10Takes away $ from other things 7Parks have enough land / $ 7Takings/property rights 5Creates a new tax 3Tied to UN Agenda 21 2“What are the one or two reasons you chose NOT to vote on Amendment One?”

One of the top rationales No voters cite for their vote decision was not understanding

the ballot language of the measure.


Nearly two-in-five voters could correctly volunteer what Amendment One was

about with any prompting at all – a fairly high proportion.

“Do you happen to recall what Amendment One, the first constitutional amendment on the ballot, was about?” – Multiple responses allowed.

32%

6%1%

% Correct

Top Groups:Correct (37%)

Huntsville Market 47%

Hunters 46%

White 44%

College-educated men 44%

Rural voters 41%


There was decidedly higher support among the 44% of voters who recall seeing

significant information about this measure.

“In the weeks before the election, how much did you see, read or hear about Amendment One?”

A Lot/Some(44%)

Not Much/Nothing(55%)

84%71%

16%29%

Yes No

% Seen…

A Lot 16%Some 28%Not Much 26%Nothing At All 29%

Forever Wild Ballot By Amendment One Awareness


Three in ten mention seeing ads on TV, and numerous others cite the specific content of those ads as what they saw

about the measure.

“And what specifically do you recall having seen, read or heard about Amendment One, prior to the election?”


2012 voters also noticed that there was very little opposition.

“I remember seeing Gene Stallings and Pat standing on a field, in what appeared to be

hunting gear, and how we needed to vote for amendment one. I heard things in the local

(talk) radio, and the sports radio opposing to not vote for it due to how the money set aside for Alabama Wild was being stifled off on other

things, so he said to vote against it. All (ads) were advocating for it.”

– 35-44 year old White Man in Madison County

“Everything was for it, and no commercials against it. One was a couple of coaches in the area recommending everyone vote yes. Another one was a couple of moms taking their children after school to run around in the wild. They just kept running those two

(ads) over, and over again.– Suburban Moderate Woman in Jefferson

County


In fact, voters were most likely to recall TV ads of any communication utilized in this

effort.

“More specifically, please tell me whether you saw, heard or received any of the following types of information about Amendment One, regarding the Forever Wild Land Trust.”

TV ads

Radio ads

Newspaper or magazine ads

Mail

Automated phone call to your home

50%

24%

21%

9%

7%

5%

Yes

Campaign materials left at your front door or provided at community events


Voters who got information from ANY source – even talk radio – ended up voting Yes by wide

margins. Amendment One Language By Info Source

Yes NoTV ads 82% 18%Radio ads 79% 21%Paper/Magazine ads 93% 7%Mail 82% 18%News on TV 84% 16%News in paper 90% 10%Talk radio 67% 33%Social media 88% 12%


It is clear that Yes voters support the measure because it is good for Alabama’s

natural lands.

“What are the one or two reasons you voted In Favor/Against Amendment One regarding the Forever Wild Land Trust?”

Number of Mentions

Protect natural habitats and wildlife 71Preserve for future generations 38Hunting and fishing 34Outdoor recreation 33Access to public land 29Preserve natural resources 20Endorsements and advertisements 16A good place to invest 13Keep Alabama beautiful 12


Yes voters mimic back some of the messaging – about kids, no cost and the

places. “Because we've always loved the place where we live, we’ve enjoyed it, and I think future generations should have the

same privilege…I think it's the joy of being in the forest, the parks. Everyone should have the advantage to that if they

want to. We’ve always camped.” -- Senior woman in

Calhoun County“I think it's a good idea to preserve ourselves, our natural heritage…Oh

and it didn't cost me anything. Preserving the natural green space for our children to enjoy. That's it. And the

cost was, well, there was no cost for it.” – Senior man in Madison County

“I just love nature and the beaches.”

– 35-44 year old African American man

in Madison County


Series1

32%

61%

29%

46%

Heard Of Favorable Unfavorable

Awareness of Forever Wild shot up dramatically from last year.

2011 Forever Wild Awareness 2012 Forever Wild Awareness

“Do you have a favorable opinion or an unfavorable opinion of the Alabama Forever Wild Program? If you are unfamiliar with the program, please just tell me that.”


The top sub-groups which are more aware of Forever Wild today,

include… % Increase in

AwarenessHuntsville Market +40%

Women +39%

Rural Voters +34%

City Residents +33%

White Democrats +33%

Independents +32%

Non-sportsmen +31%

Birmingham market +30%African American

women +30%


The proportion of voters who thought Amendment One would increase their

taxes also was significantly lower than in past surveys. % Almost Certain/Very Likely

To Increase

“Now that Amendment One has been approved, is that taxes will increase almost certain to happen, very likely, somewhat likely, or not that likely to happen?”


And 2012 voters clearly saw the measure as providing benefits with few buying into

critics’ central concerns about the amendment. Ranked By Almost Certain/Very Likely

“I am going to read you some things that some people said would happen if voters approved Amendment One regarding Forever Wild. After each one, please tell me how likely you think that is to happen now that the amendment has been

approved.”

Series1 22%

19%

19%

16%

8%

64%

55%

50%

41%

20%

Very Likely Column1

We will protect wildlife and our natural resources for future generations

We will protect sources of clean drinking water

Our quality of life will be maintained

Alabama will protect its economy by conserving natural areas, like beaches, that

attract tourists

It will increase the government land grab of private property in Alabama


Voters who skipped over Amendment One are closer to the views of No

voters in their assumptions about the measure’s outcome. Yes No Skipped

We will protect wildlife and our natural resources for future generations 78% 39% 37%Alabama will protect its economy by conserving natural areas, like beaches, that attract tourists

63% 38% 34%

We will protect sources of clean drinking water 59% 30% 31%

Our quality of life will be maintained 51% 20% 15%

Taxes will increase 19% 53% 40%

It will increase the government land grab of private property in Alabama 13% 36% 12%


The kind of information also affected voters. While we know water tested as the strongest

benefit in previous surveys, the communications focusing on other aspects of the measure are

reflected in supporters’ rationales for voting Yes. Ranked By First Choice

“I'd like to read you just a few of the ways in which funds from the Forever Wild program are used here in Alabama and please tell me which one was most important in your vote decision. The Forever Wild program protects.”

Series1 13%

12%

10%

7%

6%

5%

5%

26%

19%

19%

14%

12%

12%

11%

1%

Places for outdoor recreation and where kids can play

Sources of clean drinking water

State parks

Places to hunt and fish

Places that attract tourists and benefit the economy

Beaches and coastal areas

Water quality of rivers, lakes and streams

Protecting Wildlife/Environment

The effort behind the Forever Wild amendment overcame vague ballot language to achieve strong support across virtually all sub-groups, all regions of the state and all partisan distinctions.

The simultaneous branding effort helped to connect the dots for many voters and generated greater awareness and a favorable impression. Both bear a strong relationship with support for the amendment.

2012 voters clearly received the campaign’s messages. For example, the perception that the measure would increase taxes is significantly lower than on previous surveys, for example.

The data also demonstrates that the campaign was correct in its efforts to communicate with younger women and African Americans as they were far more likely to have decided late. African American women ended up being one of the strongest sub-groups in support of the Amendment – a dramatic turnaround from one year ago.

It is also clear in this uncluttered market that TV still made the biggest impression on voters. Yes voters are most likely to mimic back the key elements highlighted in the TV ads.

Finally, it is worth noting that few buy the arguments of critics about the measure.

Phone: (303) 433-4424 • Fax: (303) 433-4253Web: www.pos.org

LORI WEIGELPARTNER • [email protected]

alabama post- election survey

Documents

election day

presidential election

support of amendment

actual election results75

statewide survey

votersin alabama

support levels

statewide telephone