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COUNTY OF ALAMEDA, CALIFORNIA Alameda County Fiscal Year 2020-21 Budget Briefing to Labor Representatives Susan S. Muranishi, County Administrator Melanie Atendido, Principal Analyst May 6, 2020

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Page 1: Alameda County Fiscal Year 2020-21 20-21 Labor … · Fiscal Year 2020-21 Budget Briefing to Labor Representatives Susan S. Muranishi, County Administrator Melanie Atendido, ... $31.4

COUNTY OF ALAMEDA, CALIFORNIA

Alameda County Fiscal Year 2020-21Budget Briefing to Labor RepresentativesSusan S. Muranishi, County AdministratorMelanie Atendido, Principal Analyst

May 6, 2020

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE2

Overview Economic Updates

County Financing

FY 20-21 Maintenance of Effort (MOE) Budget

FY 20-21 Funding Gap

COVID-19 Impacts

Pending Factors

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE3 COUNTY OF ALAMEDA, CALIFORNIA3

Economic Updates

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE4

Unprecedented Rise in U.S. Unemployment

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE5

Alameda County – Unemployment Rate (March 2020)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

County3.8%

California5.3%

National4.4%

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE6

Local Unemployment Nearly 250 employers throughout the County have submitted Worker

Adjustment Retraining Notification (WARN) notices to report temporary or permanent closures or laid off employees, impacting over 19,000 workers*

Bay Area employers reported over 74,000 layoffs in April

*Includes numbers through April 2020 from the City of Oakland

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE7

Stocks Will Revisit Coronavirus Crash Low

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE8

Major Sales Tax Declines Projected:− Autos/Transportation− Business/Manufactured Goods− Construction/Building− Fuel − Retail Sales− Restaurants/Hotels

Revenue Impacts include:− 1991 Realignment− 2011 Realignment− Prop 172 statewide− Measure A− Unincorporated

Current Year – Potential Revenue Impacts

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE9

Current Year Projections – Areas of Concern Significant revenue impacts from Mid-March – June 2020

Dramatic declines in sales tax-based and other revenues− 1991 & 2011 Realignment− Prop 172 Public Safety − Measure A, Gas Tax/Fuel− Medi-Cal

Increased caseloads and unanticipated COVID-19 costs

Spending controls and reductions may be required for related programs and services

Immediate solutions to be implemented while planning for long-term effects to affected programs

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE10 COUNTY OF ALAMEDA, CALIFORNIA10

Revised Five Year Forecast

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE11

Assumptions Status quo projection on costs− Model does not include costs associated with the County’s COVID-19

emergency response

Model does not include the impact of federal and State emergency relief− Likely to result in increased revenue available to offset a portion of the cost of

the emergency response

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE12

Recession Scenarios

Recessions Modeled as Revenue Events

Moderate Recession Scenario

Severe Recession Scenario

Assumptions for Both Scenarios

Recession begins FY 2019-20

Revenue model reflects projected economic impacts of pandemic

Spending at “Base Case” forecast level

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE13

Five-Year Forecast – Projected Budget Gaps (millions)December 2019 and April 2020

$67.0

$86.8

$112.4

$144.8

$182.1

$93.2

$118.2

$142.9

$169.1

$199.9

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

FY 20-21 FY 21-22 FY 22-23 FY 23-24 FY 24-25

Base Case (Dec 2019) Adjusted Base Case (April 2020)

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE14

Recession Scenarios – Appropriations & Revenues

$2,500

$2,700

$2,900

$3,100

$3,300

$3,500

$3,700

$3,900

$4,100

FY 19 FY 20 FY 21Forecast

FY 22Forecast

FY 23Forecast

FY 24Forecast

FY 25Forecast

Milli

ons

Base Case Appropriations Base Case RevenuesModerate Recession Revenues Severe Recession Revenues

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE15

Prior Year Budget Balancing Strategies($ in millions)

*FY 17/18 Budget Gap excludes the $40 million estimated IHSS cost shift that was restored in VBB as part of new MOE arrangement

$49.7 $37.8 $41.3 $44.7

$34.5 $35.2

$17.4 $27.3

$30.9 $23.8 $31.4 $25.2

$67.1 $65.1 $72.2 $68.5 $65.9

$60.4

FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18* FY 18/19 FY 19/20One-Time Ongoing

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE16 COUNTY OF ALAMEDA, CALIFORNIA16

County Financing

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE17

County Fiscal Dilemma Increasing demand for safety net services during economic

downturns

County revenue raising authority limited by:− Proposition 13 - restricted property tax growth− Proposition 218 - voter approval for tax increases− ERAF* - State shifted property taxes to schools

Progressive loss of control over local spending

Most services are mandated by State/federal government

Mandates have continued to increase; reimbursements delayed

Transfer of responsibility from the State to counties − Realigned programs with inadequate ongoing funding

*Education Revenue Augmentation Fund

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE18

Alameda County ERAF Losses by Year($ in millions)

$30

$129 $130 $135 $140 $147 $158 $170 $187

$206 $220 $236 $263 $273

$297 $320

$335 $326 $320 $322 $330 $347

$367 $400

$428 $456

$487 $520

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

Total since FY 1992-93: $7.7 billion

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE19

Alameda County Funding Gaps since ERAF($ in millions)

$172.3

$100.6

$77.6 $74.2

$48.9

$13.6 $13.3 $5.8 $6.7

$73.9

$155.9

$116.1

$92.0

$78.2

$52.0

$73.6

$177.6

$152.4

$137.9

$88.1 $80.2

$67.1 $65.1 $72.2 $68.5 $65.9

$60.4

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

Total since FY 1993-94: $2.2 billion

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE20

Alameda County Assessment Roll Growth

7.1%

-3%

-1%

1%

3%

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

1964 1971 1978 1985 1992 1999 2006 2013 2020

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE21 COUNTY OF ALAMEDA, CALIFORNIA21

Fiscal Year 2019-2020 Final Budget

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE22

FY 2019-20 Final Budget

All FundsFY 2018-19Approved

FY 2019-20Proposed

FY 2019-20Final

AdjustmentsFY 2019-20

FinalChange from FY 2018-19

Budget $3,415,539,736 $3,375,297,609 $168,218,556 $3,543,516,165 $127,976,429

FTE* 9,761.45 9,786.04 100.96 9,887.00 125.55

General FundFY 2018-19Approved

FY 2019-20Proposed

FY 2019-20Final

AdjustmentsFY 2019-20

FinalChange from FY 2018-19

Budget $2,889,682,765 $3,020,128,152 $12,082,948 $3,032,211,100 $142,528,335

FTE* 7,801.46 7,825.64 105.46 7,931.10 129.64

*Full-time equivalent positions

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE23

FY 2019-20 Budget Balancing

FY 2019-20 Final Budget closed a $60.4M gap

$35.2M in one-time solutions− Use of FMR = $28.8M− One-time revenues = $6.4M

$25.2M in ongoing strategies− Program appropriation reductions = $16.3M− Program revenue increases = $5.0M− Non-program revenue increases = $3.9M

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE24

FY 2019-20 Final Budget Appropriation by Major Object – General Fund ($ in millions)

Intra-Fund Transfers: $-89.8 millionTotal General Fund: $3,032.2 million

Services & Supplies, $1,198.9

(38.4%)

Other Charges, $518.9 (16.6%)

Fixed Assets, $14.5(0.5%)

Other Financing Uses, $174.4

(5.6%)

Salaries & Employee Benefits, $1,215.3 (38.9%)

Community-Based Organization Contracts, $638.7 (21.1%)

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE25

FY 2019-20 Final Budget Appropriation by Program – General Fund($ in millions)

Public Assistance, $863.9 (28.5%)

Public Protection, $767.5 (25.3%)

Health Care Services, $927.5

(30.6%)

Non-Program Activities, $147.8

(4.9%)

Contingency & Reserves, $59.0 (1.9%)

Capital Projects, $8.1 (0.3%)

General Government, $258.5

(8.5%)

Total General Fund: $3,032.2 million

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE26

FY 2019-20 Final Budget – Financing by Source

Aid from Local Govt, $34.0 (1.1%)

Other Revenues, $197.1 (6.5%)

Other Financing Sources $53.5 (1.8%)

Available Fund Balance, $1.1 (0%)

Property Tax Revenues$484.1 (16.0%)

Other Taxes$119.7 (3.9%)

Licenses, Permits & Franchises $9.4 (0.3%)

Fines, Forfeits & Penalties $12.5 (0.4%)

Use of Money & Property

$19.3 (0.6%)Federal Aid, $509.7 (16.8%)

State Aid$1,221.1 (40.3%)

Medi-Cal/Medicare, $168.4 (5.6%)

Charges for Services, $202.3 (6.7%)63%

Total General Fund: $3,032.2 million

of GF budget is State and Federal Aid

($1.9 billion)

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE27

Reliance on Volatile State Revenues

*From the 2020‐2021 Governor’s Proposed Budget; January 2020

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE28

Revenue Impacts Overview

State Sales Tax-Based Revenues: $610MRealignment (1991 & 2011), Prop 172 Public Safety, Unincorporated Area

Personal Income TaxMental Health Services Act (MHSA): $125M

Local RevenuesMeasure A: Alameda Health System (75%) and

County (25%) split revenuesFY 18-19 Remittances: $164M

AHS ($123M); County ($41M)Unincorporated Area Revenues: $19M

Utility Users, Business License, Hotel & LodgingProperty TaxPenalty & Fee WaiversMeasure A1: Affordable Housing *

*Measure A1 is a General Obligation Bond for Affordable Housing approved by voters in 2016 for $580M. The first tranche of bonds issued total $240M.

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE29

10% Revenue Reduction Scenario

State Sales Tax-Based Revenues

$610M*

Local Sales Tax-Based Revenues

$41M**

Total Sales Tax-Based Revenues

$651M

10% revenue loss = $65M

* Limited to Realignment, Prop 172 Public Safety, Unincorporated **County’s 25% share of FY 18-19 Measure A revenue

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE30

FY 2019-20 Final Budget

ERAF (VLF), $227.1 , 28.5%

Interest, $17.4 (2.2%)

Sales & Use Tax,  $23.4 (2.9%)

Property Tax, $484.1 (60.7%)

Other Revenue, 

$46.1 (5.8%)

Use of FMR$28.8 (1.0%)

Program Revenue$2,199.3(72.5%)

Discretionary Revenue$798.2 (26.3%)

Debt Service Revenue

$5.9 (0.2%)

Discretionary Revenue Sources

Discretionary Revenue – Share of Total General Fund ($ in millions)

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE31

FY 2019-20 Final Budget Use of Discretionary Revenue by Program($ in millions)

Total Discretionary Revenue: $798.2 million

General Government, $63.8 (8.0%)

Debt Service, $122.8 (15.4%)

Health Care, $132.7 (16.6%)

Contingency & Reserve, $59.0 (7.4%)

Public Protection, $343.6 (43.0%)

Public Assistance, $69.3 (8.7%)

Capital Projects, $7.0 (0.9%)

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE32

Discretionary Revenue

* Over time, redevelopment agencies’ share of property taxes should be distributed to the other entities

Discretionary revenue is approximately 27% of the General Fund, but 90% is property tax-based

Alameda County receives only 15 cents for every property tax dollar collected in the County

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE33

Community-Based Organization (CBO) ContractsFY 2019-20 Funding ($ in millions)

Program AreaFY 19-20

ContractsGeneral Government $20.4

Health Care Services* $415.6

Health Care – Alameda Health System $81.1

Public Assistance $85.2

Public Protection $36.4

CBO Contracts Total $638.7

Total: 289 CBO Contractors

* excluding Alameda Health System contracts

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE34 COUNTY OF ALAMEDA, CALIFORNIA34

FY 2020-21 MOE Budget

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE35

2020-21 MOE Budget: Best Case Scenario

MOE submissions represent year-over-year baseline changes

MOE does not include COVID-19 impacts− Additional emergency costs − Additional caseload− Revenue reductions

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE36

FY 2020-21 MOE Budget: General Fund(in millions)

Appropriation $3,120.9Revenue $3,048.8Funding Gap $ 72.1

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE37

FY 2020-21 MOE Budget($ in millions)

FY 2019-20FINAL

FY 2020-21MOE

Increase/Decrease % Change

Appropriation $3,032.2 $3,120.9 $88.7 2.9%

Revenue $3,032.2 $3,048.8 $16.6 0.6%

Funding Gap $0 $72.1 $72.1

FTE Positions 7,931.1 7,987.0 55.9* 0.7%

*Majority of the FTE increase is project positions (including 37.0 FTE from Probation pre-trial grant).

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE38

Program Appropriation Revenue Net Cost FTEGeneral Government $273.3 $174.6 $ 98.7 957.0

Public Protection $819.0 $431.2 $387.8 2,779.6Public Assistance $887.3 $813.7 $ 73.6 2,604.8Health Care Services $926.7 $767.2 $159.5 1,643.6

Subtotal Programs $2,906.3 $2,186.7 $719.6 7,985.0

Capital Projects $ 7.5 $ 0.5 $ 7.0 2.0Contingency / Reserve Debt Service / Designations $207.2* $17.5 $189.7 0.0

Non-Program Financing 0 $844.2 ($844.2) 0.0

Subtotal Others $214.7 $862.2 ($647.5) 2.0

TOTAL $3,120.9 $3,048.8 $72.1 7,987.0

FY 2020-21 MOE Budget($ in millions)

NOTE: Totals may vary slightly due to rounding*Debt Service appropriation is $118.5M

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE39

FY 2020-21 MOE BudgetNet Cost Change Non-Program (in millions)

Other Program 2019-20 FINAL Net Cost

2020-21 MOE Net Cost Change %

ChangeCapital $7.0 $7.0 0 0%

Contingency / ReservesDebt Service / Designations $189.3 $189.7 $0.4 0.2%

One-time use of FMR ($28.8) $28.8 100%

Non-Program Financing ($823.2) ($844.2) ($21.0) 2.6%

Subtotal Others ($655.7) ($647.5) $8.2 1.3%

Subtotal Programs $655.7 $719.6 $63.9 9.7%

TOTAL $0 $72.1 $72.1

NOTE: Totals may vary slightly due to rounding

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE40

FY 2020-21 MOE BudgetNet Cost Change by Program with FMR (in millions)

Program NCC Change Prior Year FMR Use

NCC Increase w/ FMR

General Government ($0.4) $17.8 $17.4

Public Protection $40.2 $4.0 $44.1

Public Assistance $4.3 $0.0 $4.3

Health Care Services $19.9 $7.0 $26.9

Subtotal Programs $63.9 $28.8 $92.7

Subtotal Non-Program ($20.6)

TOTAL $72.1

NOTE: Totals may vary slightly due to rounding

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE41

FY 2010-21 Reduction Targets($ in millions)

Absorb NCC Increase w/ FMR and Credit Share of $20.6M Based on

% Share of NCC Increase

General Government $ 17.5Public Protection $ 31.2Public Assistance $ 2.9Health Care $ 20.5Total Programs $ 72.1

Numbersandpercentagesareroundedfordisplaypurposes,butcalculationsarebasedonexactnumbers.

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE42 COUNTY OF ALAMEDA, CALIFORNIA42

COVID-19 IMPACTS

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE43

COVID-19 County Revenue Impacts Census 2020 undercount Lower sales tax-based revenues (Realignment, Prop 172, Measure A) MHSA funding (Income tax-based) Decreased property tax collections and revenues due to declining real

estate value/market Reduced collections (intercept programs suspended) Decreased federal and State allocations Terminated grant funding Other taxes and fees

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE44

COVID-19 County Residents – Human Impacts Financial challenges for service providers

Waived requirements for public benefit programs

Redirected work hours – Activation of Disaster Service Workers CA Government Code §3100

Increased caseload: unemployment, uninsured/Medi-Cal enrollees, CalFresh, General Assistance, demand for physical and behavioral health services

Limited or suspended: access to County facilities and in-person resources/assistance

3,756

9,453

Prior 3 Year Period Average 2020 COVID

CalFresh Applications March 16 – April 08

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE45

COVID-19 Increased Unanticipated Costs Emergency efforts− Shelter for unsheltered − Food distribution− Childcare for essential workers− Transportation− PPE and emergency medical supplies/equipment− Emergency/public safety personnel = labor costs − Administrative and emergency paid sick leave− Reliance on IT and operations infrastructure − Logistical costs to relocate persons experiencing

homelessness to temporary shelters− Janitorial support to ensure sanitization of

public/private spaces

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE46

Other Pending Factors Health Care challenges− Expiration of Medicaid waivers− Alameda Health System financial status

Rising retirement costs Stock market impacts on pensions Ongoing homelessness crisis Infrastructure maintenance & capital needs Increased public safety costs Pending litigation Census 2020 County structural funding gap – one-time funding sources for ongoing uses COVID-19 global pandemic: revenues, caseloads, and cost impacts− Economic downturn

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE51

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE48 COUNTY OF ALAMEDA, CALIFORNIA48

Salary & Employee Benefits

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE49

Salary and Benefits Budget (in millions)

Salaries

$738.0 

Retirement $234.3 *

Health & Dental$155.5 

Workers' Compensation $33.1 $0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

*Note: FY 19-20 retirement decrease is attributable to the retirement of the Pension Obligation Bonds

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE50

FY 2019-20 Budget Salaries & Benefits (in millions)

Salaries & Benefits, $1,215.3 , 39%

Services & Supplies, $1,198.9 , 38%

Other Charges, $518.9 , 17%

Fixed Assets,  $14.5 , 0%

Other Financing Uses, $174.4 , 6%

Intra-Fund Transfers $-89.8MTotal Appropriation: $3,032.2M

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE51

FY 2019-20 Budget Salaries & Benefits (in millions)

Salaries, $738.0 , 61%

Total Benefits, $477.3 , 39%

Total S&EB budget: $1,215.3 

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE52

Salary and Benefits FY 2019-20 General Fund (in millions)

Salaries, $738.0 , 61%

Retirement, $234.3 , 19%

Health & Dental, $155.5 , 13%

Workers' Compensation, $33.1 , 3%

Other Benefits,  $54.5 , 4%

Total S&EB budget: $1,215.3M

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE53

FY 2019-20 Benefits (in millions)

Retirement, $234.3 , 49%

Health & Dental, $155.5 , 33%

Workers' Compensation, $33.1 , 7%

Other Benefits, $54.5 , 11%

Total Benefits $477.3M

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE54

FY 2019-20 Salary, Benefits and FTE % Increase

Retirement, +440%

Health & Dental, +461%

Workers' Comp, +301%

Funded FTEs, 110%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

450%

500%

2001‐02 2003‐04 2005‐06 2007‐08 2009‐10 2011‐12 2013‐14 2015‐16 2017‐18 2019‐20

Salaries, +199%

*Note: FY 19-20 retirement decrease is attributable to the retirement of the Pension Obligation Bonds

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COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR’S OFFICE55

Employee Benefits per Dollar of Salary FY 2001 to FY 2020General Fund

$1.00  $1.00  $1.00  $1.00  $1.00  $1.00 

$0.14  $0.20  $0.24 $0.34  $0.37  $0.33 *$0.09 

$0.11 $0.17 

$0.20  $0.21  $0.22 

$0.03 

$0.06 $0.03 

$0.04 $0.04  $0.05 

$0.07 

$0.07 $0.07 

$0.07 $0.07  $0.08 

$0.00

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

$1.60

$1.80

2000‐01 2004‐05 2009‐10 2014‐15 2018‐19 2019‐20

Salaries Retirement Health & Dental Workers' Compensation Other Benefits

*Note: FY 19-20 retirement decrease is attributable to the retirement of the Pension Obligation Bonds