alan brent & tinus pretorius - department of energy energy... · solar heating systems...
TRANSCRIPT
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Solar Energy Technology Roadmap (SETRM):Solar Energy Technology Roadmap (SETRM):
Workshop Workshop –– 18 June 201218 June 2012
Alan Brent & Tinus Pretorius
� Tel: +27 21 808 4087 / +27 12 420 4605� Fax: +27 21 883 8513 / +27 12 362 5307
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� Fax: +27 21 883 8513 / +27 12 362 5307� Cell: +27 82 468 5110 / +27 82 950 2726� E-mail: [email protected] / [email protected]
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Aims of the SETRMAims of the SETRM
� Formed part of a broader project: Baseline - SETRM – Feasibility -Business Plan.
� Used the National System of Innovation (NSI) framew ork for analysis. Highlighted key strategic R&D focus areas . Focus on active systems.
� Identify the required interventions by various role players to enable such R&D.
� Not to provide insight in terms of where the solar energy sector of South Africa should be heading, but
� where the NSI should place its emphasis to support and expand the emerging industry..
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Intended outcomes of the SETRMIntended outcomes of the SETRM
� South African strengths in solar energy technologie s:• Linking the strengths to government objectives:
– Climate change, energy security, economic growth an d employment.
• Linking the strengths to industry objectives:– Expanding the manufacturing base and capitalising o n export opportunities.
� Direction of R&D capabilities in the country:• SWOT analysis of the NSI.• SWOT analysis of the NSI.• To improve the competitiveness of the country.• Analyse and prioritise technology systems/platforms .
– Over the short term – next 5 years– Over the medium term – next 10 years
• Measurable objectives for the different technology systems/platforms
� Develop the roadmap accordingly.
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Methodology followedMethodology followed
� Data gathering on constraints and opportunities for the technologies:
• Interviews• Material from workshops and other projects• ISES Solar World Congress 2009
� Collect and review publications:• Journal articles• Reports
� Analyse the data to assess the market, industry dev elopment and R&D potential for South Africa.
� Draft the SETRM (Cambridge TRM model):• Sent out for review and critique to a wider stakeho lder audience• A final workshop
� Finalise the SETRM.
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Classification of the active systems of the SETRMClassification of the active systems of the SETRM(power services)(power services)
System service
System market / application
System output
Generic technology platforms
Power
Singular householdsSmall:
< 5 kWConventional without tracking photovoltaic.
Mini off-grid for small communities
Medium:
< 500 kWConventional or thin film, with / without tracking, or concentrated photovoltaic.
Commercial buildings / Agriculture sector
Medium:
< 1 MWConventional or thin film, with / without tracking, or concentrated photovoltaic.
Power< 1 MW
Industry sectorLarge:
> 1 MW
Concentrated or thin film, with tracking photovolta ic.
Concentrated (thermal) power.
Municipalities / commercial clusters
Large:
> 1 MW
Concentrated or thin film, with tracking photovoltai c / parks.
Concentrated (thermal) power.
National gridLarge:
> 10 MW
Concentrated or thin film, with tracking photovoltai c / parks.
Concentrated (thermal) power / parks.
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Classification of the active systems of the SETRMClassification of the active systems of the SETRM(thermal services)(thermal services)
System service
System market / application
System output
Generic technology platforms
Singular households/ communities for water and space heating
Low:
< 80ºCNon-tracking collectors.
Singular households/ communities for cooking
Low:
< 100ºCNon-tracking or manual tracking collectors.
Commercial buildings / agriculture sector for cooling (adsorption chillers)
Low:
60 – 90ºCNon-tracking collectors.
Thermalchillers)Commercial buildings / agriculture sector for cooling (single and double action chillers)
Low:
75 – 115ºCNon-tracking collectors.
Municipalities / commercial clusters / industry sector
Low:
< 70ºCNon-tracking collectors.
Municipalities / commercial clusters / industry sector for desalination by membrane distillation
Low:
90 – 100ºCNon-tracking collectors.
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Classification of the active systems of the SETRMClassification of the active systems of the SETRM(thermal services)(thermal services)
System service
System market / application
System output
Generic technology platforms
Commercial buildings / agriculture sector / industry sector for cooling (adsorption chillers, single and double action)
Medium:
130 – 180ºCConcentrated thermal with tracking, specifically wi th a simple parabolic trough.
Municipalities / commercial clusters /
Thermal
commercial clusters / industry sector for desalination by multi-stage flash (MSF) distillation
Medium:
90 – 120ºCNon-tracking collectors, or concentrated thermal wi th tracking, specifically with simple parabolic trough .
Industry sector for process heat
Medium:
< 250ºCConcentrated thermal with tracking, specifically wi th parabolic trough and linear Fresnel.
Industry sector for process heat
High:
< 400ºCConcentrated thermal with tracking, specifically wi th advanced parabolic trough and linear Fresnel
Industry sector for thermochemistry and fuels
High:
> 750ºC
Concentrated thermal with tracking, specifically wi th a
central receiver.
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Structure of the SETRM documentStructure of the SETRM document
Technology push / advances
Market trends / drivers
Market potential / barriers
8888
Market potential / barriers
Strategic analysis
SETRM
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Structure of the SETRM documentStructure of the SETRM document
Technology push / advances
Market trends / drivers
Market potential / barriers
Power applications• Photovoltaic (PV)
systems• PV manufacturing
research• Concentrated Solar
Power (CSP) systems• CSP manufacturing
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Market potential / barriers
Strategic analysis
SETRM
• CSP manufacturing research
• Solar chimney, other
Thermal applications• Non-tracking applications• Concentrated tracking
applications
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Structure of the SETRM documentStructure of the SETRM document
Technology push / advances
Market trends / drivers
Market potential / barriers
International focus• Renewable Energy (RE)
in general• Power applications
10101010
Market potential / barriers
Strategic analysis
SETRM
• Power applications• Thermal applications• Policy landscape
changes
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Structure of the SETRM documentStructure of the SETRM document
Technology push / advances
Market trends / drivers
Market potential / barriers
South African focus• RE in general• Role of active solar
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Market potential / barriers
Strategic analysis
SETRM
• Role of active solar systems
• Power applications• Thermal applications
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Structure of the SETRM documentStructure of the SETRM document
Technology push / advances
Market trends / drivers
Market potential / barriers
South African R&D focus with the role of government, R&D institutions and industry:• SWOT of the NSI in
12121212
Market potential / barriers
Strategic analysis
SETRM
• SWOT of the NSI in general
• SWOT of power applications
• SWOT of thermal applications
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Structure of the SETRM documentStructure of the SETRM document
Technology push / advances
Market trends / drivers
Market potential / barriers
SETRM• R&D vision• R&D strategies in terms
of funding and priorities based on the market-readiness of technologies
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Market potential / barriers
Strategic analysis
SETRM
readiness of technologies• R&D implementation in
terms of the short term (next five years) and short to medium term (next ten years)
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SWOT analyses of the National System of Innovation (NSI)SWOT analyses of the National System of Innovation (NSI)
� Conducted for the different applications and techno logical systems in the South African NSI.
� Market-readiness analysis of the different technolo gical systems based on current international advances in the tech nological systems.
� The international market trends and drivers.� The South African market opportunities.� The South African market opportunities.
� Potential and barriers that may be addressed throug h R&D.
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Outcomes of the SWOT analysesOutcomes of the SWOT analyses
� R&D requirements of the different technologies.
� Requirements of those technologies that have been d emonstrated, which need to be commercialised in South Africa.
� Requirements of those that are already commercialis ed and can therefore be acquired directly.
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Outcomes of the SWOT analysesOutcomes of the SWOT analyses(photovoltaic power (PV))(photovoltaic power (PV))
Technological system
R&D(primarily DST)
Demonstrated (primarily DoE)
Commercialised(private sector)
Conventional
• R&D focuses on characterisation of semiconductors.
• Development of appropriate education and training
• Optimise optical system technologies for product and manufacturing.
• Expansion of existing system design, simulation and
√√√√
16161616
and training programmes.
• Establish R&D facilities for improved and new generation storage technologies.
simulation and optimisation capabilities, including panel, structure and tracking systems.
Concentrated √√√√
√√√√ Denotes the life cycle phase that characterises the technological system internationally
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Outcomes of the SWOT analysesOutcomes of the SWOT analyses(photovoltaic power)(photovoltaic power)Technological
systemR&D
(primarily DST)Demonstrated (primarily DoE)
Commercialised(private sector)
Thin film
• Expansion of facilities for R&D on low-cost and high-efficiency thin film products.
• Expansion of existing characterisation and √√√√
17171717
characterisation and testing capabilities.
• R&D to optimise manufacturing technologies.
√√√√ Denotes the life cycle phase that characterises the technological system internationally
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Outcomes of the SWOT analysesOutcomes of the SWOT analyses(concentrated solar power (CSP))(concentrated solar power (CSP))Technological
systemR&D
(primarily DST)Demonstrated (primarily DoE)
Commercialised(private sector)
Parabolic
• Expansion of existing system design, simulation and optimisation capabilities, including structure and tracking systems, and dry cooling for the power block.
• Optimise receiver system technologies for √√√√
18181818
Parabolic trough • Development of
appropriate education and training programmes.
• Establish R&D facilities for improved and new generation absorber and storage technologies.
system technologies for products and manufacturing.
√√√√
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Outcomes of the SWOT analysesOutcomes of the SWOT analyses(concentrated solar power)(concentrated solar power)Technological
systemR&D
(primarily DST)Demonstrated (primarily DoE)
Commercialised(private sector)
• Optimise receiver system technologies for products and manufacturing.
• Expansion of existing system design, simulation and optimisation capabilities,
19191919
Central receivers
optimisation capabilities, including structure and heliostat systems, and dry cooling for the power block.
• Development of appropriate education and training programmes.
• Establish R&D facilities for improved and new generation absorber and storage technologies.
√√√√
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Outcomes of the SWOT analysesOutcomes of the SWOT analyses(concentrated solar power)(concentrated solar power)Technological
systemR&D
(primarily DST)Demonstrated (primarily DoE)
Commercialised(private sector)
Linear Fresnel √√√√
20202020
Dish Sterling
√√√√ Denotes the life cycle phase that characterises the technological system internationally
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Outcomes of the SWOT analysesOutcomes of the SWOT analyses(thermal)(thermal)Technological
systemR&D
(primarily DST)Demonstrated (primarily DoE)
Commercialised(private sector)
Non-tracking collectors
• None envisaged.• System optimisation
research projects.√√√√
21212121
√√√√ Denotes the life cycle phase that characterises the technological system internationally
Concentrated with tracking
• System optimisation research projects. √√√√
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Further analyses of technological platforms that ar e in the Further analyses of technological platforms that ar e in the demonstrated and commercialised lifedemonstrated and commercialised life--cycle phasecycle phase� Government intensity
• Requirement for those technological platforms that would stimulate economic growth, coupled with industry development and employment creation: those that would improve energy security and access, and those that would address climate change.
� Industry intensity• Those technological platforms that could expand a l ocal supply chain • Those technological platforms that could expand a l ocal supply chain
and lead to a greater export potential of products, technologies and knowledge.
� R&D intensity• Available capacity and associate resources needed t o support the
further development of the technological platforms.
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Outcomes of the analysis frameworkOutcomes of the analysis frameworkG
over
nmen
t int
ensi
ty
A
B
C
D
E
F
23232323
Gov
ernm
ent i
nten
sity
Industry intensity
GH
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Outcomes of the analysis frameworkOutcomes of the analysis frameworkG
over
nmen
t int
ensi
ty
A
B
D
E
F
Conventional photovoltaic• Government intensity
• Market roll-out• Creates jobs• Addresses energy
security and climate change
• Industry intensity• Fully commercialised• Perceived over -
C
24242424
Gov
ernm
ent i
nten
sity
Industry intensity
GH
• Perceived over -saturation
• Little further expansion envisaged
• R&D intensity• Niche capacity• International entrance
barrier
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Outcomes of the analysis frameworkOutcomes of the analysis frameworkG
over
nmen
t int
ensi
ty
A
B
D
E
F
Concentrated photovoltaic• Government intensity
• No market roll-out• Potential to address
government objectives in the short term
• Industry intensity• Not commercialised• Potential to expand the
industry in the short
C
25252525
Gov
ernm
ent i
nten
sity
Industry intensity
GH
industry in the short term
• R&D intensity• Resource allocation can
develop existing capacity
• Potential to position in international research community
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Outcomes of the analysis frameworkOutcomes of the analysis frameworkG
over
nmen
t int
ensi
ty
A
B
C
D
E
F
Thin film photovoltaic• Government intensity
• No market roll-out• Potential to address
government objectives in the longer term
• Industry intensity• Not commercialised• Potential to expand the
industry in the longer
26262626
Gov
ernm
ent i
nten
sity
Industry intensity
GH
industry in the longer term
• R&D intensity• Resource allocation can
develop existing capacity
• Potential to position in international research community
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Outcomes of the analysis frameworkOutcomes of the analysis frameworkG
over
nmen
t int
ensi
ty
A
B
C
D
E
F
Parabolic trough (P & T)• Government intensity
• Market roll-out• Potential to address
government objectives in the short term
• Industry intensity• Commercialised• Potential to expand the
industry in the short
27272727
Gov
ernm
ent i
nten
sity
Industry intensity
GH
industry in the short term
• R&D intensity• Resource allocation can
develop existing capacity
• Potential to position in international research community
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Outcomes of the analysis frameworkOutcomes of the analysis frameworkG
over
nmen
t int
ensi
ty
A
B
C
D
E
F
Central receiver (P & T)• Government intensity
• Market penetration• Potential to address
government objectives in the longer term
• Industry intensity• Demonstrated• Potential to expand the
industry in the medium
28282828
Gov
ernm
ent i
nten
sity
Industry intensity
GH
industry in the medium term
• R&D intensity• Resource allocation can
develop new capacity• Potential to position in
international research community
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Outcomes of the analysis frameworkOutcomes of the analysis frameworkG
over
nmen
t int
ensi
ty
A
B
C
D
E
F
Non-tracking collectors (T)• Government intensity
• Market penetration• Potential to address
government objectives in the medium term
• Industry intensity• Commercialised• Potential to expand the
industry in the medium
29292929
Gov
ernm
ent i
nten
sity
Industry intensity
GH
industry in the medium term
• R&D intensity• Resource allocation can
develop existing capacity
• Potential to contribute in international research community
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Short term:Short term:Over the next five yearsOver the next five years� PV systems (concentrated and thin film) with stora ge for less than
500 kW power supply, typically for off-grid and com mercial building applications.
� PV systems (concentrated and thin film) without sto rage for more than 1 MW grid-connected power supply.
� CSP systems (parabolic trough and central receiver) without storage for less than 10 MW grid-connected power supply.CSP systems (parabolic trough and central receiver) with storage for � CSP systems (parabolic trough and central receiver) with storage for more than 50 MW grid-connected power supply.
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Short term:Short term:Over the next five yearsOver the next five years� Solar heating systems (non-tracking and simple para bolic trough)
for process heat of less than 150ºC.� Solar heating systems (parabolic trough) for proces s heat of less
than 250ºC.� Solar heating systems (advanced parabolic trough) f or process heat
off less than 400ºC.� Solar heating systems (central receiver) for thermo chemistry heat of
more than 750ºC.more than 750ºC.
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Short to medium term:Short to medium term:over the next ten yearsover the next ten years� Conventional and concentrated PV systems for power applications:
• R&D focus on the characterisation of semiconductors• Development of appropriate education and training p rogrammes• Establishing R&D facilities for improved and new ge neration storage
technologies
� Thin film PV systems for power applications:• Expansion of facilities for R&D on low-cost and hig h-efficiency thin film
productsproducts• Expansion of existing characterisation and testing capabilities• R&D to optimise manufacturing technologies
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Short to medium term:Short to medium term:over the next ten yearsover the next ten years� CSP systems for power and thermal applications:
• Optimise receiver system technologies for products and manufacturing (central receivers); expansion of existing system d esign, simulation and optimisation capabilities, including heliostat stru cture and tracking systems, and dry and hybrid cooling in the power bl ock
• Development of appropriate education and training p rogrammes• Establishing R&D facilities for improved and new ge neration absorber
and storage technologiesand storage technologies
� Thermal applications• System optimisation research projects for specific applications
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Short to medium term:Short to medium term:over the next ten yearsover the next ten years� Linear Fresnel systems, being an international tech nology market
entrant opportunity for South Africa, should also b e prioritised for this period, as a dedicated R&D effort.
• Linear Fresnel systems that supply process heat of less than 400ºC and power of less than 10 MW (without storage) need att ention in the near term.
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Solar Energy Technology Roadmap (SETRM):Solar Energy Technology Roadmap (SETRM):Workshop Workshop –– 18 June 201218 June 2012
Thank YouThank You
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