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ALBANY CREEKHOUSE & TOWNHOUSE MARKET

SEPTEMBER 2018

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BRISBANE

IPSWICH

LOGAN

GOLDCOAST

MORETONBAY

SUNSHINECOAST

REDLAND

BRISBANE: 20 km

GRP: $114.89 BillionLocal Jobs: 835,561Local Businesses: 123,286 Unemployment: 5.3%

MORETON BAY

GRP: $15.12 BillionLocal Jobs: 132,252 Local Businesses: 27,206Unemployment: 6.5%

IPSWICH: 62 km

GRP: $9.23 BillionLocal Jobs: 73,078Local Businesses: 8,933Unemployment: 8.6%

LOGAN: 67km


Gold Coast: 97 km


REDLAND: 55 km


SUNSHINE COAST: 95 km

GRP: $17.71 Billion Local Jobs: 152,364Local Businesses: 37,374Unemployment: 5.0%

NOOSA

SOUTH EAST QLDExp Population by 2041: 5.35 MillionExp. New Dwelling by 2041: 707,000 +Exp. New Jobs by 2041: 839,000 +

Source: Economy ID, South East Queensland Regional Plan 2016, Australian Government Departmant of Employment & The NPR Co.

Albany Creek

HIGH LEVEL LOCATION & OVERVIEW

TRAIN LINEMAJOR ROADS

MORETON BAY LGA

Source: Economy ID, South East Queensland Regional Plan 2017, Australian Government Department of Employment & The NPR Co. Source: Economy ID, South East Queensland Regional Plan 2017, Australian Government Department of Employment & The NPR Co.

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CATCHMENT MAPUnder the forthcoming overarching report headings of ‘Demographic & Economic Drivers’, ‘Townhouse Sales Market', 'House Sales Market', 'Town-house Rental Market' and ‘House Rental Market’, market trends will be examined within the borders of three particular catchment regions, including Albany Creek, the Secondary Catchment and the Moreton Bay LGA.

The map below provides a clear depiction of the two most relevant catchment regions, including that of Albany Creek and the Secondary Catchment. The Albany Creek catchment includes the entire Albany Creek SA2 which is shown below in purple, whilst the Secondary Catchment region includes the amalgamation of two SA2’s, including Bridgeman Downs SA2 and Aspley SA2, which are depicted in red in the map below.

Research Analysis Catchment Map

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics & The NPR Co

CATCHMENT DEFINITION & SIGNIFICANTINFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS

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SIGNIFICANT INFRASTRUCTURESituated on the cusp of Moreton Bay LGA, but still within twenty kilometres from the Brisbane CBD, Albany Creek and its residents will benefit greatly from the vast array of infrastructure development activity that is currently underway or planned for completion in the near future. Whilst infrastructure growth will importantly improve quality of life and liveability at a regional level, it will also provide a considerable boost for the local employment in the form of jobs creation. As a whole, employment in both Moreton Bay LGA and Brisbane LGA is expected to increase by 48% between 2016-17 and 2040-41, with a staggering 468,977 jobs to be added to the local labour force.

Provided below is an overview of ten specific key infrastructure projects that are either currently underway or planned for development within Brisbane and Moreton Bay LGA. Overall, the ten projects below represent a forecast investment of more than $20 Billion in the greater Queensland Economy with over 32,000 jobs expected to be created as a result of their construction and future operation. Whilst the direct impact on Albany Creek as a whole will vary on a project by project basis, as a whole, each project will primarily improve local connectivity, employment opportunities and day-to-day liveability, through the likes of improved transport and connectivity as well as growth in social, recreational and entertainment venues.

Brisbane Live Entertainment PrecinctThe proposed Brisbane Live precinct is a multi-use entertainment and public space anchored by a 17,000-seat world class arena which will showcase international concerts and performances as well as world sporting events. The $450 million arena will also include a 4,000-person capacity rock club and be surrounded by multiplex cinemas, restaurants and bars. The proposed facility also includes a giant screen and amphitheatre catering for around 15,000 people.

In May 2018 the State Government announced $5 Million worth of funding to cover the cost of developing a business case for the proposal. The business case is expected to take 6 months to complete and will assist the Queensland Government in determining sufficient value-for-money can be achieved by developing the Brisbane Live Proposal. Brisbane Metro

The Brisbane Metro concept has evolved to an expanded network of high frequency services and will now run over 21 kilometres. The project features two new high capacity Metro lines, one from Eight Mile Plains busway station to Roma Street station and one from the RBWH station to UQ Lakes busway station. It will also introduce a new fleet of 60 trackless, rubber-tyred Metro vehicles, each with the capacity to carry up to 150 passengers.

Brisbane Metro has an estimated project cost of $944 Million and an expected delivery of $1.8 Billion in value to the Brisbane economy. $300 million of the estimated project cost was recently pledged in the 2018-19 Federal Budget. Following this announcement, Brisbane City Council is proceeding to the next stages of planning and expects construction to start in 2019, with the project to be completed in 2022.

Queen’s Wharf Integrated Resort DevelopmentQueen’s Wharf is a $3.6 Billion development project that will ultimately provide a world-class tourism, leisure and entertainment precinct in the heart of the Brisbane CBD. The revitalised precinct will offer improved facilities for everyday use and public events, showcasing Brisbane to locals, interstate and international visitors.

The benefits of Queen's Wharf to Brisbane include, $272 Million in payments to the State, a guarantee of $880 Million in casino taxes for the first ten years of operations, $1.69 billion annual increase in tourism and $4 billion to the Gross State Product.

Howard Smith Wharves Revitalisation

Greensill Road & Leitchs Road South LinkMoreton Bay Regional Council have announced their intension to deliver a road link between Greensill Road & Leitchs Road South. At present, there is only one entry and exit onto Albany Creek Road from either Greensill Road or Leitchs Road South. The proposed connection will offer a choice for residents to exit out onto Albany Creek Road either via Greensill Road, Ferguson Street or Leitchs Road South. The upgrade of the road to a District Collector status would also allow for the provision of a bus service.

Should this road connection occur, it would be a major boost for future residents of Ausbuild’s latest development project 'Lexington', which is located on Greensill Road. Improved access to Albany Creek road would ultimately reduce travel times to and from the City and ultimately throughout broader South East Queensland. The potential connection is currently open for public consultation with the ultimate alignment yet to be determined.

SIGNIFICANT INFRASTRUCTURE

Cross River RailBrisbane’s Cross River Rail project is a planned 10.2 km rail link which is expected to expand the capacity of the existing rail network and improve travel within the inner city and its surrounds.

The project includes 5.9 kilometres of tunnel between Boggo Road and the RNA Showgrounds, with three additional stations in between at Woolloongabba, Albert Street and Roma Street. Cross River Rail will unlock network capacity to meet forecast passenger demand and accommodate future growth. Once operational, the Cross River Rail will provide the equivalent capacity of a 30-lane highway and will provide faster access to the CBD and South Bank.

Initial construction work has now officially commenced on the $5.4 Billion Cross River Rail project, with the new rail network earmarked to be complete and operational by 2024.

Herston QuarterHerston Quarter will create a global benchmark for health precincts, through the integration of public rehabilitation services and elective surgery, intergenerational living and green spaces in ways that encourage socialisation, innovation, collaboration and interaction.

Construction work on this $1.1 Billion project has now commenced and is expected to take 10 years to complete a total of 12 buildings on-site, supporting 700 jobs annually throughout the development process.

USC Moreton Bay Campus & The Mill PDAConstruction work on the first stage of a full-scale University of the Sunshine Coast (USC) campus was officially launched in July 2018. Stage 1 of the 'USC Moreton Bay' will include a three storey foundation building with more than 16,000m2 of floor space and is scheduled to be open in time for Semester 1, 2020.

The initial student intake in early 2020, which is expected to reach as high as 1,200, will be able to chose between almost 50 different study programs, including business, education and computer science. Spokespeople for USC Moreton Bay have stated that the campus' initial undergraduate, postgraduate, and research programs will be employment focused, ensuring that educational benefits flow quickly through to the wider local community.

Looking further ahead, USC Moreton Bay is planned to expand it's study program from circa 50 programs in 2020, to 65 programs by 2022 and more than 100 programs by 2030. By 2030, the foundation facility will have expanded to 23,000m2 of floor space and will accommodate for up to 10,000 students, hosting $10 million worth of state-of-the-art technology, including simulation facilities and a makerspace.

USC Moreton Bay will be the first stage of development at The Mill PDA, which encompasses a 460 hectare site within Petrie, Kallangur and Lawnton and is connected to wider South East Queensland through convenient access to both Petrie rail station or Kallangur rail station. As well as hosting the USC Moreton Bay campus, The Mill PDA is expected to cater for a range of additional sporting, business and community facilities into the future.

Overall, the development of The Mill PDA is expected to generate up to 6,000 ongoing jobs, 10,000 university placements and $950 million in downstream economic benefits. For Albany Creek residents, The Mill PDA will be located within a 20-minute (12km) drive or a 14-minute train ride from the closest rail station in Carseldine.

Brisbane Airport UpgradesThe Brisbane Airport Corporation currently has more than 100 construction and development projects on site or in planning. Furthermore, BAC has delivered approximately $1 billion worth of infrastructure since 2009 with a further $3.8 billion earmarked for investment in major projects over the next decade.

Australia’s biggest aviation project, the $1.35 billion New Parallel Runway is under construction, with plans for a new Regional Satellite Terminal, new aircraft aprons and taxiways, more car parks, two new hotels & a Brisbane Airport Conference Centre. In fact, outside of the New Parallel Runaway, a further $277 Million worth of infrastructure projects are earmarked to reach completion at Brisbane Airport in 2018 alone.

Brisbane Mega Cruise Ship TerminalStage 1 of the $158 Million Cruise Ship Terminal is planned to be delivered at Luggage Point, at the mouth of the Brisbane River. The development could potentially triple the size of Brisbane’s cruise industry over the next 20 years, growing to support 3,750 jobs, bringing 766,260 international and domestic cruise visitors annually to the City and contributing approximately $1 billion in gross output annually to Queensland’s economy by 2036.

In early May 2018 the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission officially granted approval for the project to go ahead, subject to a number of conditions, all of which have recently been adequately met. Construction work on the new terminal building itself is now expected to commence in early 2019, with the Brisbane Mega Cruise Ship Terminal scheduled to be open to the public during the second quarter of 2020.

The 3.43-hectare site on the edge of the Brisbane River, beneath the Story Bridge, is currently being transformed into a riverside precinct with more than 2.7 hectares of public open space, a 164-room hotel, a 1,500m² exhibition centre and restaurants and cafes. The redevelopment of the area is also expected to connect the New Farm Riverwalk and the Brisbane CBD, whilst revitalising Petrie Bight and respecting the heritage of the site.

Construction work launched in May 2017 and is now well underway and scheduled to be completed by the end of January 2019.

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DEMOGRAPHIC & ECONOMIC DRIVERS

DEMOGRAPHIC & ECONOMIC DRIVERSPOPULATION GROWTH

Albany Creek has grown to become a self-sufficient, reputable suburban location, situated on the border of both the Brisbane Local Government Area and the Moreton Bay Local Government Area.

Covering an approximate physical area of just 1,600km2 and with a history that extends back close to 130 years, Albany Creek has long been regarded as a fully developed suburban location, with extremely limited

residual land supply.

Restrained by a lack of readily developable land supply, the total population in Albany Creek increased by just 8.3% between 2000 and 2017, from 15,143 to 16,407 people. The rate of population growth experienced in Albany Creek has been slower than that achieved in both the Secondary Catchment and the broader Moreton Bay LGA, each of which recorded a total population growth of 18.4% and 58.3% respectively, across the same time frame. The higher population growth percentages achieved in the Secondary Catchment and the Moreton Bay LGA is reflective of greater land supply and the capitalisation on opportunities for greenfield development, rather than reflecting differences in demand.

Looking to the future, these trends in population growth are expected to continue.Between 2017 and 2036, Albany Creek’s total population is predicted to increase by 10.9% from 16,407 to 18,154 people. Across the same time-frame, the Secondary Catchment’s total population is expected to increase by 12.8%, whilst the broader Moreton Bay LGA is earmarked for 38% growth in total population.

Assuming trends in current persons per dwelling were to remain consistent in Albany Creek, the anticipated arrival of 1,747 new residents by 2036 will create the need for an additional 624 residential dwellings to

be built.

As residual land supply continues to dwindle, future residential supply will be developed in ways which increase the local population density, presumably taking the form of small lot detached dwellings or townhouses through opportunistic infill developments. From an investment perspective, the opportunity of buying into an infill project, in a virtually built out suburban location like Albany Creek should be attractive, with the imbalance between opportunities for further residential supply and an expected continued inherent demand for property providing favourable conditions for capital growth.

In terms of growth profile, the local population is predicted to age considerably through to 2036. Those aged in the 'Healthy Retirement' and 'Elderly' life stages are predicted to experience the most rapid growth in population, with very limited growth predicted to occur in the total number of residents aged younger than 65 years (<1%). Overall, Albany Creek’s total number of residents aged over 65 is expected to increase by 72% or 1,691 people between 2016 and 2036

The increased prevalence of older residents will heighten the need for future developments to achieve higher densities, with an expected increase in demand for smaller, lower maintenance properties. Smaller properties typically allow older residents to enhance their daily lifestyle

by lessening the ongoing burden of property maintenance.

Furthermore, although it’s important to acknowledge the forthcoming ageing population shift, the continued prominence of those aged within the ‘Family Formation’ and 'Education' stages of life, should not be overlooked. Combined, these two cohorts are expected to accommodate 56% of Albany Creek’s total population in 2036. Given that those aged within the Family Formation stage includes the bulk of the regions labour force, whilst those aged in the Education stage are the inspiration for most household expenditures, the sustained prevalence of these two age groups will play an integral role in maintaining strength and resilience in the local economy.

Albany Creek: Recorded & Projected Population Growth

Projected Change in Population Profile by Age Group & Catchment

Source: QLD Government Statistician's Office

1,264

1,747

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Recorded Population Growth 2000 - 2017 Projected Population Growth: 2017 - 2036

Tota

l Pop

ulat

ion


4,601 4,563 4,644 4,659 4,605

1,808 1,793 1,804 1,818 1,795

5,600 5,562 5,630 5,634 5,595

2,006 2,374 2,318 2,204 2,115

1,794 2,069 2,496 2,744 2,819560

587753 1,012 1,225

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Tota

l Pop

ulat

ion

Education 0 - 19 Frugal Freedom 20 - 29 Family Formation 30 - 54

Getting Ahead 55 - 64 Healthy Retirement 65 - 79 Elderley 80 +


28% 25% 28% 25% 24% 26%

11%11%

13%10% 10%

11%

34%33%

34%

31% 28%31%

12%12%

11%

12%12%

11%

11%13%

12%

16%16%

14%

3% 6% 2%7% 9% 7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Albany CreekSA2

SecondaryCatchment

Moreton BayLGA

Albany CreekSA2

SecondaryCatchment

Moreton BayLGA

2016 2036

Tota

l Pop

ulat

ion

Education 0 - 19 Frugal Freedom 20 - 29 Family Formation 30 - 54

Getting Ahead 55 - 64 Healthy Retirement 65 - 79 Elderley 80 +

Albany Creek: Population Projections by Age Group

Photo by: Morgan Sessions

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DEMOGRAPHIC & ECONOMIC DRIVERSDWELLING STRUCTURE & HOUSING TENUREHouses are clearly the most dominant type structure throughout Albany Creek, accounting for 91% of the suburbs 5,159 occupied private dwellings. Comparatively, townhouses currently makeup just 7% of the local property market, whilst apartments make up the remaining 2%.

Concentrating on houses alone, Albany Creek hosts a healthy share of owner occupiers, with 86% of its Houses occupied by those who own

outright or own with a mortgage.

This level of home ownership mirrors that of the Secondary Catchment region (86%), but is higher than the broader trend observed across the wider Moreton Bay LGA (74%).

Areas like Albany Creek that host above average levels of owner occupiers often exhibit stronger community networks and improved streetscape aesthetics, with the ‘pride of place’ enhanced by the high portion of those who have a sizeable financial and emotional investment in the region. High levels of home ownership also support healthier economies through

the accumulation of equity that is embedded in local property.

Despite their differing financial positions and personal circumstances, when choosing somewhere to live, both buyers and tenants are both driven by a common motive to live somewhere that offers a safe, convenient and well kept environment. The high portion of owner occupiers in Albany Creek holds the suburb in good stead to attract healthy interest from future prospective rental tenants or buyers.

Albany Creek Dwelling Structure

Source: ABS

Housing Tenure by Dwelling Structure (%) & Catchment


91%

7% 2%

Houses Townhouses Apartments

34%47%

74%

44%33%

59%

29%18%

24%

52%15%

3%

42%

17%

44%

11%11%

14%

38%

23%14%

51%41%

26%

70%65%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Hou

ses

Tow

nhou

ses

Apa

rtmen

ts

Hou

ses

Tow

nhou

ses

Apa

rtmen

ts

Hou

ses

Tow

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ses

Apa

rtmen

ts

Albany Creek SA2 Secondary Catchment Moreton Bay LGA

% S

hare

of T

otal

Dw

ellin

gs

Owned Outright Owned With A Mortgage Rented

INDUSTRY & OCCUPATION OF EMPLOYMENTThe local economy in Albany Creek is well balance, with the suburbs top five industries of employment including a healthy mix between white and blue collar industries. Health Care & Social Assistance and Retail based employees lead the local economy, accounting for a respectable 13% and 11% share of the local workforce. The Public Administration (9%), Education & Training (9%) and Construction (8%) industries round out the top five industries of employment for Albany Creek.

The well balanced mix between low skilled, highly trained, white and blue collar industries that Albany Creek clearly possesses provides a level of protection against adverse shifts in the broader economy. With no potentially vulnerable ties to any one particular industry, Albany Creek

hosts a high degree of both economic and social resilience.

Moreover, Professionals are the most common occupation of employment in Albany Creek, making 22% of the local workforce. Rounding out the top three occupations of employment are Clerical & Administrative workers (19%) and Technicians and Trades (14%). Overall, approximately 49% of the workforce in Albany Creek is employed in a Professional, Managerial or Technicians & Trades role. These are occupations that generally demand higher skills sets and are typically rewarded with higher incomes.

The combination of both a diverse range of key industries of employment, as well as a sizeable portion of highly skilled employees, portrays a local economy that hosts presumably well paid employees and a level of

resilience against unfavourable changes in the broader economy.

Albany Creek: Top Five Industries of Employment

Source: ABS

8%

9%

9%

11%

13%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

Construction

Education & Training

Public Admin

Retail

Health Care & Social Assistance

Share of Total Workforce

UNEMPLOYMENT RATESSubstantiating the strengths that exist in the local economy, unemployment rates in Albany Creek have been impressively low for some time. Unemployment rates in Albany Creek have outperformed the Secondary Catchment, Moreton Bay LGA and Brisbane LGA each quarter on record, which dates back to December 2010.

DEMOGRAPHIC & ECONOMIC DRIVERS

HOUSEHOLD AFFORDABILITYHousing affordability is a popular topic of discussion and is a primary, common concern for property investors, owner occupiers and the broader economy as a whole. By nature, through a fundamental need for accommodation, housing costs take priority over other weekly expenses. With the success and growth of the economy dependent on household expenditure of disposable income, the current state of any particular property market in terms of affordability, has a considerable flow-on effect across the broader economy.

Once the cost of servicing weekly mortgage or rental repayments reaches 30% or more of weekly household income, housing costs are deemed unaffordable. When this happens, the economy can struggle through a reduction in expenditure on goods and services that generate and maintain employment. Likewise, the potential for growth in property values and rental rates becomes restrained as more prospective buyers or tenants become unable to meet the associated financial requirements.

Conversely, in markets where housing costs command less than 30% of the weekly household income, the broader economy benefits from increased disposable income being spent on goods and services from local businesses. It also provides greater upside potential for price growth.

The two accompanying charts depict the total share of median weekly household incomes that would be spent on weekly mortgage or rental repayments for either a house or townhouse in each of the three catchment regions.

Having discussed the potential flow-on effect of housing affordability on the broader economy, it is important to note that not only Albany Creek, but the Secondary Catchment and the broader Moreton Bay LGA hosts an affordable mortgage and rental market for both houses and townhouses.

In Albany Creek at present, repayments on a median priced house is estimated to command a 21.5% share of the median weekly household income, whilst mortgage payments on a median priced townhouse is estimated to command a 15.5% share of typical weekly household incomes. Meanwhile, in the rental market, a three bedroom house is commanding 23.5% of rental household incomes, whilst rental payments on a three bedroom townhouse are taking up just 18.5% of typical rental household incomes.

Overall, Albany Creek is shown to be a more affordable market for owner occupiers in comparison the Secondary Catchment and is also a more affordable rental market than either the Secondary Catchment or the Moreton Bay LGA. With housing costs sitting comfortably below the 30% threshold across the board, there is likely to be reasonable room for both sale price and rental price growth in Albany Creek before in the short to medium term future.

UNEMPLOYMENT RATESLong Term Unemployment Rate Trends

Source: ABS

Housing Share of Income: Buyers


0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Dec

-10

Mar

-11

Jun-

11Se

p-11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

Jun-

12Se

p-12

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13Se

p-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun-

14Se

p-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun-

15Se

p-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16Se

p-16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17Se

p-17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Une

mpl

oym

ent

Rat

e

Albany Creek SA2 Secondary Catchment Moreton Bay LGA Brisbane LGA

21.5%

15.5%

23.9%

18.8%19.3%

14.4%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

House Townhouse

Hous

ing

Shar

e of

Inco

me

Albany Creek SA2 Secondary Catchment

Moreton Bay LGA Afforadbility Threshold

Housing Share of Income: Renters


23.5%

18.5%

23.8% 23.5%26.5% 25.4%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

House Townhouse

Hous

ing

Shar

e of

Inco

me

Albany Creek SA2 Secondary Catchment

Moreton Bay LGA Afforadbility Threshold

Overall, Albany Creek’s long term average unemployment rate is just 2.3% and is clearly superior that of the Secondary Catchment (3.3%), the

broader Moreton Bay LGA (5.7%) and Brisbane LGA (5.0%).

The healthy, long term average unemployment rates of both Albany Creek and the Secondary Catchment region are made all the more remarkable when you consider that most economists commonly refer to a bench mark unemployment rate of 5% as being reflective of a healthy market with ‘full employment’. Again, this reiterates the healthy economic base discussed above, with a broad range of key industries of employment catering to a diverse mix of employees and skill-sets.

As at the most recent recording period (March 2017), Albany Creek’s unemployment rate remained strong and slightly below the long term average at 2.1%, whilst unemployment rates whilst unemployment rates reached 3.3% in the Secondary Catchment and 5.5% in both the Moreton Bay LGA and the Brisbane LGA.

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TOWNHOUSE SALES MARKET

TOWNHOUSE SALES MARKETHISTORICAL TOWNHOUSE SALES SUMMARY

TOWNHOUSE BUYER ORIGIN SUMMARYThe areas in which buyers are originating from provides a sound guide as to the presumed mix between owner occupiers and investors in any particular property market. The accompanying chart provides a summary of buyer origins for all townhouse sales in Albany Creek, the Secondary Catchment and Moreton Bay LGA since the start of 2000.

As a rule of thumb, buyers from within the local area are presumed to be owner occupiers, whilst those from outside of the local area (particularly interstate and international buyers), are presumed to be investors. It should be noted that for the purposes of the following analysis, the only buyers classified as being from within the local area are those that had originated from within the local postcode for Albany Creek and the Secondary Catchment region, or from within the Local Government Area (LGA) for Moreton Bay LGA.

Albany Creek’s townhouse market has long remained a predominantly owner occupier driven market, with 63% of sales since 2000 originating from buyers within the local 4305 postcode. The portion of owner occupiers in the Albany Creek market is comfortably higher than that of the Secondary Catchment, where a lesser 56% of sales have come via

buyers within the local area.

Noticeably there has been very few townhouses sold in Albany Creek to buyers outside of Queensland, whilst in the Secondary Catchment, close to one-in-four sales have come via Interstate and/or International buyers. However, looking at 2018 sales alone it is clear that the owner occupier prevalence has increased more recently in both catchment areas. Thus far in 2018, Interstate or International buyers have accounted for just 9% of townhouse sales in the Secondary Catchment and 0% of sales in Albany Creek.

The owner occupier dominance present in the Albany Creek townhouse market should be viewed as a positive for future residents or future investors alike. Prospective buyers should take confidence in the fact that by default, local residents are likely to have deeply rooted social networks and will presumably

The accompanying chart provides a breakdown of annual townhouse sales volumes and median townhouse price in Albany Creek between 2000 and 2018 thus far. It’s important to note that at the time of writing, 2018 sales data remains restricted to transactions recorded within the first five months of the year, due to an approximate three-month lag in the database.

Between 2000 and 2017, Albany Creek’s median townhouse price increased by an impressive 253%, from $139,000 to $489,975. Broken down annually, the median townhouse price in Albany Creek achieved a

quite remarkable average annual growth rate of 7.7%.

Compared to the Secondary Catchment, Moreton Bay LGA or even Brisbane LGA, Albany Creek’s median townhouse price increased at a much faster average annual growth rate between 2000 and 2017. Across this time frame the average annual median townhouse price growth rate was 5.5% in the Secondary Catchment, 5.6% in Moreton Bay LGA and 5.0% in Brisbane LGA.

With regards to market depth, the townhouse market in Albany Creek remains quite small, particularly when compared with the traditional house market. On average there were 29 townhouses sold per annum in Albany Creek between 2000 and 2017, compared with an average of 211 house sales per annum.

The median townhouse price in Albany Creek has traditionally been driven by resales of established, villa style, dated properties. In fact, since the start of 2000, approximately 56% of all townhouses sold in Albany Creek have come via resales of established stock. In more recent times, there has been an increased prevalence of new townhouse infill development projects, which played a key role in Albany Creek achieving a historic peak median townhouse price in 2017. Furthermore, whilst Albany Creek’s median townhouse price sits at $470,500 thus far in 2018, new, quality townhouse product in the local market is known to have typically sold for between $480,000 and $530,000 in the early parts of this year.

Albany Creek: Townhouse Sales Summary

Average Annual Median Price Growth Rate: 2000 - 2017

Source: PriceFinder & The NPR Co.

$0

$70,000

$140,000

$210,000

$280,000

$350,000

$420,000

$490,000

$560,000

0

10

20

30

40

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80

2000

2001

2002

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2015

2016

2017

2018

*

Med

ian

Tow

nhou

se P

rice

Tota

l Tow

nhou

se S

ales

Total House Sales Median House Price


4.95%5.46% 5.64%

7.69%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

Brisbane LGA SecondaryCatchment

Moreton Bay LGA Albany Creek

Aver

age

Annu

al G

row

th R

ate


63%56%

70%

19%

19%

13%

18%23%

17%

2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Albany Creek Secondary Catchment Moreton Bay LGA

Mar

ket S

hare

of A

ll To

wnh

ouse

Sal

es

Within Local Area Rest of QLD Interstate International

All Townhouse Sales Since 2000: Buyer Origin Summary by Catchment

*2018 data is limited to sales recorded within approximately the first 5 months of the year.

14 15

TOWNHOUSE SALES MARKET

TOWNHOUSE RESALES ANALYSISThe townhouse resales analysis data has been derived from all resales recorded within Albany Creek since the start of 2000, with a minimum holding period of one year. The two accompanying charts convey an undeniably strong resales market throughout recent history.

As to be expected, median capital gains have varied depending on holding period, with properties held longer term typically achieving greater capital gains.

Overall townhouses resold in Albany Creek since the start of 2000 have typically recorded median capital gains of between $28,000 and $215,000 based on short and long term holding periods (as seen in the chart

attached).

It is important to note that these capital gains are the median result of each individual holding period range. Across all townhouse resales in Albany Creek since 2000 as a whole, owners have most commonly attained capital gains of between $27,375 and $125,550, whilst properties have most typically been held for a period of 2.5 to 7.6 years.

Furthermore, capital gains within Albany Creek’s townhouse market have far outweighed capital losses in each holding period.

Overall, 177 of the 196 resales recorded since 2000 registered a capital gain. Evidently, Albany Creek’s townhouse market has historically provided a sound return on investment for owners, particularly rewarding

those who have held longer term.

Townhouse Resales: Median Capital Gain by Holding Period

Positive & Negative Townhouse Resales by Holding Period


$28,

000 $7

5,00

0

$64,

500

$174

,000

$182

,000

$215

,050

$215

,000

$0

$25,000

$50,000

$75,000

$100,000

$125,000

$150,000

$175,000

$200,000

$225,000

$250,000

1 - 2.49Years

2.5 - 4.99Years

5 - 7.49Years

7.5 - 9.99Years

10 - 12.49Years

12.5 - 14.99Years

15 + Years

Med

ian

Capi

tal G

ain

Holding Period (Years)


19%12%

7%

81%88%

93%100% 100% 100% 100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 - 2.49Years

2.5 - 4.99Years

5 - 7.49Years

7.5 - 9.99Years

10 - 12.49Years

12.5 - 14.99Years

15 + Years

Shar

e of

Tot

al T

ownh

ouse

Res

ales


Negative Resales Positive Resales

TOWNHOUSE BUYER ORIGIN SUMMARYtake greater pride in the day-to-day maintenance of their properties and overall streetscape aesthetics. Likewise, the comparative lack of interstate investors will provide a higher level of resilience against unfavourable shifts in market conditions elsewhere in the country, during which investment properties can often be the first assets to be divested. HOUSE SALES

MARKET

16 17

HOUSE SALES MARKETHISTORICAL HOUSE SALES SUMMARY

HOUSE BUYER ORIGIN SUMMARYThe accompanying chart provides a breakdown of buyer origins for all house sales in Albany Creek, the Secondary Catchment and Moreton Bay LGA since the start of 2000. As mentioned previously, buyers from within the local area are assumed to be owner occupiers, whilst properties sold to residents from outside of the local area (particularly interstate and international), are assumed to be investment sales. Again, it should be noted that the only buyers classified as being from within the local area are those that had originated from within the local postcode for Albany Creek and the Secondary Catchment region, or from within the local LGA for Moreton Bay LGA.

As was the case in the townhouse market, Albany Creek’s house market has also been dominated by local owner occupiers, with 83% of all houses sold since 2000 being purchased by residents from within the local area. Albany Creek has attracted a slightly higher share of owner occupiers then either the Secondary Catchment or the broader Moreton Bay LGA, where local buyers have accounted for significant but lesser shares of the market at 81% and 80% respectively.

Interstate investors have been an uncommon purchaser type in Albany Creek or the Secondary Catchment, accounting for just 3% of sales in each catchment. The level of interstate investment in the house market of both Albany Creek and the Secondary Catchment has been noticeably lower than the trend observed in the broader Moreton Bay LGA, where close to one-in-ten (9%) houses have been sold to interstate buyers since the start of 2000. Meanwhile, across the board, international based investors have been virtually non-existent, accounting for less than 1% of sales in all three catchment regions.

The sentiment shared previously in regards to the positive flow-on effect that owner occupiers can have on the local townhouse market is equally applicable

The accompanying chart provides a breakdown of total annual house sales and the annual median house price in Albany Creek between 2000 and 2018 thus far. It’s important to remember that at the time of writing, 2018 sales data is limited to sales recorded within the first five months of the year, due to an approximate three-month lag in the database.

Between 2000 and 2017 Albany Creek’s median house price increased by a remarkable 263% from just $158,500 to $575,000. Price growth in Albany Creek’s house market has slightly outpaced the townhouse market, with the median house price increasing at an average annual growth rate of 7.9% between 2000 and 2017, whilst the median townhouse price was mentioned earlier as achieving an average annual growth rate of 7.7%.

Furthermore, as touched upon in the demographic section of this report, Albany Creek’s house market is much larger than the townhouse market and consequently, there are considerably higher volumes of house sales recorded each year in comparison to townhouse sales. Overall, an average of 211 houses has been sold each year in Albany Creek since the start of 2000.

However, as influenced by the previously discussed established nature of Albany Creek, with extremely limited residual land supply, the house market continues to be led by resales of well-established homes. Ausbuild’s boutique release of sixteen lots at Parkside Estate in early 2015 and the more recent launch of Lexington Estate (39 Lots) have been the only two notable land development projects delivered in Albany Creek during the last ten years.

Accordingly, the median house price of $580,000 that has been recorded thus far in 2018 within Albany Creek sits well below the current trend in asking prices for new house and land packages being developed in projects located in the surrounding area. A recent examination of all new house and land packages listed for sale in Bridgeman Downs and Albany Creek combined revealed a typically asking price range of anywhere between $612,555 and $777,000. As expected, this price range sits comfortably above Albany Creek’s 2018 median house price of $580,000, which continues to be fueled by resales of established homes.

Albany Creek: Historical House Sales Summary

Average Annual Median Price Growth Rate: 2000 - 2017


$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

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0

35

70

105

140

175

210

245

280

315

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385

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455

2000

2001

2002

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2004

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2008

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2010

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2012

2013

2014

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2016

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2018

*

Med

ian

Hous

e Pr

ice

Tota

l Hou

se S

ales

Total House Sales Median House Price

83% 81% 80%

13% 16%10%

3% 3%9%

0% 0% 0%

0%

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20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

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Albany Creek Secondary Catchment Moreton Bay LGA

Mar

ket S

hare

of A

ll Ho

use

Sale

s

Within Local Area Rest of QLD Interstate International


All House Sales Since 2000: Buyer Origin Summary by Catchment

7.7% 7.9% 7.9%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

Secondary Catchment Albany Creek Moreton Bay LGA

Aver

age

Annu

al M

edia

n Ho

use

Pric

e G

row

th


*2018 data is limited to sales recorded within approximately the first 5 months of the year.

HOUSE SALES MARKETHOUSE BUYER ORIGIN SUMMARYto the local house market. Prospective owner occupiers and investors considering a purchase in Albany Creek should take confidence from the fact that local residents are likely to be deeply physically and emotionally invested in the day-to-day happenings and generally upkeep of properties throughout Albany Creek. Property markets that are dominated by owner occupiers are typically characterised by well-kept streetscapes and high levels of community interaction. They are also often less vulnerable to the negative flow-on effect of down turns in interstate property markets, with the lack of interstate investors reducing the potential for local investment properties being sold in a knee jerk reaction.

HOUSE RESALES ANALYSISThe following house resales analysis data has been derived from all resales recorded within Albany Creek since the start of 2000, with a minimum holding period of one year. The two accompanying charts depict a local resales market that has typically provided generous returns on investment.

The first chart demonstrates how median capital gains have varied depending on holding period. As is typically the case, properties held longer term have generally acquired greater capital gains than those held short term. Overall houses resold in Albany Creek since 2000 have recorded median capital gains of between $56,000 and $336,000 based on short and long term holding periods.

It is important to note that these capital gains are the median result of each individual holding period range. Looking at all house resales in Albany Creek since 2000 as a whole, owners have most commonly attained capital gains of somewhere between $62,250 and $190,000, whilst properties have conventionally been held for a period of 2.7 to 8.1 years.

Moreover, negative resales results have been quite rare in the Albany Creek house market. Overall, 1,563 of the 1,625 houses resold in Albany Creek since the start of 2000 have resulted in a capital gain. More recently, the figures are even more impressive, with 59 of the 60 resales recorded thus far since the start of 2018 returning a positive capital gain.

As shown in the second chart below, an increase in holding period has generally resulted in a reduction of the possibility of attaining a capital loss, with not a single negative resale achieved over a holding period of 12.5 years or more.

House Resales: Median Capital Gain by Holding Period

Positive & Negative House Resales by Holding Period


$56,

000

$104

,500

$129

,500

$175

,000

$215

,500 $3

01,5

00

$336

,000

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

1 - 2.49Years

2.5 - 4.99Years

5 - 7.49Years

7.5 - 9.99Years

10 - 12.49Years

12.5 - 14.99Years

15 + Years

Med

ian

Capi

tal G

ain



9%4% 2% 1% 1%

91%96% 98% 99% 99% 100% 100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

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80%

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100%

1 - 2.49Years

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15 + Years

Shar

e of

Tot

al H

ouse

Res

ales


Negative Resales Positive Resales

18 19

TOWNHOUSE RENTALMARKET

TOWNHOUSE RENTAL MARKETHISTORICAL TOWNHOUSE RENTAL SUMMARY

The lack of investment sales and the small size of the local townhouse market has resulted in an even smaller pool of rental townhouses in Albany Creek. Overall since the start of 2010, there has been a total of just 311 bonds lodged for townhouse rental properties in Albany Creek, at an average of just 9 bonds per quarter.

Three bedroom layouts have been most common for rental townhouse properties in Albany Creek, accounting for 81% of all new bonds lodged

since the start of 2010.

The accompanying chart provides a summary of the median and upper quartile price growth achieved in the three bedroom townhouse rental market over the past five years, between the second quarter of 2013 and the second quarter of 2017. The upper quartile weekly rental rate is typically believed to be reflective of new, favourably located product in the market which naturally attains a premium over broader market trends which is more closely linked to the median weekly rental rate.

Between the second quarter of 2013 and the second quarter of 2018, median weekly rental rates for three bedroom townhouses in Albany Creek increased by 26% from $365 to $460 per week. Across the same time frame, rents for higher quality, favourably located three bedroom townhouses increased by an even greater 31%, from $370 per week to

$485 per week.

MEDIUM DENSITY VACANCY RATEAlbany Creek’s medium density rental market has continued to be well received by prospective tenants. Throughout the second quarter of 2018, vacant townhouse properties took an average of 30 days to bet let in the local 4035 postcode. The average time to let a townhouse in Albany Creek's host postcode has been much faster than the Secondary Catchment region, where medium density based properties have took an average of 42 days to let in during the second quarter of 2018. The NPR Co. believes that any rental market with an average time to let of one month (30 days) is generally well balanced in terms of market supply and demand.

Suggestions of a well balanced market is further supported by the vacancy rates that have recently been achieved within the local postcode 4035 postcode.

During the second quarter of 2018 the vacancy rate for all medium density based rental properties within the 4035 postcode was just 2.6%.

At a current rental vacancy of 2.6% the medium density market in Albany Creek's local postcode is positioned at the bottom end of the 'healthy' industry benchmark vacancy rate range of between 2.5% and 3.5%. Rental markets with a vacancy rate of between 2.5% and 3.5% are commonly regarded as being in a favourable position and reflect markets where both supply and demand are well balanced.

Overall, the information presented above with regards to Albany Creek’s townhouse rental market is undoubtedly positive. Weekly rental rates have recorded strong growth over the past five years, whilst vacancy rates and new levels of supply have continued to remain low. Working in combination, these factors have also played a key role in the healthy time taken to let vacancy townhouses throughout Albany Creek. Low vacancy rates and the healthy time it is taking to let townhouse properties provides reasonable potential for continued rental price growth in the short term future.

Albany Creek Townhouse Rents: Market Share by Layout

Albany Creek Three Bedroom Townhouses Rents:Median & Upper Quartile Price Growth

Source: RTA & The NPR Co.

16%

81%

2%

2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 4 Bedroom

2.6%4035 Postcode Medium Density Vacancy Rate: QTR 2 2018

$365 $370

$460$485

$0

$100

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Median Upper Quartile

Wee

kly

Rent

al R

ate

Q2: 2013 Q2: 2018


20 21

HOUSE RENTALMARKET

HOUSE RENTAL MARKETHISTORICAL HOUSE RENTAL SUMMARY

HOUSE VACANCY RATE

Despite the lack of modern housing, the house rental market continues to be well supported by prospective tenants. Houses listed for rent in Albany Creek are shown to have taken slightly less time to be tenanted to those listed within either the Secondary Catchment or the Moreton Bay LGA. Throughout the second quarter of 2018, a house listed for rent in Albany Creek took an average of 26 days to let, compared to 29 days in the Secondary Catchment and 27 days in Moreton Bay LGA as a whole. With houses taking less than a month to be let throughout the region as a whole, Albany Creek is immersed within a well balanced market in terms of supply and demand.

Furthermore, as was the case with the townhouse market, vacancy rates for the house rental market in Albany Creek's host postcode of 4035 have also remained healthy in recent times.

During the second quarter of 2018 the vacancy rate for all house rental properties within the 4035 postcode was a healthy 3.5%.

As they currently stand, house vacancy rates in Albany Creek are categorically regarded as being healthy, remaining right on the cusp of healthy industry benchmark range of 2.5% to 3.5%.

Clearly, the house rental market in Albany Creek has performed soundly in recent history, with vacancy rates remaining healthy and with the average time taken to let tracking similar to that of both the Secondary Catchment and the Moreton Bay LGA. The lack of sizeable, developable land parcels throughout Albany Creek is likely to continue to see stable vacancy rates and stable rental price growth in the longer term. That being said, new dwellings delivered within boutique sized developments are likely to achieve a significant premium in rental rates, with Albany Creek's median weekly rental rates continuing to be restrained by dating house product.

Albany Creek Three & Four Bedroom Houses: Median & Upper Quartile Rental Price Growth


$360 $378 $400

$473$445 $468

$523 $548

$0

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$300

$400

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$600

Median Upper Quartile Median Upper Quartile

3 Bedroom 4 Bedroom

Wee

kly

Rent

al R

ate

Q1: 2010 Q2: 2018

3.5%4035 Postcode House Vacancy Rate: QTR 2 2018

The accompanying chart provides a summary of the median and upper quartile price growth achieved in the three and four bedroom house rental market withinAlbany Creek, between the first quarter of 2010 and the second quarter of 2018. As mentioned previously, the upper quartile weekly rental rate is typically reflective of new, well located housing product which logically attracts a premium over broader market trends, which are more closely linked to the median weekly rental rate.

However, as mentioned in previous sections of this report, there continues to be a definite lack of modern housing product available for rent in Albany Creek, with very limited development activity occurring over the past ten years. Accordingly, in this case, the upper quartile rental rate is more likely to reflect the weekly rental prices achieved in high quality established houses, with the expectation that new housing product could very well achieve a premium over current upper quartile price trends.

Between the first quarter of 2010 and the second quarter of 2018, median weekly rental rates for three bedroom houses increased by 24% from $360 to $445, whilst median four bedroom rental rates grew by 31% from $400

to $523 per week in Albany Creek.

Over the same time period, weekly rental rates for higher quality three bedroom houses increased by 21%, from $378 per week to $456 per week, whilst the price for premium four bedroom houses grew by 15% from $473 to $543. However, these figures continued to be restrained by the lack of new housing available for rent in Albany Creek.

Looking further afield, its worth noting that an examination of rental rates achieved for new homes that have recently been constructed in the neighbouring suburb of Bridgeman Downs are known to have achieved weekly rental rates of up to $575 per week for three-bedroom homes and up to $700 per week for four-bedroom layouts.

Average Days to Let a House by Catchment: QTR 2 2018


26 2729

0

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10

15

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35

Albany Creek Moreton Bay LGA Secondary Catchment

Aver

age

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22

This Research Report of National Property Research Pty Ltd is issued on the basis that it is only for the information of Ausbuild and that it is not a valuation. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published without the written permission of National Property Research Pty Ltd. Any recommendations contained herein are subject to the property market at the time of writing the report and as such are conditional. They must not be relied upon without specific advice from an Analyst of National Property Research Pty Ltd as to the appropriateness of the intended action. Past performance of property is no guarantee of future performance. Given that some of the material conveyed in this report is from speaking with Agents, Operators and other persons in positions of trust, National Property Research has endeavoured to ensure that all information is true and accurate. National Property Research reserves the right to amend the report should new information become available.

Suite 93, 26 Felix Street, Brisbane 4000 QLDwww.nprco.com.au(07) 3229 0111

Matthew GrossManaging Director

[email protected]

Tasman NealonProperty Economist

[email protected]

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