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Alcaldía de Chacao. Municipio Chacao. Caracas, Venezuela. Dirección de Administración Tributaria. Wilfredo Ramos Barrera, wramos@chacao.gov.ve Orangel Alva, oalva@chacao.gov.ve Angel Cova, acova@chacao.gov.ve Rafael Marquez, rmarquez@chacao.gov.ve. 27 de septiembre de 2006 Buenos Aires. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • Alcalda de ChacaoDireccin de Administracin Tributaria27 de septiembre de 2006Buenos AiresMunicipio Chacao. Caracas, VenezuelaWilfredo Ramos Barrera, wramos@chacao.gov.veOrangel Alva, oalva@chacao.gov.veAngel Cova, acova@chacao.gov.veRafael Marquez, rmarquez@chacao.gov.ve

  • ImpuestosInmuebles urbanos.Actividades econmicas.Patente de vehculos.Espectculos pblicos.Propaganda comercial.Apuestas licitas.

  • Declaracin y pago del impuesto de Actividades Econmicas.Declaracin estimada de ingresos periodo t. (Octubre t-1)Declaracin definitiva de ingresos periodo t. (Enero t+1)Pago de la obligacin:Anticipo. (Enero, Abril, Julio y Octubre en t)Diferencial. (Marzo t+1)

  • EstimacionesEconometricas:Modelo clsico de regresin lineal (Lineal, Log-Log, Log-Lineal)Modelo de ecuaciones simultaneas.Modelos PROBIT y LOGIT.Modelos autorregresivos.Modelos ARIMA.Modelos de ajustes polinomiales.

  • Modelo de ajustes polinomialesLa estimacin consta de 4 etapas:

    1) Identificacin.2) Estimacin.3)Verificacin de diagnstico.4) Prediccin.

  • Datos histricos utilizados para la estimacin:*Valor proyectado tomando en cuenta la recaudacin hasta octubre de 2005.**Estimado por el ajuste para el 2006.

  • Intervalo de confianza

  • Curva ajustadaFuente: coordinacin de ingresos y cuentas, y clculos propios.

  • Resultados de la estimacin

  • Ajuste de la estimacinEcuacin a estimar:=====================IT = C(1) + C(2)*T1 + C(3)*T2 + C(4)*T3Coeficientes estimados:=====================IT = -3117233429 + 2456221992*T1 - 407019240.9*T2 + 23912079.23*T3Recaudacin 2005: Bs. 200.254.700.089,34Estimacin puntual para el ao 2006 = 289.848.324.797 bolvares.

  • Resultados del ajuste de la estimacin

  • Curva ajustadaFuente: coordinacin de ingresos y cuentas, y clculos propios.

  • Ingresos nominales y reales. Anuales. Periodo 1993 - 2005Fuente: coordinacin de ingresos y cuentas, y clculos propios.

    Leyenda

    DIRECCIN DE ADMINISTRACIN TRIBUTARIA

    Gerencia de Administracin de Contribuyentes

    ndice de precios al consumidorIPC

    TOTAL INGRESOSIT

    INGRESOS ORDINARIOSIO

    IMPUESTOS INDIRECTOSII

    INMUEBLES URBANOSIU

    PATENTE DE IND. Y COMERCIOPIC

    PATENTE DE VEHICULOPV

    PROPAGANDA COMERCIALPC

    ESPECTACULOS PUBLICOSEP

    APUESTAS LICITASAL

    DEUDA MOROSADM

    INGRESOS NO TRIBUTARIOSINT

    DERECHO POR REMOCIN VEHICULOSDRV

    DERECHO POR ESTACIONAMIENTO DE VEHICULODEV

    PERMISOS MUNICIPALESPM

    CERTIFICACIONES Y SOLVENCIASCYS

    ASEO DOMICILIARIOAD

    MERCADO DE CHACAOMC

    OTROS TIPOS DE TASASOTT

    CONTRIBUCIONES ESPECIALESCE

    CONTRIBUCIONES POR MEJORASCPM

    DIVERSOSDIV

    REPAROS FISCALESRF

    REINTEGROS DE PARTICULARESRP

    INGRESOS VARIOSIV

    RECARGOS E INTERESES MORATORIOSRIM

    MULTAS Y RECARGOS (INCLUYE INFRAC. DE TRANSITO)MYR

    INGRESOS DE LA PROPIEDADIP

    INTERESES POR DINERO EN DEPOSITOIDD

    VENTA DE GACETAS MUNICIPALES Y FORMULARIOSVGM

    RENTAS INMOBILIARIASRM

    INGRESOS POR APORTES A MUNICIPIOIAM

    SITUADO MUNICIPALSM

    OTROS APORTESOA

    INGRESOS EXTRAORDINARIOSIE

    APORTES ESPECIALES ALOS MUNICIPIOSAEM

    RESERVAS DEL TESORO MUNICIPAL NO COMPROMETIDARTM

    OTROS INGRESOS EXTRAORDINARIOSOIE

    VENTA DE BIENESVB

    Mensuales

    Ingresos Nominales

    FECHAIPCITIOIIIUPICPVPCEPALDMINTDRVDEVPMCYSADMCOTTCPDDIVRFRPIVRIMMYRIPIIPIDDRMIAMSMIEAEMRTMOIE

    January-01207.910,897,664,298.3210,897,664,298.3210,482,791,639.07382,540,543.368,773,587,481.001,468,275.1626,535,116.5531,967,725.857,455,897.001,259,236,600.1533,756,282.849,697,100.007,534,970.005,666,407.77185,639.844,020,167.206,636,856.0015,142.030.0012,966,453.209,903,190.601,800,000.001,095,862.60167,400.000.000.00123,686,210.01122,346,210.011,340,000.00244,463,713.20244,463,713.200.000.000.000.00

    February-01208.91,668,895,413.491,668,895,413.491,464,639,263.38200,144,042.96979,489,143.44818,119.8214,496,110.6649,995,118.6313,084,390.00206,612,337.8755,825,069.5220,358,960.007,195,000.0018,081,976.99247,588.23386,142.309,554,302.001,100.000.0059,799,085.9521,278,316.2111,904,724.5221,466,485.955,149,559.270.000.0088,631,994.6487,291,994.641,340,000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

    March-01210.52,655,456,970.652,655,456,970.651,917,014,311.21107,420,270.651,636,953,113.851,624,784.4036,993,824.9553,642,917.9810,312,187.0070,067,212.3889,317,176.1266,120.0010,507,300.0068,448,933.22244,537.20540,659.709,435,852.0073,774.000.0097,709,422.3520,216,399.337,078,645.6068,483,861.901,930,515.520.000.00110,021,880.97108,681,880.971,340,000.00441,394,180.00441,394,180.000.000.000.000.00

    April-01212.99,293,520,488.639,293,520,488.638,875,602,812.05144,915,133.378,504,821,891.34545,446.5022,914,707.3158,957,774.0210,178,940.00133,268,919.5184,709,144.5143,876,434.009,879,900.0023,022,046.36146,848.67671,407.206,783,984.00328,524.280.00180,955,055.54179,229,159.3671,410.75925,176.91729,308.520.000.0063,974,640.5362,634,640.531,340,000.0088,278,836.0088,278,836.000.000.000.000.00

    May-01216.11,899,354,841.391,899,354,841.391,013,798,905.71125,558,907.62766,665,376.85603,527.6017,707,030.0041,517,194.918,451,656.0053,295,212.7383,404,840.1014,863,340.0012,253,800.0047,501,220.30405,958.26115,550.107,993,356.00271,615.440.00529,349,878.42490,609,842.45137,943.8518,931,691.8519,670,400.270.000.0096,243,545.1694,903,545.161,340,000.00176,557,672.00176,557,672.000.000.000.000.00

    June-01218.21,648,567,806.351,556,714,532.40862,662,558.43183,347,110.52504,916,379.53403,254.2228,332,631.0193,959,961.379,722,395.0041,980,826.78101,871,121.8723,036,854.009,264,800.0060,571,101.01178,604.38784,191.608,034,432.001,138.880.00370,474,892.71330,650,282.6680,762.3229,328,295.0010,415,552.730.000.00133,427,123.39132,087,123.391,340,000.0088,278,836.0088,278,836.0091,853,273.9591,853,273.950.000.00

    July-01221.510,286,811,383.1010,286,811,383.109,472,189,815.95141,980,697.399,112,979,924.79271,947.0023,180,157.0732,519,154.4911,232,463.00150,025,472.2181,546,314.5024,344,950.0011,640,858.0537,877,168.67332,346.24367,589.706,971,240.0012,161.840.00336,828,663.42252,902,208.241,453,214.8923,482,092.1058,991,148.190.000.00131,410,081.23130,070,081.231,340,000.00264,836,508.00264,836,508.000.000.000.000.00

    August-01222.91,624,788,844.541,624,788,844.54961,961,364.98112,242,765.63636,226,504.97328,342.6530,043,722.20119,197,596.519,093,826.0054,828,607.02112,976,857.8816,171,362.2711,548,800.0070,801,034.54204,294.542,672,298.0011,438,646.00140,422.530.00342,035,219.24278,441,598.800.0050,125,022.9313,468,597.510.000.00119,536,566.44118,196,566.441,340,000.0088,278,836.0088,278,836.000.000.000.000.00

    September-01225.61,771,784,335.791,771,784,335.79732,563,073.65174,701,465.85376,770,463.73189,242.0619,137,521.46100,261,976.118,618,105.0052,884,299.4477,291,544.7021,722,990.008,789,100.0038,223,904.98158,942.44239,382.008,072,877.0084,348.280.00620,319,326.31575,738,923.840.0033,867,857.2810,712,545.190.000.00165,052,719.13163,712,719.131,340,000.00176,557,672.00176,557,672.000.000.000.000.00

    October-01227.610,790,060,249.6610,718,850,856.669,919,111,541.96134,495,773.679,453,276,578.81180,312.28219,589,889.1322,172,075.909,727,972.0079,668,940.17122,153,505.6022,295,290.0015,394,700.0075,006,571.64284,002.92393,322.928,773,939.005,679.120.00238,110,090.92202,834,958.220.0023,136,761.1012,138,371.600.000.00174,639,210.18173,299,210.181,340,000.00264,836,508.00264,836,508.0071,209,393.0071,209,393.000.000.00

    November-01229.81,677,704,363.001,677,704,363.00755,394,627.36116,643,051.99499,003,084.28215,976.7334,555,635.9667,116,178.0611,304,915.0026,555,785.34142,142,165.7516,102,000.0012,690,100.00102,501,944.25283,044.98415,780.6810,146,484.002,811.840.00346,173,702.76180,347,693.871,985,170.8537,138,256.69126,702,581.350.000.00257,436,195.13256,096,195.131,340,000.00176,557,672.00176,557,672.000.000.000.000.00

    December-01231.31,968,861,844.841,665,313,975.33123,278,229.3766,962,029.85140,354,885.93165,743.11-107,583,281.8918,965,759.6716,828,102.00-12,415,009.3061,527,551.4311,960,636.0010,948,400.0028,856,621.38126,443.0320,985.309,544,292.0070,173.720.00992,247,870.86944,599,291.500.0017,104,127.6330,544,451.730.000.00223,423,805.67222,083,805.671,340,000.00264,836,518.00264,836,518.00303,547,869.51303,547,869.510.000.00

    January-02233.415,465,583,456.5215,465,583,456.5215,122,010,323.06442,286,145.5614,132,461,840.131,489,228.5229,195,114.8313,552,739.348,922,905.42494,102,349.26217,995,020.820.0012,716,400.0031,763,102.50189,481.24162,586,317.409,462,496.001,277,223.680.00100,172,531.6876,177,836.020.00800,235.7423,194,459.920.000.0025,405,580.9624,065,580.961,340,000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

    February-02237.62,703,721,634.382,628,406,985.301,710,304,839.43420,620,897.071,168,294,399.60661,186.6514,551,906.3118,620,534.6813,815,311.4173,740,603.7171,025,979.850.0012,610,950.0052,786,603.81174,440.50568,577.704,823,300.0062,107.840.00222,223,388.53137,152,487.081,683,558.8110,381,788.9973,005,553.650.000.00305,493,725.74304,153,725.741,340,000.00319,359,051.75319,359,051.7575,314,649.0875,314,649.080.000.00

    March-02247.61,904,856,102.341,863,170,020.34732,988,236.05169,033,658.30430,019,467.76703,735.993,753,067.7935,322,379.449,941,229.0084,214,697.7776,872,571.770.0013,944,550.0056,354,866.21150,144.94129,440.705,970,516.00323,053.920.00158,974,087.2199,733,338.91164,269.1422,538,240.9236,538,238.240.000.00894,335,125.31892,995,125.311,340,000.000.000.0041,686,082.0041,686,082.000.000.00

    April-02252.811,623,116,240.1311,623,116,240.1310,616,238,055.96174,706,827.1010,296,392,393.35611,491.4916,682,883.8619,595,360.6717,606,226.6590,642,872.8449,824,925.840.0015,947,350.0024,904,614.84464,127.52688,337.107,774,148.0046,348.380.00158,35