alexandre tombini brazil economic overview 27-07-12

7/31/2019 Alexandre Tombini Brazil Economic Overview 27-07-12

1/53

6

Fnhwfdauh Qoleidi

Mophudou

Jxny 5=. 5365

Eufzin Hbodolib Ophupih}

Nodaod


2/53

5

Eufzin ir flodm qgh nfumhrq boxdquihr id

qhulr o` qhuuiqouy. sosxnfqiod fda MAS

Eufzin gfr pfrq dfqxufn uhroxubhr.idbnxaidm uhbhdqny airbophuha nfumho``rgouh oin `ihnar. f aiphurh idaxrquifnefrh. f aydflib fda rosgirqibfqhasuipfqh rhbqou. fda f }hnn,rquxbqxuha

sxenib rhbqou

Eufzin ir f pimouoxr ahlobufby. }iqg `uhhlxnqisfuqy hnhbqiodr fda f rqfenh soniqibfnryrqhl

Eufzin gfr mooa uhnfqiodr }iqg fnn iqrdhimgeour fda gfr idbuhfrha iqr qihr }iqgfnn uhmiodr o` qgh }ouna

Roxubh: IEMH

Eufzin

0qg nfumhrq MAS: XR! 5.1=8 einniod '5366)

Bodqidhdqfn boxdquy: 8qg nfumhrq fuhf7.861.7== kl5

8qg nfumhrq sosxnfqiod: 696 linniod shosnh'5363)


3/53

2

Hwhbxqiph Rxllfuy

Lfbuohbodolib fda ìdfdbifn rqfeiniqy. rxrqfidfenhhbodolib muo}qg fda qfumhqha robifn sonibihr gfph fnnbodquiexqha qo sophuqy uhaxbqiod fda ehqqhu idbolhairquiexqiod

Hbodolib muo}qg }inn fbbhnhufqh qguoxmgoxq 5G5365fda 5362 fda id`nfqiod ir bodphumidm qo qfumhq

Oxqnook ir òu rxrqfidfenh hbodolib muo}qg ophu qghbolidm yhfur. }iqg rxerqfdqifn idphrqlhdqr.sfuqibxnfuny id idùfrquxbqxuh


4/53

1

Hbodolib fda Robifn Fbgihphlhdqr

Uhbhdq Hbodolib Ahphnoslhdqr

Nookidm @ou}fua

Idahw


5/53

8

Hbodolib fda Robifn

Fbgihphlhdqr


6/53

0

Lfid `hfqxuhr o` qgh lfbuohbodolib soniby `uflh}ouk:

, Id`nfqiod qfumhqidm

, @irbfn uhrsodrieiniqy

, Hwbgfdmh ufqh `nhwieiniqy

Qgh lfbuohbodolib `xdaflhdqfnr. boleidha }iqgfahvxfqh suxahdqifn soniby fda rquodm efdk rxshupiriod.

uhrxnqha id:

, Bfsfbiqy qo feroue idqhudfn fda hwqhudfn rgobkr

, Lfbuohbodolib fda `idfdbifn rqfeiniqy, Rxrqfidfenh hbodolib muo}qg

, Buhaiq fda bfsiqfn lfukhq ahphnoslhdq

, Idphrqlhdq muo}qg

Lfbuohbodolib Soniby


7/53=Roxubh: EBE

Fbgihpha Id`nfqiod Qfumhq `ou 7qg Yhfu id f Uo}

3

5

1

0

7

63

65

61

60

67

ahz99

ahz33

ahz36

ahz35

ahz32

ahz31

ahz38

ahz30

ahz3=

ahz37

ahz39

ahz63

ahz66

(yoy


8/537Roxubh: EL&@Eophrsf / EBE

Ahbnididm Uhfn Idqhuhrq Ufqh

3

8

63

68

53

58

jfd35

jfd32

jfd31

jfd38

jfd30

jfd3=

jfd37

jfd39

jfd63

jfd66

jfd65

(f

ddxfn

Jxn 53qg

6$9(

203,afy lfukhq ufqh airboxdqha ey qgh ISBF hwshbqha `ou qgh dhwq 65 lodqgr '@obxr)xs qo Jxn 53qg


9/539Roxubh: EBE

Bolliqlhdq qo @irbfn Qfumhqr

Suilfuy `irbfn rxusnxr

2.5 2.2

2.=2.7

2.5 2.2

2.1

5.3

5.=

2.62.3

3.3

3.8

6.3

6.8

5.3

5.8

2.3

2.8

1.3

5335

5332

5331

5338

5330

533=

5337

5339

5363

5366

5365*

(o

`M

AS

*Lfy 65


10/5363

85.3

03.1

81.7

83.0

17.11=.2

18.8

27.8

15.6

29.6

20.1

28.3

22

20

29

15

18

17

86

81

8=

03

5336

5335

5332

5331

5338

5330

533=

5337

5339

5363

5366

5365*

(o

`M

AS

,58$1 s$s$o` MAS

Roxubh: EBE

Ahbnididm Dhq Sxenib Aheq

*Lfy 65


11/5366Roxubh: EBE

Uoexrq Idqhudfqiodfn Uhrhuphr

XR!einniod

1 8 65 65 = = 9 63 63 9

5125 29

8503

8518

20 22 2027

19 82 81

70

673691

529

579

285

2=8

3

83

633

683

533

583

233

283

133

6975

6971

6970

6977

6993

6995

6991

6990

6997

5333

5335

5331

5330

5337

5363

5365*

fr o` Jxn 53qg


12/5365Roxubh: EBE

Eufzin Gfr Ehbolh f Dhq Hwqhudfn Buhaiqou

XR!einniod

*hrqilfqh Jxd 65

=97= 77 95

63263090 9=

638637633 99

77 95636

626

675693 693

602 608

686

620

636

=8

,65

,57

,05,86

,=2

,91,663

,=3

,23

63

83

93

623

6=3

563

6975

6971

6970

6977

6993

6995

6991

6990

6997

5333

5335

5331

5330

5337

5363

5365*


13/53

62Roxubh: EBE

Rquodm Hwqhudfn Aheq Ufqior

653.0(

02.1(

27.7(

56.=(60.6(

65.0(

3

53

13

03

73

633

653

613

rgouq qhul aheq/idqn$uhrhuphr

aheq rhupibhr/hwsouqr hwqhudfn aheq/MAS

Ahb 32 Jxd 65*

(

*hrqilfqh


14/53

61

Rophuhimd Buhaiq Ufqidmr Uh`nhbq Qghrh Ilsuophlhdqr

Roxubh: Looayr / R&S / @iqbg

8

0

=

7

9

63

66

65

62

61

6991

6998

6990

699=

6997

6999

5333

5336

5335

5332

5331

5338

5330

533=

5337

5339

5363

5366

5365

Looay-r R&S @iqbg

Idphrqlhdq mufah

xsmufahr id 5366: Fsuin: @iqbg Jxdh: Looayr

Dophlehu: R&S

F2 / F,

Eff6 / EEE+

Eff5 / EEE

Eff2 / EEE,

Ef6 / EE+

Ef5 / EE

Ef2 / EE,

E6 / E+

E5 / E

E2 / E,


15/53

68

Lfbuohbodolib fda robifn idbnxriod

sonibihr gfph nha qo f lfukha ilsuophlhdq

id nipidm bodaiqiodr

F rimdi`ibfdq rgfuh o` no} idbolh muoxsrjoidha qgh liaanh bnfrr

Robifn Ahphnoslhdq


16/53

60Roxubh: ISHF

Ahbnididm Sophuqy fda Idhvxfniqy

3.83

3.86

3.85

3.82

3.81

3.88

3.80

3.8=

3.87

3.89

3.03

3.06

3.053.02

3.01

3.08

3

5

1

0

7

63

65

61

60

67

53

6976

6972

6971

6978

6970

697=

6977

6979

6993

6995

6992

6998

6990

699=

6997

6999

5336

5335

5332

5331

5338

5330

533=

5337

5339

(o

`gox

rhgonar

Hwquhlh Sophuqy Midi Idahw 'UGR)


17/53

6=6=

5333 5363

3 '53()

43 qo 5 '55()

45 qo 8 '13()

48 qo 63 '60()

463 '5()

" o` soidqr shu 63.333 faxnqr

'( o` lxdibisfniqihr)

3 '3()

43 qo 5 '3()

45 qo 8 '0()

48 qo 63 '59()

463 '08()

" o` soidqr shu 63.333 faxnqr

'( o` lxdibisfniqihr)

Fnn lxdibisfniqihr gfph f nhfrq odh efdk eufdbg. oxqsorq ou bouuhrsodahdq$

@idfdbifn Idbnxriod ir f Suiouiqy

Roxubh: EBE / IEMH

Efdk eufdbghr. efdk fapfdbha oxqsorqr 'SFF). buhaiq booshufqiphr'ghfavxfuqhur fda oxqsorqr) fda efdk bouuhrsodahdqr


18/53

67

Uhbhdq HbodolibAhphnoslhdqr

Id`nfqiodFbqipiqy

Buhaiq & @idfdbifn Ryrqhl


19/53

69

1.3

1.8

8.3

8.8

0.3

0.8

=.3

=.8

ahz63

jfd66

`hp66

lfu66

feu66

lfi66

jxd66

jxn66

fmo66

rhq66

oxq66

dop66

ahz66

jfd65

`hp65

lfu65

feu65

lfi65

jxd65

jxn65

(

yoy

ISBF,68 fda ISBF IDSB ISB,@ish ISB '63. L fda AI)

Roxubh: IEMH / @ish / @MP

Ahbnididm Bodrxlhu Id`nfqiod

1$23(ISB,@ish

'5da }hhk Jxn)

1$93(IDSB 'Jxd)

8$26(ISB,63 'Jxn)

1$95(ISBF 'Jxd)


20/53

53

1.3

1.8

8.3

8.8

0.3

0.8

=.3

=.8

ahz63

jfd66

`hp66

lfu66

feu66

lfi66

jxd66

jxn66

fmo66

rhq66

oxq66

dop66

ahz66

jfd65

`hp65

lfu65

feu65

lfi65

jxd65

jxn65

(

yoy

ISBF,68 fda ISBF

Roxubh: IEMH / @ish / @MP

Ahbnididm Bodrxlhu Id`nfqiod

1$95(ISBF 'Jxd)


21/53

56Roxubh: EBE

Id`nfqiod Ahbnididm Qo}fuar qgh Bhdqufn Qfumhq

Uh`huhdbhRbhdfuio

3

5

1

0

7

63

65

61

60

67

ahz99

ahz33

ahz36

ahz35

ahz32

ahz31

ahz38

ahz30

ahz3=

ahz37

ahz39

ahz63

ahz66

ahz65

ahz62

Y

oY


22/53

55

Uhbhdq HbodolibAhphnoslhdqr

Id`nfqiodFbqipiqy

Buhaiq & @idfdbifn Ryrqhl


23/53

52

,1

,5

3

5

1

0

7

63

6V3=

5V3=

2V3=

1V3=

6V37

5V37

2V37

1V37

6V39

5V39

2V39

1V39

6V63

5V63

2V63

1V63

6V66

5V66

2V66

1V66

6V65

5V65

2V65

1V65

6V62

5V62

2V62

1V62

(

Exridhrr Bybnh

Roxubh: IEMH / EBE '@obxr)

@obxr Jxny 53qg

Lfukhqhwshbqfqiodr

MAS uhfn muo}qg


24/53

51

Hbodolib Muo}qg Hwshbqha qo Fbbhnhufqh Hnhlhdqr }gibg hwsnfid muo}qg fbbhnhufqiod

Xdhlsnoylhdq ufqh fq uhboua no}r

@oulfn joe buhfqiod rqinn rquodm

Uhfn nfeou idbolh muo}idm

Buhaiq muo}idm fq f rxrqfidfenh sfbh

Eoqg idqhuhrq ufqh fda rsuhfa fuh ahbuhfridm

Uhrhuph uhvxiuhlhdqr gfph ehhd uhaxbha

@irbfn rqilxni

Auiphur o` aolhrqib ahlfda rqinn suhrhdq

Fq qgh hda o` 5365 fda qgh ehmiddidm o` 5362.Eufzin }inn eh muo}idm 1( 'vxfuqhuny fddxfnizha)

Lodhqfuy fda `idfdbifn rqilxni fnuhfay id snfbh


25/53

58

Xdhlsnoylhdq Ufqh fq Uhboua No}r

Roxubh: IEMH / EBE

('

rhfrodfnnyfajxrqha)

8

0

=

7

9

63

66

65

62

61

jfd32

jfd31

jfd38

jfd30

jfd3=

jfd37

jfd39

jfd63

jfd66

jfd65

Lfy 658$1(

xs qo Lfy 65


26/53

50

6.8

6.3

5.6

6.0

6.5

3.3

3.8

6.3

6.8

5.3

5.8

5337 5339 5363 5366 5365

linniodjoer

Roxubh: LQH / EBE

@oulfn Joe Buhfqiod ir Rquodm

6 linniod fda 689 qgoxrfda joerid qgh nfrq 65 lodqgr'Jxn 66 Jxd 65)

*

*65 lodqgr xs qo Jxd 65


27/53

5=

633

635

631

630

637

663

665

661

660667

653

jfd39

lfu39

lfi39

jxn39

rhq39

dop39

jfd63

lfu63

lfi63

jxn63

rhq63

dop63

jfd66

lfu66

lfi66

jxn66

rhq66

dop66

jfd65

lfu65

fphufmh'A

hb37

alexandre tombini brazil economic overview 27-07-12

Documents