ALFISHES: A Size-structured and Spatially-explicit Model for Predicting

the Impact of Hydrology on the Resident Fishes of the Everglades Mangrove Zone

of Florida Bay

Jon Cline

University of Tennessee

Overview

• Introduction

• Objectives

• The Ecology

• The Model

• New Features

• Status

• The Future

Objectives

• The primary objective of ALFISHES is to predict the impact of hydrology on resident fishes of the Everglades mangrove zone of Florida bay.

• The ultimate goal of the model is use these predictions of fish biomass to assess the availability of prey base fish to wading birds and crocodiles.

The Ecology: The Habitat

• The creeks and flats of the Mangrove zone.

• Seasonal flooding

• Changes in bay level

The Ecology: Hypotheses

• The resident fish biomass is negatively impacted by saline period due to reduced food availability

• The resulting fish community is less robust than the historic one

Mean Biomass

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Freshwater Transitional Oligohaline Mesohaline Polyhaline

Salinity Cluster

Log g/m2

A

B

C

C

D

The Model Landscape: Overview

• The estuarine fish model includes two sub-regions– E. Panhandle ME

and– LP Key/STS ME

The Model Landscape: Mangrove Zone

The Model Landscape: Inputs

Based on remote sensing and physical surveys of field sites (Lorenz 1999)

Topography

Florida Gap Analysis Map (FGAP v6.6)

Vegetation

Southern Inland Coastal Systems (SICS) numerical model (Swain 1999)

Hydrology

The Model Landscape: A Cell

• 500×500 meter cells

• Physical factors (per cell)– Water depth– Salinity– microhabitat

The Model Landscape: Flooding

Mangrove Hypsograph

0102030405060708090100

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

Relative Depth (cm)

% W

et

deep_creek

high_creek

low_flats

high_flats

New Features: Plug and Play

New Features: Components

• Habitat components:– Ponds, Holes, Marsh, Creeks

• LowerTrophicLevel components:– Seasonal variation– ODE models

• WadingBirdPop components…

New Features: Client-Server

• CORBA Client– Java Application/Applet– XML used to specify simulation parameters– Visualization of simulation output

• CORBA Server– C++ ORB (MICO and ORBacus)– Runs on Solaris and Linux

New Features: User-Friendly

StatusWa te r M a na g e m e ntSc e na rio s (SFWM M )

M a ng ro veZo ne

Sp o o nb illPo p ula tio nDyna m ic s

Hyd ro lo g y (SIC S)

Lo we r Tro p hicLe ve l Dyna m ic s

To p o g ra p hy

?

?

StatusWa te r M a na g e m e ntSc e na rio s (SFWM M )

M a ng ro veZo ne

Sp o o nb illPo p ula tio nDyna m ic s

Hyd ro lo g y (SIC S)

Lo we r Tro p hicLe ve l Dyna m ic s

To p o g ra p hy

?

?

The Future

• Incorporate SFWMM scenarios into boundary conditions for SICS

• Refine and calibrate model sub-components as more data become available

• Development of the Spoonbill component

The FutureWa te r M a na g e m e ntSc e na rio s (SFWM M )

M a ng ro veZo ne

Sp o o nb illPo p ula tio nDyna m ic s

Hyd ro lo g y (SIC S)

Lo we r Tro p hicLe ve l Dyna m ic s

To p o g ra p hy