alleghany ashe wilkes pathways to prosperity lmi data

Labor & Economic Analysis Division NC Department of Commerce

nc

Data for Career Pathway Development:

Alleghany, Ashe, Wilkes CountiesPathways to Prosperity Employer Roundtable MeetingJanuary 28, 2014


2

Career Pathway Goals

1. Jobs and career opportunities

2. Seamless transition to higher ed

3. Talent pipeline for area businesses


3

Many young North Carolinians can’t find jobs

Unemployment RateAll ages 9.2%

16-19 25.4%20-24 16.0%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey(Annual Average Unemployment Rates, 2012)


4

Meanwhile, a skills gap?

“Can We Fix the Skills Gap?” – Forbes, 8/2/13

“Building a Country That Builds Things: The manufacturing industry faces a serious skills gap” –U.S. News and World Report, 10/4/13

“Skills Gap: Where Are the Qualified Workers?”--Wilkes Journal-Patriot, 12/3/12

“Stubborn Skills Gap in America’s Workforce” – NYTimes.com, 10/8/13

“Is There Really a Skills Gap?”--U.S. News and World Report, 6/19/13


5

Questions1. What are the largest and fastest-growing

industries and occupations in the area?

2. At certain education/experience levels, which area occupations have been growing and pay well?

3. What other considerations are important for career pathway programming?


6

Reviewing the Area’s Industries (1)

North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)

• XX - Industry Sector (20 broad sectors) • XXX - Industry Sub sector • XXXX - Industry Group…


7

Jobs by Industry Sector, 2013

Source: EMSI


8

County Differences – Industry Emp. Share

Source: EMSI, 2013 2-digit industry employment

Alleghany Ashe Wilkes

1 – Healthcare & Social Assistance (20%)

1 – Manufacturing (16%)


2 – Government (19%)

1 – Government (16%)

1- Government (20%)


1 – Healthcare & Social Assistance (16%)

3 – Retail (13%)

4 – Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting (9%)

4 – Retail – 15% 4 – Management of Companies & Enterprises (10%)


9

Employment Change, Industry Sectors

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and HuntingMining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction

UtilitiesConstruction

ManufacturingWholesale Trade

Retail TradeTransportation and Warehousing

InformationFinance and Insurance

Real Estate and Rental and LeasingProfessional, Scientific, and Technical Services

Management of Companies and EnterprisesAdministrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services

Educational Services (Private)Health Care and Social Assistance

Arts, Entertainment, and RecreationAccommodation and Food Services

Other Services (except Public Administration)Government

(3,000) (2,000) (1,000) 0 1,000

Industry Sector Employment Change:Alleghany, Ashe, Wilkes Counties, 2003-13

Source: EMSI


10

Employment Change - %

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and HuntingMining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction

UtilitiesConstruction

ManufacturingWholesale Trade

Retail TradeTransportation and Warehousing

InformationFinance and Insurance

Real Estate and Rental and LeasingProfessional, Scientific, and Technical Services

Management of Companies and EnterprisesAdministrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services

Educational Services (Private)Health Care and Social Assistance

Arts, Entertainment, and RecreationAccommodation and Food Services

Other Services (except Public Administration)Government

(100%) 0% 100% 200% 300%

Industry Sector Employment Change (%):Alleghany, Ashe, Wilkes Counties, 2003-13

Source: EMSI


11

Industry Sector Trends

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Employment Trends (2003-13):Large Industry Sectors, Alleghany, Ashe, and Wilkes Counties

ConstructionManufacturingWholesale TradeRetail TradeManagement of Companies and EnterprisesAdministrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation ServicesHealth Care and Social AssistanceAccommodation and Food ServicesGovernment

Jobs

Source: EMSI


12

Reviewing the Area’s Industries (2)

North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)

• XX - Industry Sector (20 broad sectors) • XXX - Industry Sub sector • XXXX - Industry Group…


13

Top-10 Employing Subsectors, 2013Industry Subsector 2003

Jobs2013 Jobs

Change % Change 2013 Avg. Earnings/ Job

Local Government 4,769 4,440 (329) (7%) $41,854

Food Manufacturing 3,020 2,626 (394) (13%) $32,446

Food Services and Drinking Places

2,251 2,356 105 5% $14,099

Management of Companies and Enterprises

3,186 2,256 (930) (29%) $60,893

Ambulatory Health Care Services

1,018 1,358 340 33% $44,246

State Government 1,290 1,178 (112) (9%) $45,076

General Merchandise Stores 861 921 60 7% $22,633

Nursing and Residential Care Facilities

1,052 830 (222) (21%) $27,517

Social Assistance 537 815 278 52% $24,384

Wood Product Manufacturing 874 796 (78) (9%) $49,192

Source: EMSI


14

Subsector Trends, 2003-13

Source: EMSI

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Employment Trends for the 10 Largest Subsectors as of 2013:Alleghany, Ashe and Wilkes Counties

Local Government

Food Manufacturing

Food Services and Drinking Places

Management of Companies and En-terprises


State Government

General Merchandise Stores

Nursing and Residential Care Facilities

Social Assistance

Wood Product Manufacturing


15

Subsectors with Greatest Growth 2003-13Industry Subsector(-Minimum of 100 jobs in 2013)

2003 Jobs

2013 Jobs

Change % Change 2013 Avg. Earnings/ Job

Chemical Manufacturing 18 115 97 539% $78,667

Educational Services (Private)

45 162 117 260% $22,313

Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing

59 135 76 129% $46,985

Real Estate 93 187 94 101% $24,894

Crop Production 261 483 222 85% $28,492

Transportation Equipment Manufacturing

324 497 173 53% $54,488


Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing

168 242 74 44% $36,271


1,018 1,358 340 33% $44,246

Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction

183 243 60 33% $39,952

Source: EMSI


16

Top 10-employing Sectors, Filtered byStable/Growing Jobs and Avg. $/Job > $20k

Industry 2003 Jobs

2013 Jobs

Change % Change

2013 Avg. Earnings/ Job


1,018 1,358 340 33% $44,246

General Merchandise Stores 861 921 60 7% $22,633


Administrative and Support Services

608 731 123 20% $27,885

Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers

611 728 117 19% $32,495

Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods

679 716 37 5% $57,911

Hospitals (Private) 486 596 110 23% $42,244

Transportation Equipment Manufacturing

324 497 173 53% $54,488

Crop Production 261 483 222 85% $28,492

Textile Mills 253 282 29 11% $32,031

Source: EMSI


17

Close-up On Manufacturing


18

Manufacturing Employment Trends

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Employment Trends in the Largest Manufacturing IndustriesAlleghany, Ashe and Wilkes Counties

Food ManufacturingTextile MillsWood Product ManufacturingPlastics and Rubber Products Manu-facturingComputer and Electronic Product ManufacturingElectrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component ManufacturingTransportation Equipment Manufac-turingFurniture and Related Product Manufacturing

Source: EMSI


19

Manufacturing Employment Trends

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Closeup on Trends in Large Manufacturing Industries Other than Food Manufacturing

Textile MillsWood Product ManufacturingPlastics and Rubber Products Manu-facturingComputer and Electronic Product ManufacturingElectrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component ManufacturingTransportation Equipment Manufac-turingFurniture and Related Product Manufacturing

Source: EMSI


20

Occupations


21

Employment in Major Occupational Groups Alleghany, Ashe, Wilkes Counties, 2013

Office and Administrative Support Occupations

Production Occupations

Sales and Related Occupations

Transportation and Material Moving Occupations

Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations

Education, Training, and Library Occupations

Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations

Healthcare Support Occupations

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations

Management Occupations

Construction and Extraction Occupations

Business and Financial Operations Occupations

Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations

Personal Care and Service Occupations

Protective Service Occupations

Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000Source: EMSI


22

Occupational Groups with > 100 Annual OpeningsAlleghany, Ashe, Wilkes Counties

Source: EMSI

Major Occupation Group 2013 Jobs

Average Annual Openings

Median Hourly Earnings

Production Occupations

3,769 219 $13.30

Sales and Related Occupations

3,281 200 $12.76

Office and Administrative Support Occupations

4,679 178 $14.56

Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations

2,854 152 $8.89

Transportation and Material Moving Occupations

2,934 143 $13.26

Construction and Extraction Occupations

1,100 104 $14.96

Healthcare Support Occupations

1,439 102 $10.55


23

Top 10 Occupations Requiring On-the-Job Training:Alleghany, Ashe, Wilkes Counties

Occupation2013 Jobs

% Change 2003-13

Median Hourly

EarningsEducation Level

Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 216 23% $10.28 Short-term on-the-job trainingPolice and Sheriff's Patrol Officers 115 6% $15.52 Moderate-term on-the-job trainingSocial and Human Service Assistants 91 6% $12.49 Short-term on-the-job training

Insurance Sales Agents 89 14% $20.18 Moderate-term on-the-job training

Pharmacy Technicians 89 11% $12.26 Moderate-term on-the-job training

Highway Maintenance Workers 71 3% $14.72 Moderate-term on-the-job training

Medical Secretaries 58 9% $13.52 Moderate-term on-the-job trainingExtruding, Forming, Pressing, and Compacting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders 42 24% $11.90 Moderate-term on-the-job trainingFarmworkers, Farm, Ranch, and Aquacultural Animals 42 50% $11.86 Short-term on-the-job trainingRefuse and Recyclable Material Collectors 41 8% $10.06 Short-term on-the-job training

Source: EMSI


24

Top 10 Occupations Requiring Post-secondary Educ.Alleghany, Ashe, Wilkes Counties

Occupation2013 Jobs

% Change2003-13

Median Hourly


Nursing Assistants 366 -16% $10.57 Postsecondary non-degree awardAutomotive Service Technicians and Mechanics 224 -20% $13.45 Postsecondary non-degree awardLicensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 130 -16% $19.19 Postsecondary non-degree awardEmergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics 95 27% $17.45 Postsecondary non-degree awardHeating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers 87 -20% $16.78 Postsecondary non-degree award

Dental Assistants 67 43% $16.34 Postsecondary non-degree awardWelders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers 61 -24% $15.44 Postsecondary non-degree awardBus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists 61 -9% $16.94 Postsecondary non-degree award

Firefighters 52 8% $10.24 Postsecondary non-degree awardTelecommunications Equipment Installers and Repairers, Except Line Installers 43 -17% $27.71 Postsecondary non-degree award


25

Top 10 Occupations Requiring Associate’s Degree Alleghany, Ashe, Wilkes Counties

Occupation2013 Jobs

% Change2003-13

Median Hourly


Registered Nurses 521 0% $26.91 Associate's degreePreschool Teachers, Except Special Education 120 19% $9.37 Associate's degree

Dental Hygienists 68 55% $28.22 Associate's degreeComputer User Support Specialists 67 -27% $21.96 Associate's degree

Paralegals and Legal Assistants 63 2% $15.24 Associate's degree

Radiologic Technologists 53 10% $24.45 Associate's degree

Respiratory Therapists 27 0% $23.72 Associate's degreeMedical and Clinical Laboratory Technicians 26 13% $18.55 Associate's degree

Physical Therapist Assistants 26 4% $24.24 Associate's degreeAppraisers and Assessors of Real Estate 25 9% $18.11 Associate's degree

Source: EMSI


26

Large and Growing Occupations Requiring Associate’s Degree or Training Credentials

Source: EMSI


28

Where Alleghany Works

2011

Count Share

Alleghany County 1,414 44.6%

Surry County 197 6.2%

Ashe County 176 5.5%

Wilkes County 173 5.5%

Forsyth County 166 5.2%

Mecklenburg County 130 4.1%

Iredell County 102 3.2%

All Other Locations (incl. Galax & Grayson Co., VA) 814 25.7%

Source: Census Bureau, LED, On The Map


29

Where Ashe Works

2011Count Share

Ashe County 4,105 46.3%

Watauga County 1,226 13.8%

Wilkes County 412 4.7%

Buncombe County 373 4.2%


Henderson County 202 2.3%

Catawba County 180 2.0%

Burke County 153 1.7%

All Other Counties (NC; 3.6% in TN or VA; …) 1,955 22.1%



30

Where Wilkes Works

2011

Count Share

Wilkes County 11,595 45.6%

Wake County 1,576 6.2%

Surry County 1,508 5.9%

Forsyth County 1,390 5.5%

Iredell County 1,049 4.1%

Yadkin County 915 3.6%


Guilford County 654 2.6%

All Other Locations (NC; < 1% ea. VA, GA…) 5,917 23.3%



31

The Primary Commuting Region


32

Jobs by Industry Sector:6-County Commuting Region

Source: EMSI


33

Industry Sector Trends6-County Commuting Region

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Employment Trends (2003-13):Large Industry Sectors, 6-County Commuting Region

Construction

Manufacturing

Retail Trade

Finance and Insurance

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services

Health Care and Social Assistance

Accommodation and Food Services

Other Services (except Public Administra-tion)

Government

Jobs


34

Employment in Major Occupational Groups6-County Commuting Region

Office and Administrative Support OccupationsSales and Related Occupations

Food Preparation and Serving Related OccupationsTransportation and Material Moving Occupations

Healthcare Practitioners and Technical OccupationsManagement Occupations

Production OccupationsEducation, Training, and Library Occupations

Business and Financial Operations OccupationsBuilding and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations

Construction and Extraction OccupationsPersonal Care and Service Occupations

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair OccupationsHealthcare Support Occupations

Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media OccupationsProtective Service Occupations

Computer and Mathematical OccupationsCommunity and Social Service Occupations

Legal OccupationsArchitecture and Engineering Occupations

Life, Physical, and Social Science OccupationsFarming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations

Military occupations

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000


35

Occupations Highly Accessible to Young Adults

Higher than Average % of Employment < 25 Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors

Hairdressers, Hairstylists and CosmotologistsVeterinary Technicians

Nursing AssistantsPreschool Teachers, Except Special Education

Dental AssistantsEmergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics

Source: EMSI (Alleghany, Ashe, Wilkes, Forsyth, Surry & Watauga Counties)


36

Opportunities As Older Workers Retire?

Higher than Average % of Employment 55+ Morticians, Undertakers, Funeral Directors

Real Estate Sales AgentsLegal Secretaries

Medical Records and Health Information Technicians

Registered NursesLicensed Practical NursesBus and Truck Mechanics

Source: EMSI (Alleghany, Ashe, Wilkes, Forsyth, Surry & Watauga Counties)


37

Biz/admin/jack-of-all-trades skills needed?• Business establishments with < 10 employees are dominant in

the High Country WDB area

Agricu

lture,

Fores

try, F

ishing &

Hunting

Constructi

on

Wholes

ale Tr

ade

Transp

ortation an

d Ware

housing

Informati

on

Finan

ce an

d Insu

rance

Real E

state

and Ren

tal an

d Leasi

ng

Profes

sional

and Te

chnica

l Serv

ices

Manag

emen

t of C

ompanies

and En

terpris

es

Administrati

ve an

d Wast

e Serv

ices

Health

Care an

d Socia

l Assi

stance

Accommodati

on and Fo

od Servi

ces

Other Se

rvices

, Ex.

Public Admin

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% with 0-9 Employees, by Industry

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW), 2nd Qtr. 2013 Some industries are omitted due to data suppression


38

Vetting the Data

How well do the data reflect your experiences?

What other trends or issues do you see? Anticipated hiring Opportunities, threats Skill or credential “gaps”?


39

Beyond the Data

Career ladders and lattices Job stability (e.g., cyclical industries) Student demand Employer engagement


40

Some Tools Commerce/Labor & Economic Analysis:

www.nccommerce.com/lead AccessNC (business, community data)

Demand driven data delivery (D4) - labor force stats

Wage data by occupation (U.S., state, sub-state): http://www.careeronestop.org/SalariesBenefits/

NC Works Online: www.ncworks.gov Career ladder/lattice tools (O*NET): http://

www.onetcenter.org/ladders.html

http://www.nccommerce.com/lead

http://www.careeronestop.org/SalariesBenefits/

http://www.careeronestop.org/SalariesBenefits/

http://www.ncworks.gov/

http://www.onetcenter.org/ladders.html

http://www.onetcenter.org/ladders.html


QUESTIONS?

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION:

Anne BaconSenior Workforce Analyst

Labor & Economic Analysis DivisionNC Department of Commerce

[email protected](919)707-1579

(919)707-1500 (main)

mailto:[email protected]

alleghany ashe wilkes pathways to prosperity lmi data

Education

manufacturing industry

large industry sectors

county differences industry

food services arts

waste management

nc department of commerce4

bureau of labor statistics

technical services real