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“Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American and Latino students, it’s closer to one in three.” Graduation Matters: Improving Accountability for High School Graduation, by Daria Hall Change the Prediction One student at a time

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Page 1: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

“Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American and Latino students, it’s closer to one in three.”

Graduation Matters: Improving Accountability

for High School Graduation, by Daria Hall

Change the PredictionOne student at a time

Page 2: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Jessie Joubert, Edgear/JPams Consultant

Brenda Joubert, SREB School Improvement Consultant

Ralph Thibodeaux, Deputy Director, HS Redesign, LA DOE

Dropout Early Warning: Who, What, When, and How

Page 3: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Overview of Research

Identify students to target◦ Data in Student Information Systems◦ Identifying students using data

Interventions◦ Identifying interventions◦ Planning for interventions to occur

Plan of Action

Page 4: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Dropouts are much more likely than their peers who graduate to be:

Unemployed Living in poverty Receiving public assistance In prison Unhealthy Divorced Single parents with children who drop out from

high school themselvesThe Silent Epidemic John M. Bridgeland, John J. DiIulio, Jr., Karen Burke Morison. March 2006

The Picture is Bleak for Dropouts

Page 5: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

A Growing Prison Population75 Percent Of State Prison Inmates And 59 Percent Of Federal Inmates Are High-school Dropouts.

Increasing Welfare Costs A Limited Labor Supply For An Economy With

An Increasing Appetite For Educated Workers For American society, the annual cost of providing for

youth who fail to complete high school and their families is $76 billion/year – or approximately $800 for each taxpayer in states and localities across the country

One-third of a Nation: Rising Dropout Rates and

Declining Opportunities, ETS, February 2006

The Picture is Bleak for Dropouts

Page 6: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Graduates are more likely to be:

Employed Self sustaining Productive Citizens Healthy In good relationships Raise productive children

The Picture is Brighter for Graduates

Page 7: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Dropouts Identify

Five Major Factors For Leaving School

1. 47% Classes not interesting 2. 43% Missed too many days, could not catch up3. 42% Spent time with people disinterested in

school4. 38% Had too much freedom & not enough rules5. 35% Was failing in school

The Silent Epidemic John M. Bridgeland, John J. DiIulio, Jr.,

Karen Burke Morison. March 2006

Page 8: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

69 % said they were not motivated or inspired to work hard,

66% would have worked harder if more was expected of them (higher academic standards and more studying or homework),

37 % said that “failing in school” was a major factor for dropping out;

62 % missed class often the year before dropping out.

National Center For Dropout Prevention

Who are these dropouts?

Page 9: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Grade Level of Dropouts

Source: Ed Week: EPE Research Center 2006

Page 10: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

In hindsight, dropouts are almost universally remorseful for having left school.

About ¾ of dropouts indicate they would have remained in school if they could relive the experience.

74% of dropouts would re-enter school if they could attend in alternative settings with age-level peers.

SOURCE: The Silent Epidemic, Civic Enterprises, March 2006

Regrets

Page 11: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs

12

Best Self

Esteem BelongingSecurity

Physiological Need

Page 12: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Research by Louisiana DOE determined ninth grade is the critical year when students drop out, but mental dropping out begins long before physical withdrawal from school.

Early Identification & Intervention is Key

Page 13: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Early Predictors of Failure to Graduate Each 8th grade course failure increases the odds

of non-promotion from 9th to 10th grade by 16%

Students who are 15 years of age or older when they enter high school

Although 8th-grade test scores are good predictors of students’ likelihood to do well in high school courses, course attendance is eight times more predictive of course failure in the freshman year

Education Commission of the States; 2008

Page 14: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

15

6th Grade ResearchAcademic AchievementCourse failure is a better indicator of not graduating than low test scores.

1. Failing Math (for the year) in 6th grade2. Failing English (for the year) in 6th grade

AttendanceWhen attendance dips below 80% (36 days or more/ year), 75% or more of these students don’t graduate.

Balfanz & Mac Iver, Johns HopkinsHerzog, Philadelphia Education Fund

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16

6th Grade Research

SuspensionsOnly 20% who receive one or more suspensions in 6th grade graduate within a year of on-time graduation.

Behavior grades predict half of the school/district’s future nongraduates.

Unsatisfactory behavior magnifies the damaging effects of course failure on students’ prospects of graduating!

Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver,

Johns Hopkins, Philadelphia Education Fund

Page 16: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Every grade level should work with students who exhibit at risk behaviors:

AbsenteeismLow gradesPoor disciplineOverage

Identify Students in Need

Page 17: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

TAKE ACTION

NOW!

Page 18: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Specific Interventions target needs:AbsenteeismLow gradesPoor disciplineOverage

Target Assistance

Page 19: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Identify Students to Target

Automatic Email NotificationsQuery Of At Risk Students

Looking at the Work

Page 20: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Dropout Early Warning System DEWS

What is DEWS?

Reporting system that identifies potential dropouts and brings these students to the attention of school, district, and state personnel.

Page 21: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Identifies 8th – 12th grade students who are:

Over age by two years Absenteeism ≥ 10% of days enrolled Discipline ≥ 7% of days enrolled Grades

◦Current GPA drop of 1.5 or more from previous GPA > 2.0

◦Current GPA drop of .5 or more from previous GPA ≤ 2.0

◦Current GPA ≤ 1.0

Essential Elements of DEWS Reports

Page 22: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Automatic Email on the 1st and 15th of each month

Sent to ◦ School Principal◦ Assistant Principal◦ Counselor◦ District Superintendent

Includes◦ Comprehensive list of students showing at risk

information◦ New students who meet criteria is sent daily

Student Detail Listings

Page 23: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Student Detail Listings

Blocked for confidentiality

Days absent

# of referrals

Current GPA

Previous GPA

SBLC referrals

SBLC meetings

Page 24: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

DEWS District Tables

Automatic Email on the 1st and 15th of each Month

Delivered to ◦ School Principals◦ Assistant Principals◦ District Superintendent

Two Reports◦ Counts of 9th graders for each site by at risk indicators◦ Counts of 8th – 12th graders for each site by at risk

indicators

Page 25: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

DEWS District Tables

Page 26: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

DEWS District Tables

Page 27: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

DEWS Statewide Table

Automatic Email on the 1st and 15th of each month

Delivered to

◦ LA Dept of Education State Superintendent

◦ Selected DOE Staff

Includes◦ Counts of 8th–12th grade students by district by at

risk indicators.

Page 28: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

DEWS Statewide Table

Page 29: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Report GenerationDEWS automatic emails are broad in

nature. To target assistance, more information is needed.

Reports On-Demand (SBLC/DEWS/District DEWS)

Allows for Investigation of student details Grades Discipline Attendance Test scores

Page 30: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Report Generation

Cell click a count or name to display

further detail.

Page 31: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Tracking Interventions

SBLC Student Details (SBLC/Find1)

Reason for Referral

Recommended Interventions

SBLC Meetings Minutes

SBLC School Trends Report (SBLC/Trends/SBLC Referral Intervention Trends)

Referrals by Type

Interventions

Page 32: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Interventions CompilationTutorial Services Homework hotline Teacher assistance Peer tutoring program Special class

Teaming Ninth-grade teams Regular team meetings Notifying teacher or other

professionals

Classroom Adjustment Ability grouping Smaller class sizes Freshman-only classes Extended day Credit Recovery

Alternative Program Options In school

suspensions/expulsions Alternative site Alternative school

Parent/Guardian Notification

Progress reports Report cards Attendance letter Phone calls Parent Command Center

Parent/Guardian Conference

Meeting with parents/guardians to discuss intervention actions

Judicial Truancy court Pre court conferences TASC Home visits FINS Marine Institute Boot camp

Positive Behavior SWPBS DARE

Counseling School Based Professional treatment Conference with

student Mental health services Verified not at risk

Special Services Referral to pupil

appraisal Special education

referral Behavior plan

Mentoring Pairs students with

adults and or students Buddy System Natural helpers

Other Miscellaneous category

Page 33: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Referrals/Interventions by School

Page 34: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Detail of Referrals/Interventions

Page 35: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Interventions Identifying Effective InterventionsPlanning For Interventions To Occur

Monitoring And Adjusting Interventions

Looking at the Work

Page 36: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Referrals/Interventions by School

Page 37: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Detail of Referrals/Interventions

Page 38: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Early Warning System and Interventions

Rigor-Relevance-RelationshipsPresenterRalph Thibodeaux

Page 39: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Improve the Graduation Rate

Improve GPA

Improve Attendance

Improve Discipline

Improve ILEAP/GEE Scores

Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

ReDesign Goals

Page 40: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

SUCCESS IS A JOURNEY…

NOT A DESTINATION.

Page 41: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

•History • Why an Early Warning System• Early Warning Indicators• Example of Reports• Utilization of the Early Warning System• Programs for all Students• Interventions for Individual Students• Goals of the Early Warning System

Objectives

Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

Page 42: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

228

-52 184176

Data for the Graduating Class of

2005This is a

19.3% loss of students.

Why do we need an Early Warning System and

Interventions?

StartingFreshman

Graduating Seniors

Passed to Sophomore

Most of which happened in the

first year

Page 43: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Warning Indicators

‣Discipline for year and/or current term

‣Attendance for year and/or current term

‣Grade Point Average

‣Decline in Grade Point Average

Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

Page 44: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Early Warning Report

Page 45: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Utilization of Early Warning System

‣Principal‣Assistant

Principals‣School

Counselors‣Freshman Teams

‣All Grade levelsRigor-Relevance-Relationships

Page 46: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

‣Scheduled a Team Meeting

‣Created a list of all Interventions/Programs/Strategies from the Model Schools Conference plus prior knowledge

‣Divided into small groups to create each level

‣Together reached a consensus on all levels

Development of the Interventions/Programs/St

rategies

Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

Page 47: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Early Preparation Programs Multi-Level Comprehensive

Interventions Celebrate Success High Expectations

Interventions/Programs/Strategies

Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

Page 48: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Freshman Parent Night

Progress Report 3rd Week of each 6 Weeks

1st Contact Phone Call

Advisory Room “Making High

School Count” Freshman

Orientation Day Spring 8th Grade

Tour Spring 8th Grade

Parent Meeting Spring Letters from

9th graders to 8th graders

Freshman of the Month

Special Renaissance Reward (9th Ice Cream, etc.)

Achievements Posted Honors Contracts Parent Command

Center “Capturing Kids’

Hearts” M.B. Flippen “I” Contracts Reteach/Retest Pilot

in Math Future Academy Ideas

Level 1 Interventions

Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

Page 49: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Teacher/Student Conference Follow-up Parent Phone Call Voluntary Tutoring Talk to Advisory Room Teacher

and Team Teachers Web/Computer Review and Skills

Development

Level 2 Interventions

Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

Page 50: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Parent Teacher Conference

Signing of Planners Nightly

Parent Letters Sent Home

Mid-term “Possible Failure” Letter

Level 3 Interventions

Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

Page 51: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Mandatory After-School Tutoring“Wildcat Conductor”Counselor WatchJr./Sr. Mentor / E-MentorsParent Calls and LettersPeer Teacher ObservationTeam Parent Conference

Level 4 Interventions

Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

Page 52: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Parent/Counselor/Administration Conference

FINS Recommendation504/SPED RecommendationReview Academic Options and Programs

Level 5 Interventions

Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

Page 53: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Level 1

Level 4

Level 3

Level 2

Level 5

The Final Product

Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

Early Warning System

Page 54: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Collect data from previous graduation classes

Determine indicators for different types of schools

Generate Early Warning Program reports by applying the previous year’s statistics to current students

The Future??

Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

Page 55: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Willard R. Daggett Ed.D

Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

“Good is the Enemy of Great.”

Page 56: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Jessie Joubert, Edgear/Jpams Consultant,

[email protected] Brenda Joubert, SREB School Improvement

Consultant, [email protected] Ralph Thibodeaux, Deputy Director, HSR, LA

DOE, [email protected]

Dropout Early Warning: Who, What, When, and How

mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
Page 57: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Take This Home

Looking at the Work

Page 58: Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American

Research John Hopkins University Research The Silent Epidemic National Center for Educational Statistics Longitudinal local and state student data

◦ Attendance◦ Discipline◦ Test scores◦ Graduation rates

Plan Use data to guide reports

◦ Louisiana research guides JPams DEWS and other SIS Reports◦ Your state research can guide what items are also on the “list”

Determine methods of intervention based on student needs

You Can Too…


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