alok industries limited -...

Firstcall India Equity Advisors Pvt Ltd 1

Alok Industries Limited

BUY Target Price: Rs.35.00

CMP: Rs.23.50 Market Cap. : Rs.14219.38mn.

Date: January 7th

, 2010

Key Ratios:

Particulars FY09

(12 m)

FY10E

(12 m)

FY11E

(12 m)

OPM (%) 26 29 29

NPM (%) 7 6 7

ROE (%) 14 12 13

ROCE (%) 7 9 10

P/BV(x) 0.35 0.72 0.62

P/E(x) 2.64 5.79 4.60

EV/EBDITA(x) 0.59 1.36 1.32

Debt equity ratio 4.96 3.66 3.48

Key Data:

Sector Diversified

Face Value Rs.10.00

52 wk. High/Low Rs.29.50/11.55

Volume (2 wk. Avg.) 3136000

BSE Code 521070

SYNOPSIS

• Alok Industries is a vertically integrated textile

company with five business divisions.

• Alok Industries has business interest in retail as well

as real estate.

• The company has plans to book profits from its real

estate investments and to focus on its core

business. This will help the company pay off its

debt significantly.

• Alok Industries to convert 7th lot of shares as fully

paid up shares.

• CARE reaffirmed the A rating assigned to the Long-

term Bank Facilities of Alok Industries (Alok)

aggregating Rs 68,455.8 million.

• The company has currently 70 retail stores and has

plans to increase the number of retail stores to

1000 in next five years.

• The company’s Net sales and PAT is expected to

grow at a CAGR of 29% and 16% over FY08 to

FY11E.

Share Holding Pattern:

V.S.R. Sastry

Vice President

Equity Research Desk

91-22-25276077

[email protected]

Dr. V.V.L.N. Sastry Ph.D.

Chief Research Officer

[email protected]


Table of Content

Content Page No.

1. Investment Highlights 03

2. Peer Group Comparison 05

3. Key Concerns 06

4. Financials 06

5. Charts & Graph 08

6. Outlook and Conclusion 11

7. Industry Overview 12


Investment Highlights • Result Updates (Q2FY10)

For the second quarter, the top line of the company increased 40%YoY and stood at

Rs.9747.90mn against Rs.6981.40mn of the same period of the last year. The bottom line

of the company for the quarter stood at Rs.570.00mn from Rs.421.50mn of the

corresponding period of the previous year i.e., an increase of 35%YoY.

EPS of the company for the quarter stood at Rs.0.94 for equity share of Rs.10.00 each.


Expenditure for the quarter stood at Rs.6838.90mn, which is around 30% higher than the

corresponding period of the previous year. . Raw material cost of the company for the

quarter accounts for 40% of the sales of the company and stood at Rs.3851.20mn.

Employee cost increased 23%YoY to Rs.332.50mn from Rs.269.50mn. and accounts for 3%

of the revenue of the company for the quarter.

OPM and NPM for the quarter stood at 30% and 6% respectively from 25% and 6%

respectively of the same period of the last year. Export sales for the quarter ended 30

Sep., 2009 stood at Rs 3,187.7 million, as against Rs 2,611.6 million in the same period of

the last fiscal, registering a growth of 22.06%.


• Time has come to book profits from realty investment

The company has plans to book profits from its real estate investments and to focus on its

core business. This will help the company pay off its debt significantly. Alok Industries

carries out its real estate business via its realty arm Alok Infra which is a 100% owned

subsidiary of the company.

• Care reaffirms `A` rating to Alok Industries

Credit rating agency, CARE reaffirmed the A rating assigned to the Long-term Bank

Facilities of Alok Industries (Alok) aggregating Rs 68,455.8 million.

This rating is applicable to facilities having tenure of over one year. Facilities with this

rating are considered to offer adequate safety for timely servicing of debt obligations and

with this rating would have strong capacity for timely payment of short-term debt

obligations and carry lowest credit risk. Further, CARE also reaffirmed the PR1 rating

assigned to the Short-term Bank Facilities of the company aggregating Rs 10,318 million.

• Alok Industries to convert 7th

lot of shares as fully paid up shares

The company has approved the conversion of 7th lot comprising of 46,227 partly paid

rights equity shares into fully paid equity shares of Rs 10 each pursuant to receipt of full

and final call money of Rs. 5 per equity share from the holders of such partly paid shares.

Peer Group Comparison

Name of the

company

CMP(Rs.)

(As on

January

7th

,2010)

Market Cap.

(Rs. Mn.)

EPS

(Rs.)

P/E (x) P/BV

(x)

Dividend

(%)

Alok industries

limited 23.50 14219.38 3.41 7.33 0.70 7.50

Garden silk mills

limited 81.35 3114.90 18.84 4.32 0.72 15.00

Siyaram silks limited 159.05 1490.60 21.10 7.54 1.05 50.00


Key Concerns

• Recession in global economy

• Fluctuations in exchange rates

• High competition from global players

• Adverse Govt. policies

Financials

Results Update

12 months ended Profit and Loss A/C (Standalone):

Value(Rs in million) FY08A FY09A FY10E FY11E

Description 12m 12m 12m 12m

Net Sales 21,704.10 29,663.80 40046.13 46053.05

Other Income 679.40 182.40 60.82 66.90

Total Income 22,383.50 29,846.20 40106.95 46119.95

Expenditure -16,469.80 -22,063.10 -28432.75 -32697.67

Operating Profit 5,913.70 7,783.10 11674.20 13422.29

Interest -1,318.20 -2,453.90 -4716.39 -5188.03

Gross Profit 4,595.50 5,329.20 6957.81 8234.26

Depreciation -1,619.60 -2,476.10 -3293.21 -3622.53

Profit before Tax 2,975.90 2,853.10 3664.59 4611.72

Tax -989.3 -891.9 -1209.32 -1521.87


Profit after Tax 1,986.60 1,961.20 2455.28 3089.85

Extraordinary Items - -82.00 - -

Net Profit 1,986.60 1,879.20 2455.28 3089.85

Equity Capital 1,871.70 1,969.70 6050.80 6050.80

Reserves 11,274.50 11,340.10 13795.38 16885.23

Face Value 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00

Total No. of Shares 187.17 196.97 605.08 605.08

EPS 10.61 9.54 4.06 5.11

Quarterly ended Profit and Loss A/C (Standalone):

Value(Rs. in million) 31-Mar-09 30-Jun-09 30-Sep-09 31-Dec-09E

Description 3m 3m 3m 3m

Net Sales 9083.90 7862.80 9747.90 10917.65

Other Income 163.60 2.60 9.60 10.56

Total Income 9247.50 7865.40 9757.50 10928.21

Expenditure -6678.30 -5712.70 -6838.90 -7659.57

Operating Profit 2569.20 2152.70 2918.60 3268.64

Interest -824.40 -885.60 -1221.70 -1295.00

Gross Profit 1744.80 1267.10 1696.90 1973.64

Depreciation -753.70 -783.90 -846.10 -905.33

Profit before Tax 991.10 483.20 850.80 1068.31


Tax -279.20 -164.20 -279.70 -351.21

Profit after Tax 711.90 319.00 571.10 717.10

Extraordinary Items -10.90 1.10 -1.10 -

Net Profit 701.00 320.10 570.00 717.10

Equity Capital 1969.70 5236.90 6050.80 6050.80

Face Value 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00

Total No. of Shares 196.97 523.69 605.08 605.08

EPS 3.56 0.61 0.94 1.19

Charts

• Net sales & PAT


• P/E Ratio (x)

• P/BV (X)


• EV/EBITDA(X)

1 Year Comparative Graph

Alok industries ltd BSE SENSEX


Outlook and Conclusion • At the market price of Rs.23.50, the stock is trading at 5.79 x and 4.60 x for FY10E and FY11E

respectively.

• On the basis of EV/EBDITA, the stock trades at 1.36 x for FY10E and 1.32 x for FY11E.

• Price to book value of the company is expected to be at 0.72 x and 0.62x for FY10E and FY11E

respectively.

• As the Equity capital has increased, EPS of the company is expected to be at Rs.4.06 and

Rs.5.11 for the earnings of FY10E and FY11E respectively.

• The top line and bottom line of the company is expected to grow at a CAGR of 29% and 16%

respectively over FY08 to FY11E.

• The company has plans to book profits from its real estate investments and to focus on its

core business. This will help the company pay off its debt significantly. Alok Industries carries

out its real estate business via its realty arm Alok Infra which is a 100% owned subsidiary of

the company.

• Credit rating agency, CARE reaffirmed the A rating assigned to the Long-term Bank Facilities of

Alok Industries (Alok) aggregating Rs 68,455.8 million.

• The company has approved the conversion of 7th lot comprising of 46,227 partly paid rights

equity shares into fully paid equity shares of Rs 10 each pursuant to receipt of full and final

call money of Rs. 5 per equity share from the holders of such partly paid shares.

• The company has plans to open 500 retail stores in next three years. We expect this will help

the company to become a large name in retail sector. To aid this, the company has recently

completed the capacity expansion of its facilities.

• The company’s strategy to make the most of its positioning & the huge global business

opportunity by smartly expanding its capacities at very low cost of borrowings, largely under

the TUF scheme (Technology Up gradation Scheme) has worked very well off late. Moreover,

most of its expansions have gone on stream this year.

• We recommend ‘BUY’ this stock with a target price of Rs.35.00 for long term perspective.


Industry Overview

Indian textile industry contributes about 14 percent to industrial production, 4 percent to the

country's gross domestic product (GDP) and 16.63 percent to export earnings. Exports form over

40 per cent of the country’s total production of the textiles sector, the biggest employment

generator after agriculture sector and are expected to generate 12 million new jobs by 2010. The

sector targets US$ 6 billion foreign direct investment (FDI) by 2015 to be invested in green field

units in textiles machinery, fabric and garment manufacturing, as well as technical textiles.

India has made inroads into the markets of its key competitors which include Asian countries

such as Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Cambodia. The Indian textile and apparel industry is

taking a new course by entering the Chinese market. Most of the top global apparel retailers,

such as JC Penny, Nautica, Docker and Target, have their sourcing network in India. Indian textiles

and apparel exports, which is worth US$ 22 billion, is expected to register a four-fold increase to

touch US$ 90 to 100 billion in the next 25 years.

Technical Textile Segment

Technical textiles segment is expected to employ over 300,000 additional workers increasing the

total employment in the sector to 1.2 million by the year 2012. The Government has set up four

Centres of Excellence (CoEs) for Meditech, Agrotech, Geotech and Protech group of technical

textile, providing one-stop facilities for testing, human resource development and research and

development.

Government Initiative

The Government has announced the release of a subsidy of US$ 533.87 million for the textile

industry under the Technology Upgradation Fund scheme (TUFs). The government extends 10 per

cent capital subsidy and 5 per cent interest subsidy on installation of machineries and for

processing machinery under the TUFS. A 41-member Working Group has also been announced to

be set up with a National Fibre Policy, to ensure self-sufficiency in fibre consumption and export

requirements in India.

The Textiles Committee has also been reconstituted in order to ensure standard quality of textiles

both for internal marketing as well as exports. The committee will also establish laboratories and

test houses for testing of textiles.

In addition, an online marketing and sales portal has also been launched by the textile minister.

The e-marketing platform, developed by the Central Cottage Industries Corporation of India and

the Handicraft and Handlooms Export Corporation of India, will host more than 1,000 wide

ranging handicrafts and handlooms products. It will also provide online services, such as e-

payment facility through major debit/credit card as swell as online tracking of the shipment.


The Kerala Industrial Infrastructure Development Corporation (Kinfra) has started allotment of

land for setting up units at the Textile Centre at Nadukani in the Kannur district. The Textile

Centre is conceived as a comprehensive textiles industries park under Kinfra International

Apparel Park. It is being developed with financial assistance under the Textile Centre

Infrastructure Development Scheme (TCIDS) of the Union Government.

The Taiwan Textile Federation in association with the Bureau of Foreign Trade, Taiwan, recently

exhibited a range of trendy and high performance textile products at Tirupur. Silk Fab 2009, a

national level exhibition and sale of handloom silk products, inaugurated by the textile minister

showcased handloom silk products and garments from over 15 states.

Advantage India

India offers cheaper production and marketing costs and enormous opportunities that have

tempted Taiwanese companies to work on joint ventures with Indian companies, especially for

the manufacture of manmade fabrics. Several European textile and textile machinery

manufacturing companies have shown interest in sourcing garments from India. Textile

companies were keen to set up base in India due to the cheap labour available here. India offers

various incentives like low-cost labour and intellectual right protection to foreign investors. The

country allows 100 per cent FDI in the textiles sector.

Investments

Indian textile companies are expanding their manufacturing facilities to industrial fabrics to tap

new customers in the construction, automobiles and healthcare sectors, who are currently

importing these products. Some of the major global luxury apparel retailers are eyeing markets

like India. According to industry analysts, the market for luxury and premium brands in India is

estimated at about US$ 1.3 billion - US$ 1.5 billion and growing at about 25-30 per cent.

Taiwanese manufacturers have come to woo the Indian textile industry with special items like

yoga fabrics and don't-need-to-wash denim. Some Taiwanese companies are exploring the

possibilities of selling their high-end fabrics in India and also looking for joint venture

opportunities to set up manufacturing facilities here. The Taiwan Textile Federation organised a

two-day textile fair in Bangalore as well as Tirupur just recently.

• The Tirupur-based US$ 91.42 million Royal Classic Group (RCG) has launched two high

fashion t-shirt brands - Fresco and Ce-10 — for the domestic market.

• Retail apparel firm Koutons India plans to open 100 new stores by fiscal.

• Alok Industries, S Kumars Nationwide, Jindal Cotex and SRF are keen to expand

theirfootprint.

• Ludhiana-based Jindal Cotex is investing US$ 49.6 million in two units in Himachal Pradesh

to make medical and industrial textiles.


• S Kumars Group tied up with the Italian brand Oviesse this year and targets to tie up with

several other international brands. The group projects to invest 10 billion rupees over the

next 5 years to set up new technical textiles facilities in India. It will introduce three

international brands by the end of this fiscal.

• Tyre cord maker SRF Ltd is setting up a plant for laminated fabrics in Kashipur in

Uttarakhand.

• Shoppers Stop, which had launched foreign brands like MAC, Mothercare and Austin Reed

among a range of other global brands, plans to add about several other international

labels soon. It is also set to launch Playboy brand of unisex wear.

• Arvind Brands, which has a licence to market premium segment men's wear brands such

as Arrow and Gant, has launched ‘Izod’ in India, a label of global apparel firm Van Heusen.

In line with others, Murjani Group that brought brands like Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger,

Gloria Vanderbilt and French connection funky wears for youngsters FCUK, has also

launched an online sales service for the brand.

• Mumbai-based real estate developer Ackruti City plans to set up an US$ 65.19 million

textile park on 60 acres in suburban Biwandi near here. A special purpose vehicle has

been created for the purpose. The project will be eligible for an US$ 8.69 million central

subsidy as it comes under the Textile Ministry's scheme for integrated textile parks.

Exemptions for power, stamp paper waiver and Octroi exemption of up to 100 per cent of

fixed capital are other incentives that the unit holders are eligible for.

• Raymond Ltd is planning to target revenues of US$ 42.69 million with the launch of 300

more retail shops by March 2011. With plans to reach 712 towns, Raymond intends

adding 50 new stores every quarter. In the past month, it launched 50 outlets in Agartala,

Rourkela, Sinnar and elsewhere.

The Road Ahead

Apparel Export Promotion Council (AEPC), which comes under Union Ministry of Textiles has

undertaken the task of attracting foreign direct investment by showcasing the huge untapped

domestic market in India. The AEPC highlighted the conducive environment for manufacturing in

the sector and raised the slogan of "come, invest, produce and sell in India", coined by Textiles

Minister, Mr Dayanidhi Maran. The ministry has plans to take delegations to Switzerland, Italy

and Istanbul in phase one from October this year followed by visits to France, Germany and the

US in the second phase.

The government strategizes to attract foreign investments in the textile sector by initiating trade

talks with manufacturers and business groups in Switzerland, Italy and Turkey. The aim is to tap

foreign capital towards establishing green field units in textiles machinery, fabric and garment

manufacturing and attracting investments in the field of technical textiles. India offers various

incentives to foreign investors like low-cost labour and intellectual right protection. The

government has allowed 100 per cent FDI in the textiles sector. India has a vertical and horizontal

integrated textiles value chain, and represents a strong presence in the entire value chain from

raw materials to finished goods.


Retail Industry

The Indian retail market, which is the fifth largest retail destination globally, has been ranked as

the most attractive emerging market for investment in the retail sector by AT Kearney's eighth

annual Global Retail Development Index (GRDI), in 2009. The share of retail trade in the country's

gross domestic product (GDP) was between 8–10 per cent in 2007. It is currently around 12 per

cent, and is likely to reach 22 per cent by 2010.

With rising consumer demand and greater disposable income, the US$ 400 billion Indian retail

sector is clocking an annual growth rate of 30 per cent. It is projected to grow to US$ 700 billion

by 2010, according to a report by global consultancy Northbridge Capital. The organised business

is expected to be 20 per cent of the total market by then. In 2008, the share of organised retail

was 7.5 per cent or US$ 300 million of the total retail market.

A McKinsey report, 'The rise of Indian Consumer Market', estimates that the Indian consumer

market is likely to grow four times by 2025. Commercial real estate services company, CB Richard

Ellis' findings state that India's retail market has moved up to the 39th most preferred retail

destination in the world in 2009, up from 44 last year.

Banks, capital goods, engineering, fast moving consumer goods (FMCG), software services, oil,

marketing, power, two-wheelers and telecom companies are leading the sales and profit growth

of India Inc in the fourth quarter of 2008-09. India continues to be among the most attractive

countries for global retailers. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows as on September 2009, in

single-brand retail trading, stood at approximately US$ 47.43 million, according to the

Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP).

India's overall retail sector is expected to rise to US$ 833 billion by 2013 and to US$ 1.3 trillion by

2018, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10 per cent. As a democratic country with

high growth rates, consumer spending has risen sharply as the youth population (more than 33

percent of the country is below the age of 15) has seen a significant increase in its disposable

income. Consumer spending rose an impressive 75 per cent in the past four years alone. Also,

organised retail, which is pegged at around US$ 8.14 billion, is expected to grow at a CAGR of 40

per cent to touch US$ 107 billion by 2013.

The organised retail sector, which currently accounts for around 5 per cent of the Indian retail

market, is all set to witness maximum number of large format malls and branded retail stores in

South India, followed by North, West and the East in the next two years. Tier II cities like Noida,

Amritsar, Kochi and Gurgaon, are emerging as the favoured destinations for the retail sector with

their huge growth potential.


Further, this sector is expected to invest around US$ 503.2 million in retail technology service

solutions in the current financial year. This could go further up to US$ 1.26 billion in the next four

to five years, at a CAGR of 40 per cent.

India has emerged the third most attractive market destination for apparel retailers, according to

a study by global management consulting firm AT Kearney. The Northbridge Capital report states

that apparel is the "largest organised retail category", accounting for 39 per cent of the organised

market. It is growing at the rate of 12 to 15 per cent annually. Organised apparel retail is

projected to touch US$ 200 million by 2010 from the current worth of US$ 120 million, the report

noted.

Experts agree that apparel, along with food and grocery, is leading the growth of organised

retailing in India. The results of the past quarter support these findings.

Buoyed by improved consumer spending, sales of listed retailers increased by 12 per cent in the

September 2009 quarter compared with the same period in 2008. This is higher than the 8.2 per

cent posted in the June 2009 quarter. While the previous quarter saw value retailers such as

Koutons Retail and Pantaloon leading sales recovery, this time around, sales of lifestyle and

premium retailers led the growth trend. Two out of every three retailers managed an increase of

at least 10 per cent, compared to about one in three in the June 2009 quarter.

Premium players such as Shoppers' Stop and Gitanjali Gems clocked strong growth of 11 and 31.7

per cent, respectively. Shoppers' Stop saw same-store sales growth move back into positive

territory at 1.8 per cent. Operating profit margins moved up steadily to 9.93 per cent, almost a

122 per cent improvement since the December 2008 quarter.

• Luxury Goods Retail, which currently sells its products in India under a franchise

agreement, has been allowed to directly retail Gucci products in the country. Gucci Group

NV, Netherlands is investing US$ 225,867 to pick up 51 per cent stake in the venture.

• Australia's Retail Food Group is planning to enter the Indian market in 2010. It has

ambitious investment plans which aim to clock revenue of US$ 87 million from the

country within five years from start of operations. In 20 years, they expect the Indian

operations to be bigger than their Australian business.

• Lifestyle International, part of the Dubai-based US$ 1.5 billion Landmark Group, plans to

have over 50 stores across India by 2012–13. These will include 35 Lifestyle stores for

retailing apparel, cosmetics and footwear, besides 15 Home Centres that sell home

furnishing goods.

• Watch maker, Timex India, is looking at increasing its presence in the country by adding

another 52 stores by March 2011 at an investment of US$ 1.3 million taking its total store

count to 120. The company has recorded revenue of US$ 15.9 million and a net profit of

US$ 1.2 million, during the first six months of the current fiscal, ending September 30,

2009.


• Wills Lifestyle plans to expand its operations by opening 100 new stores in the next three

years. It also plans to concentrate on online buyers.

• Pantaloon Retail India (PRIL) is planning to invest US$ 77.88 million this fiscal to add up to

2.4 million sq ft retail space at its existing operations. Pantaloon Retail is also looking to

hive off its value retail chain, Big Bazaar, into a separate subsidiary, which may eventually

go for an initial public offer (IPO). PRIL proposes to open 155 Big Bazaar stores by 2014,

increasing its total network to 275 stores.

• Aditya Birla Retail which operates the More chain of supermarkets and hypermarkets is

scaling up its private labels business as an independent strategic business unit (SBU) and

profit centre. This may be spun off as a separate entity as private labels business account

for over 19-20 per cent sales of More supermarkets and hypermarkets.

Policy Initiatives

• 100 per cent FDI is allowed in cash-and-carry wholesale formats. Franchisee arrangements

are also permitted in retail trade.

• 51 per cent FDI is allowed in single-brand retailing.

Road Ahead

According to industry experts, the next phase of growth is expected to come from rural markets.

According to a new market research report by RNCOS titled, 'Booming Retail Sector in India',

organised retail market in India is expected to reach US$ 50 billion by 2011.

• Number of shopping malls is expected to increase at a CAGR of more than 18.9 per cent

from 2007 to 2015.

• Rural market is projected to dominate the retail industry landscape in India by 2012 with

total market share of above 50 per cent.

• Organised retailing of mobile handset and accessories is expected to reach close to US$

990 million by 2010.

• Driven by the expanding retail market, the third party logistics market is forecasted to

reach US$ 20 billion by 2011.

____________________________________________________________

Disclaimer:

This document prepared by our research analysts does not constitute an offer or solicitation

for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any

transaction. The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources

believed to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should

not be relied on as such. Firstcall India Equity Advisors Pvt. Ltd. or any of it’s affiliates shall

not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any

inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. This document is provide for

assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an

investment decision.


Firstcall India Equity Research: Email – [email protected]

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