Alternatives toAgile Estimation

Neil Killick

@neil_killick #NoEstimates

neilkillick.com

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"As a software practitioner...

I want to shift focus onto delivering value to stakeholders & customers and away from estimating...

So that I am empowered to make the right decisions & build the right thing"

#NoEstimates is not refusing to estimate. It's about asking if there is a better way.

#NoEstimates

How long will this project take?How much will it cost?Should we go ahead?

Projects clump valuable things

What about emergent value?Welcoming change?

Where does value end?

How useful is an accurate estimate? Say $400-600k?

Let's consider a project with a real budgetary constraint

What can we build for $500k?

Fixed team, Time = Money$500k buys us 6 months

"Let's build something for $100k"

● Creativity

● Drip fund

● Deliver early & often

● Inspect & adapt

Small bets

The "project"

De-clump!

Prioritise intosmall releases

Release 1 (min slice thru requirements)

Release 2

Release 3+

Take top 2 or 3 stories from R1

Iteration 1The rest

Make stories "small" JIT

Don't get bogged down!

Natural to break down work into chunks when working in iterations

Learn how to do this effectively

How do we knowit's "small"?

1. Are there >1 acceptance criteria?

2. Are there >1 use cases or user scenarios?

3. What is the simplest technical solution (e.g. "hamburger method")

Slice n' DiceSmall = Simple, Unambiguous

Why not story points?

Risky to say "not small is OK"

Shifts focus from value to estimated cost

Getting better at estimating delivers no value

Velocity metric gets abused

Release scope going up?

Story points lull us into a

We value empirical measurementover Guesses

Counting storiesIn Progress DoneReady

Backlog(options) R1

Visualise Cycle TimeIn Progress DoneReady

Backlog(options)

2 wks

3 wks

4 wks

Cycle time = 7/5 = 1.5 weeks

R1

4

3

5+

Help PO understand the devastating impact of WIP

Constraints force DecisionsIn Progress DoneReady

Backlog(options)

2 wks

3 wks

4 wks

● Upcoming stories usually smaller● Work not done is only "options"● Until PO decides to implement, size

doesn't matter

?

?

R1

We valueDelivering over Estimating

● Tech infrastructure must support rapid delivery

● Capability crucial, despite biz reluctance to release

● Continuous delivery reduces "need" for estimatesDevOps

Towards #NoEstimates

● Small releases; Minimum features

● Don't accept >1 point; Slice n' Dice

● Shorten delivery cycles; Decisions

● Don't rely on estimates; Measure

Embrace the delicious uncertainty of software design and development

Make the uncertain... certain(delivery dates & cost)

Real constraints inspirecreative solutions to problems

Ask yourself why you estimate andwhat you use the estimates for

#NoEstimates

Hands up!Who here estimates?

Who chooses to estimate?Who doesn't estimate?

Questions?

● Portfolio level estimation● 5 potentially valuable projects,

only 1 team● How would you proceed without

estimates?● Volunteers to start