aluminum: competitive conditions affecting the u.s. industry · united states international trade...

United States International Trade Commission

Aluminum: Competitive Conditions Affecting the U.S. Industry

June 2017 Publication Number: 4703 Investigation Number: 332-557


Commissioners Rhonda K. Schmidtlein, Chairman

David S. Johanson, Vice Chairman

Irving A. Williamson

Meredith M. Broadbent

Catherine DeFilippo Director, Office of Operations

Jonathan Coleman Director, Office of Industries

Address all communications to Secretary to the Commission

United States International Trade Commission Washington, DC 20436



June 2017 Publication Number: 4703 Investigation Number: 332-557

United States International Trade Commission This report was prepared principally by

Co-Project Leaders

Karl Tsuji, [email protected] Mihir Torsekar, [email protected]

Office of Industries

Renee Berry, Mark Brininstool, Logan Cobb, Brian Daigle, Andrew David, Diana Friedman, David Guberman, Vincent Honnold, Mahnaz Khan, Gregory LaRocca, Kathryn Lundquist, Daniel Matthews, Deborah McNay, Jessica Pugliese, Mitchell Semanik, and Marin Weaver

Office of Economics

Andre Barbe, Alan Fox, and Ravinder Ubee

Office of Analysis and Research Robert Bauchspies, Maureen Letostak, David Lundy, Laura Thayn, and Wendy Willis

Office of Tariff Affairs and Trade Agreements

Janet Freas

Office of the General Counsel William Gearhart

Content Reviewers

John Fry and Wen Jin Yuan

Statistical Reviewer Jeremy Wise

Editorial Reviewer

Judy Edelhoff and Peg Hausman

Administrative Support Jaime Bruckman, Cynthia Payne, Monica Sanders, and Blair Williams

Special Assistance

Robert Feinberg

Interns Jared Angle, Renato Barredo, Robert Casanova, Sharifa Crawford, Pamela Davis,

Celia Feldpausch, Maeryn Goldman, Fernando Gracia, Matthew Hoff, Christopher Mitchell, KaDeadra McNealy, Thomas Ponikowski, Mary Roop, and Amanda Ryan

Office of the Chief Information Officer

Phyllis Boone and Shala Ewing

Help Desk and Customer Service Division

Under the direction of Robert Carr, Chief

Natural Resources and Energy Division Office of Industries

U.S. International Trade Commission | 1

Table of Contents Abbreviations and Acronyms ............................................................................ 21Glossary ............................................................................................................ 25Executive Summary .......................................................................................... 29Chapter 1 Introduction ...................................................................................... 43

Overview ................................................................................................................................... 43 Scope ......................................................................................................................................... 44 Approach ................................................................................................................................... 46 Information Sources ................................................................................................................. 47 Organization of the Report ....................................................................................................... 49 Overview of Aluminum Production Processes and Products ................................................... 49

Primary Unwrought Aluminum ............................................................................................. 51 Secondary Unwrought Aluminum ......................................................................................... 52 Alloyed and Unalloyed Aluminum ........................................................................................ 53 Wrought Aluminum .............................................................................................................. 54

Overview of Aluminum End Uses ............................................................................................. 56 Construction .......................................................................................................................... 57 Electrical ................................................................................................................................ 57 Transport ............................................................................................................................... 58 Packaging and Foil Stock ....................................................................................................... 59 Machinery and Equipment, Consumer Durables, and Other Products ................................ 59

Bibliography .............................................................................................................................. 60

Chapter 2 Global Overview ............................................................................... 65Overview of Global Production ................................................................................................. 67

Primary Unwrought Aluminum ............................................................................................. 67 Secondary Unwrought Aluminum ......................................................................................... 72 Wrought Aluminum .............................................................................................................. 73

Overview of Global Consumption ............................................................................................. 78 Primary Unwrought Aluminum ............................................................................................. 78 Wrought Aluminum .............................................................................................................. 79

Overview of Global Trade ......................................................................................................... 81 Unwrought Aluminum .......................................................................................................... 82 Wrought Aluminum .............................................................................................................. 85 Trade Flows through Third Countries ................................................................................... 88

Overview of Global Prices, Stocks, and Cost of Production ..................................................... 91 Prices ..................................................................................................................................... 91 Stocks .................................................................................................................................... 93

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Costs of Production ............................................................................................................... 96 Bibliography .............................................................................................................................. 97

Chapter 3 Cross-Country Comparison of Industry Competitiveness in Major Aluminum Producing Countries ...................................................................... 103

Overview of Key Competitive Factors..................................................................................... 103 Primary Unwrought Aluminum ........................................................................................... 104 Secondary Unwrought and Wrought Aluminum ................................................................ 105

Cross-Country Comparison of Competitive Factors ............................................................... 108 Primary Unwrought Aluminum ........................................................................................... 109 Secondary Unwrought and Wrought Aluminum ................................................................ 118

Bibliography ............................................................................................................................ 123

Chapter 4 United States .................................................................................. 129 Overview ................................................................................................................................. 129 Industry Structure ................................................................................................................... 131

Primary Unwrought Aluminum ........................................................................................... 131 Secondary Unwrought Aluminum ....................................................................................... 137 Wrought Aluminum ............................................................................................................ 142

Production............................................................................................................................... 148 Primary Unwrought Aluminum ........................................................................................... 148 Secondary Unwrought Aluminum ....................................................................................... 150 Wrought Aluminum ............................................................................................................ 151

Consumption ........................................................................................................................... 153 Unwrought Aluminum ........................................................................................................ 153 Wrought Aluminum ............................................................................................................ 154

Trade ....................................................................................................................................... 156 Unwrought Aluminum ........................................................................................................ 157 Wrought Aluminum ............................................................................................................ 158

Government Policies and Programs ....................................................................................... 161 Grants .................................................................................................................................. 162 Electricity Contracts ............................................................................................................ 162

Competitive Factors ................................................................................................................ 163 Primary Unwrought Aluminum ........................................................................................... 164 Secondary Unwrought Aluminum ....................................................................................... 166 Wrought Aluminum ............................................................................................................ 167

Bibliography ............................................................................................................................ 173

Chapter 5 Canada............................................................................................ 185 Overview ................................................................................................................................. 185 Industry Structure ................................................................................................................... 186

Primary Unwrought Aluminum ........................................................................................... 186



Secondary Unwrought Aluminum ....................................................................................... 191 Wrought Aluminum ............................................................................................................ 193



Trade ....................................................................................................................................... 197 Unwrought Aluminum ........................................................................................................ 198 Wrought Aluminum ............................................................................................................ 200 Import Injury Actions .......................................................................................................... 202

Government Policies and Programs ....................................................................................... 202 Quebec Provincial Policies .................................................................................................. 203 Tax and Tariff Policies ......................................................................................................... 203

Competitive Factors ................................................................................................................ 204 Cost Overview ..................................................................................................................... 205 Low Electric Power Costs Are the Key Competitive Advantage of Canadian Smelters ...... 206 Continuous Upgrading of Potline Technology Enhances Canadian Smelting Efficiency .... 208 Canadian Smelters Benefit from Proximity to Large U.S. Market ...................................... 208

Bibliography ............................................................................................................................ 210

Chapter 6 China .............................................................................................. 219 Overview ................................................................................................................................. 219 Industry Structure ................................................................................................................... 221

Primary Unwrought Aluminum ........................................................................................... 222 Secondary Unwrought Aluminum ....................................................................................... 228 Wrought Aluminum ............................................................................................................ 232


Consumption ........................................................................................................................... 242 Primary and Secondary Unwrought Aluminum .................................................................. 242 Wrought Aluminum ............................................................................................................ 243


Government Policies and Programs ....................................................................................... 253 Trade Policies ...................................................................................................................... 254

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Energy Policies .................................................................................................................... 256 Environmental Policies ........................................................................................................ 257 Financing ............................................................................................................................. 259 Tax Benefits ......................................................................................................................... 261 Grants .................................................................................................................................. 261 Low-priced Inputs Provided by State-Owned Enterprise ................................................... 262 Recent Efforts to Curb Overcapacity................................................................................... 263 Other ................................................................................................................................... 264 Issues Raised in Ongoing WTO and U.S. Antidumping and Countervailing Duty Investigations ...................................................................................................................... 265

Competitive Factors ................................................................................................................ 267 Primary Unwrought Aluminum ........................................................................................... 268 Secondary Unwrought Aluminum ....................................................................................... 274 Wrought Aluminum ............................................................................................................ 276

Bibliography ............................................................................................................................ 281

Chapter 7 Gulf Cooperation Council Countries ................................................ 303 Overview ................................................................................................................................. 303 Industry Structure ................................................................................................................... 304

Primary Unwrought Aluminum ........................................................................................... 304 Wrought Aluminum ............................................................................................................ 309

Production............................................................................................................................... 312 Primary Unwrought Aluminum ........................................................................................... 312 Wrought Aluminum ............................................................................................................ 313



Government Policies and Programs ....................................................................................... 323 Competitive Factors ................................................................................................................ 326

Cost Overview ..................................................................................................................... 327 Low Electricity Costs Are a Key Competitive Advantage for Primary Production .............. 328 Upstream Investments Assure Raw Material Supply for Smelters ..................................... 331 Efficiencies from Investment in New and Technologically Advanced Smelters ................. 332

Bibliography ............................................................................................................................ 334

Chapter 8 Russia ............................................................................................. 341 Overview ................................................................................................................................. 341 Industry Structure ................................................................................................................... 342

Primary Unwrought Aluminum ........................................................................................... 342



Secondary Unwrought Aluminum ....................................................................................... 345 Wrought Aluminum ............................................................................................................ 346



Trade ....................................................................................................................................... 354 Unwrought .......................................................................................................................... 354 Wrought .............................................................................................................................. 355

Government Policies and Programs ....................................................................................... 357 State Aluminum Reserve ..................................................................................................... 357 Investment Fund of the Russian Federation ....................................................................... 357 Scrap Export Duty................................................................................................................ 357 Unwrought Aluminum Export Duties .................................................................................. 358 Special Economic Zones ...................................................................................................... 359 Government Strategy to Develop Ferrous and Nonferrous Metallurgy ............................. 359

Competitive Factors ................................................................................................................ 360 Cost Overview ..................................................................................................................... 361 Low Electric Power Costs Are a Key Competitive Advantage ............................................. 362 Upstream Investments Assure Raw Material Supplies ....................................................... 363 Research and Development Leads to Technological Innovation ........................................ 363 Distance from Suppliers and Markets Raises Transportation Costs ................................... 365

Bibliography ............................................................................................................................ 366

Chapter 9 Europe ............................................................................................ 371 Overview ................................................................................................................................. 371 Industry Structure ................................................................................................................... 373

Norway: Primary Unwrought Aluminum ............................................................................ 375 Germany: Secondary Unwrought and Wrought Aluminum ............................................... 377



Trade ....................................................................................................................................... 384 Government Policies and Programs ....................................................................................... 391

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Competitive Factors ................................................................................................................ 393 Norway: Primary Unwrought Aluminum ............................................................................ 393 Germany: Secondary Unwrought and Wrought Aluminum ............................................... 398

Bibliography ............................................................................................................................ 404

Chapter 10 Quantitative Assessment of the Impact of Certain Foreign Government Policies ....................................................................................... 421

Summary ................................................................................................................................. 421 Methodological Approach ...................................................................................................... 422

Policies ................................................................................................................................ 423 Simulations of Policy Changes ............................................................................................ 427

Results ..................................................................................................................................... 427 Chinese Trade Policies ........................................................................................................ 428 Chinese Domestic Policies ................................................................................................... 429 Gulf Cooperation Council Energy Policies ........................................................................... 430 Comparison of Model and Survey ...................................................................................... 431

Bibliography ............................................................................................................................ 433

Appendix A Request Letter ............................................................................. 435 Appendix B Federal Register Notices ............................................................... 439 Appendix C Calendar of Hearing Witnesses ..................................................... 447 Appendix D Summary of the Views of Interested Parties ................................ 455 Appendix E Harmonized System Classifications for Unwrought and Wrought Aluminum Products ........................................................................................ 475 Appendix F Survey Questionnaire ................................................................... 479 Appendix G Description of the Commission’s Survey Methodology ................ 505 Appendix H Survey Results ............................................................................. 511 Appendix I Aluminum Technical Background .................................................. 525 Appendix J Aluminum Trade Flows through Third Countries .......................... 539 Appendix K Technical Appendix to the Quantitative Assessment of the Impact of Certain Foreign Government Policies .............................................. 555 Appendix L Data Tables for Figures ................................................................. 587

Boxes Box 1.1: Recent U.S. Trade Actions Relating to Imports of Aluminum, 2011–17 ........................ 44 Box 2.1: Trade Policies Affecting Chinese Exports of Remelt Semis ............................................ 89 Box 2.2: Commodity Exchanges ................................................................................................... 92 Box 2.3: Commodity Exchange Warehouses ................................................................................ 95 Box 4.1: United States: Overview of the U.S. Primary Aluminum Producers Still Operating .... 136 Box 4.2: United States: Two Types of Secondary Producers: Captive and Merchant ................ 138



Box 4.3: United States: Overview of Leading Secondary Unwrought Aluminum Producers ..... 140 Box 4.4: United States: Overview of Leading Wrought Aluminum Producers ........................... 144 Box 4.5: United States: Motor Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Standards .............................................. 156 Box 4.6: United States: Aluminum Scrap Availability ................................................................. 167 Box 6.1: China: Environmental Impact of Aluminum Production .............................................. 258

Figures Figure ES.1: Production and consumption of primary aluminum in China compared to the rest of the world (excluding China), 2001, 2011, and 2015 (thousand mt)......................................... 31 Figure ES.2: Production and consumption of wrought aluminum in China compared to the rest of the world (excluding China), 2001, 2011, and 2015 (thousand mt)......................................... 32 Figure ES.3: Total world stocks of primary unwrought aluminum and global aluminum prices, 2011–15 ........................................................................................................................................ 33 Figure ES.4: U.S. primary aluminum production and capacity, 2011–16 (thousand mt) ............. 37 Figure 1.1: Aluminum industry supply chain and production processes ..................................... 50 Figure 1.2: World: Consumption of aluminum wrought products by major end-use sectors, 2015 .............................................................................................................................................. 57 Figure 2.1: World: Primary unwrought aluminum products ........................................................ 71 Figure 2.2: World: Major trade flows of unwrought aluminum (thousand mt) .......................... 83 Figure 2.3: World: Major trade flows of wrought aluminum (thousand mt) ............................... 86 Figure 2.4: Global primary and secondary aluminum prices, 2011–15 (dollars per mt) ............. 93 Figure 2.5: World: Primary aluminum stocks and prices, 2011–15 ............................................. 94 Figure 2.6: World: Price and input costs for production of primary unwrought aluminum, 2011–15 ........................................................................................................................................ 96 Figure 3.1: Share of average business costs for selected rolled products accounted for by input, 2015, (share of average business costs) ..................................................................................... 107 Figure 3.2: Average business costs of production for selected primary aluminum producing countries, 2011–15 (dollars per mt) ........................................................................................... 110 Figure 3.3: China: Selected provincial grid or captive power electricity costs for primary aluminum production at smelters, 2014 (dollars per mt) .......................................................... 114 Figure 3.4: Number of smelters with at least 500,000 metric tons in annual capacity, 2015 ... 116 Figure 3.5: Primary aluminum delivery costs, 2015 (dollars per mt) ......................................... 117 Figure 3.6: Labor costs for select flat-rolled products, 2015 (dollars per mt) ........................... 122 Figure 4.1: United States: Locations of primary unwrought aluminum smelters and total capacity, 2011 and 2016 (million mt) ......................................................................................... 133 Figure 4.2: United States: Locations of secondary unwrought aluminum producers, 2015 ..... 139 Figure 4.3: United States: Primary unwrought aluminum industry production, by casthouse products, 2011–15 (percent) ...................................................................................................... 150

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Figure 4.4: United States: Unwrought aluminum consumption, 2011 and 2015 ...................... 154 Figure 4.5: United States: Wrought aluminum imports from China, by product form, 2011–16 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 160 Figure 4.6: United States: Certain aluminum flat-rolled products, average business costs, 2011–15 (dollars per mt) ............................................................................................................ 168 Figure 5.1: Canada: Location of primary unwrought aluminum smelters, 2016 ....................... 188 Figure 5.2: Canada: Unwrought aluminum exports to global and U.S. markets, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 199 Figure 5.3: Canada: Wrought aluminum imports and exports, 2011–15 (thousand mt) .......... 200 Figure 6.1: China: Aluminum production value chain, 2015 ...................................................... 220 Figure 6.2: China: Change in production capacity by province, 2011–15 (thousand mt) .......... 225 Figure 6.3: China: Primary unwrought aluminum production capacity by smelter size, 2006–15, number of smelters..................................................................................................................... 226 Figure 6.4: China: Aluminum scrap supply by source, 2011–15 (million mt) ............................. 231 Figure 6.5: China: Location of production of aluminum products,a 2015 (mt) .......................... 234 Figure 6.6: China: Primary unwrought aluminum production and consumption, 2001–15 (million mt) .................................................................................................................................. 237 Figure 6.7: China: Cs ................................................................................................................... 239 Figure 6.8: China: Secondary unwrought aluminum production, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ....... 240 Figure 6.9: China: Wrought aluminum production and consumption, 2001–15 (million mt) ... 242 Figure 6.10: China: Primary unwrought aluminum consumption, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ...... 243 Figure 6.11: China: Aluminum exports by type, 2011–16 (million mt) ...................................... 245 Figure 6.12: China: Share (ordinary and processing trade) of global wrought aluminum exports, 2011–15 ........................................................................................................................ 252 Figure 6.13: China: Exports of unwrought, unalloyed aluminum (HS 7601.10), 2001–16, and export tariffs (thousand mt) ....................................................................................................... 274 Figure 6.14: China: Chinese and global average business costs for certain aluminum flat-rolled products, 2011–15 (dollars per mt) ............................................................................................ 276 Figure 7.1: GCC countries: Locations of primary unwrought aluminum smelters, 2016 ........... 307 Figure 7.2: GCC countries: Wrought aluminum production, 2011–2015 (thousand mt) .......... 314 Figure 7.3: GCC countries: Primary unwrought aluminum consumption, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 315 Figure 7.4: GCC countries: Exports of primary unwrought aluminum products to the United States (HS headings 7601), 2011–15 (thousand mt) .................................................................. 319 Figure 7.5: GCC countries: Natural-gas prices for GCC countries and the United States, January–August 2015 (dollars per million British thermal units (MMbtu)) .............................................. 330 Figure 7.6: GCC countries: Electricity prices for GCC countries and the United States, January–August 2015 (dollars per kilowatt hour) ..................................................................................... 331



Figure 8.1: Russia: Locations of primary unwrought aluminum, alumina, and bauxite operations, 2015 ............................................................................................................................................ 344 Figure 8.2: Russia: Rusal and LME primary unwrought aluminum prices and ruble exchange rate, 2011–15 .............................................................................................................................. 348 Figure 9.1: Europe: Share of primary and wrought aluminum production by countries, 2011–15 ...................................................................................................................................... 372 Figure 9.2: Germany and world: Certain aluminum flat-rolled products, average business costs for 2011–15 (dollars per mt) ....................................................................................................... 400 Figure I.1: Bauxite ore and refined alumina, the raw materials for primary aluminum smelting ....................................................................................................................................... 527 Figure I.2: The Hall-Héroult primary aluminum smelting process ............................................. 528 Figure I.3: Forms of unwrought aluminum products ................................................................ 529 Figure I.4: Forms of wrought aluminum products ..................................................................... 532

Tables Table ES.1.1: Government policies across the selected countries and regions identified in this report, and whether the effect is estimated by the model .......................................................... 34 Table ES.1.2: Competitiveness profile of selected countries and regions ................................... 36 Table ES.1.3: Effect of selected Chinese domestic and trade policies and GCC countries’ energy policies on U.S. aluminum production and exports, 2015 ........................................................... 41 Table 1.1: Correspondence of CRU Group product categories with wrought aluminum products and with 4-digit headings of the global Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System (HS) ................................................................................................................................................ 48 Table 2.1: World: Production, capacity, and capacity utilization of primary unwrought aluminum, by producer, 2001, 2006, and 2011–15 ..................................................................... 67 Table 2.2: World: Primary unwrought aluminum production volumes (thousand mt) and shares of total (percent), by product, 2011–15 ....................................................................................... 71 Table 2.3: World: Secondary unwrought aluminum production, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ......... 72 Table 2.4: World: Production of wrought aluminum, by producer and product, 2001, 2006, and 2011–15 (thousand mt) ................................................................................................................ 73 Table 2.5: World: Production, capacity, and capacity utilization of aluminum flat-rolled products, by producer, 2001, 2006, and 2011–15 ....................................................................... 75 Table 2.6: World: Production of aluminum extrusions, by producer, 2001, 2006, and 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................... 77 Table 2.7: World: Production of aluminum wire and cable, by producer, 2001, 2006, and 2011–15 (thousand mt) .......................................................................................................................... 78 Table 2.8: World: Consumption of primary unwrought aluminum, by consumer, 2001, 2006, and 2011–15 (thousand mt) ................................................................................................................ 79

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Table 2.9: World: Consumption of wrought aluminum, by consumer, 2001, 2006, and 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................... 80 Table 2.10: World: Consumption of wrought aluminum by end use, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ... 81 Table 2.11: World: Exports of unwrought aluminum (HS 7601), by leading exporters and the United States, 2001, 2006, and 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................. 82 Table 2.12: World: Leading importers of unwrought aluminum (HS 7601), 2001, 2006, and 2011–15 (thousand mt) ................................................................................................................ 84 Table 2.13: World: Leading exporters of wrought aluminum (HS 7604–7608), 2001, 2006, and 2011–15 (thousand mt) ................................................................................................................ 85 Table 2.14: World: Exports of wrought aluminum, by product form, 2001, 2006, and 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................... 87 Table 2.15: World: Imports of wrought aluminum, by importer, 2001, 2006, and 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................... 88 Table 2.16: Chinese exports of aluminum bars, rods, and profiles (HS 7604) from bonded warehouses to Mexico, Malaysia, and Vietnam, total global stock, and global unwrought and extrusions production, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ........................................................................... 90 Table 3.1: Summary of key factors that affect aluminum industry competitiveness ................ 103 Table 3.2: The competitive profile among selected primary aluminum producing countries/regions ........................................................................................................................ 108 Table 3.3: The competitive profile of selected countries producing secondary unwrought and wrought aluminum ..................................................................................................................... 109 Table 3.4: Selected production cost items and average business costs for primary unwrought aluminum, by selected countries and regions, 2015 (dollars per mt) ........................................ 110 Table 4.1: United States: Primary unwrought, secondary unwrought, and wrought aluminum industry segment performance, 2011–15 (percentage change) ................................................ 130 Table 4.2: United States: Primary unwrought aluminum smelters, 2011–16 ............................ 134 Table 4.3: United States: Primary unwrought aluminum industry employment, productivity, and wages, 2011–15 .......................................................................................................................... 137 Table 4.4: United States: Secondary unwrought aluminum industry employment and productivity, 2011–15 ................................................................................................................. 141 Table 4.5: United States: Secondary unwrought aluminum industry investment, 2011–15 (million dollars) ........................................................................................................................... 142 Table 4.6: United States: Aluminum rolling mill employment, productivity, and wages, 2011–15 ...................................................................................................................................... 146 Table 4.7: United States: Wrought aluminum, capital expenditures at U.S. facilities, 2011–15 (thousand dollars) ....................................................................................................................... 147 Table 4.8: United States: Primary unwrought aluminum production, capacity, and capacity utilization, 2001, 2006, 2011–16 ................................................................................................ 149



Table 4.9: United States: Secondary unwrought aluminum industry capacity and production, by type of producer, 2011–15 ......................................................................................................... 151 Table 4.10: United States: Wrought aluminum, production, capacity and capacity utilization, 2011–15 ...................................................................................................................................... 152 Table 4.11: United States: Wrought aluminum products, production by product groups, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ........................................................................................................................ 153 Table 4.12: United States: Consumption of wrought aluminum by product form, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 154 Table 4.13: United States: Unwrought aluminum exports (HS 7601), by destination, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 157 Table 4.14: United States: Unwrought aluminum imports (HS 7601), by source, 2011–16 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 158 Table 4.15: United States: Wrought aluminum exports (HS 7604–7608), by destination, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 158 Table 4.16: United States: Wrought aluminum exports, by product form, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................................... 159 Table 4.17: United States: Wrought aluminum imports (HS 7604–7608), by source, 2011–16 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 159 Table 4.18: United States: Wrought aluminum imports, by product form, 2011–16 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................................... 160 Table 4.19: United States: Select competitive factors ............................................................... 164 Table 4.20: United States: Primary unwrought aluminum average business costs, 2011–15 (dollars per mt) ........................................................................................................................... 165 Table 4.21: United States: Certain aluminum flat-rolled products, average business costs, 2011–15 (dollars per mt) ............................................................................................................ 169 Table 5.1: Canada: Primary unwrought aluminum smelters, 2016............................................ 187 Table 5.2: Canada: Primary unwrought aluminum industry employment, productivity, and wages, 2011–15 .......................................................................................................................... 191 Table 5.3: Canada: Secondary aluminum producers and their principal products (wrought and unwrought) ................................................................................................................................. 192 Table 5.4: Canada: Aluminum rolling mill employment, productivity, and wages, 2011–15 .... 193 Table 5.5: Canada: Primary unwrought aluminum production, capacity, and capacity utilization, 2011–15 .................................................................................................................... 194 Table 5.6: Canada: Wrought aluminum production, capacity, and capacity utilization, 2011–15 ...................................................................................................................................... 195 Table 5.7: Canada: Consumption of wrought aluminum by form and end use, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 197 Table 5.8: Canada: Unwrought aluminum exports (HS 7601), by destination, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 198

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Table 5.9: Canada: Wrought aluminum exports (HS 7604–7608), by destination, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 201 Table 5.10: Canada: Wrought aluminum imports (HS 7604–7608), by source, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 202 Table 5.11: Canada: Selected competitive factors ..................................................................... 205 Table 5.12: Canada: Primary unwrought aluminum average business costs, 2011–15 (dollar per mt of primary aluminum) ............................................................................................................ 206 Table 5.13: Canada: Comparison of Canadian and U.S. primary smelter energy costs, 2010 and 2014 ............................................................................................................................................ 207 Table 6.1: China: Leading primary unwrought aluminum producers (by majority ownership of plants), production location and capacities, and extent of vertical integration ........................ 222 Table 6.2: China: Primary unwrought aluminum production, capacity, capacity utilization, and number of smelters, by region and select provinces within each region, 2006, 2011, and 2015 ..................................................................................................................................... 224 Table 6.3: China: Primary unwrought aluminum industry employment, productivity, and wages, 2011–15 ...................................................................................................................................... 228 Table 6.4: China: Examples of secondary producers with a capacity of at least 300,000 mt per year ............................................................................................................................................. 228 Table 6.5: China: Aluminum rolling mill employment, productivity, and wages, 2011–15 ....... 235 Table 6.6: China: Primary unwrought aluminum production, capacity, and capacity utilization, 2011–15 ...................................................................................................................................... 236 Table 6.7: China: Wrought aluminum production, capacity, and capacity utilization, 2011–15 ...................................................................................................................................... 241 Table 6.8: China: Consumption of wrought aluminum by form and end use, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 243 Table 6.9: China: Unwrought aluminum exports (HS 7601), by destination, 2011–16 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 246 Table 6.10: China: Processing trade of aluminum scrap (HS 7602) and aluminum alloys (HS 7601.20), 2011–16 (thousand mt)........................................................................................ 247 Table 6.11: China: Unwrought aluminum imports (HS 7601), by source, 2011–16 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 248 Table 6.12: China: Wrought aluminum exports (HS 7604–7608), 2011–16, by regime (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 249 Table 6.13: China: Wrought aluminum exports (HS 7604–7608), by destination, 2011–16, ordinary and processing trade (thousand mt) ............................................................................ 250 Table 6.14: China: Wrought aluminum exports, by type, 2011–16, ordinary and processing trade (thousand mt) .................................................................................................................... 250 Table 6.15: China: Wrought aluminum imports (HS 7604–7608), by source, 2011–16 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 252



Table 6.16: China: Wrought aluminum imports, by product type, 2011–16 (thousand mt) ..... 253 Table 6.17: Subsidy Allegations: Certain Aluminum Foil from the People’s Republic of China . 266 Table 6.18: China: Select competitive factors ............................................................................ 267 Table 6.19: China: Primary unwrought aluminum average business costs, 2011–15, (dollars per mt of aluminum produced) .................................................................................................. 269 Table 7.1: GCC countries: Primary unwrought aluminum products, 2016 ................................ 305 Table 7.2: GCC countries: Primary unwrought aluminum industry employment, productivity, and wages, 2011–15 ................................................................................................................... 309 Table 7.3: GCC countries: Major wrought aluminum producers and their principal products . 310 Table 7.4: GCC countries: Primary unwrought aluminum production, capacity, and capacity utilization, 2011–15 .................................................................................................................... 312 Table 7.5: GCC countries: Wrought aluminum production capacity, by country, 2013 ............ 314 Table 7.6: GCC countries: Consumption of wrought aluminum by form and end use, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 317 Table 7.7: GCC countries: Exports of unwrought aluminum (HS 7601), by country, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 318 Table 7.8: GCC countries: Unwrought aluminum exports (HS 7601), by destination, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 319 Table 7.9: GCC countries: Wrought aluminum exports (HS 7604–08), by destination, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 321 Table 7.10: GCC countries: Wrought aluminum exports, by product form, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 321 Table 7.11: GCC countries: Wrought aluminum imports (HS 7604-7608), by source, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 322 Table 7.12: GCC countries: Wrought aluminum imports, by product form, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 323 Table 7.13: GCC countries: Selected government policies and programs ................................. 324 Table 7.14: GCC countries: Select competitive factors for primary unwrought aluminum ....... 326 Table 7.15: GCC countries: Primary unwrought aluminum average business costs, 2011–15 (dollar per mt of aluminum produced) ....................................................................................... 328 Table 7.16: GCC countries: Primary unwrought aluminum average business costs, by country, 2011–15 (dollars per mt of primary aluminum) ......................................................................... 328 Table 8.1: Russia: Primary unwrought aluminum smelters, 2016 ............................................. 343 Table 8.2: Russia: Primary unwrought aluminum industry employment, productivity, and wages, 2011–15 ................................................................................................................... 344 Table 8.3: Russia: Aluminum rolling mill employment, productivity, and wages, 2011–15 ...... 347 Table 8.4: Russia: Primary unwrought aluminum production, capacity, and capacity utilization, 2011–15 .................................................................................................................... 348

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Table 8.5: Russia: Secondary aluminum scrap collection and alloy production, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 349 Table 8.6: Russia: Wrought aluminum production, capacity, and capacity utilization, 2011–15 ...................................................................................................................................... 350 Table 8.7: Russia: Unwrought aluminum consumption by type, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ........ 350 Table 8.8: Russia: Consumption of wrought aluminum by product form and end use, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 352 Table 8.9: Russia: Unwrought aluminum exports (HS 7601), by destination, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 355 Table 8.10: Russia: Wrought aluminum exports, by product form, 2011–15 (thousand mt) .... 355 Table 8.11: Russia: Wrought aluminum exports (HS 7604–7608), by destination, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 356 Table 8.12: Russia: Wrought aluminum imports, by product form, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ... 356 Table 8.13: Russia: Wrought aluminum imports (HS 7604–7608), by source, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 356 Table 8.14: Russia: Select competitive factors for primary unwrought aluminum ................... 361 Table 8.15: Russia: Primary unwrought aluminum average business costs, 2011–15 (dollar per mt of aluminum produced) ......................................................................................................... 361 Table 9.1: Europe: Primary unwrought aluminum industry employment, production, productivity, and wages, 2011–15 .............................................................................................. 374 Table 9.2: Norway: Primary unwrought aluminum smelters, 2017 ........................................... 376 Table 9.3: Norway: Primary unwrought aluminum industry employment, productivity, and wages, 2011–15 .......................................................................................................................... 376 Table 9.4: Germany: Aluminum rolling mill employment, productivity, and wages, 2011–15 ...................................................................................................................................... 379 Table 9.5: Europe: Primary unwrought aluminum production, capacity, and capacity utilization, 2011–15 ...................................................................................................................................... 380 Table 9.6: Europe and Germany: Wrought aluminum production, capacity, and capacity utilization, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................ 382 Table 9.7: Europe: Primary unwrought aluminum consumption by country, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 383 Table 9.8: Europe: Consumption of wrought aluminum by form and end-use, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 384 Table 9.9: Europe: Leading exporters of unwrought aluminum (HS 7601), 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 386 Table 9.10: Norway: Unwrought aluminum exports (HS 7601), top destinations and the United States, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ...................................................................................... 386 Table 9.11: Europe: Leading importers of unwrought aluminum (HS 7601), 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 387



Table 9.12: Germany: Unwrought aluminum imports (HS 7601), by source, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 388 Table 9.13: Europe: Leading exporters of wrought aluminum (HS 7604–7608), 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 388 Table 9.14: Germany: Wrought aluminum exports, by product form, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 389 Table 9.15: Germany: Aluminum plate, sheet, and strip exports (HS 7606), by destination, 2011–15 (thousand mt) .............................................................................................................. 389 Table 9.16: Europe: Leading importers of wrought aluminum (HS 7604–7608), 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 390 Table 9.17: Germany: Wrought aluminum imports, by product form, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 390 Table 9.18: European Union: Select environmental, recycling, and waste policies affecting the aluminum industry ...................................................................................................................... 392 Table 9.19: Norway: Select competitive factors for primary aluminum .................................... 393 Table 9.20: Norway: Primary unwrought aluminum average business costs, 2011–15 (dollars per mt of primary aluminum) ..................................................................................................... 395 Table 9.21: Germany: Select competitive factors for secondary unwrought and wrought aluminum .................................................................................................................................... 398 Table 10.1: Foreign government policies and programs identified in chapters 5–9, their qualitative effects, and whether included in the model ............................................................ 425 Table 10.2: Foreign government policies and programs addressed by model and their ad valorem equivalent tax or subsidy rates ..................................................................................... 426 Table 10.3: Effect of selected Chinese trade policies on Chinese aluminum prices, production, and trade ..................................................................................................................................... 428 Table 10.4: Effect of selected Chinese trade policies on U.S. aluminum prices, production, and trade ............................................................................................................................................ 429 Table 10.5: Effect of selected Chinese domestic policies on Chinese aluminum prices, production, and trade ................................................................................................................. 429 Table 10.6: Effect of selected Chinese domestic policies on U.S. aluminum prices, production, and trade ..................................................................................................................................... 430 Table 10.7: Effect of selected Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) country energy policies on GCC country aluminum prices, production, and trade ............................................................... 430 Table 10.8: Effect of selected Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries energy policies on U.S. aluminum prices, production, and trade .................................................................................... 431 Table E.1: Harmonized System (HS) classifications: Unwrought and wrought aluminum products, by 4-digit headings and 6-digit subheadings .............................................................. 477 Table G.1: North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes used to compile the list of firms in the aluminum industry .............................................................................................. 508

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Table G.2: Response rate and estimated share of production by aluminum industry segment (percent) ..................................................................................................................................... 508 Table G.3: Average weight by aluminum industry segment ...................................................... 510 Table H.1: Survey question 3.2: Secondary unwrought aluminum operations, 2011–15 ......... 514 Table H.2: Survey question 3.3: Secondary unwrought aluminum, shipments, 2011–15a ........ 515 Table H.3: Survey question 3.4: Secondary unwrought aluminum, input cost changes, 2011–15 (percent) ..................................................................................................................................... 515 Table H.4: Survey, question 3.5: Secondary unwrought aluminum, raw materials purchases by sources, 2011–15 ........................................................................................................................ 516 Table H.5: Survey question 3.5: Secondary unwrought aluminum, raw materials purchases by sources, 2011–15 ........................................................................................................................ 516 Table H.6: Survey question 3.11: Secondary unwrought aluminum, estimates of impact of removal of foreign government policies and programs on U.S. firms' 2015 production levels. 517 Table H.7: Survey questions 4.2 and 4.3: Wrought aluminum, capacity, production, and capacity utilization, 2011–15 .................................................................................................................... 518 Table H.8: Survey question 4.3: Wrought aluminum, production by product groups, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 519 Table H.9: Survey question 4.4: Wrought aluminum, shipment quantities by product groups, 2011–15 (thousand mt) .............................................................................................................. 519 Table H.10: Survey question 4.5: Wrought aluminum, shipment values by product groups, 2011–15 (million dollars) ............................................................................................................ 520 Table H.11: Survey questions 4.4 and 4.5: Wrought aluminum, shipment unit values by product groups, 2011–15 (dollars per mt)a .............................................................................................. 520 Table H.12: Survey question 4.6: Wrought aluminum, export quantities, values, and unit values, 2011–15 ...................................................................................................................................... 521 Table H.13: Survey question 4.9: Wrought aluminum, U.S. production capacity changes, 2011–15 (percent)................................................................................................................................. 522 Table H.14: Survey question 4.10: Wrought aluminum, employees, 2011–15 (number, full-time equivalent basis) ......................................................................................................................... 522 Table H.15: Survey question 4.11: Wrought aluminum, capital expenditures at U.S. facilities, 2011–15 (thousand dollars) ........................................................................................................ 522 Table H.16: Survey question 4.12: Wrought aluminum, shipments by customer type, 2011 and 2015 ............................................................................................................................................ 523 Table H.17: Survey question 4.13: Wrought aluminum, shipments by end-use consuming sector, 2011 and 2015 ............................................................................................................................ 523 Table H.18: Survey question 4.14: Wrought aluminum, changes in input costs, 2011 and 2015 (percent) ..................................................................................................................................... 524 Table H.19: Survey question 4.15: Wrought aluminum, producers' purchases of unwrought and wrought aluminum products used internally or commercially sold, 2011–15 .......................... 524



Table H.20: Survey question 4.22: Wrought aluminum, estimates of the impact of removal of foreign government policies and programs on U.S. firms' 2015 production levels ................... 524 Table I.1: Wrought aluminum alloys, properties, and major end uses ...................................... 530 Table J.1: Third-country trade: Volume of trade flows of aluminum bars, rods, and profiles (HS 7604) compared to volume of global production of unwrought aluminum and extrusions, 2010–15 (thousand mt) .............................................................................................................. 543 Table J.2: Third-country trade: Chinese exports of all wrought products (HS 7604–7608) from bonded warehouses (thousand mt) ........................................................................................... 543 Table J.3: Third-country trade: China’s exports of aluminum bars, rods, and profiles (HS 7604) from bonded warehouses, 2011–15 (mt) ................................................................................... 544 Table J.4: Third-country trade: Mexican aluminum extrusions (HS 7604): production and trade, 2010–15 (mt) .............................................................................................................................. 545 Table J.5: Third-country trade: Mexican exports to Vietnam of aluminum bars, rods, and profiles (HS 7604), 2016 .............................................................................................................. 545 Table J.6: Third-country trade: Vietnamese aluminum extrusions (HS 7604): production and trade, 2010–15 (mt) .................................................................................................................... 547 Table K.1: Regions used to create production data for region-commodity pairs with missing production ................................................................................................................................... 560 Table K.2: Aluminum policy variables in the aluminum model and their average unit values (AVE) ............................................................................................................................................ 564 Table K.3: Lost wages of U.S. workers due to the effect of selected policies (million $) .......... 570 Table K.4: Aggregate effect of all policies on prices of aluminum commodities by region (percent change) ......................................................................................................................... 571 Table K.5: Aggregate effect of all policies on production of aluminum commodities by region ..................................................................................................................................... 572 Table K.6: Aggregate effect of all policies on imports of aluminum commodities by destination region .......................................................................................................................................... 572 Table K.7: Aggregate effect of all policies on exports of aluminum commodities by source region .............................................................................................................................. 572 Table K.8: Survey question 3.11: Secondary unwrought aluminum, estimates of impact of removal of foreign government policies and programs on U.S. firms’ 2015 production levels ........................................................................................................................ 573 Table K.9: Survey question 4.22: Wrought aluminum, estimates of the impact of removal of foreign government policies and programs on U.S. firms' 2015 production levels ................... 574 Table K.10: List of commodities in the aluminum model ........................................................... 574 Table K.11: List of regions in the aluminum model .................................................................... 575 Table K.12: Concordance between CRU Group primary regions and aluminum model regions ......................................................................................................................................... 576

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Table K.13: Concordance between CRU Group wrought regions and aluminum model regions ......................................................................................................................................... 577 Table K.14: Concordance between NAICS sectors and aluminum model commodities ............ 577 Table K.15: Concordance between Annual Survey of Manufacturers (ASM) input categories and aluminum model commodities ................................................................................................... 577 Table K.16: Concordance between Global Trade Atlas (GTA) database commodities and aluminum model commodities ................................................................................................... 578 Table L.1: Production and consumption of primary aluminum in China compared to the rest of the world (excluding China), 2001, 2011, and 2015 (thousand mt) ........................................... 589 Table L.2: Production and consumption of wrought aluminum in China compared to the rest of the world (excluding China), 2001, 2011, and 2015 (thousand mt) ............................... 589 Table L.3: Total world stocks of primary unwrought aluminum and global aluminum prices, 2011–15 ...................................................................................................................................... 589 Table L.4: U.S. production and capacity, 2011–16 (thousand mt) ............................................. 589 Table L.5: World: Consumption of aluminum wrought products by major end-use sectors, 2015 ............................................................................................................................................ 589 Table L.6: Global primary and secondary aluminum prices, 2011–16, in dollars per mt .......... 590 Table L.7: World: Primary aluminum stocks and prices, 2011–15 ............................................. 590 Table L.8: World: Price and input costs for production of primary unwrought aluminum, 2011–15 ................................................................................................................................................ 591 Table L.9: Share of average business costs for select products accounted for by raw materials, 2015, select rolled products (share of average business costs) percent.................................... 591 Table L.10: Average business costs of production for selected primary aluminum producing countries, 2011–15 (dollars per mt of aluminum) ...................................................................... 591 Table L.11: Exchange rates can impact competitiveness, index 2010 equals 100 ..................... 591 Table L.12: China: Selected provincial grid or captive power electricity costs for primary aluminum production at smelters, 2014 (dollars per mt) .......................................................... 593 Table L.13: Number of smelters with at least 500,000 metric tons in annual capacity, 2015 ............................................................................................................................................ 593 Table L.14: Primary aluminum delivery costs, 2015 (dollars per mt)......................................... 594 Table L.15: Labor costs for select flat-rolled products, 2015 (dollars per mt) .......................... 594 Table L.16: United States: Primary unwrought aluminum industry production, by casthouse products, 2011–15 (percent) ...................................................................................................... 594 Table L.17: United States: Unwrought aluminum consumption, 2011 and 2015 ...................... 594 Table L.18: United States: Wrought aluminum imports from China, by product form, 2011–16 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 595 Table L.19: United States: Certain aluminum flat-rolled products, average business costs, 2011–15 (dollars per mt) ...................................................................................................................... 595



Table L.20: Canada: Unwrought aluminum exports to global and U.S. markets, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ............................................................................................................................. 595 Table L.21: Canada: Wrought aluminum imports and exports, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ......... 596 Table L.22: China: Primary unwrought aluminum production capacity by smelter size, 2006–15, number of smelters .................................................................................................... 596 Table L.23: China: Aluminum scrap supply by source, 2011–15 (million mt) ........................... 596 Table L.24: China: Primary unwrought aluminum production and consumption, 2001–15 (million mt) .................................................................................................................................. 597 Table L.25: Capacity utilization Chinese aluminum smelters, by age and size, 2015, percent .. 597 Table L.26: China: Secondary unwrought aluminum production, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ...... 597 Table L.27: China: Wrought aluminum production and consumption, 2001–15 (million mt) ... 597 Table L.28: China: Primary unwrought aluminum consumption, 2011–15 (thousand mt) ...... 597 Table L.29: China: Aluminum exports by type, 2011–16 (million mt) ........................................ 598 Table L.30: China: Share (ordinary and processing trade) of global wrought aluminum exports, 2011–15 ........................................................................................................................ 598 Table L.31: China: Exports of unwrought, unalloyed aluminum (HS 7601.10), 2001–16, and export tariffs (thousand mt) ....................................................................................................... 598 Table L.32: China: Chinese and global average business costs for certain aluminum flat-rolled products, 2011–15 (dollars per mt) ............................................................................................ 603 Table L.33: GCC countries: Wrought aluminum production, 2011-15 (thousand mt) ............... 603 Table L.34: GCC countries: Primary unwrought aluminum consumption by country, 2011–15 (thousand mt) .............................................................................................................. 604 Table L.35: GCC countries: Exports of primary unwrought aluminum products to the United States (HS headings 7601), 2011–15 (thousand mt) .................................................................. 604 Table L.36: GCC countries: Natural-gas prices for GCC countries and the United States, January–August 2015 (dollars per million British thermal units (MMbtu)) ............................... 604 Table L.37: GCC countries: Electricity prices for GCC countries and the United States, January–August 2015 (dollars per kilowatt hour) ..................................................................... 604 Table L.38: Russia: Rusal and LME primary unwrought aluminum prices and ruble exchange rate, 2011–15 .............................................................................................................................. 605 Table L.39: Europe: Share of primary and wrought aluminum production by countries, 2011–15 ..................................................................................................................................... 605 Table L.40: Germany and world: Average business costs for certain aluminum flat-rolled products, 2011–15 (dollars per mt) ............................................................................................ 605

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Abbreviations and Acronyms Abbreviation or acronym Term 1xxx pure (nonalloyed) aluminum AAC Aluminium Association of Canada AAC Australian Aluminium Council AD antidumping AEC Aluminum Extruders Council AEFTC Aluminum Extruders Fair Trade Committee Alba Aluminium Bahrain AluNorf Aluminum Norf GmbH Alupco Aluminium Products Co. (Saudi Arabia) ASM Annual Survey of Manufacturers ASM American Society for Metals International AUV average unit value AVE ad valorem equivalent Balexco Bahrain Aluminium Extrusion Co. Befesa Befesa Aluminium Germany GmbH BEMO Boguchanskoye Energy and Metals Complex BLS & Co. Biggins Lacy Shapiro and Co. LLC CAFE Corporate Average Fuel Economy (standard) CAPEX capital expenditure(s) CASH continuous heat-treated annealing CBSA Canada Border Services Agency CCA capital cost allowance Chalco Aluminum Corporation of China Chalieco China Aluminum International Engineering Corporation Ltd. CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CITT Canadian Intern

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