alvin demographic independent update school fall 2017 · were new homes • the average sale price...

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AlvinIndependentSchoolDistrict

Demographic Update

Fall 2017

Economic Conditions – Houston Area (September 2017)

2

Unemployment

Rate

-0.4%

34,589 new jobs

National rate 1.6%

Job Growth

1.1%

1,904 more

starts than 3Q16

Annual

Home Starts

27,713

Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy

U.S. 4.1%

Texas 4.0%

Houston MSA 4.8%

Alvin 5.5%

• Between 30,000 and 40,000 homes are estimated to have been destroyed in the Houston area, roughly 3.8% - 5.1% of Houston area homes

• Approximately 100,000 total homes are estimated to have been affected in the Houston area

• Approximately 105,000 apartment units have sustained damage as a result of flooding

• Most affected areas include: Port Arthur, Galveston/Houston, Port Aransas, Dickinson, and League City

• Local retail sales are expected to increase in Harris, Montgomery, and Fort Bend Counties

• Recovery total investment is estimated to be $150-$180 Billion

• Major spikes in rental and condo properties are expected as buyers seek to secure short term housing options

• Renovation activity is expected to increase as homeowners begin to rebuild damaged homes

Local Economy- Harvey Impact

3

Alvin ISD Home Sales

• Alvin ISD has had 2,120 home sales in 2017, and roughly 38% of them were new homes

• The average sale price in 2017 for a new home in AISD is $323,656

• The average sale price in 2017 for an existing home in AISD is $244,865

January – October 2017 Home Sales by Transaction Type

4

New Home Sales37.86%

Existing Home Sales56.07% REO Sales

3.67%

Foreclosures2.40%

2017 DistrictHome Sales

by Type

Alvin ISD Historical Home Price Analysis

• The average new home price has risen 50% since

2010, a price difference of $108,796

• The average existing home price within Alvin ISD has

risen 34% since 2010, a price change of $62,672

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 Y T D 2 0 1 7

NEW VS EXISTING HOME SALE PRICE, 2010 - 2017

New Homes Existing Homes

New Homes

Existing Homes

2010 $214,860 $182,193

2011 $213,775 $217,235

2012 $230,724 $187,127

2013 $255,691 $193,812

2014 $272,496 $211,622

2015 $302,885 $226,751

2016 $311,487 $233,393

YTD 2017 $323,656 $244,865 5

Houston New Home Ranking Report

6

ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 3Q17

*Adjusted based on additional research by Templeton Demographics staff

Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future

1 Fort Bend ISD 3,118 3,057 3,079 14,603

2 Cypress-Fairbanks ISD 2,879 2,879 3,089 15,809

3 Katy ISD 2,289 2,398 3,180 16,314

4 Lamar CISD 2,518 2,359 4,255 17,285

5 Houston ISD 2,051 1,994 3,251 7,346

6 Conroe ISD 1,935 1,964 4,538 24,733

7 Alvin ISD* 1,390 1,332 1,859 15,024

8 Klein ISD 961 1,242 1,734 2,228

9 Humble ISD 1,204 1,088 2,144 8,219

10 Clear Creek ISD 990 965 1,549 3,726

11 Tomball ISD 1,031 881 2,380 2,534

12 Spring ISD 716 675 545 6,777

13 Aldine ISD 514 517 998 1,285

14 Spring Branch ISD 542 473 1,456 903

15 Sheldon ISD 449 465 548 3,521

16 New Caney ISD 418 433 864 3,819

17 Pearland ISD 362 378 241 454

18 Magnolia ISD 335 371 1,128 4,055

19 Goose Creek CISD 286 331 565 1,492

20 Montgomery ISD 284 326 1,066 4,543

New Housing Activity

• Alvin ISD had more than 360 new home starts for the second straight quarter

• The district had 390 new home closings in 3Q17, the most quarter closings

in more than 10 years

• New home inventory is currently at a healthy 7 month’s supply, due to a

strong quarter of closings 7

Alvin ISD

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Starts Closings

Starts 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Closings 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

1Q 195 143 205 229 314 276 1Q 178 178 156 212 227 265

2Q 204 186 233 299 209 368 2Q 200 168 232 274 246 272

3Q 204 174 252 243 316 362 3Q 193 158 188 244 293 390

4Q 151 163 224 252 262 4Q 182 155 226 228 293

Total 754 666 914 1,023 1,101 1,006 Total 753 659 802 958 1,059 927

Annual Closings 3Q17

8

Top 10 Subdivisions - 3Q17 (Ranked by Annual Closings)

Rank SubdivisionElementary

Zone Annual Closings

Quarter Closings VDL Future

1 SAVANNAH (POMONA) POMONA 183 49 215 804

2 RODEO PALMS JETER 179 84 94 135

3 STERLING LAKES MERIDIANA 170 44 369 3,085

4 MERIDIANA MERIDIANA 148 44 175 5,058

5 SOUTHLAKE YORK 112 33 82 101

6 POMONA POMONA 96 32 256 1,608

7 SEDONA LAKES POMONA 96 31 82 237

8 LAKELAND MASON 88 14 132 202

9 SOUTHERN TRAILS BROTHERS 76 20 38 0

10 KENDALL LAKES TWAIN 39 10 109 70

TOTALS 1,187 361 1,552 11,300

Vacant Delivered Lots 3Q17

9

Top 10 Subdivisions - 3Q17 (Ranked by remaining VDL)

Rank SubdivisionElementary

Zone Annual Closings VDL Future

1 STERLING LAKES MERIDIANA 170 369 3,085

2 POMONA POMONA 96 256 1,608

3 SAVANNAH (POMONA) POMONA 183 215 804

4 MERIDIANA MERIDIANA 148 175 5,058

6 LAKELAND MASON 88 132 202

5 KENDALL LAKES TWAIN 39 109 70

8 RODEO PALMS JETER 179 94 135

7 NEWPORT LAKE ESTATES JETER 0 89 98

9 SOUTHLAKE YORK 112 82 101

10 SEDONA LAKES POMONA 96 82 237

TOTALS 1,111 1,603 11,398

Future Lots 3Q17

10

Top 10 Subdivisions - 3Q17 (Ranked by Future Inventory)

Rank Subdivision Elementary Zone Annual

Closings VDL Future

1 MERIDIANA MERIDIANA 148 175 5,058

2 STERLING LAKES MERIDIANA 170 369 3,085

3 POMONA POMONA 96 256 1,260

4 SAVANNAH (POMONA) POMONA 183 215 1,169

5 SIERRA VISTA MERIDIANA 0 0 732

6 MASSEY OAKS (AISD) HOOD-CASE 0 0 650

7 LACOVIA LAKES MERIDIANA 0 0 440

8 YANNI PALMS JETER 0 0 376

9 BLUEWATER LAKES ON MANVEL MASON 0 0 329

10 MORGAN'S LANDING STEVENSON/DISNEY 1 0 324

TOTALS 598 1,015 13,423

New Home Activity by Elementary Zone

11

ELEMENTARY ATTENDANCE ZONE

Annual Starts

Quarter Starts

Annual Closings

Quarter Closings

Under Const. Inventory

Vacant Dev. Lots Future

ALVIN/ALVIN 31 12 23 12 10 15 79 22

BROTHERS 71 18 76 20 25 38 38 0

DUKE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

HASSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 178

HOOD-CASE 53 18 36 27 19 26 15 1,142

JETER 199 37 179 84 51 76 183 609

MAREK 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

MASON 56 8 88 14 8 13 132 531

MERIDIANA 328 98 321 89 98 205 602 9,315

PASSMORE 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 18

POMONA 414 148 375 112 186 250 553 2,649

SAVANNAH LAKES 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

STEVENSON/DISNEY 4 1 1 0 2 3 6 324

TWAIN 55 15 39 10 24 33 109 118

WILDER 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

YORK 179 40 194 55 50 63 128 101

Grand Total 1,390 395 1,332 423 473 722 1,859 15,024

Highest activity in the category

Second highest activity in the category

Third highest activity in the category

District Housing Overview

12

• The district has more than 1,800 lots available to build on

• Alvin ISD has more than 15,000 planned future lots

• Of those, groundwork is underway on about 800 lots

Residential Activity

13

Pomona

• 2,100 total lots

• 1,608 future lots

• 131 occupied

• 256 VDL

• 81 homes under construction

• 71 starts in 3Q17

• Building 150 – 200 homes in 2018

• $260K-$550K

• Current student yield = 0.53

• Approx. 600 – 650 total elementary

students at build out

• Pomona Elementary


14

Lakes of Savannah

• 3,139 total lots within AISD

• 804 futures within AISD

• 2,021 occupied

• 215 VDL

• 71 U/C

• Started and closed 49 homes in 3Q17


• Additional 365 future lots within Fort

Bend ISD

• 1,610 occupied homes within

Savannah Lakes Elementary, all

homebuilding within Pomona


• Approx. 1,000 total elementary


Fort Bend ISD All housing activity

within Pomona

Elem Zone


15

Rodeo Palms

• 1,465 total lots

• 135 futures

• 1,172 occupied

• 94 VDL

• 40 U/C

• Building 180-200 homes per year

• Built out by the end of 2019

• $180K- $485K


• Jeter Elementary

• Approx. 540 total elementary


Newport Lake Estates

• 199 total lots

• 98 futures

• 89 VDL

• First 12 homes U/C

• First residents expected late 2017/early 2018

• $250K - $400K


• Approx. 70 total elementary students at build out

Yanni Palms

• 376 planned future lots

• Developer in talks with the City of Manvel

• No plats/plans submitted at this time

• Groundwork could start in 2018 pending

plat approval


• Approx. 130 total elementary students at

build out


16

Sedona Lakes

• 864 total lots

• 237 futures

• 490 occupied

• 82 VDL

• 34 U/C


• $300K - $600K


• Pomona Elementary

• Approx. 225 total elementary


Oak Crest of Manvel

• 288 existing manufactured home sites

• Additional 67 lots released summer

2017 and adding homes


• Mason Elementary


17

Meridiana

• 5,501 total lots• 5,058 futures• 153 occupied• 175 VDL• 65 U/C• $250K-$750K• Building 180 – 200 homes in 2018• Current student yield = 0.59• Meridiana Elementary • Approx. 1,900 total elementary



18

Sterling Lakes• 4,682 total lots• 3,085 futures• 1,145 occupied• 369 VDL• 27 U/C• $180K-$460K• Building 150 – 180 homes in

2018• Future Sanchez Elementary in

development, opening Fall 2019

• Current student yield = 0.68• Meridiana Elementary • Approx. 1,640 total elementary



19

Sierra Vista• 732 total future lots• Groundwork underway on Phase 1

with 211 lots • Phase 1 delivering December 2017• First homes starting early 2018• $250K+• Meridiana Elementary• Approx. 250 total elementary


Lacovia Lakes• Approx. 440 future lots• Preliminary plat approved in

November 2016• Homebuilding could start by

late 2019 or early 2020• Split between Meridiana and

Mason Elementary• Approx. 150 total elementary



20

Bluewater Lakes• 330 future lots• Groundwork underway on

Sections 1 & 3 with 128 lots, delivering 4Q17

• First homes occupied early 2018• Beezer Homes• Mason Elementary• Approx. 80 total elementary


Pearland ISD

Massey Oaks• 975 total planned lots on 375 acres• Property was rezoned and annexed into the City of

Pearland in July 2017• At this time, approx. 650 lots fall within AISD• Developer seeking to have entire development

moved into AISD boundary• Pending approval from AISD and Pearland ISD

Boards • Hood-Case Elementary• Approx. 250 total elementary students at build out

Multi-Family Overview

21

Apartment Units Status Impact Elem Zone

1 Shadow Creek Ranch MF 6 340 Under Construction Summer 2018 Wilder

2 Southfork Lake Apartments 329 Complete and Leasing Stud Yield: 0.10 Duke

1

2

Apartment Yield Analysis

22

• Alvin ISD has 1,966 current students residing in 6,663 existing apartment units

• The district’s average apartment yield is 0.30

Manufactured Home Yield Analysis

23

• Alvin ISD has 1,585 current students residing in 1,733 existing manufactured homes

• The district’s average manufactured home community yield is 0.91

Ten Year ForecastBy Grade Level

24

• Alvin ISD may enroll 27,000 students by 2019

• 5 year enrollment growth = 5,938

• 2022/23 enrollment = 30,831

• 10 year enrollment growth = 10,305

• 2027/28 enrollment = 35,198

*Yellow box = largest grade per year*Green box = second largest grade per year

Year (Oct.) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th TotalTotal

Growth %

Growth

2013/14 842 1,657 1,604 1,631 1,517 1,412 1,527 1,469 1,418 1,507 1,524 1,453 1,273 975 19,809

2014/15 852 1,670 1,770 1,676 1,668 1,570 1,504 1,583 1,506 1,484 1,662 1,416 1,429 1,076 20,866 1,057 5.3%

2015/16 844 1,720 1,800 1,855 1,758 1,746 1,612 1,628 1,679 1,564 1,719 1,579 1,419 1,235 22,158 1,292 6.2%

2016/17 851 1,726 1,920 1,880 1,923 1,875 1,853 1,711 1,728 1,762 1,837 1,686 1,607 1,272 23,631 1,473 6.6%

2017/18 819 1,779 1,842 1,985 1,976 2,034 1,981 1,939 1,797 1,803 2,009 1,800 1,675 1,454 24,896 1,265 5.3%

2018/19 819 1,824 1,911 1,927 2,076 2,081 2,145 2,106 2,033 1,878 2,005 1,919 1,770 1,547 26,041 1,145 4.6%

2019/20 819 1,865 1,967 2,000 1,987 2,191 2,180 2,292 2,230 2,140 2,115 1,885 1,869 1,631 27,170 1,129 4.3%

2020/21 819 1,918 1,989 2,058 2,062 2,082 2,300 2,330 2,415 2,350 2,399 2,047 1,857 1,720 28,347 1,177 4.3%

2021/22 819 1,964 2,063 2,088 2,168 2,183 2,203 2,465 2,459 2,540 2,625 2,290 2,010 1,719 29,596 1,250 4.4%

2022/23 819 2,033 2,086 2,136 2,158 2,281 2,289 2,362 2,615 2,597 2,843 2,505 2,246 1,861 30,831 1,235 4.2%

2023/24 819 2,072 2,179 2,163 2,220 2,261 2,391 2,459 2,501 2,770 2,906 2,728 2,463 2,079 32,011 1,179 3.8%

2024/25 819 2,115 2,203 2,282 2,241 2,311 2,366 2,568 2,610 2,647 3,100 2,783 2,678 2,291 33,014 1,003 3.1%

2025/26 819 2,148 2,244 2,297 2,364 2,337 2,429 2,545 2,722 2,766 2,965 2,973 2,734 2,490 33,833 820 2.5%

2026/27 819 2,177 2,277 2,343 2,381 2,463 2,455 2,615 2,702 2,881 3,097 2,847 2,922 2,547 34,526 693 2.0%

2027/28 819 2,235 2,303 2,366 2,415 2,477 2,580 2,645 2,777 2,864 3,226 2,972 2,798 2,722 35,198 672 1.9%

Ten Year Forecast By Elementary Campus

25

• Brothers Elementary opened this fall with 770 students

• Pomona Elementary opened this fall with 402 students

*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated permanent building capacity*Red box = enrollment exceeds stated capacity with temp/flex buildings

Permanent Building Capacity

Cap. W/Temp/ Flex/Bldgs

Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Campus 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28

Alvin Elementary 484 704 547 525 520 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Alvin Primary 702 746 589 592 601 1,131 1,139 1,138 1,142 1,148 1,127 1,146 1,139 1,148

Hood-Case Elementary 750 926 717 671 678 653 657 668 707 715 735 754 765 774

Jeter Elementary 800 888 796 829 851 863 912 971 989 1,007 1,022 1,040 1,058 1,060

Hasse Elementary 800 800 713 769 811 825 834 837 844 832 824 817 809 797

Marek Elementary 800 888 886 765 723 692 663 681 685 707 700 702 721 731

Mark Twain Elementary 800 800 773 783 800 801 826 824 823 824 829 827 831 837

Mason Elementary 653 829 757 695 729 751 788 835 868 867 867 858 854 863

Passmore Elementary 750 838 708 674 675 678 672 678 694 708 709 726 720 699

Savannah Lakes Elementary 800 932 897 844 837 833 839 827 856 868 885 915 944 972

R L Stevenson Elementary 613 745 598 592 590 572 574 568 565 562 580 591 601 615

Walt Disney Elementary 572 572 566 543 526 515 496 498 492 506 484 491 501 512

Wilder Elementary 800 932 937 843 847 833 782 771 751 765 778 786 802 813

York Elementary 800 800 1,005 869 907 930 933 930 908 912 918 923 927 938

Duke Elementary 800 888 908 539 531 542 520 501 497 503 518 531 544 562

Meridiana Elementary 800 800 610 701 802 922 1,029 1,159 1,318 1,429 1,567 1,706 1,829 1,962

Brothers Elementary 800 800 0 770 843 873 881 858 866 868 873 879 885 893

Pomona Elementary 800 800 0 402 499 582 670 731 784 871 908 933 972 1,006

ELEMENTARY TOTALS 13,324 14,688 12,007 12,406 12,770 12,996 13,215 13,475 13,789 14,092 14,324 14,625 14,902 15,182

Elementary Absolute Growth 696 399 367 226 219 260 314 303 232 301 277 280

Elementary Percent Growth 6.15% 3.30% 2.96% 1.77% 1.69% 1.97% 2.33% 2.20% 1.65% 2.10% 1.89% 1.88%

Ten Year ForecastBy Secondary Campus

26

• Junior High #7 is expected to open Fall 2018

• Alvin High School now exceeds capacity with

temporary and flex buildings

*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated permanent building capacity*Red box = enrollment exceeds stated capacity with temp/flex buildings

Permanent Building Capacity

Cap. W/Temp/ Flex/Bldgs

Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Campus 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28

Alvin Junior High 1,000 1,000 831 847 917 945 893 881 857 836 859 854 867 836

Fairview Junior High 1,000 1,000 757 719 790 835 885 899 888 890 917 931 932 919

Harby Junior High 832 904 768 766 786 857 899 931 889 934 940 981 977 988

Rodeo Palms 1,000 1,000 780 970 1,116 1,282 1,432 1,546 1,647 1,697 1,680 1,682 1,702 1,720

Manvel Junior High 1,000 1,000 1,009 1,135 1,238 1,413 1,514 1,716 1,819 1,983 2,055 2,235 2,331 2,442

Ryan Junior High 1,000 1,144 1,055 1,099 1,167 1,327 1,469 1,488 1,471 1,387 1,371 1,347 1,386 1,378

JUNIOR HIGH TOTALS 5,832 6,048 5,200 5,536 6,014 6,659 7,092 7,461 7,571 7,727 7,822 8,030 8,195 8,283

Junior High Absolute Growth 330 336 478 645 433 369 110 156 95 208 165 88

Junior High Percent Growth 6.78% 6.46% 8.63% 10.72% 6.50% 5.20% 1.47% 2.06% 1.23% 2.66% 2.05% 1.07%

Alvin High School 2,640 2,760 2,661 2,763 2,716 2,728 2,818 2,869 3,036 3,116 3,150 3,125 3,118 3,177

Manvel High School 2,685 2,901 2,091 1,832 1,781 1,862 2,040 2,217 2,444 2,694 2,971 3,140 3,399 3,621

Shadow Creek High School 2,500 2,500 1,470 2,194 2,567 2,738 3,000 3,387 3,806 4,197 4,561 4,728 4,727 4,750

HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 7,825 8,161 6,222 6,789 7,064 7,328 7,858 8,473 9,286 10,007 10,682 10,993 11,244 11,548

High School Absolute Growth 450 567 275 264 530 615 813 721 675 311 251 304

High School Percent Growth 7.80% 9.11% 4.05% 3.74% 7.23% 7.83% 9.60% 7.76% 6.75% 2.91% 2.28% 2.70%

Assets 300 300 197 159 187 181 176 181 179 179 180 179 179 179

Brazoria Co. J JAEP 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

ALTERNATIVE TOTALS 300 300 202 165 193 187 182 187 185 185 186 185 185 186

DISTRICT TOTALS 27,281 29,197 23,631 24,896 26,041 27,170 28,347 29,596 30,831 32,011 33,014 33,833 34,526 35,198

District Absolute Growth 1,473 1,265 1,145 1,129 1,177 1,250 1,235 1,179 1,003 820 693 673

District Percent Growth 6.6% 5.3% 4.6% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.2% 3.8% 3.1% 2.5% 2.0% 1.9%

Summary

• Alvin ISD has more than 1,300 new home closings in to date in 2017.

• The median new home price within Alvin ISD is nearly $324,000.

• 5 subdivisions within Alvin ISD had more than 100 closings in the last year.

• Brothers Elementary opened this fall with about 770 students, and Pomona Elementary opened with 402 students.

• Five-year enrollment growth of 5,938 students, with a fall 2022 enrollment of 30,831.

• Ten-Year enrollment growth of 10,305 students with a fall 2027 enrollment of 35,198.

27

alvin demographic independent update school fall 2017 · were new homes • the average sale price...

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