alvinisdenrollmentforecast springupdate · 11 pasadena*isd 2,914 12 new*caneyisd 2,880 13...
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Alvin ISD Enrollment Forecast Spring Update
April 9th, 2013
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Economic Condi@ons • Texas gained 359,800 jobs between February 2012 and February 2013.
Con@nuing to lead the na@on in job growth. • Houston MSA job growth = 86,000 jobs added between Feb. 2012-‐Feb.
2013. • Unemployment rates -‐ Texas Labor Market Review (Feb.)
-‐ U.S. 8.1% -‐ Texas 6.5% -‐ Brazoria County 6.4% -‐ Houston MSA 6.3%
• Texas sales tax receipts for February 2013 were 3.7 percent higher than February 2012. (Texas Comptroller)
• Sales tax collec@ons have increased for 35 consecu2ve months (year-‐over-‐year). (Texas Comptroller)
• Oil and natural gas produc@on tax collec@ons for the first six months of fiscal 2013 were 12.6 percent higher than during the same period in 2012. (Texas Comptroller)
New Home Ranking Report Metrostudy 4Q12
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Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future1 Katy ISD 3,274 3,136 2,722 3,6462 Cypress-‐Fairbanks ISD 2,808 2,589 3,655 6,7133 Houston ISD 2,303 2,131 3,383 4,1064 Fort Bend ISD 2,501 2,064 3,462 4,8415 Conroe ISD 1,596 1,497 2,926 3,9536 Lamar CISD 1,471 1,383 2,818 3,2497 Tomball ISD 1,315 1,266 2,101 2,4218 Klein ISD 1,373 1,223 2,618 3,2329 Humble ISD 1,282 1,192 2,411 3,50810 Alvin ISD 733 751 1,370 11,07711 Clear Creek ISD 673 680 1,204 55912 Aldine ISD 499 419 1,638 4,35913 Spring ISD 413 386 1,781 2,61614 New Caney ISD 419 359 666 2,03615 Goose Creek ISD 312 324 767 53016 Pasadena ISD 307 236 505 73217 Magnolia ISD 205 235 1,034 2,32518 Dickinson ISD 245 217 878 59219 Spring Branch ISD 233 181 432 59020 Sheldon ISD 152 169 508 2,593
Rank NAME 5 Year Change1 Cypress-‐Fairbanks ISD 13,1722 Katy ISD 10,1593 Conroe ISD 7,4014 Aldine ISD 5,6015 Lamar Cons ISD 4,1896 Humble ISD 4,1227 Klein ISD 4,1088 Houston ISD 3,7969 Alvin ISD 3,55910 Clear Creek ISD 3,31711 Pasadena ISD 2,91412 New Caney ISD 2,88013 Spring ISD 2,84414 Spring Branch ISD 2,81115 Pearland ISD 2,56116 Tomball ISD 2,38317 College Station ISD 1,97618 Sheldon ISD 1,75419 Fort Bend ISD 1,58620 Dickinson ISD 1,52121 Goose Creek ISD 1,46822 Montgomery ISD 1,09623 Galena Park ISD 99824 Magnolia ISD 94325 Barbers Hill ISD 840
Houston Area Enrollment Change 2007/08 -‐ 2012/13
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New Home Ranking Report Metrostudy 4Q12
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12
Starts
Closings
Starts 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Closings 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1Q 117 182 136 195 1Q 173 145 116 178 2Q 228 145 165 187 204 2Q 217 188 163 189 200 3Q 222 148 196 182 202 3Q 252 195 211 200 194 4Q 180 160 147 171 132 4Q 210 189 163 203 179
Total 630 570 690 676 733 Total 679 745 682 708 751
8% increase in annual starts over 2011.
City of Alvin Residential Permit Activity BY School Year (Oct.-Sept) 03/04 112 04/05 137 05/06 201 06/07 131 07/08 88 08/09 53 09/10 66 10/11 117 11/12 46 12/13 YTD 29
Historical Subdivision Survey
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Historical Subdivision Survey
City of Manvel Residential Permit Activity • 2005 – 234 • 2006 – 175 • 2007 – 175 • 2008 – 119 • 2009 – 87 • 2010 – 178 • 2011 – 148 • 2012 – 213 • 2013 – 46 YTD
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Subdivision Survey and Construc@on Report by A_endance Level
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• Most active elementary zones annual starts = Jeter, York and Wilder • Highest future lots = Jeter and Mason
ELEMENTARY ATTENDANCE ZONEAnnual Starts
Quarter Starts
Annual Closings
Quarter Closings
Finished Vacant
Under Const. Inventory
Vacant Dev. Lots Future
Alvin Primary/Elementary 11 0 18 5 1 4 6 37 165Hood-‐Case Elementary 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 66 639Jeter Elementary 181 0 195 42 19 55 77 412 5,662Longfellow Elementary 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 47 178Marek Elementary 8 0 4 0 0 7 7 1 0Mason Elementary 68 0 59 12 12 28 47 204 2,946Passmore Elementary 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 16 18Savannah Lakes Elementary 85 0 73 17 25 36 66 254 77Stevenson Primary/Disney Elementary 6 0 5 0 0 3 3 27 359Twain Elementary 28 0 30 11 3 6 11 105 301Wilder Elementary 171 0 183 40 25 35 66 113 132York Elementary 174 0 183 52 23 52 81 88 600
TOTALS 733 0 751 179 108 228 366 1,370 11,077
TD added Future lot totals in 5 developments which were not included in the metrostudy report.Southfork 600Twinwood 2,100Blue Water Place 150Lakeland Subdivision 649Southpoint Crossing 1,484 4,983
Alvin ISD – 4Q12 Annual Closings > 50
Total Inventory
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86% of all closings last year occurred in these 7 developments.
Rank Subdivis ionElementary
Zone Annual Clos ings
Quarter Clos ings F/V U/C Inventory VDL Future
1 Sterl ing Lakes JETER 162 33 18 31 51 151 2,3002 Shadow Creek Ranch -‐ Wi lderWILDER 102 16 11 13 25 2 03 Southfork YORK 93 32 16 35 55 66 04 Southern Tra i l s West -‐ YorkYORK 81 18 7 16 25 14 05 Southern Tra i l s -‐ WILDER WILDER 81 24 14 22 41 111 1326 Savannah Lakes SAVANNAH LAKES 72 17 20 34 59 97 777 Sedona Lakes MASON 57 12 12 19 37 51 6758 Rodeo Palms JETER 33 9 1 24 26 261 8729 Kendal l Lakes TWAIN 17 10 1 5 7 38 30110 Mustang Cross ing ALVIN 15 5 0 3 4 3 0
TOTALS 713 176 100 202 330 794 4,357
Alvin ISD – 4Q12 Most Inventory
Annual Closings
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Rank Subdivis ionElementary
Zone Annual Clos ings
Quarter Clos ings F/V U/C Inventory VDL
1 Savannah Lakes SAVANNAH LAKES 72 17 20 34 59 972 Southfork YORK 93 32 16 35 55 663 Sterl ing Lakes JETER 162 33 18 31 51 1514 Southern Tra i l s -‐ WILDER WILDER 81 24 14 22 41 1115 Sedona Lakes MASON 57 12 12 19 37 516 Rodeo Palms JETER 33 9 1 24 26 2617 Southern Tra i l s West -‐ YorkYORK 81 18 7 16 25 148 Shadow Creek Ranch -‐ Wi lderWILDER 102 16 11 13 25 2
Alvin ISD – 4Q12 VDL – Top Ten
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Vacant Developed Lots
80% of all VDL are represented in the top 10 developments.
Note: Cold River Ranch, Lakeland and Forest Heights have had no activity for several years.
Rank Subdivis ionElementary
Zone Annual Clos ings
Quarter Clos ings F/V U/C Inventory VDL Future
1 Rodeo Palms JETER 33 9 1 24 26 261 8722 Cold River Ranch SAVANNAH LAKES 1 0 5 2 7 157 03 Sterl ing Lakes JETER 162 33 18 31 51 151 2,3004 Southern Tra i l s -‐ WILDER WILDER 81 24 14 22 41 111 1325 Savannah Lakes SAVANNAH LAKES 72 17 20 34 59 97 776 Lakeland MASON 0 0 0 5 5 81 07 North Pointe Tra i l s TWAIN 13 1 2 1 4 67 08 Forest Heights HOOD-‐CASE 0 0 0 0 0 66 2369 Southfork YORK 93 32 16 35 55 66 010 Sedona Lakes MASON 57 12 12 19 37 51 0
TOTALS 512 128 88 173 285 1,108 3,617
Alvin ISD – 4Q12 Future Inventory – Top Ten
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Rank Subdivis ionElementary
Zone Annual Clos ings
Quarter Clos ings F/V U/C Inventory VDL Future
1 Sterl ing Lakes JETER 162 33 18 31 51 151 2,3002 Twinwood JETER 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,1003 SouthPointe Cross ing Mason 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,4844 Lakes of Savannah Savannah 72 17 20 34 59 97 1,5006 Rodeo Palms JETER 33 9 1 24 26 261 8725 Sedona Lakes Mason 57 12 12 19 37 51 6758 Southlake York 0 0 0 0 0 0 6007 Lakeland MASON 0 0 0 5 5 81 5689 Seven Oaks Ranch MASON 0 0 0 0 0 0 53010 Kendal l Lakes TWAIN 17 10 1 5 7 38 301
TOTALS 341 81 52 118 185 679 10,930
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Lakeland concept plan potential for 649 lots could impact district in 2013.
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1484 SF lots Could impact the district in 2015 or 2016.
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722 lots – 600 in Alvin ISD York Attendance Zone
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^JETER
288 CR101
Southfork
Twinwood development = 2,100 lots possible delivery 2014
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Total Lot Count 920 57 Closed in 2012 19 Under Construction 12 Finished Vacant VDL down to 51 lots
Lakes of Savannah • Very Ac@ve New Sec@on • 72 Closed in 2012 • 34 Under Construc@on – 4Q12 • 28 Finished Vacant-‐ 4Q12 • VDL down to 97 • Aprox. 1,500 lots planned North of CR 58 as per developer • Planned Build-‐out to exceed 3,000 homes
CR 58
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Enclave at Southern Trails -‐ West • 354 Homes complete • 16 Under Construc@on • Housing Inventory down to 25 • Only 14 VDL Remain
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Enrollment History Fall Data
• Yellow box = Largest grade total • Green box = second largest total
Year (Oct.)Other/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total
Total Growth %
2007/08 654 1,240 1,229 1,314 1,135 1,181 1,130 1,040 1,129 1,089 1,336 1,144 947 761 15,3292008/09 703 1,294 1,294 1,269 1,334 1,164 1,232 1,186 1,129 1,172 1,335 1,170 1,035 852 16,169 840 5.5%2009/10 719 1,280 1,428 1,335 1,301 1,366 1,197 1,267 1,210 1,146 1,413 1,201 1,000 925 16,788 619 3.8%2010/11 791 1,305 1,407 1,401 1,349 1,308 1,398 1,247 1,313 1,253 1,346 1,227 1,139 883 17,367 579 3.4%2011/12 833 1,478 1,428 1,422 1,434 1,379 1,338 1,450 1,299 1,345 1,428 1,196 1,221 958 18,209 842 4.8%
Fall 2012/13 886 1,509 1,540 1,465 1,403 1,481 1,433 1,378 1,474 1,339 1,538 1,310 1,138 998 18,892 683 3.8%Spring 2013 914 1,538 1,558 1,477 1,412 1,478 1,445 1,389 1,486 1,337 1,526 1,223 1,135 1,037 18,955 63
Year (Oct.) Elem. grw M.S. grw H.S. grw Total grw2007/08 7,883 3,258 4,188 15,3292008/09 8,290 407 3,487 229 4,392 204 16,169 8402009/10 8,626 336 3,623 136 4,539 147 16,788 6192010/11 8,959 333 3,813 190 4,595 56 17,367 5792011/12 9,312 353 4,094 281 4,803 208 18,209 842Fall 2012 9,717 405 4,191 97 4,984 181 18,892 683
Spring 2013 9,822 105 4,212 21 4,921 -‐63 18,955 63
• Elementary grades have grown over 100 students since the fall of 2012. • Middle grades have grown 21 students since the fall of 2012. • High school grades have decreased 63 students since fall of 2012.
Alvin ISD in position to add over 4,455 students by the spring 2018 and top 23,000 total enrollment in the school year 2017/2018.
18,955 19,743 20,675 21,575 22,443 23,410
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
Enrollment Forecast
Five Year Enrollment Projections
Five Year Forecast Current PROJECTIONS
ELEMENTARY CAMPUSES 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18Alvin Elementary 484 684 552 551 535 554 551 563Alvin Primary 702 742 689 687 695 692 695 697Hood-‐Case Elementary 750 910 746 759 784 808 854 862Jeter Elementary 800 880 814 894 967 1,044 1,127 1,217Longfel low Elementary 622 822 500 528 545 573 597 621Marek Elementary 800 880 904 922 939 963 966 954Mark Twain Elementary 800 800 776 829 862 899 933 966Mason Elementary 653 813 664 694 730 790 856 912Passmore Elementary 750 814 712 699 695 707 686 694Savannah Lakes Elementary 800 920 782 848 911 966 1,038 1,087Stevenson Primary 613 733 631 631 634 642 643 643Walt Disney Elementary 572 572 494 525 520 524 524 528Wilder Elementary 800 920 834 892 948 1,015 1,090 1,158York Elementary 800 800 706 786 889 1,006 1,118 1,227ELEMENTARY TOTALS 9,946 11,290 9,804 10,245 10,654 11,183 11,678 12,129Elementary Growth 517 441 409 529 496 451
Permanent Bui lding Capaci ty
Cap. W/Temp/Flex/
Bldgs
Five Year Enrollment Projections
Five Year Forecast Current PROJECTIONS
SECONDARY CAMPUSES 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18Alvin Junior High 724 884 759 803 803 802 819 798Fairview Junior High 1,000 1,000 902 904 878 846 858 843Harby Junior High 832 912 637 644 665 696 685 704Manvel Jr High @ Rodeo Palms 1,000 1,000 847 887 939 1,022 1,102 1,232Ryan Junior High 1,000 1,122 1,067 1,170 1,239 1,290 1,369 1,493Future Junior HighJUNIOR HIGH TOTALS 4,556 4,918 4,212 4,408 4,524 4,656 4,833 5,070Junior High Growth 145 196 116 132 177 237HIGH SCHOOL CAMPUSAlvin High School 2,640 2,760 2,396 2,371 2,496 2,506 2,517 2,578Manvel High School 2,500 2,500 2,315 2,504 2,786 3,011 3,198 3,416
HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 5,140 5,260 4,711 4,875 5,282 5,517 5,715 5,994High School Growth 55 164 407 235 198 279Day Care 0 0 0 0 0 0Alvin Reach School 0 0 0 0 0 0Assets 300 300 227 212 212 217 213 214Brazoria Co. J JAEP 1 3 3 3 3 3ALTERNATIVE TOTALS 300 300 228 215 215 220 216 217DISTRICT TOTALS 19,942 21,768 18,955 19,743 20,675 21,575 22,443 23,410GROWTH 746 788 932 901 867 967Percent Growth 4.1% 4.2% 4.7% 4.4% 4.0% 4.3%
Permanent Bui lding Capaci ty
Cap. W/Temp/Flex/
Bldgs
Summary Posi2ves • Texas economy con@nues to out perform the na@on. • Houston #1 job growth city in the country. • Texas Annual Job Growth areas (Feb. 2013 – Feb. 2012): 359,800 nonagricultural • Housing market showing strong growth in new construc@on and increasing values.
Concerns • Vacant Lot Supply – Addi2onal lots are needed to con2nue current pace of construc2on. Alvin ISD • A ISD new housing under construc@on increased from fall review. • Spring 2014 enrollment growth of 4.2% with an increase of 788 students. Spring 2014 enrollment =
19,743. • Five year enrollment growth of 4,455 with Spring 2018 enrollment = 23,410. • New housing will con@nue to be the strongest in the western por@on of the district. • Ten-‐Year enrollment growth 9,732 plus students. • Elementary campus needs during the next ten-‐years 6-‐7 addi@onal campuses. • Middle School campus needs during the next ten-‐years 2 addi@onal campuses. • High School campus needs during the next ten-‐years 1 addi@onal campus.
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