amarach economic recovery index july 2012

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

July 2012

© Amárach Research


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out three years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

Our tracking research has shown the

remarkable emotional strength of the Irish

people, who have consistently reported

‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most

frequently experienced emotions.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

July 2012.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 13th to 19th July 2012 inclusive.


A Matter of Measurement

June’12: 50% July’12: 42%

June’12: 29% July’12: 31%

June’12: 20% July’12: 23%

June’12: 1% July’12: 3%

June’12: 0% July’12: 1%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

The economic outlook has bounced back to the level last seen in March:


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

The ERI rose to 22.5 in July, similar to the recent high of 22.3 in March 2012:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, July 2012

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Apr'09

Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'10

MayJune July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'11

MayJune July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12

Feb Mar Apr'12

MayJune July


Recovery Outlook 1

% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:


34%41%44% 42%43%

46%48%

41%43%

52%

41% 42%43% 42%42%

42%39%

31%26%18%

23%26%24%25%24%28%

23%26%24%26%26%23%22%21%26%

30%31%25%25%27%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly

57% 59%65%

58% 60%62%

55%

51%

51%

61%

55%54%52% 53%

54%55%

50% 46%44%

33%41%

48%44%

48%47%53%

47%48%48%47%49%42%39%

45%44%50%51%

47%43%45%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly


Fainter Hearted

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time”


July 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1002 495 507 169 223 188 156 266 478 523

Strongly Agree 7% 8% 7% 11% 10% 9% 4% 4% 7% 7%

Slightly Agree 19% 22% 17% 26% 19% 21% 17% 16% 20% 19%

Neither/Nor 10% 11% 10% 15% 14% 10% 10% 6% 10% 11%

Slightly Disagree 23% 23% 23% 23% 25% 22% 22% 23% 24% 22%

Strongly Disagree 34% 34% 34% 20% 26% 33% 42% 45% 33% 35%


Recovery Outlook 2



48%48%51% 47%48%48%46%

45%45%50%

47% 43%47%45%

45%

47%

46%41%41%

32%34%39%37%36%39%40%

34%39%

34%38%38%34%33%37%41%40%42%38%36%38%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly

59%

62% 61%60%61%60%56%

52%

56%55%53% 55%

53%51%50%

55%

54%

53%

52% 45%45%49%45%47%48%50%44%

49%46%49%45%45%43%46%49%48%50%45%45%43%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'10

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly


Feeling Uncomfortable


“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1002 495 507 169 223 188 156 266 478 523

Strongly Agree 9% 11% 8% 10% 7% 10% 5% 13% 11% 8%

Slightly Agree 29% 30% 28% 28% 28% 29% 23% 34% 32% 26%

Neither/Nor 12% 13% 12% 16% 17% 10% 10% 10% 13% 12%




Recovery Outlook 3



43% 43%42%46%

35%40%39%

30%35% 36%

33%28%27%

14%18%

25%

20%

21% 17%25%

20% 16%11%

16% 15% 13% 12% 12% 16%23% 24%

14% 12%17%

Oc

t '0

9

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly

22%

22% 21% 22% 21% 18%23%

20%

20% 21%21%18%

20%13%

15%

18%

17%

17%

17%

21% 17% 19% 16% 15% 15% 18% 15% 15% 19% 22% 25%19% 17%20%

Oc

t '0

9

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'10

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

I am less worried about losing my job than I was before: % agree strongly/slightly


% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: July 2010, 2011, 2012 & June 2012

20% 17% 15% 18%

July'10 July'11 June'12 July'12

I am more relaxed about spendingmoney than I was a few months ago

64% 62% 63% 66%


Now is a good time to buy a house for those

who want to

27% 26% 25% 25%


I am saving a lot more than before because of

the recession

30% 26% 23% 25%


I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I

need to

62% 59% 55% 56%


Paying off debts is my main financial priority

Impact on:

•Spending

•Saving

•Debt

•Borrowing

Financial Sentiment Indicators



De-Leveraging


“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1002 495 507 169 223 188 156 266 478 523

Strongly Agree 5% 7% 4% 9% 7% 4% 1% 5% 5% 6%

Slightly Agree 12% 13% 11% 13% 16% 13% 8% 11% 13% 12%

Neither/Nor 18% 21% 16% 26% 15% 14% 17% 21% 19% 18%




The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2012


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'10

May

Jun

e

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'11

May

Jun

e

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr'12

May

Jun

e

July

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2012


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r '1

0

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r '1

1

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r'1

2

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Changing Moods



F50+

C2DE

F50-

1002 495 507 169 223 188 156 266 478 523

Enjoyment 58% 60% 56% 63% 53% 51% 60% 63% 63% 53%

Happiness 52% 52% 52% 52% 56% 54% 48% 50% 54% 50%

Stress 39% 38% 40% 41% 48% 47% 38% 25% 41% 37%

Worry 35% 33% 37% 36% 41% 40% 36% 26% 36% 34%

Anxiety 27% 26% 27% 28% 30% 29% 25% 23% 31% 23%

Boredom 27% 28% 27% 53% 28% 24% 20% 17% 27% 27%

Physical Pain 22% 22% 22% 22% 17% 20% 24% 26% 21% 23%

Sadness 19% 15% 23% 19% 23% 14% 16% 21% 20% 18%

Anger 15% 15% 15% 16% 19% 16% 11% 10% 16% 13%

Fear 10% 9% 10% 15% 10% 12% 8% 5% 12% 7%


% saying Yes: July 2012


Better News From Abroad

There was a marked improvement in consumer

sentiment in July – buoyed up it would seem by

the EU Summit at the end of June which

promises a better deal for Ireland.

This is shown in the rise in the percentage of

people in our survey who are more optimistic as

a result of ‘news from abroad’.

After June’s pessimistic turn it is encouraging to

see a return to levels of positivity seen at the

start of the year – but it’s all relative: the start of

the year wasn’t all that great…

Nevertheless, Irish marketers and business

people need all the positivity they can get right

now, and our latest Economic Recovery Index

provides at least some brightness despite the

dull summer weather.


Let’s Get Visual

If you find Amárach’s Economic

Recovery Index useful (and we

know many of you do) then you

might be interested in our data

visualisation initiative with

Delphi Analytics.

We have partnered to create

an extraordinarily powerful

resource online – for free – to

enable marketers and others to

look at the historical trend in

the ERI going back to April

2009 by demographic group,

main bank etc.

Find out more here: http://delphianalytics.ie/visual-

analytics/economic-recovery-index/

Drivers & Drinking

About Amárach Research

We are an independent market research

agency, providing a full range of research

services to our Irish and international

clients. We specialise in turning information

into insight; and insight into foresight.

Our experienced team of directors and

executives manage online, face-to-face and

cati surveys; as well as qualitative research

including focus groups, in-depths and

ethnographic studies. We also offer a

unique field-only service to universities and

international agencies.

Amárach Research is proud to be:

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to

bounce forward to success:

Mark Nolan Managing Director

or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive

or Gerard O’Neill Chairman

for a confidential discussion about your needs and to

explore how we can help you succeed through world

class market research.

e. [email protected]

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

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