amcor limited asx code: amc price: $14.06 12 mth target ... · business summary amcor limited (amc)...

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Business Summary Amcor Limited (AMC) is a global packaging company with operations across Australasia, North America, Latin America, Europe and Asia. AMC offers a range of packaging related products and services, including packaging for beverages, food, healthcare, personal and homecare, tobacco, and industrial applications. Rigid Plastics: This division manufactures rigid plastic containers from various materials for a range of beverage and food products; including carbonated soft drinks, water, juices, sports drinks, milk-based beverages, spirits and beer, sauces, dressings, spreads, personal care items and plastic caps for a variety of applications. Flexibles Packaging: The division represents the aggregation of three operating segments: Amcor Flexibles Europe & Americas which provides packaging for the food and beverage industry including confectionery, coffee, fresh food and dairy, pet food packaging, champagne and wine closures and also provides packaging for the pharmaceutical sector; Amcor Tobacco Packaging which manufactures flexible packaging for specialty folding cartons for tobacco packaging; and Amcor Flexibles Asia Pacific which provides packaging for the food and beverage industry including confectionery, coffee, fresh food and dairy and also provides packaging for the pharmaceutical sector and home and personal care. AMVIG (47.9%): Amcor holds 47.9% of AMVIG Holdings Limited (AMVIG), a company principally involved in the manufacture of tobacco packaging. AMVIG has plants across Asia. AMVIG has a 13% share of the tobacco packaging market in China. AMC also has interests in Discma AG (Discma), who is involve in the development and licensing of packaging and product innovations. Latest Research FY18 guidance downgraded as headwinds persist Flexibles plastics industry consolidation continues apace with the news earlier this week of the sale of Coveris’ Flexible America’s business to Canadian-listed Transcontinental. In our view, the strategic push to pivot away from newsprint may have been the dominant driver for Transcontinental. From a financial standpoint, we believe the deal was completed at a high valuation and would have struggled to meet AMC’s hurdle rates. AMC’s financial discipline is to be commended, but high valuations appear to be challenging a key stock catalyst. Stay Neutral rated. For more information see research 04 May 2018. GICS - Materials Amcor Limited ASX Code: AMC Price: $13.89 12 Mth Target Price: $14.85 Rating: Neutral Important Disclaimer - This may affect your legal rights: Because this document has been prepared without consideration of any specific client's financial situation, particular needs and investment objectives, a Bell Potter Securities Limited investment adviser (or the financial services licensee, or the proper authority of such licensee, who has provided you with this report by arrangement with Bell Potter Securities Limited) should be consulted before any investment decision is made. While this document is based on the information from sources which are considered reliable, Bell Potter Securities Limited, its directors, employees and consultants do not represent, warrant or guarantee, expressly or impliedly, that the information contained in this document is complete or accurate. Nor does Bell Potter Securities Limited accept any responsibility to inform you of any matter that subsequently comes to its notice, which may affect any of the information contained in this document. This document is a private communication to clients and is not intended for public circulation or for the use of any third party, without the prior approval of Bell Potter Securities Limited. This is general investment advice only and does not constitute advice to any person. Disclosure of Interest: Bell Potter Securities Limited receives commission from dealing in securities and its authorised representatives, or introducers of business, may directly share in this commission. Bell Potter Securities and its associates may hold shares in the companies recommended. Snapshot Date Market Cap. Shares on issue 12 Month High 12 Month Low 6 July 2018 $16,087m 1,158.1m $16.78 $13.12 Rating Rating 12 Mth Target Price Capital Gain Gross Yield Implied Total Return Neutral $14.85 5.3% 4.7% 10.0% Investment Fundamentals FYE 30 Jun 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F Profit $m 930.0 934.0 1,061.0 1,169.0 Profit (norm)* $m 930.0 934.0 1,061.0 1,169.0 EPS* ¢ 80.0 81.0 92.0 101.0 EPS Growth % 1.3 1.2 13.6 9.8 P/E* x 17.6 17.4 15.3 14.0 P/E Relative % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 DPS ¢ 57.0 58.0 66.0 72.0 Yield % 4.0 4.1 4.7 5.1 Franking % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 * Adjusted for goodwill and unusual items Source: Based on Citi estimates Share Price Chart Total Return on $10,000 Investment

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Business SummaryAmcor Limited (AMC) is a global packaging company with operations acrossAustralasia, North America, Latin America, Europe and Asia. AMC offers arange of packaging related products and services, including packaging forbeverages, food, healthcare, personal and homecare, tobacco, and industrialapplications.

Rigid Plastics: This division manufactures rigid plastic containers fromvarious materials for a range of beverage and food products; includingcarbonated soft drinks, water, juices, sports drinks, milk-based beverages,spirits and beer, sauces, dressings, spreads, personal care items and plasticcaps for a variety of applications.

Flexibles Packaging: The division represents the aggregation of threeoperating segments: Amcor Flexibles Europe & Americas which providespackaging for the food and beverage industry including confectionery, coffee,fresh food and dairy, pet food packaging, champagne and wine closures andalso provides packaging for the pharmaceutical sector; Amcor TobaccoPackaging which manufactures flexible packaging for specialty foldingcartons for tobacco packaging; and Amcor Flexibles Asia Pacific whichprovides packaging for the food and beverage industry includingconfectionery, coffee, fresh food and dairy and also provides packaging forthe pharmaceutical sector and home and personal care.

AMVIG (47.9%): Amcor holds 47.9% of AMVIG Holdings Limited (AMVIG), acompany principally involved in the manufacture of tobacco packaging.AMVIG has plants across Asia. AMVIG has a 13% share of the tobaccopackaging market in China. AMC also has interests in Discma AG (Discma),who is involve in the development and licensing of packaging and productinnovations.

Latest ResearchFY18 guidance downgraded as headwinds persist

Flexibles plastics industry consolidation continues apace with the newsearlier this week of the sale of Coveris’ Flexible America’s business toCanadian-listed Transcontinental. In our view, the strategic push to pivotaway from newsprint may have been the dominant driver forTranscontinental. From a financial standpoint, we believe the deal wascompleted at a high valuation and would have struggled to meet AMC’shurdle rates. AMC’s financial discipline is to be commended, but high

valuations appear to be challenging a key stock catalyst. Stay Neutralrated.

For more information see research 04 May 2018.

GICS - Materials

Amcor Limited

ASX Code: AMC Price: $13.89 12 Mth Target Price: $14.85 Rating: Neutral

Important Disclaimer - This may affect your legal rights: Because this document has been prepared without consideration of any specific client's financial situation, particular needs and investmentobjectives, a Bell Potter Securities Limited investment adviser (or the financial services licensee, or the proper authority of such licensee, who has provided you with this report by arrangement withBell Potter Securities Limited) should be consulted before any investment decision is made. While this document is based on the information from sources which are considered reliable, Bell PotterSecurities Limited, its directors, employees and consultants do not represent, warrant or guarantee, expressly or impliedly, that the information contained in this document is complete or accurate.Nor does Bell Potter Securities Limited accept any responsibility to inform you of any matter that subsequently comes to its notice, which may affect any of the information contained in this document.This document is a private communication to clients and is not intended for public circulation or for the use of any third party, without the prior approval of Bell Potter Securities Limited. This is generalinvestment advice only and does not constitute advice to any person.Disclosure of Interest: Bell Potter Securities Limited receives commission from dealing in securities and its authorised representatives, or introducers of business, may directly share in thiscommission. Bell Potter Securities and its associates may hold shares in the companies recommended.

Snapshot

DateMarket Cap.Shares on issue12 Month High12 Month Low

6 July 2018$16,087m1,158.1m$16.78$13.12

RatingRating12 Mth Target Price

Capital GainGross Yield

Implied Total Return

Neutral$14.855.3%4.7%10.0%

Investment FundamentalsFYE 30 Jun 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F

Profit $m 930.0 934.0 1,061.0 1,169.0Profit (norm)* $m 930.0 934.0 1,061.0 1,169.0

EPS* ¢ 80.0 81.0 92.0 101.0EPS Growth % 1.3 1.2 13.6 9.8P/E* x 17.6 17.4 15.3 14.0P/E Relative % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

DPS ¢ 57.0 58.0 66.0 72.0Yield % 4.0 4.1 4.7 5.1Franking % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0* Adjusted for goodwill and unusual itemsSource: Based on Citi estimates

Share Price Chart

Total Return on $10,000 Investment

Profit & Loss ($M)2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A

Sales Revenue 12,425 10,853 12,515 12,687 11,832Total Revenue ex. Int. 12,612 10,980 12,694 12,811 11,956EBITDA 1,610 1,753 1,899 1,912 1,890Depreciation & Amort. -476 -410 -462 -477 -466Goodwill Amortisation -- -- -- -- --EBIT 1,134 1,344 1,437 1,435 1,424Net Interest -220 -210 -220 -225 -243Profit Before Tax 914 1,134 1,217 1,210 1,180Income Tax -196 -139 -245 -253 -238Outside Equity Int. -28 -32 -36 -40 -22Profit after Tax 690 790 936 917 920Significant Items after Tax -89 -226 -50 -589 -144Reported Profit after Tax 601 565 886 329 776Preferred Dividends -- -- -- -- --

Cash Flow ($M)2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A

Receipts from Customers -- -- -- -- --Funds from Operations -- -- -- -- --Net Operating Cashflow 1,046 1,191 1,305 1,480 1,336Capex -476 -362 -421 -470 -493Acquisitions & Investments -222 -118 -128 -671 -437Sale of Invest. & Subsid. 21 26 1 2 --Net Investing Cashflow -589 -510 -437 -1,343 -822Proceeds from Issues 87 52 60 53 31Dividends Paid -478 -496 -625 -647 -636Net Financing Cashflow -425 -534 -616 -171 -438Net Increase Cash 32 147 252 -33 75Cash at Beginning 322 366 658 939 667Exchange Rate Adjust. 12 23 -2 -215 -18Cash at End 366 536 908 691 725

Ratios and Substantial Shareholders2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A

Profitability RatiosEBITDA Margin % 12.96 16.16 15.18 15.07 15.97EBIT Margin % 9.12 12.38 11.48 11.31 12.03Net Profit Margin % 5.55 8.87 7.48 7.23 7.78Return on Equity % 19.11 44.67 49.02 86.91 86.14Return on Assets % 7.00 11.81 10.16 9.54 9.40

Debt/Safety RatiosNet Debt/Equity % 107.20 140.87 181.50 452.92 454.25Interest Cover x 5.15 6.39 6.52 6.39 5.86

Top 5 Substantial ShareholdersBlackRock Group 8.1%Invesco Australia Limited 5.0%

Balance Sheet ($M)2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A

Cash & Equivalent 395 541 918 694 730Receivables 1,830 1,483 1,804 1,804 1,726Inventories 1,815 1,411 1,581 1,676 1,697Other Current Assets 158 97 141 126 119Current Assets 4,198 3,532 4,444 4,300 4,273Prop. Plant & Equipment 4,883 3,100 3,342 3,624 3,595Intangibles 2,301 2,119 2,403 2,831 3,132Other Non-Current Assets 268 204 141 126 119Non-Current Assets 8,224 6,166 6,685 7,392 7,536Total Assets 12,421 9,697 11,129 11,691 11,809Interest Bearing Debt 4,362 3,740 4,668 5,851 5,995Other Liabilities 4,358 3,686 4,394 4,702 4,655Total Liabilities 8,720 7,426 9,063 10,553 10,650Net Assets 3,701 2,271 2,066 1,139 1,159Share Capital 3,821 2,885 2,188 1,946 1,842Reserves -776 -1,356 -868 -1,078 -1,146Retained Earnings 562 625 589 187 373Outside Equity Int. 94 116 157 83 90Total Shareholders Equity 3,701 2,271 2,066 1,139 1,159

Current Analyst Recommendations *

* Source: Morningstar. This chart shows the spread of recommendations from thosebroker analyst's in Australia with research coverage of this stock.

Principals & DirectorsPrincipals

Company Secretary Ms Julie McphersonMr Ryan Hellman

Directors

Mr Jeremy Leigh Sutcliffe(Non-Executive Director)Mr Graeme Richard Liebelt(Non-Executive Chairman,Non-ExecutiveDirector)Ms Eva Cheng(Non-Executive Director)Mr Paul Vincent Brasher(Non-Executive Director)Mrs Karen Jane Guerra(Non-Executive Director)Dr Armin Meyer(Non-Executive Director,Non-Executive DeputyChairman)Mr Ronald Stephen Delia(Chief Executive Officer,Managing Director)Mr Nicholas Thompson (Ton) Long(Non-Executive Director)

To access further Research or for information regarding our recommendations and ratings please seewww.bellpotter.com.au

© 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Neither Morningstar, its affiliates, nor the content providers guarantee the data or content contained herein to be accurate, complete or timely nor will they have any liabilityfor its use or distribution. Any general advice or 'class service' have been prepared by Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892) and/or Morningstar Research Ltd, subsidiaries ofMorningstar, Inc, without reference to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Refer to our Financial Services Guide (FSG) for more information at www.morningstar.com.au/s/fsg.pdf. You should consider theadvice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement (Australian products) or Investment Statement (New Zealand products) before making any decision to invest. Ourpublications, ratings and products should be viewed as an additional investment resource, not as your sole source of information. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product's futureperformance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Some material is copyright and published under licence from ASX Operations Pty Ltd ACN 004 523 782 ("ASXO").

Amcor Limited

Bell Potter Securities Research

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Email [email protected]

Website www.bellpotter.com.au