american association of state climatologists, coeur d’ alene, id 18 july, 2007 update since rapid...

American Association of State Climatologists, Coeur d’ Alene, ID 18 July, 2007

Update Since Rapid City

Jan CurtisApplied Climatologist

National Water and Climate Center

Natural Resources Conservation Service

Portland, [email protected]


Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecasting Program

We live in the best of times and worst of times.

Technology

Recognition

Budget

Manpower


Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecasting Program

• 12 western states including Alaska

• 60 FTE(36 Field, 24 NWCC)

• 25.5M acres of irrigated agriculture

• $51.1B in annual market value(Ag. Census, 2002)


NRCS SNOTEL Network

• SNOTEL network– 12 western states– 730+ sites– 16 million observations

(2005)– 16.1 million downloads

(2006)• 920 manual snow courses• http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/sn

ow/

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/


SNOTEL Site Augmented Data Array

Solar Radiation

Relative Humidity

Wind

Air Temp

SnowDepth

Snow Water Equivalent

• Snow water content• Precipitation• Temperature• Snow depth• Relative humidity• Wind speed/direction• Solar radiation• Soil moisture /

temperature


Daily State Map - Colorado


Google Earth – New Products – Daily WSF


Soil Climate Analysis Network

• SCAN (Soil Climate Analysis Network)– 118 sites in 39

states– Soil-climate

monitoring– 956K downloads in

2006– Critical for drought

monitoring • http://www.wcc.nrcs.u

sda.gov/scan/

7 new sites

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/scan/

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/scan/


New WSF Process - VIPER

“Visual Interactive Prediction and Estimation Routines”


PRISM


Seamless Daily PRISM (1960-2001)(Serially Completed Series - Precipitation)

4km Resolution

19 April 1970

>12,000 coop sites

Note time of OBS differences


Seamless Daily PRISM (1960-2001)(Serially Completed Series – Tmin & Tmax)

>9,000 coop sites


Seamless-Precipitation


Daily PRISM (1960-2001) Extremes for CONUS



Seamless Pmax Daily Frequency

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0 3 6 9 12 15

Max Inches / Day

Occ

urr

ence

15,341 days



http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/severeweather/24hrpre.gif


Seamless-Temperature


New Plant Hardiness Map


Conflicting Data

Feeling Warmth, Subtropical Plants Move NorthBy SHAILA DEWAN

May 3, 2007


Agricultural Applied Climate Information System (AgACIS)

A partnership with the Regional Climate Centers

new


AgACIS Products


SS-WSF Future Directions

1. Further automating of manual snow courses to SNOTEL sites where real-time information is needed to provide water supply forecasts.

2. Expansion of SCAN to provide governments, water managers, agricultural producers, businesses and researchers improved information about soil moisture conditions and potential droughts.

3. Improving models and computational capacity to provide more frequent and accurate water supply forecasts and assessments of soil moisture.


SNOTEL QC

“When installation first began in the middle 1970s, the network was never envisioned as a data source for climate change studies; however the network has become a de facto source for middle and higher elevation snowpack, precipitation and temperature data.

While technology continues to improve the quality of these observations, spatial weighing methodology is now being employed to correct these archived data. The results of this effort may indeed provide the basis for identifying a ‘benchmark’ SNOTEL and snow course network for climate change studies.” – Phil Pasteris, NWCC

http://mistral.oce.orst.edu/www/snotelqc/

http://mistral.oce.orst.edu/www/snotelqc/


Regression of “Weather vs. Climate”

PRISM Results

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

16.5

17.5

18.5

19.5

20.5

21.5

22.5

23.5

24.5

25.5

26.5

71-00 Mean July Maximum Temperature

Dai

ly M

axim

um T

empe

ratu

re (

C)

21D12S

21D35S

21D13S

353402

21D08S

5211C70E

324045CC

3240335C

21D14S

Regression

Stn: 21D12SDate: 2000-07-20Climate: 21.53Obs:26.0Prediction: 25.75Slope: 1.4Y-Intercept: -4.37

This is a scatter-plot showing how this method can be used for daily interpolation. On the x-axis is the mean July temperature, and it is being regressed with the daily maximum temperature for July 20, 2000. This plot, for a location new Mount Hood in Oregon, shows that even though the temperature is nearly 5C above the mean, the spatial patterns are remarkably similar.


Analysis

• A new window opens that shows:– A separate line for each

station. – The cooldown during July-

Aug 1991 at Salt Creek Falls is clearly anomalous compared to it’s nearest neighbors.


Details on New SNOTEL QC Procedures for Temperature

• Compare with all-time state record +/- 3C• Tmin>Tmax• Tmax=Tmin=0 (new)• Flatliners

– >=2 consec days w/ obs of 0 (new) – old +/-0.1C– >10 consec days of value w/i+/- 0.4C (new) - old +/-0.1C

• Incorporate upper-air for surface inversions• Predictor stations w/i +/- 100km of target site

– Have at least 50% of days overlapping (+/- 15 days & +/-2 years. Target site must have >30 days of data or not QC’d.

• Plus other statistical tests• Software will be free to anyone.

– Potential addition to TempVal QC?


Spatial QC System for SNOTEL Data

Uses climate mapping technology and climate statistics to provide a continuous, quantitative confidence probability for each observation, estimate a replacement value, and provide a confidence interval for that replacement.

• Start with daily max/min temperature for all SNOTEL sites, period of record

Completed: 1st Review (Feb 07’) 2nd Review (Oct 07’)

• Move to precipitation, SWE, soil temperature and moisture

expected: Fall 2007

• Develop automated system for near-real time operation at NRCS

Part of the WestMap Initiative? eventually


Thank you - Questions?

Jan Curtis, NRCS, National Water and Climate Center, (503) 414-3017 E-Mail: [email protected]

Snowy Mountains, WY

mailto:[email protected]

american association of state climatologists, coeur d’ alene, id 18 july, 2007 update since rapid...

Documents

best of times

worst of times

series tmin tmax9

alaska60 fte

drought monitoring http

manual snow courseshttp

acres of irrigated agriculture

rapid city