AmmoniaFuelRiskLevels“Similar,ifnotLowerthan”

Gasoline,LPG,Methanol,NaturalGas,andHydrogen

TREVORBROWNammoniaindustry.com

NH3FuelConference

ArgonneNaLonalLaboratory,Chicago,ILSeptember22,2015

AsummaryofthetwoexisLngstudiesofAmmoniaFuelSafety

SafetyassessmentofammoniaasatransportfuelRisøNaLonalLaboratoryDenmark,2005PartoftheEUsupportedproject“AmmoniaCrackingforCleanElectricPowerTechnology”LINK:h[p://nh3fuel.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/riso-ammonia-transport-safety-report.pdf

Compara2veQuan2ta2veRiskAnalysisofMotorGasoline,LPG,andAnhydrousAmmoniaasanAutomo2veFuelQuestConsultantsIncUSA,2009PreparedforIowaStateUniversityLINK:h[p://nh3fuel.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/nh3_riskanalysis_final.pdf

AmmoniaFuelRiskLevels–Conclusions–

Risø:“AnoverallconclusionisthatthehazardsinrelaLontoammonianeedtobe(andprobablycanbe)controlledbytechnicalandregulatoryopLons...Whenthesesafetysystemsareimplemented,therisksofusingammoniaissimilar,ifnotlowerthanfortheotherfuels.”NOTE:comparesanhydrousammoniatogasoline,LPG,CNG,methanol,andhydrogen–ininternalcombusLonenginesorfuelcells.Risø:pp.39-40of160

Quest:“Insummary,thehazardsandrisksassociatedwiththetrucktransport,storage,anddispensingofrefrigeratedanhydrousammoniaaresimilartothoseofgasolineandLPG...Therisksassociatedwithallthreefuelswouldfallintotheacceptablecategoryforallreferencedriskcriteria.”Quest:p.53of59(6-13)

AmmoniaFuelRiskis“acceptable”–WhatDoesThatMean?–

•  Basedonthedata,AmmoniaSafetyshouldn’tbeanobstacletofunding,development,ordeploymentofammoniafuelapplicaLons.

•  Note,moreover,thatthis“acceptable”riskprofilewasachievedunderthehighestpossibleriskscenario:Passengercarsinpublic.

•  Therefore,inmostrealisLcammoniafuelapplicaLons,AmmoniaSafetyisevenMOREacceptable.Because,comparedtopassengervehiclefueluse:–  StaLonarypowerisinherentlysafer–  Off-road/Industrialpowerisinherentlysafer–  Remotepowerisinherentlysafer

•  Simpleconclusion:“AmmoniabelongsintheR&Dporkolio.”

DavidGarman,”TheCurseofShinyObjects,”KeynoteSpeechNH3FuelConference,9/21/2015

AmmoniaFuelRiskLevels–Howsimilaris“similar”?–

TruckTransportSafety“HazardCorridors”&“VulnerabilityZones”– Gasoline– LPG– Ammonia

Quest:p43(6-3)

“AnEngineeringProblem,withEngineeringSoluLons”

“Nevertheless,risk-reducingopLonsarestronglyneeded.AsoluLonthatcausestherisklevelstodropbelowtherisksforLPGrequiresthatammoniabetransported•  inrefrigeratedform,•  inroadtankerscarryingtypicallyfour

separated(pressure)tanksofabout11m3each,

•  whichareasresilientagainstimpactandabrasionasconvenLonal(large)pressuretanks.”

Risø:p39

TruckTransportsafetyGasoline:1.75x(10)-7releases/mile/truckLPG: 5.84x(10)-8releases/mile/truckAmmonia:1.9x(10)-8releases/mile/truckQuest,p33(4-4)

Ammoniahasthelowestprobabilityofanaccidentalreleaseintrucktransport,but…

AmmoniaFuelRiskLevels–Howsimilaris“similar”?–

ServiceStaDons“RiskContours”– Gasoline– LPG– Ammonia

Quest:pp45-46(6-5,6-6)

“AnEngineeringProblem,withEngineeringSoluLons”

ServiceStaDons“Small,butlong-lasLngreleasesofammoniaduetoe.g.leaksandrupturesofhoses,causeseriousdangersatdistancesupto150mdistance…ThisrequiresaddiLonaltechnicalsafeguardstoreducethelikelihoodofthesereleases(Itisespeciallyimportanttostopthereleaseassoonaspossibletointerruptexposure).Butalsoincasethesesafeguardsareinplace,safetydistancesaroundtheseammonia-refuellingstaDonsshouldbenolessthan70m.”Risø:pp39-40

“Therefrigeratedammoniastoragesystemisdesignedsuchthatifasmallorsignificantreleaseofammoniaweretooccurinthestorage,heaLng,orpumpingsystems,thereleasedammonialiquidandvaporwouldbecontainedinavaultandventedthroughaverDcalstackextendingupward.Astheammoniavaporswarmanddispersefromtheelevatedstack,theammonia/airplumewillbeposiLvelybuoyantandwillhavenoabilitytoslumpbacktograde.ThisstoragemethodessenDallyeliminatesthegrade-levelriskassociatedwiththestorageofrefrigeratedammonia.”Quest:p50(6-10)

AmmoniaFuelRiskLevels–Howsimilaris“similar”?–

DrivingaCar“Thefuelusedtopoweramotorvehicledoesnotcontributesignificantlytothefatalityrateofmotor-vehicleaccidents…ThisconclusionisbasedonasimplereviewoftheavailableNSCdataandwouldbeexpectedtobetrueifanhydrousammoniaweretheautomoLvefuelsinceanhydrousammoniawouldbecarriedinapressurevesselsimilartoLPG.”Quest:pp9-10(1-3–1-4)

“Itshouldbeemphasised,thatthisstudydoesnotexcludeanyaccidentswherethereleaseofammoniafromacarwillkilladriver,passengerorotherindividuals…ThiswillhappennomoreoKen,thanthatpeoplearekilledbyburninggasolineorLPG.”Risø:p.45

“AnEngineeringProblem,withEngineeringSoluLons”

DrivingaCar

Risø:p11MarangoniEcoExplorer,100%ammoniafuel,containedinadaptedLPGfueltank

Bigasdesign&build,Italy2012

AmmoniaFuel:storedinLPGtanksSo,howsafeareLPGFuelTanks?

“TherearenorecordedinjuriesorfataliDesinAustraliathathaveresultedfromrupturesand/orBLEVE’sofvehicleLPGcontainers.ItistheviewofEnergySafetythatthisgoodfortuneshouldnotbecomeapretextforfailuretotakeacDononwhatisclearlyapotenLalhazard.”

InvesLgaLonintotheEffectofVehicleFiresontheIntegrityofLPGasContainersInstalledtoAS/NZS1426:2007,GovernmentofWesternAustralia,DepartmentofCommerce,EnergySafety,2010h[p://contegointernaLonal.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/AustraliaPropane_Test.pdf

AmmoniaFuel:Non-flammable,NotExplosive

RFnumber[kJ/g]

ExplosiveLimits%lower–upper

Ammonia 7 15–28

Methane 40 5.5–44

Hydrogen 402 4–75

LPG,propane 52 2.1–9.5

LPG,butane 59 2.1–9.5

Methanol 29-41 5.5–44

Ethanol 39

NaturalGas 4.4–17

Gasoline 0.6–8

“TheRFindexisbasedontheupperandlowerflammabilitylevelsasanindicatorfortheigniLonprobabilityandtheheatofcombusLonoftheflammablecompound:AccordingtoitammoniaisbyfarthelesshazardouscompoundduetoigniDonprobabilityandhazard.Hydrogenisbyfarthemosthazardoussubstance.”Risø:AnnexA,p.4

Risø:AnnexA,pp.4–18Note:OSHAgivesammonialower-upperlimitsas16–25%

AmmoniaFuel:SimilarRiskLevel,DifferentRisks

Health Flammability

Ammonia 3 1

NaturalGas 1 4

Methane 1 4

Hydrogen 0 4

LPG 1 4

Methanol 1 3

Gasoline 1 3

“AllmaterialshavearaDngof3or4andthusmaycauselargedifficulDesinemergencysituaDons.Forammoniaitisduetothehealthwhiletheothersareveryflammable.TheraLngof3forammoniaindicatesthatemergencysituaLonsmaybehandledbyprofessionalshavingtherightprotecDonavailable.MostoftheothershavearaLngof4forflammabilitythatmaybetoodangeroustohandle.”Risø:p.45

“TheNFPAraLngforammoniais3takingintoaccountthephysicalstressofemergencypeople…thustheNFPAraLng“overpredicts”thetoxicity.”Risø:p.45

NaLonalFirePrevenLonAssociaLon:h[p://www.nfpa.org/codes-and-standards/document-informaLon-pages?mode=code&code=704

AmmoniaFuel:SimilarRiskLevel,DifferentRisks

RealDangersofAmmonia:–  “Theodorthresholdforammoniaisbetween5-50ppmofair...Itis

recommendedthatifanemployeecansmellittheyoughttobackoffanddetermineiftheyneedtobeusingrespiratoryprotecLon.”

–  “Ammoniaisnot,strictlyspeaking,apoisonandrepeatedexposuretoitproducesnoaddiDve(chronic)effectsonthehumanbody.”

–  Note:ammoniaisnot“toxic”unlessyou’reafishorsuffermetabolicillness.–  “Inthelungs,liquidanhydrousammoniacausesdestrucDonofdelicate

respiratoryLssue.Exposuretoammoniavapormaycause:Convulsivecoughing,Difficultorpainfulbreathing,PulmonarycongesLon,Death.”

–  “Becauseliquidammoniaboilsat-28°F,theexpandinggashasthepotenDaltofreezeanythinginitspathofrelease,includinghumanfleshandorgans.”

–  AlkalisaffectLssuedifferentlythanacids,whichtendtoburnandsealoffawound.Alkalis,suchasammoniacauseliquidizaDonofDssueandturnLssueintoasLcky"goo"andmixwiththisLssue,causingfurtherdamage.Asaresult,anhydrousammoniaburnskeepspreadingunLlthechemicalisdiluted.

OSHA:h[ps://www.osha.gov/SLTC/etools/ammonia_refrigeraLon/ammonia/

TheSmellTest…foranInherentlySaferFuel

PPM DuraDon Effect

25 ≤1hour “AclearlydefinedobjecLonableodor,”andnomorethan“mildtransientadversehealtheffects.”

150 ≤1hour No“irreversibleorotherserioushealtheffects,”andwon’t“impairtheirabiliLestotakeprotecLveacLon.”

400 “SevereirritaLonofthroat,nasalpassages.”

700 “SevereeyeirritaLon.”

750 ≤1hour No“life-threateninghealtheffects.”

1,883 ≥30mins “Onsetoflethality”…“fatalto1%ofexposedpopulaLon.”

4,005 ≥30mins “Fatalto50%ofexposedpopulaLon.”

8,519 ≥30mins “Fatalto99%ofexposedpopulaLon.”

Quest:pp23-24(3-6–3-7)

“NH3isdetectablebyodoratconcentraLonsmuchlessthanthosenecessarytocauseharm.Thisallowspersonswhosmellthegastoescape.”

SouthChinaMorningPost,09/18/2015,h[p://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/arLcle/1859615/children-cough-blood-and-animals-die-chinese-factory-leaks

September18,2015HenanProvince,China300kgammoniareleased1fatality,20injured(reported)

Couldn’trun(chaineddog)

Couldrun(everyonetohospital)

Contextfor“AcceptableRisks,”akaCostofBusiness(asusual)

Contextfor“AcceptableRisks,”akaCostofBusiness(asusual)

Volkswagen,thismorning:

•  “Solet’sbeclearaboutthis,ourcompanywasdishonest–withtheEPA,andtheCaliforniaAirResourcesBoard,andwithallofyou.And,inmyGermanwords,wehavetotallyscrewedup.”MichaelHorn,PresidentandCEO,VolkswagenGroupofAmerica,9/22/2015

•  “Usingadefeatdeviceincarstoevadecleanairstandardsisillegalandathreattopublichealth.”CynthiaGiles,EnvironmentalProtecLonAgency

QuanLfyingtheserisks:•  11millioncars•  $7.3billionsetaside(potenLally$18billioninfines)•  $31billionwipedoffmarketcapitalizaLon

h[p://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/volkswagen-11-million-vehicles-could-have-suspect-so{ware-emissions-scandal-n431456

RealRiskContours:AmmoniaRisksinToday’sContext

FataliLes

Injuries

Costs:RemedialenvironmentalSupplyChains/MilitaryLocal/NaLonalGDP,Import-Exportbalance

Climate(note:logarithmicscale)

Fossilfuels Ammonia

AmmoniaFuelRiskLevels–CONCLUSION–

•  “Theacceptanceofammoniawillnotbebasedontheresultsofnumericalriskanalysis,butwillalsobeinfluencedbythepublic’spercepLonofthethreatsofammonia.”Risø:p.40

But…

•  Ammoniasafetyshouldnotabarriertothecommercialdevelopmentofammoniafueltechnologies.

•  “Ammoniaisn’tsexy.Itjustworks.”DavidGarman,TheCurseofShinyObjects,NH3FuelConference,9/21/2015

•  Thankyou.