07 internal use-only-elbe flood 2002 2013-lessons learnt-pisi
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Sebastian Pisi, DKKV
Elbe flood 2002/2013: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures
Bonn, 11th December 2014
KNOW4DRR: Decision making in disaster risk reduction across different levels
FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY
Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures
Table of Contents
BMBF-Project
A few impressions
Flood 2002 - A Focus Event
Risk Management Cycle & Decision Making Process
Lessons Learned
Conclusion
Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures
Overview - Examinations of the Flood Event 2013
Duration: Oct. 2013 to Feb. 2015
Head of Project: Prof. Dr. Annegret Thieken, University of Potsdam
Part 1: Potential and actual damage reduction through prevention and early warning
Part 2: Coping Capacity of German federal states and aid
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e
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f St
end
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Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures
Flood in Germany 2013…
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rce:
Ber
ufs
feu
erw
ehr
Bre
men
Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures
…water as far as the eye can reach, being concerned but…
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Bu
nd
esp
oliz
ei F
lugd
ien
st
Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures
…at least not alone…
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Ber
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feu
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ehr
Bre
men
Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures
…and creative!
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Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures
Flood in August 2002: ,Focus event’
Extensive Case Study Analysis Identification of Deficits …Recommendations
Revision
o Flood Protection o EU-Flood Action Programme o Investments and improvements
at all levels
Research Programme
Horizon 2020
Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures
Source: All American Insurance Agency
Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures
August 2002 Record-breaking
24-hour rainfall: 312 mm
‚Nothing like this‘: Hazard processes
June 2013 Record-breaking
Soil saturation in May 2013
Source: CEDIM Forensic Disaster Analysis Group; revised in February 2014, pers. com. K. Schröter (GFZ)
S: Severity index acording to Uhlemann, Thieken, Merz (2010) – HESS 14: 1277–1295.
Identify
Evaluate
Treat
Monitor
Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures
August 2002 June 2013 Learning based on damages: YES, but EXPENSIVE
Impact indicator August 2002 June 2013
Fatalities 21 8
Financial losses 11600 million € 8158 million €
Governmental compensation fund 8000 million € 8000 million €
Identify
Evaluate
Treat
Monitor
Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures
Sou
rce:
Ad
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Identify
Evaluate
Treat
Monitor
Learning due to damages: YES, but EXPENSIVE
Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures
Progress:
• 22nd Dec. 2011
Identification of areas with high risk potential
• 22nd Dec. 2013
Risk and Hazard Maps
• 22nd Dec. 2015
Flood Management Plans
• Update every 6 years
Transfer to national law:
Federal Water Act
EU-Flood Action Programme (2007/60/EC)
Probability of Occurrence
• Flood with low probability (extreme)
• Flood with moderate probability (HQ100)
• Flood with high probability (HQ10/20)
Specific Data
• Flood plain
• Water depth
• Velocity
Potential negative results shown
in risk maps
Identify
Evaluate
Treat
Monitor
Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures
Warning and Reaction of Population
Source: www.hochwasserzentralen.de
After 2002 Improvement of warning and information: small percentage of population not being warned (25%...2013: 5%)
• Who does the warning address?
• Who can react? • Who does the appropriate thing?
Identify
Evaluate
Treat
Monitor
Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures
Analysis of Current Risk Maps • National server connecting to all federal information
• Hazard Maps in all federal states for HQ100 and HQ200
• No consistency in representaion of frequent floods
• Variety of research options for WebGIS applications – or not
Thüringen Nordrhein-Westfalen Schleswig-Holstein Sachsen
Sachsen-Anhalt Bayern Baden-Württemberg Hessen
Identify
Evaluate
Treat
Monitor
Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures
• Cooperation of aid agencies, public authorities and population a success
• New concepts for the interaction of aid agencies presented
• Implementation of key authorities (BBK/GMLZ)
• Regular training of stakeholders (LÜKEX)
• Schemes for controlling and quality criteria
Aid Agencies
Identify
Evaluate
Treat
Monitor
Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures
Conflicts and the Role of the Media
Identify
Evaluate
Treat
Monitor
Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures
Identify
Evaluate
Treat
Monitor
Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures
‚Preparation in private‘
• Information Aearch
• Mutual Aid/ Networks
• Adapted Use of Buildings
• Adapted Use of Interior
• Water Barriers
• Heating in Upper Floors
• Safeguarding of Oil Heatings
• Waterproofing of Buildings
• Insurance
• Preparation for Case of Emergency
Source: http://images.fejo.dk/hausbilder/0660/6387
Identify
Evaluate
Treat
Monitor
Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures
Improvements from 2002 to 2013
• Flood hazard and risk mapping
• Reinforced technical protection
• Strengthening of flood prevention by land use regulations
• Improved warning and response
• Higher acceptance and willingness to take responsibility
• Uncertainty more precise
• More coordination and communication
• Efforts in risk communication
• Sensitivity raised
Higher efficiency
To Do...
Do we supply enough retention areas and is maintenance of floodplains sufficient?
How to better link reconstruction and risk reduction?
Are maps and warning information comprehensible?
How to deal with new technologies and social media?
What about intangible and long-term effects?
Is there a shift of risk due to prioritisation of measures?
What is the political agenda up to?
New ways and perspectives?
Conclusion
Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures
DMP
Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures
Thank you very much!
Sebastian Pisi, German Comitee for Disaster Reduction
pisi@dkkv.org, +49-228-6191289
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