1 decision analysis by dr. aa. 2 man decides based on what he believes… man believes what he want...
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Decision AnalysisDecision Analysisbyby
Dr. AADr. AA
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Man decides based on what he believes…
Man believes what he want to believe…
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Decision Analysis
1. Clarify purpose1. Clarify purposeState the decisionState the decisionDevelop objectivesDevelop objectivesClassify objectives into MUST and WANTClassify objectives into MUST and WANTWeigh the Wants Weigh the Wants
2. Evaluate Alternatives2. Evaluate AlternativesGenerate AlternativesGenerate AlternativesScreen alternatives against the MUSTsScreen alternatives against the MUSTsCompare alternatives against the WANTsCompare alternatives against the WANTs
3. Assess Risks3. Assess RisksIdentify adverse consequencesIdentify adverse consequences
4. Make Decision4. Make DecisionMake the best balanced choiceMake the best balanced choice
A systematic A systematic process for process for
making making
a choicea choice
To balance To balance benefits and benefits and
risksrisks
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State the Decision
AskAskWhat do we need to decideWhat do we need to decide
What are we trying to doWhat are we trying to do
Write a short statement that includesWrite a short statement that includesChoice of wordsChoice of words
ResultResult
1 or 2 key modifiers1 or 2 key modifiers
Short statement Short statement describing the describing the
intended result of a intended result of a decisiondecision
To keep To keep decision decision
makers on makers on tracktrack
ClarifyPurpose
Evaluate Alternatives
Assess Risks
Make Decision
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Develop Objectives
AskAskWhat results do we want?What results do we want?
What resources should we use or save? (people, What resources should we use or save? (people, equipment, money, time, space…)equipment, money, time, space…)
What law, regulation, or policy restrictions should we What law, regulation, or policy restrictions should we consider?consider?
List in short statementsList in short statements
Identify Criteria Identify Criteria that will that will
influence the influence the choicechoice
To help you To help you evaluate evaluate
alternatives alternatives fairlyfairly
ClarifyPurpose
Evaluate Alternatives
Assess Risks
Make Decision
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Classify objectives into Must and Wants
AskAskIs this objectives”Is this objectives”• Mandatory ? (required)Mandatory ? (required)• Measurable? (set limit)Measurable? (set limit)• Realistic? (can be met)Realistic? (can be met)
Yes to all 3 = MUST – label (M)Yes to all 3 = MUST – label (M)
All others are WantsAll others are Wants
Determining the Determining the role objectives role objectives will play in the will play in the
decisiondecision
To be clear To be clear about what is about what is
mandatory and mandatory and what is desiredwhat is desired
ClarifyPurpose
Evaluate Alternatives
Assess Risks
Make Decision
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Weigh the WANTs
AskAskWhat is the relative importance of each WANT?What is the relative importance of each WANT?
Identify the most important WANT(s), give it Identify the most important WANT(s), give it (them) a 10(them) a 10
Compare others to it (them) and assign Compare others to it (them) and assign numbered weightsnumbered weights
Check weights by comparing to the 10’sCheck weights by comparing to the 10’s
Assigning relative Assigning relative values to WANT values to WANT
objectivesobjectives
To show how To show how much each much each WANT will WANT will
influence the influence the choicechoice
ClarifyPurpose
Evaluate Alternatives
Assess Risks
Make Decision
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Generate AlternativesGenerate Alternatives
Ask:Ask:What choices do we have?What choices do we have?
Look at:Look at:Decision statementDecision statementKey ObjectivesKey ObjectivesInformation sources: experts, catalogues, …Information sources: experts, catalogues, …List alternatives without evaluationList alternatives without evaluation
Identifying or Identifying or creating creating possible possible choiceschoices
To expand the To expand the number of choices number of choices and increase the and increase the chances of picking chances of picking a winnera winner
ClarifyPurpose
Evaluate Alternatives
Assess Risks
Make Decision
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Screen Through the MUSTsScreen Through the MUSTs
Ask:Ask:Does this alternative satisfy this MUST limit?Does this alternative satisfy this MUST limit?
Gather and record factual dataGather and record factual data
Determine if Determine if GoGo or or No GoNo Go
Eliminate any Eliminate any No GoNo Go alternatives alternatives
Determining if Determining if alternatives alternatives meet the meet the MUSTsMUSTs
To eliminate To eliminate choices that do choices that do not meet not meet minimum minimum requirementsrequirements
ClarifyPurpose
Evaluate Alternatives
Assess Risks
Make Decision
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Compare Alternatives against the Compare Alternatives against the WANTsWANTs
Ask:Ask:How does this alternative satisfy this objective?How does this alternative satisfy this objective?
Gather and record factual dataGather and record factual dataCompute score for each objectiveCompute score for each objective
Score best performer for each objective (with a 10)Score best performer for each objective (with a 10)Score relative performance of remaining alternatives (0-Score relative performance of remaining alternatives (0-10)10)Multiply objective weight x scoreMultiply objective weight x scoreTotal the weighted scoreTotal the weighted score
Evaluating Evaluating relative relative performance of performance of alternativesalternatives
To determine To determine which which alternatives alternatives create the most create the most benefitbenefit
ClarifyPurpose
Evaluate Alternatives
Assess Risks
Make Decision
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Identify Adverse ConsequencesIdentify Adverse Consequences
Ask:Ask:If we do this, what could go wrong ?If we do this, what could go wrong ?Are we close to any MUST limits ?Are we close to any MUST limits ?What disadvantages are associated with this What disadvantages are associated with this alternatives ?alternatives ?Is any information vague or uncertain ?Is any information vague or uncertain ?
List each risk you find in an “if… then…” List each risk you find in an “if… then…” formatformat
Identifying Identifying future threats future threats for best for best performer(s)performer(s)
To understand To understand the risk of the risk of choosing an choosing an alternativealternative
ClarifyPurpose
Evaluate Alternatives
Assess Risks
Make Decision
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Make the Best Balanced ChoiceMake the Best Balanced Choice
For the best performing alternative, ask:For the best performing alternative, ask:Are we willing to accept the risk(s) to gain the Are we willing to accept the risk(s) to gain the benefit of this choice?benefit of this choice?
If yes, pick itIf yes, pick it
If no, repeat for the next best alternativeIf no, repeat for the next best alternative
Selecting an Selecting an alternative that best alternative that best meets criteria with meets criteria with acceptable risksacceptable risks
To commit To commit to a choiceto a choice
ClarifyPurpose
Evaluate Alternatives
Assess Risks
Make Decision
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TECHNIQUES
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Decision Analysis TechniquesDecision Analysis Techniques
Test the level of the DecisionTest the level of the Decision
Audit ObjectivesAudit Objectives
Assess the ThreatAssess the Threat
Present and Assess RecommendationsPresent and Assess Recommendations
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Test the Level of the Decision Test the Level of the Decision
Be conscious of any prior implied decisions
Examine the decision statement and ask:
What impact does each word have on our choice?
What happen if we use a different word ?
What need does this decision address ?
What is the fundamental purpose of the decision ?
Evaluating the Evaluating the type and range of type and range of alternativesalternatives
To improve To improve the decision the decision making making processprocess
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Audit ObjectivesAudit Objectives
Ask:Ask:
How does each objective relate to the Decision
Statement ?
Are the objectives separated ?
Are any objectives duplicates ?
Are any objectives features of one alternative ?
Are MUSTs mandatory, measurable and realistic ?
Reviewing Reviewing objectives before objectives before generating generating alternativesalternatives
To ensure a To ensure a complete, complete, balanced set of balanced set of objectivesobjectives
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Audit Objectives (continued)Audit Objectives (continued)
Ask:Ask:Should any MUST be reflected as WANT ?
Have short- and long-term objectives been balanced ?
Do the added weights of related objectives reflect the
intended emphasis ?
Have all stakeholders been adequately represented ?
Reviewing Reviewing objectives before objectives before generating generating alternativesalternatives
To ensure a To ensure a complete, complete, balanced set of balanced set of objectivesobjectives
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Asses the ThreatAsses the Threat
Ask:Ask:How likely is each adverse consequence ? (probability)
What impact will this adverse consequence have ?
(seriousness)
Use “if …Then …” format ?
Mark each threat High/Medium/Low for both
probability and seriousness ?
Determining the Determining the degree of risk of degree of risk of each adverse each adverse consequenceconsequence
To help To help understand understand which risks are which risks are acceptableacceptable
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Present RecommendationsPresent Recommendations
Use process to arrive at your recommendation.Use process to arrive at your recommendation.
State your choice and describe your process.State your choice and describe your process.
Make sure risks are visible.Make sure risks are visible.
Confirm that the decision maker is ready to choose.Confirm that the decision maker is ready to choose.
Formally Formally expressing expressing
a preferred choicea preferred choice
To help others To help others make a balanced make a balanced choicechoice
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Things to Do When RecommendingThings to Do When Recommending
Agree on the Decision Statement and Agree on the Decision Statement and objectives first (if possible)objectives first (if possible)
Describe the most important objectives at the Describe the most important objectives at the startstart
Explain how many alternatives you consideredExplain how many alternatives you considered
Describe how any “pet” alternatives were Describe how any “pet” alternatives were consideredconsidered
Show why your choice perform wellShow why your choice perform well
Make sure any risks for your choice are Make sure any risks for your choice are understood.understood.
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Things to Avoid When Things to Avoid When RecommendingRecommending
Assume agreement on your Decision Assume agreement on your Decision Statement and objectivesStatement and objectives
Hand out the matrix during your Hand out the matrix during your presentationpresentation
Use jargon that the decision maker does not Use jargon that the decision maker does not understandunderstand
Be too negative about any “pet” alternativesBe too negative about any “pet” alternatives
Use vague or doubtful informationUse vague or doubtful information
Hide risksHide risks
DO NOT…
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Assess RecommendationsAssess Recommendations
What were the most important things you What were the most important things you considered when you worked on this decision ?considered when you worked on this decision ?
How many alternatives did you consider ?How many alternatives did you consider ?
Why did you select this one ?Why did you select this one ?
What risks do we face with this alternative ?What risks do we face with this alternative ?
Using effective Using effective questioning and questioning and listening to evaluate listening to evaluate recommendationsrecommendations
To improve To improve your your confidence in confidence in the the recommendatiorecommendationnAsk:
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Things to Do When AssessingThings to Do When Assessing
Understand the need being met by the decisionUnderstand the need being met by the decision
Understand why the level of the decision is Understand why the level of the decision is where it iswhere it is
Understand why the key objectives are Understand why the key objectives are importantimportant
Listen to the recommendationListen to the recommendation
Look first for evidence of use of a rational Look first for evidence of use of a rational Process, then examine the contentProcess, then examine the content
Understand the risksUnderstand the risks
Provide feedback to the presenterProvide feedback to the presenter
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Things to Avoid When Things to Avoid When AssessingAssessing
Rush to judgmentRush to judgment
Focus too much on smallest detailsFocus too much on smallest details
Interrupt except to clarifyInterrupt except to clarify
Assume enough stakeholders have been consideredAssume enough stakeholders have been considered
Assume all the risks have been presentedAssume all the risks have been presented
Provide punishment for making a recommendationProvide punishment for making a recommendation
Do not…
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The Next Time You make decision,…
The End
Try Using Decision Analysis
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