1 forecast for 2011-12 winter george h. taylor, ccm october, 2011

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Forecast for 2011-12 WinterForecast for 2011-12 Winter

George H. Taylor, CCM

October, 2011

22

Current ConditionsCurrent Conditions

33

44

Long-term Trends inLong-term Trends inTropical Pacific IndicatorsTropical Pacific Indicators

55

66

77

88

99

In terms of PDO conditions, the best analog matches were 1933, 1961, 2001, and 2008.

In terms of MEI, the best matches were 1967,1989, 1996, 1999 and 2008.

Overall the best match was 2008.

Analog Matches

1010

1111

1212

1313

1414

There’s no sunshine in the skies There’s no sunshine in the skies todaytoday

It’s gonna rain, rain, rain ‘til the It’s gonna rain, rain, rain ‘til the month of Maymonth of May

I guess you say, why do I get wet I guess you say, why do I get wet today?today?

La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña -- La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña -- La Niña!La Niña!

There’ll be soooo much snow in There’ll be soooo much snow in the mountains this yearthe mountains this year

And lowland flooding, baby, is And lowland flooding, baby, is something to fearsomething to fear

I guess you say, why is there a I guess you say, why is there a flood today?flood today?

La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña -- La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña -- La Niña!La Niña!

It’s gonna be a dry, dry winter It’s gonna be a dry, dry winter down in LAdown in LA

Drought in Arizona, and all along Drought in Arizona, and all along the Southern Waythe Southern Way

I guess you say, why is it so dry I guess you say, why is it so dry today?today?

La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña -- La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña -- La Niña!La Niña!

Talkin’ ‘bout La Niña….Talkin’ ‘bout La Niña….There’s no sunshine in the skies There’s no sunshine in the skies

today, it’s La Niña,today, it’s La Niña,It might even flood today, La NiñaIt might even flood today, La NiñaTalkin’ ‘bout, talkin’ ‘bout, talkin’ Talkin’ ‘bout, talkin’ ‘bout, talkin’

‘bout La Niña‘bout La Niña

1919

Bottom LineBottom Line

• Rather benign early season, with very active December - February

• Above-average mountain snowfall for the winter; average ski season opening date

• Significant precipitation totals with possibility of flooding

• Cooler than average temperatures

• Slightly below average precipitation

• Good chance of low elevation snow (esp. January)

2020

In a nutshell:In a nutshell:

A slow start but making up for lost time!