1 is television dead? does digital television have a future? peter olaf looms dr media strategy...

1

Is television dead?Does digital television have a future?

Peter Olaf LoomsDR Media

Strategy & Projects

2

3

TV is Dead - True or False?1. Young people don’t watch TV1. Young people don’t watch TV

2. The Internet is replacing TV2. The Internet is replacing TV2. The Internet is replacing TV2. The Internet is replacing TV

3. People don’t 3. People don’t watch ads anymorewatch ads anymore

4

The menu this evening:• Television in ”the good old days”• Television today: how things have changed• What do these changes mean for viewers?• What do these changes mean for DTT in Hong

Kong?

5

Television in the ”good old days”

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20101975

Television in the fifties

1967A social experience1967A social experience

6

Television in the ”good old days”

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20101975

Television in the fifties

1967A social experience

Little choice

7

Television in the ”good old days”

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20101975

Television in the fifties

1967A social experience

Little choiceNo need for a remote

8

Television in the ”good old days”

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20101975

Television in the fifties

1967A social experience

Little choiceNo need for a remote

Watching TV when it was broadcast

9

Television in the ”good old days”

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20101975

Television in the fifties

1967A social experience

Little choiceNo need for a remote

Watching TV when it was broadcast

10

Television in the ”good old days”

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20101975

Television in the fifties

11

Television today

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20101975

Television in the fifties

2008Still a social experience

Who wants to watchfootball alone?

12

Television today

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20101975

Television in the fifties

2008Still a social experience

But also an individual one...

13

Television today

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20101975

Television in the fifties

2008Still a social experience

But also an individual one...

14

Television today

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20101975

Television in the fifties

2008Still a social experience

But also an individual one...More channels to choose from

15

Television today

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20101975

Television in the fifties

2008Still a social experience

But also an individual one...More channels to choose fromMore screens to watch it on

16

Television today

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20101975

Television in the fifties

2008Still a social experience

But also an individual one...More channels to choose fromMore screens to watch it onThe television experience

is changing...

Participating(voting)

17

Television today

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20101975

Television in the fifties

Engaging

18

Television today

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20101975

Television in the fifties

ImmersiveImmersive(a real home cinema)

19

Television today

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20101975

Television in the fifties

...or just Killing time

20

Television today

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20101975

Television in the fifties

2008Still a social experience

But also an individual one...More channels to choose fromMore screens to watch it onThe television experience

is changing...More viewer control...

21

Television today

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20101975

Television in the fifties

2008Still a social experience

But also an individual one...More channels to choose fromMore screens to watch it onThe television experience

is changing...More viewer control...

The TV set for other media...

22

Television today

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20101975

Television in the fifties

2008Still a social experience

But also an individual one...More channels to choose fromMore screens to watch it onThe television experience

is changing...More viewer control...

The TV set for other media...TV on other platforms...

23

Television today

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20101975

Television in the fifties

2008Still a social experience

But also an individual one...More channels to choose fromMore screens to watch it onThe television experience

is changing...More viewer control...

The TV set for other media...TV on other platforms...

24

Television today

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20101975

Television in the fifties

25

Television today

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20101975

PersonalPocketMedia

26

Television today

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20101975

Television in the fifties

PersonalPurseMedia

27

Television today

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20101975

Television in the fifties

2008Still a social experience

But also an individual one...More channels to choose fromMore screens to watch it onThe television experience

is changing...More viewer control...

The TV set for other media...TV on other platforms...

Watching when YOU want...

28

Television today

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20101975

Television in the fifties

AsynchronousViewing

29

Television today

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20101975

Television in the fifties

30

TrendsThe shift in power from scheduler to viewer

31

Trends 5. The shift in power from scheduler to viewer

32

Trends 5. The shift in power from scheduler to viewer

33

Trends The shift in power from scheduler to viewer

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101980

Choosing which channel to watch(trial and error)

Selecting a programme to

watch (EPG)

Deciding where inthe home to watch

Deciding when to watch

Deciding what andwhen to watch

Deciding where to watch

TheRCD

TeletextEPG, web

More than 1TV at home

Time-shiftingPVR (+ VHS)

On DemandVOD, IPTV,podcasting

Place-shifting3G, B2H,

podcasting

Choice +Control = Convenience= More viewing!

34

TrendsFrom Couch Potato to participating in

& creating TV

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101980

Choosing which channel to watch(trial and error)

Selecting a programme to

watch (EPG)

Deciding where inthe home to watch

Deciding when to watch

Deciding what andwhen to watch

Deciding where to watch

TheRCD

TeletextEPG, web

More than 1TV at home

Time-shiftingPVR + VHS

On DemandVOD, IPTV,podcasting

Place-shifting3G, B2H,

podcasting

Contributing toprogrammes

SMS, MMS,photos &

videos

Making programmes

Citizenmedia,

peercasting

Taking part in programmes

Voting inTV shows/”spoiling”

reality shows

35

What does all this mean for viewers?

36

What is their problem?

Finding something worthwhile to watch!Finding something worthwhile to watch!

37

How do they know what’s on?

EPGEPG[Digital TV [Digital TV or IPTV]or IPTV]

ECGECG[MediaCenter][MediaCenter]

ESGESGElectronic Electronic Service Service GuideGuide

EPGEPG

[Teletext][Teletext]

EPG [Web]EPG [Web]]]

ProgrammeProgrammeGuide in papersGuide in papers& magazines& magazines

38

What is their problem?

Can watch Can watch whatwhat they want they want

(choice/control)(choice/control)

Can watch Can watch whenwhen they want they want

(time shift)(time shift)

Can watch Can watch whatwhat and and whenwhen they want they want

(on demand)(on demand)

Can watch Can watch wherewhere they want they want(place shift)(place shift)

Can watch Can watch on any deviceon any device(computer, TV, mobile)(computer, TV, mobile)

But can they actuallyBut can they actuallyfind and watch whatfind and watch what

they want?they want?

Depends onDepends onmetadata thatmetadata thatmakes sensemakes senseto them andto them andtheir devicestheir devices

39

TV is Dead - True or False?1. Young people don’t watch TV1. Young people don’t watch TV

2. The Internet is replacing TV2. The Internet is replacing TV2. The Internet is replacing TV2. The Internet is replacing TV

3. People don’t 3. People don’t watch ads anymorewatch ads anymore

40

1. TV consumption will be stable or increase• Some young adults will view TV mainly on the Internet or handheld devices• Most will still watch TV on TV

2. TV consumption will polarise - TV Anytime• 80% will be watch TV as it is broadcast• 20% will be PVRs, On Demand and podcasts• A new challenge to market content for asynchronous use

3. TV content will differentiate into premium & commodities• ”Liveness” = News, sports, events, high-end TV fiction• Immmersive, cinema-like TV (long-form)• TV commodities for killing time (short/long form) with many delivery platforms and windows• User Created Videos (short form) will co-exist with ”liveness”, not replace it.

4. Understand each viewer• Content that matches the viewer’s sense of quality• Delivering TV on a platform that the viewer wants• Context - understanding the viewer’s needs, where and when they want to watch TV together or on their own.

TV in the next five years?

41

What does all this mean for Digital Terrestrial TV

in Hong Kong?

42

The switch from analogue to digital...

43

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Hong Kong (1967 - December 30 2007)

analogue

44

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Hong Kong (December 31 2007 - 2012TBC)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7analogue digital

45

Hong Kong (December 31 2007 - 2012TBC)

46

Hong Kong (2012TBC onwards)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7digital

”The Digital Dividend”

Spectrum that can be used for something else:• More channels in standard quality• Access services• High definition TV channels• Interactive TV• Mobile radio and TV• Wireless Internet• some combination of the above...

47

1

2

3

4

5

6

7digital

Hong Kong - Digital Terrestrial TVObservations & Predictions

48

Thank you!

49

Contact particulars

Peter Olaf LoomsDR, Danish Broadcasting CorporationDR MediaStrategy & ProjectsDR-ByenEmil Holms Kanal 20DK-0999 Copenhagen CDENMARK

E: poo@dr.dk , polooms@inet.uni2.dkM: +45 51 56 75 46D: +45 35 20 83 66