1 prioritizing long term multimodal transportation policies for virginia megan kersh asad saqib...
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Prioritizing Long Term Multimodal Transportation Policies for Virginia
Megan KershAsad Saqib
Matthew SchroederWard Williams
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Goal
Develop and demonstrate methodology for the use of scenario based policy making and planning by the Multimodal Office
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Objectives
Review scenario based planning Identify and classify scenarios Identify policies specific to time horizons,
regions, and modes Develop methods to compare policies used with
scenarios (cost effectiveness, ROI, etc.) Provide examples of all the above Make recommendations for the long range plan
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Expected Changes in Virginia Transportation Demand by 2025
Outlines expected changes in population, economy, households, public policy, freight, and passenger travel
Sources of transportation demand:• Socioeconomic, policy, and freight trends
Measures of transportation use:• Freight movements by mode, automobile use, mode
choiceSource: Vtrans, March 31, 2003 www.virginiadot.org/projects/vtrans/resources/VTransTrendsMarch31F.pdf
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Proposed Methodology
Regions Time Periods Scenarios Policies
WestNortheastSoutheast
5 years10 years20 years
SpatialEconomy
DemographicsOther
EvaluationTools
ROICost Benefit
Cost Effectiveness...
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Proposed Methodology
Regions
WestNortheastSoutheast
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Regions
Three regions are more manageable
Source: http://www.tfhrc.gov/pubrds/06sep/images/dep2.gif
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Proposed Methodology
Regions Time Periods
WestNortheastSoutheast
5 years10 years20 years
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Time Horizons
• 20 years• 10 years• 5 years
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Proposed Methodology
Regions Time Periods Scenarios
WestNortheastSoutheast
5 years10 years20 years
SpatialEconomy
DemographicsOther
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Types of Scenarios Spatial Economical Demographical
• Number of households, in/out-migration Other
• Environmental• Availability of energy resources• National emergencies• Natural disasters
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Spatial Scenarios Urban core repopulates
• People go to urbanized areas to live and work, net population unchanged• Public transportation increases, clean transportation
Sprawl accelerates• Private automobile become main mode, vehicle miles traveled increases• Land consumption, energy usage increase, resource depletion
Information technology amenities grow• More workers telecommute so sprawl continues• Flexible work hours result in justifying transit service to certain areas
Region undivided• Shift job and household growth from west to east
Transit oriented development• More people live and work closer to transit
Sources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf
www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt
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Economical Scenarios Regional economy strengthens
• Many workers move to region, sprawl continues
Global trade intensifies• Population decreases, increased use of automobiles
Energy cost rises• People relocate to more transit-oriented locations• Decreased use of automobile, air quality increases
Infrastructure investment expands• May draw people to area in the long run
Sources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf
www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt
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Demographical Scenarios
In-migration increases• Total population increases, increased use of
auto
Out-migration increases• Population decreases, increased use of auto
More households• Increased household growth to balance
forecast job growthSources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf
www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt
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Other Scenarios “Green” region emphasized
• Use of public transit, bike, etc.
Crisis of national significance occurs/ homeland security tightened• Sprawl accelerates, shun public transportation• Airlines suffer, intermodal connection not emphasized
Carbon constrained future Energy constrained future
• Global price shocks and shortagesSources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf
www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt
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Methodologies for Scenario Development
Royal Dutch Shell Approach Decide drivers for change/assumptions through
brainstorming Bring drivers together into a viable framework
• Recognize relation among factors and group scenarios Produce initial (7-9) mini scenarios Reduce to 2-3 scenarios
• Complementary to avoid having to pick a preferred one• Test – is it logical and intuitive?
Draft qualitative scenarios Identify the issues arising
• What will have greatest impact, potential for crisis
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_planning
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Proposed Methodology
Regions Time Periods Scenarios Policies
WestNortheastSoutheast
5 years10 years20 years
SpatialEconomy
DemographicsOther
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Suggested Policies Set of policies presented by Vtrans2025 Presented in phase 3 final report to
General Assembly Focuses on four policy areas
• Funding/Investment• Land use• Connectivity• Priority Setting
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Funding/Investment
Invest More in Transportation• User fees and taxes must be increased, new sources of funding,
such as indexing fuel taxes to inflation, and greater use of tolling and General Funds must be considered in order to address investment needs and increase system capacity.
Support Transit Remove Bias
• The state should not bias the local choice of transit versus roadways by the way in which it funds the modes
Fund Rail Protect Transportation Trust Fund Revenues
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Land Use Strengthen Planning Including Modeling Land
Use Impacts• Strengthen local and regional planning and enhance
the role of the state as a reliable and active partner in those planning efforts.
Manage Access• Implement access management policies that ensure
greater compatibility of land use and transportation priorities
Consider State Versus Local Roles Address the Transportation/Land Use Conflict
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Connectivity Improve Connections Think Multimodally
• Transit, pedestrian, bike and rail-friendly design features included in new construction
Take the Lead• Virginia must lead in connectivity of interstate
corridors
Invest in Technology• Maximize the efficiency of the existing transportation
system through developing technology
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Priority Setting Use Objective Criteria
• Establish objective criteria for all modes in order to measure success of projects and predict success of investments
Plan Multimodally• Continue development of the Multimodal
Investment Network (MIN) approach as a framework for planning and prioritizing multimodal projects at the state level
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Proposed Methodology
Regions Time Periods Scenarios Policies
WestNortheastSoutheast
5 years10 years20 years
SpatialEconomy
DemographicsOther
EvaluationTools
ROICost Benefit
Cost Effectiveness...
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Evaluation Tools for Policies Return on Investment Cost-benefit analysis Risk Analysis Impact Analysis Sensitivity Analysis Systems Analysis and Integration
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Other Research
FHWA future scenario planning policy Washington State case study Futuristic transportation policies Research on other case studies that
involve future scenarios and policies
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Overview of FHWA Future Scenario Planning Methodology
Step 1: Research the driving forces• Define the major sources of change that impact the future
Step 2: Determine patterns of interaction• How driving forces could combine to determine future conditions
Step 3: Create scenarios• Think about implications that different situations could bring about• Create basic stories based upon the interaction of drivers
Step 4: Analyze implications• Try to make graphic visualizations of the scenarios
Step 5: Evaluate scenarios• Present to stakeholders and public graphically if possible• Formulate reasoned responses to respond to change
Step 6: Monitor indicators• Scenario planning is an on-going process for a region
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Washington: Benefit-Cost Analysis of the Cross-Base Highway Project
http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/NR/rdonlyres/D036B8E5-CDC6-4D0F-BEF3-68200F45DA09/0/SR704FinalReportApril252007_3_.pdf
Transportation improvement between two cities
Evaluating 3 alternatives using: Net Present Value Internal Rate of Return Cost/Benefit Ratio Opportunity Cost Timing
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Three Alternatives
Alternative 1 – The Build Alternative. This scenario is to construct a 6 mile limited access highway to connect roads.
Alternative 2 – Widening of road. This scenario would involve the addition of another general purpose traffic lane.
Alternative 3 – Transit Enhancement. This scenario would involve the building of a light rail system This would be the first direct east-west transit link between the two cities.
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Estimating Transportation Improvements Benefits
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Detailed Tangible Benefits
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Detailed Benefits, Costs, and Net Benefits
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Future Research and Goals
Continue research of future scenarios, policies, and evaluation tools
Create methodologies for comparing policies with a financial focus
Consider both opportunistic and problematic future scenarios
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