1 the climate test bed: embracing the r2o and the o2r paradigms “where america’s climate,...

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The Climate Test Bed: Embracing the R2O and the O2R Paradigms

“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”

September 11, 2008

Dr. Louis W. UccelliniDirector, National Centers for Environmental

Prediction

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Thanks and Welcome

• Thanks to SAB members moving off the board

• Dennis Hartmann, University of Washington

• Gabriel Lau, GFDL

• Welcome new members

• Tony Rosati, GFDL

• Joe Tribbia, NCAR

• Thanks to ESSIC for hosting the meeting

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Overview

• Update on NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

• Transition Paradigm

• Recent Climate Prediction Advancements at NCEP

• Ongoing Strategic Priorities

• Budget Issues

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NOAA Center for NOAA Center for Weather and Climate PredictionWeather and Climate Prediction

• Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists

• 5 NCEP Centers

• NESDIS research and satellite services

• OAR Air Resources Laboratory (ARL)

• 40 spaces for research community

Move Start May 2009

Move Complete January 2010

Move Schedule

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NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

Front entrance (L) and Auditorium (R)

August 2008Auditorium

Atrium

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NOAA Center for Weather and

Climate Prediction

NORTH

Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center

(in background)

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EMCNCO

R&D Operations Delivery

Criteria

Transition from Research to Operations

Requirements

EMC

Schematics in the Model Transition Process

OPS Life cycleSupport Service Centers

NOAAResearch

Concept of Operations

ServiceCenters

Test BedsJCSDA

CTBDTCJHT

User

Obs

erva

tion

Sy

stem

Launch List – Model Implementation Process

FieldOffices

Effort

EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operationsOther AgenciesOther Agencies

&&InternationalInternational

Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

ASI, COLA,ARCS

Operations to Research

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The CTB Transition Process

AONCEP Co-PI

LOIProposal

R2O

O2R

Improved products and services

Research OperationsClimate Forecast Products

MME

CFS Improvements

• Reanalysis / Reforecasts

• Earth System Modeling

• Tropical oscillations

• Model physics

• Etc.

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Recent Climate Prediction Advancements at NCEP

Unprecedented increases in the skill of CPC official

seasonal outlooks (20% or more; O’Lenic et al. 2007) due in part to CFS and to

CTB milestones (e.g. consolidation tool)

• Climate Forecast System: first dynamic operational climate forecast model (implemented Aug 2004)

• Climate Test Bed: established in 2005, focused on accelerating improvements in the Climate Forecast System and related seasonal forecast products

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Ongoing Strategic Priorities

• Accelerate improvements in the CFS and its use through accelerating Research-to-Operations (R2O)

– To accelerate R2O, need full support of Operations-to-Research (O2R) to enhance NCEP’s role in the transition process

• Be a partner within the international and national multi model ensemble enterprises

• Enhance the CPC operational product suite

• Address budget issues

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Operations to Research (O2R)

• Goal– To accelerate improvements in the NCEP Climate Forecast System by

providing CFS to the broad research community • Deliverables

– CFS, data, and support services to user community– Annual CFS User's Workshop

• Mechanism– Model Test Facility (FY11-15 budget cycle)

• Managed operational program between NCEP, CPO, and CTB• Technical and scientific support (help desk)• Reallocation of contract staff in FY09 is being considered

• Benefits– Provides support for research with CFS outside NCEP (ARCs, NSF,

etc)– Maximizes opportunities for community participation

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Proposed Model Test Facility– NCEP will provide

• Operational models (CFS, GFS) and data (e.g. reforecasts, reanalysis)

• Helpdesk facilities, training for O2R staff, web services

• Points of contact for collaboration

– CPO will provide

• Support for helpdesk, training, points of contact, web services

• Grants Program (AOs)

– CTB will provide

• Transition Infrastructure for pulling in the Research (R2O)

• Oversight and management

• Links between Test beds (e.g. CTB and HTB, HMT)

– Gaps

• Resources for fully-staffed Model Test Facility

• Resources for competitive transition activities, including pilot projects

Operations to Research (O2R)

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CTB Seminar Series

• 2007-2008

– Topic: “CFS as a prediction system and research tool”– Alternating venue between NCEP and COLA

• 2008-2009– Expand to include the broader climate community – Alternating venue between NCEP, COLA, and ESSIC– Broader participation, to include NOAA Air Resources Lab

(ARL)– Topic: 3 CTB Focus Areas

• CFS Improvements• MME Prediction Systems• Climate Forecast Products

• The seminar series will commence in October

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Developing a MME Prediction System

• International MME in negotiations

• National MME Strategy

– Engaged CPO to request NOAA facilitation

• Budget request for additional computing resources FY11-15

– Seeking to include concept in next CCSP Strategic Plan

– Pursuing elevation through CLIVAR

– NCEP has defined in-house strategy, requirements

• Considering running GFDL model in house

• Proposal for post doc at COLA for independent evaluation of GFDL model

– NCAR CCSM evaluations currently underway via CTB @ COLA

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Developing a MME Prediction System

• National MME Strategy

– However

• Need MOUs with partners for exchanges of operational models and real time forecast data

• NCAR and NASA have their own time lines for model development

• CTB resource limitations

– Insufficient computer resources to run hindcasts for other organizations

– Skill assessments

– Post-processing, calibration, consolidation, and preparation for operations

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Budget Issues

• O2R – Model Test Facility – people, data access, helpdesk, training

• CFS next Reanalysis (1979-2007)

• CFS next Retrospective Forecasts (1981-2007)

• AO for selected topics, including enhanced understanding of climate phenomena to improve CFS

• Visiting Scientist Program

• MME strategies

To improve climate predictions and enhance NOAA’s climate product suite, need full CPO support for the CFS, the CTB and its expanded vision, and related

transition activities

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Summary

• NCEP is eager and willing to improve NOAA’s climate prediction capability and product suite

• CTB is included in the NCEP Annual Operating Plan with specific milestones linked to Science Steering Committee recommendations

• CTB is developing stronger relationships with the climate community

• CTB will build upon past successes and future strategies to move climate prediction forward through improvement of the CFS (FY10 implementation) and spin up of the MME approach to short term climate prediction

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Appendix

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R&D –vs – Transition ?R&D –vs – Transition ?• Transition costs have been, and still are, under- resourcedTransition costs have been, and still are, under- resourced

• Within an era of constant or diminishing dollars, R&D and transition needs will Within an era of constant or diminishing dollars, R&D and transition needs will likely be competing with each other.likely be competing with each other.

Now

R&D

Transition Transition

R&D

R&D

Transition

R&D

Transition

Future ? ??

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2007-2008 CTB Seminar Series2007-2008 CTB Seminar Series– COLA Speakers at NCEP

1. Cristiana Stan - Estimation of the limit of predictability in stratosphere vs troposphere using CFS 

2. Ben Kirtman - Multi-model ensemble ENSO prediction with CCSM and CFS3. Kathy Pegion - Potential predictability of tropical intraseasonal variability in the

NCEP CFS4. Zeng-Zhen Hu - CFS hindcast skill as related to the mean state5. Renguang Wu - Surface latent heat flux and its relationship with SST in the NCEP6. Julia Manganello - Heat and momentum flux-correction experiments with CFS7. Deepthi Achuthavarier – South Asian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability in

CFS8. David Straus – CFS as a research tool for understanding mid-latitute intra-seasonal

variability and its relationship to SST

– NCEP Speakers at COLA1. Augustin Vintzileos - Subseasonal prediction with the NCEP CFS: Forecast skill and

prediction barriers for Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations2. Craig Long – CPC’s Evaluation of the Stratosphere in the Operational CFS and CFS-

Next3. Soo-Hyun Yoo– Simulation of the global monsoon with CFS 4. Wanqiu Wang – Sources of tropical SST bias in the operational CFS5. Lindsay Williams – NAMAP 2 and CFS Model Resolution6. Yan Xue - NCEP's GODAS and Ocean Monitoring Products7. Ken Mitchell – Summer and winter Season Hindcast Experiments with the CFS using

Different Land Models and Different Initial Land States8. Jon Gottschalck – MJO Monitoring, Assessment, and Research Activities at the

Climate Prediction Center

– NCEP Speakers at NCEP1. Huug van den Dool - Verification of daily forecasts by the CFS (the 2004 version)

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COLA Participation with CTBCOLA Participation with CTB

• Current Activities

– CFS experiments

• 12 COLA Technical Reports already produced based on CFS

• 10 COLA scientists, 2 PhD students and 2 summer interns using CFS

• Diagnose/model initial tendency errors in GFS/CFS (DelSole CTB project)

• Developed an interactive ensemble version of CFS

• Potential predictability of intraseasonal variability

• ENSO and the ENSO-monsoon relationship

• Bias, bias correction & skill in the Atlantic

• Winter high-res experiments to complement summer runs made by NCEP

– Multi-model experiments

• CCSM proof-of-concept (now a CTB project with U. Miami)

– CTB Seminar Series (venue and speakers)

• Planned contributions– Multi-model R2O

• GFDL CM2.1 transition to operations (collaboration with NCEP, GFDL)

• GMAO forecast diagnosis (R2O in discussion)

– O2R - support for CFS and other models: discussions with NCEP ongoing