17 - rajat mishra - competitve building guidelines and recent experiences
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Competitive Bidding: Guidelines
and Recent Experience
Department of Industrial and Management Engineering
Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur
3rd
Capacity Building Programme forOfficers of Electricity Regulatory Commissions
23 28 August, 2010
Forum of Regulators
Rajat Mishra, VP
SBI Capital Markets Limited
Indian Electricity Act 1910
- basic framework for development
- growth through public & private licensee
Electricity (supply) Act 1948- intervention of state and creation of SEBs
Electricity Regulatory Commission Act 1998
Electricity Act 2003
INDIAN POWER SECTOR REGULATORY FRAMEWORKIndian Power Sector - Evolution
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Current State
GDP growth rate of 8% to 9% will require similar
growth in power capacity
Installed generating capacity of 160 GW (March
2010)
Required over 200GW / 300GW by yrs 2012/2017
Electricity Act 2003 focuses on reforms, competition
Policies framed under Act reinforce the spirit
Generation:
All procurement through bidding makes processtransparent
Slowly beginning to attract foreign players also esp Case II
Foreign Lenders also making a comeback
Mundra UMPP attracted Multilaterals and ECAs
No cost-plus projects through MoU??????
Issues of gold plating etc FULL CIRCLE
Deviations decrease confidence of external players
Opportunities
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Generation:
Paradigm Shift in financing
Move from Payment Security based lending to
Competitive Tariff based lending
Open access very important
Retrograde steps on open access and cross subsidy hurts investor
and lender sentiments
Avoid mistakes of the past
Opportunities
Transmission:
Interregional transfer capacity to increase to 32.7 GW by 2012, to 57 GW by 2015
& 75 GW by 2017
Planned XIIth Plan investment is Rs 2,400 bn - Rs 1,400 bn in central sector
(interstate system) & Rs 1,000 bn in the state sector (intra-state system)
Empowered Committee 14 Projects identified
First 3 projects awarded
Tenders for the next 3 projects launched
State level projects
First PPP project awarded by HVPN to Kalpataru
Rajasthan project awarded by RVPN to GMR
UP has also invited tenders for state level projects
Private sector to be involved in development of evacuation systems for UMPP
Opportunities
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Competitive Bidding Guidelines
Sec 63 of the Electricity Act states that:
Background
Notwithstanding anything contained in section 62, the
Appropriate Commission shall adopt the tariff if such tariff
has been determined through transparent process of bidding
in accordance with the guidelines issued by the Central
Government.
The guidelines have been framed under the above provisions of
the Act.
Issued by the Ministry of Power on 19th January 2005
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Objectives
Promote competitiveprocurement of electricity
Facilitate transparency and fairness in procurement processes: Transparency ensured by Guidelines & Standard Bid Documents for
tariffbased bidding
Enhance standardization and reduce ambiguity and time for materialization
of projects
Standardization of Bid documents, Bid submission and evaluation
process, timelinefor biddingprocess, tariff structure
Provide flexibil ity to suppliers on internal operations while ensuring
certainty on availability of power and tariffs for buyers
Tariff to be quoted upfront for life of plant and Regulator to adopt tariff
arrived through transparent biddingprocess as specified by Guidelines
Developer has flexibilityto choose optimum unit configuration Provides incentive to Developer to adopt innovative financial modeling
and tax planning to ensure competitive tariff & return on investment.
Period of Procurement
Long Term Medium Term
For 7 or more years From 1 upto 7 years
Procurement Applicable For
Seasonal Power Peak Load: ???
Ideally suited for
hydro
Base Load
Scope
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Bidding Mechanisms
Case 1 Case 2
Scope
Location/ technology/
fuel not specified
Bidder responsible for
clearances/ approvals etc
More relevant for Stateswith limitedfuel sources
Higher risk for developer
Lower risk for state
Land/ Fuel provided by
Procurer
More applicable for
States where fuel
sources are available or
having coastalareas
Higher risk for State
Lower risk for developer
Tariff under case 2 expected to be lower than that under case 1
Procurement by more than
one distribution licensee
through a combined bid
process permitted through
authorized representative.
In case distribution licensees
are located in more than one
State, CERC shall be the
AppropriateCommission
Tariff Structure
Non Escalable
(Firm Price)
Medium Term
Long Term
One Part Tariff
Two Part Tariff
Energy Charge
Escalable
(Base Price withIndex)
Base Price
(with Index)
NQHR
Index notified by CERC
Optional
Capacity Charge
Tariff in INR only except FERV
on imported coal in case II
Min/Max Capacity Charge >
0.7
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Current CERC Rates
Parameter Rate
Discounting Rate for bid evaluation 9.35%
Escalation Rate Domestic coal 6.01%
Escalation Rates Imported Coal
Coal sub-component 16.4%
Transportation sub-component 16.23%
Inland handling sub-component 5.11%
Bidding Process
Two stage process for Long term procurement: Request for Qualification (RFQ)
Request for Proposal (RFP)
For Medium term the procurer has an option to adopt asingle stage tender process combining the RFP & RFQ
process.
The bidding shall be necessarily by way of InternationalCompetitive Bidding (ICB).
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Project Capacity (MW) Winner Bid Price
UMPPs
Sasan UMPP 4000 Reliance power 1.196
Krishnapattam
UMPP4000 Reliance power 2.336
Mundra UMPP 4000 Tata Power 2.265
TilaiyaUMPP 4000 Reliance Power 1.77
Others
Karachana, UP 1320 Jaiprakash Assoc. 2.97
Bara, UP 1980 Jaiprakash Assoc. 3.02
Rajpura, Punjab 1320 L&T 2.89
TalwandiSabo 2000 Sterlite 2.863
Bhaiyathan 1320 India Bulls 0.81
Case 2 Bids
Project Winner Tx. Charge (Rs. Mn)
WRSS Project B Reliance Power 1084.899
WRSS Project C Reliance Power 564.743
East-North Interconnection Sterlite Energy 1187.95
North Karanpura Reliance Power 2580.0051
Talcher-II Reliance Power 1440.0215
Rajasthan PPP GMR 356.50
Transmission Bids
HVPNL has awarded the 1st transmission project based on VGF to consortium of
KalpataruPowerTransmission and Techno- Electric and Engineering Company Ltd
Quoted one time grant of Rs.93.90 Crs and unitary charge of Rs.4.5 crs/month
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Project DeveloperInvestment
(Rs bn.)
Parbati-Koldam PKTCL [RPTL (74%) and Powergrid (26%)] 10.00
WRSSS-II RPTL 13.85
Sugen TPGL [Torrent Power (74%) and Powergrid (26%)] 3.20
Karcham-Wangtoo JPL [(Jaypee (74%) and Powergrid (26%)] 10.00
Mahan Essar Power Transmission Company 8.57
Teesta Urja TPTL [(Teesta Urja (74%) and Powergrid (26%)] 7.00
Mundra (Adani) Adani Power 15.00
Tiroda
MEGPTCL [Adani Power (74%) and Mahatransco
(26%)] 43.79
Jaigad
Jaigad Power Transco (JSW Energy -74% and
MSETCL 26%) 4.46
East-North Interconnection Sterlite Technologies 18.00
Talcher-II RPTL 9.00
North Karanpura RPTL 41.00
HVPNL (evacuation for Jhajjar
and power from Adani Power)
Kalpataru Power Transmission and Techno-
Electric and Engineering Company Limited 3.82
Transmission - Private Sector Projects
20.18
23.37
30.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2007 2008 2009
Volume(BnUnits)
Volume Transacted Through Traders & Power
Exchanges
40%
41%
9%10%
Break-up of Short Term Transactions (2009)
UI Bilateral (Through Traders)
Bilateral (Between DISCOMS) Through Power Exchanges
30% increase in volume of power
transacted through traders & exchanges
from2008 to 2009
In 2009, short-term power market
(including UI) was 8 per cent of the total
generation
2009 was 1st year for procurement of
power by industrial sector consumers
through power exchanges (IEX only)
The volume transacted through power
exchanges could have been 17% higher
but was restricted due to transmission
congestion
Short Term Transactions - Volumes
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Price of Short-Term Transactions of Electricity (Rs/Kwh)
Bilateral Through Traders Power Exchange UI (Grid)
Period RTC Peak Off-Peak Total IEX PXIL New SR
Jan-09 7.43 8.55 6.78 7.23 6.16 6.86 4.99 7.61
Feb-09 6.89 8.16 6.19 6.58 6.85 7.42 4.89 7.68
Mar-09 7.35 8.08 7.53 7.43 8.33 8.54 4.85 8.2
Apr-09 6.83 9.05 8.47 7.21 10.1 10.18 5.36 6.04
May-09 6.60 8.18 8.03 6.82 6.84 8.74 4.17 3.99
Jun-09 5.04 6.44 5.07 5.05 7.39 9.60 4.94 5.1
Jul-09 4.72 5.92 4.98 4.75 4.81 4.85 4.12 4.67
Aug-09 4.46 6.32 5.77 4.64 7.40 6.15 6.29 5.85
Sep-09 4.6 6.02 5.48 4.73 4.00 4.32 5.02 4.20
Oct-09 4.86 6.48 5.8 5.07 4.73 5.18 4.24 5.83
Nov-09 5.05 5.76 5.91 5.33 3.16 3.39 2.72 3.79
Dec-09 4.96 5.12 5.06 4.99 3.22 3.07 3.26 3.92
Prices of short-term transactions were higher during Apr-Aug period
The price of electricity transacted during peak, RTC and Off-peak periods shows a
declining trend and converged by December 2009
Short Term Transactions - Prices
Developers Perspective
Case Studies
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All assumptions to be questioned
Determine the Hurdle Rate for IRR
Criteria shifts to IRR from RoE
Hurdle Rate usually determined by Cost of
Equity and risk profile
Typical IRR for cost-plus is 11-12%
RISK TO BE ASSUMED
Bidding Considerations
Extremely important to have pre-bid tie-ups in
place
Commitment on major costs
Time period for which commitments would
hold
Interest rates risk?
Escalation & Currency provisions on EPC? Fuel Price Risk?
Bidding Considerations
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EPC:
Costs: Are the Chinese really cheap?
Performance guarantee on heat rate, aux
Sensitivity on domestic and imported coal
Degradations
Construction schedule
Currency, payment terms
Availability of ECA financing
Bidding Considerations
Domestic coal as fuel:
Mine development expense
Calorific value estimates
Cost of ash disposal
Cost of transportation MGR etc
Operations cost
Mix of Indexed and non-indexed costs
Bidding Considerations
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Imported Coal as Fuel:
Bidding Strategy and appetite for risk aremore important
Mix of Indexed and non-indexed costs muchmore important
More sensitive to variation in quality
HUGE RISK PERCIEVED BY LENDERS
FC may get delayed Sponsor Support
Bidding Considerations
Criteria Domestic Imported
Calorific Value
(kcal/kg)
3500 6000
Cost (Rs/MT) 1000 2700
Variable Cost
(Rs/kWh)
0.80 1.4
Imported Vs Domestic
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International Coal Prices
3224 27
5545
5061
120
70
95
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (till
June)
$/tonne
Prices indicative of upward trend since 2001
Prices increased in 2007 owing to huge demand from Asia, mainly China
Supply constraints, like port congestion (Australia), floods in Indonesia & strike at exportterminals (South Africa) also led to increase in prices in 2008
During 2009, prices fell as a result of global financial crisis
Current coal prices hovering around USD 95 per tonne - indicating close to 35% increase
over the previous year
Some Issues with Coal Supply
Of the 219 coal blocks allotted to private players, 40 were declared no-go byMoEF
India will have to import approx. 80 million tonnes of coal by 2011-12
Indonesian government change in Law
cap coal exports to 150 million tonnes annually from
2010 onwards
Indonesian coal Index for sale of coal
Will Sponsors continue to cross subsidise in rising coal pricescenario?
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Financial Assumptions
Financing Mix and sources to be decided
Large projects like UMPP have to source mix of RTL
and external financing
Limited availability of ECB for sector and such tenures
ECA are a viable option
Time consuming Equator Principles to be followed for ECB/ECA funding
Bidding Considerations
Bidding Scenarios
Scenario Effect on Tariff
D/E 80:20 8 paise
Loan repayment 15 years 7 paise
Interest Rate increase by 1% p.a. 3 paise
Open worksheet
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Case Studies
Some Bids
Reflects different strategies and risk appetite of
Bidders
For GUVNL bid that was all-inclusive, Adani had bid
based on imported coal
Tariff for each year fixed and no escalations
Risk of international coal price, transportation cost, forex
variation borne by bidder
Possible only with ownership / long term contracts for coal& transport
GUVNL Bid
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For UMPP Bids for Mundra, Tata Power and Reliance haddifferent bid strategies
TPL bid numbers were broken into escalable and non-escalable
components
Reflects clear direction of owning mine and ships (or
equivalent long term contracts) while retaining limited risk
Reliance had bid all numbers as escalable
Reflects strategy of procurement on spot basis for coal and
transport
No upsides possible unless captive mines / long term
contract on different terms
Was it conservative or aggressive?
UMPP Mundra
CERC Levelised Tariff: Rs 1.77
Base Operating Parameters:
Base CaseUMPP Sasan: Base Case
Auxiliary consumption 7.5%
O and M Values: Rs. 1 Mn/ MW
Coal price escalation 6.77%
Senior debt repayment period: 11 years
Plant load factor 80%
Levelised Tariff Quoted by Reliance Power : Rs 1.196 / Kwh
Project Cost / MW
(Rs Mn)
Project IRR
(%)
Equity IRR
(%)
Base Case 40.48 7% 0%
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Senstivity Analysis - Cumulative
7%
7.43% 7.81%
9.23%
9.30%
4.63%
0%
3.00%
8.77%
12.77%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1 2 3 4 5
Scenarios
ProjectIRR
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
EquityIRR
UMPP Sasan: Sensitivity Analysis
Scenario 1 2 3 4 5
Rate of interest 11.0% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5%
Auxilary 7.50% 7.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50%
PLF 80.00% 80.00% 80.00% 90.00% 90.00%
Repayment period 11 11 11 11 18
Rate of interest 11.0% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5%
INFERENCE ( SASAN)
Impact of Rate of Interest and debt repayment period is the
highest
In this case the repayment period is 18 years/Other cases 10-12
years
Most of the loans planned with Re-Financing
Some Major loans from IFC/ADB planned as long tenor loan
Rate of interest greatly brought down by huge ECB borrowing
Tariff of Rs. 1.196 p.u. extremely aggressive
Reliance can make project viable only by squeezing every variable ROI,
Auxiliary consumption, Tenor of loan, PLF and other non-traditional
venues
UMPP Sasan: Inference
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Use of bi-products flyash, Steam
Fly ash used in production of Cement
Reliance plans Cement factory near Sasan to utilize flyash
Low pressure steam to be used in production of fertilizer
Alternate use of coal
Additonal Coal from Captive Mine to be used in setting up other
power plants
Certified Emission Reduction(CER)
CERs could be traded in the Market for $15-$20
Vertical Integration
Entering into logistics Sector to reduce cost of transportation
UMPP Sasan: Alternate Revenue Sources
KPCL Case 2 Bid Gulbarga
Capacity 1320 MW
Location Gulbarga, Karnataka
Coal Domestic/International - ?
Procurers 5 DISCOMS of Karnataka
Key Details Coal to be arranged by the bidders either Domestic or Imported
Land and other approvals arranged by state
Plant location around 1000 kms by rail from nearby ports
Comfort letter required at bid stage from Domestic coal supplier
regarding supply for entire PPA tenure
FSA to be signed within 12 months from LoI
Bid requirements practically rule out any participation based on domestic coal linkages
allotted are project specific, developers with captive blocks prefer merchant plant
Imported coal also a practical no-go due to plant location nowhere near a port.Imported coal based tariffs would be very high
Is this really a well thought out Bid -?
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Payment Security offered differs widely
amongst states
Best recourse is 3rd party sale in case of default
Domestic mines offer a significant upside
potential
Imported coal bidding strategy differs on risk
appetite
Opportunities
Health of distribution companies
Too much capacity addition expected from Private Sector
Shortage in equipment supply
Slow Execution pace
Absence of Data on performance of Chinese equipment esp in
Indian Conditions
Funds crunch in Indian Financial market Sector/Firm/ group
Exposure Land Acquisition, R&R and approvals
Constraints
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Conclusion
Indian Power Sector has come a long way in terms of liberalization
Electricity Act 2003 combined with NEP, NTP have promoted competition/
better tariff for end customer
However developers should be aware of certain pitfalls
Competition from Captive Power Plants
Merchant Power tariff assumptions too high
Efficiency assumptions may not be entirely achievable in India
Government should play more proactive role
Sector exposure/Financial closure issues eased out
Development of Power trading model to be handled carefully
Path Ahead Really bright
Thank You
Questions?
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Appendices
Transmission Projects: Private sector
Source: India Infrastructure Research
Project DeveloperInvestment
(Rs bn.)
Parbati-Koldam PKTCL [RPTL (74%) and Powergrid (26%)] 10.00
WRSSS-II RPTL 13.85
Sugen TPGL [Torrent Power (74%) and Powergrid (26%)] 3.20
Karcham-Wangtoo JPL [(Jaypee (74%) and Powergrid (26%)] 10.00
Mahan Essar Power Transmission Company 8.57
Teesta Urja TPTL [(Teesta Urja (74%) and Powergrid (26%)] 7.00
Mundra (Adani) Adani Power 15.00
Tiroda
MEGPTCL [Adani Power (74%) and Mahatransco
(26%)] 43.79
Jaigad
Jaigad Power Transco (JSW Energy -74% and
MSETCL 26%) 4.46
East-North Interconnection Sterlite Technologies 18.00
Talcher-II RPTL 9.00
North Karanpura RPTL 41.00
HVPNL (evacuation for Jhajjar
and power from Adani Power)
Kalpataru Power Transmission and Techno-
Electric and Engineering Company Limited 3.82
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Case 1 Bids
RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE (1500MW), May 2010
Bidder
Quantity
(MW) Location
Levelized
Tariff
(Rs/Unit)
Levelized
Transmission Charge
(Rs/Unit)
Levelized Tariff Net of
Transmission Charges
(Rs/Unit)
PPA Signing
Date
Wardha Power 320 Maharashtra 3.42 0.33 3.09 Not Signed
RKM Powergen 300 Chattisgarh 3.72 0.33 3.39
Reliance Power 150 Maharashtra 3.99 0.33 3.66
Reliance Power 1241 M.P. 3.69 0.33 3.36
Corporate Power 380 Jharkhand 4.57 0.73 3.84
BIHAR (1500MW), Oct 2009
Bidder
Quantity
(MW)Location
Levelized
Tariff
(Rs/Unit)
Levelized Transmission
Charge (Rs/Unit)
Levelized Tariff Net
of Transmission
Charges (Rs/Unit)
PPA Signing
Date
ESSAR (Tori) 450 Jharkhand 2.64 0.35 2.29 July 2010
Monnet Ispat
(PTC)200 Orissa 3.62 0.35 3.27
KVK Nilanchal
(PTC)250 Orissa 3.97 0.35 3.63
Ind-Bharath
(PTC)250 Orissa 3.99 0.35 3.65
GMR 191 Orissa 4.05 0.35 3.70
JAS Infra 500 Bihar 4.22 0.35 3.87
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GUJARAT (3000MW), Jan 2010
RAJASTHAN (1200MW), Nov 2009
Bidder
Quantity
(MW) Location
Levelized
Tariff
(Rs/Unit)
Levelized Transmission
Charge (Rs/Unit)
Levelized Tariff Net
of Transmission
Charges Rs/Unit)
PPA Signing
Date
Adani Power
Rajasthan Ltd1200 Rajasthan 3.24 0.284 2.95 Jan 2010
GMR Kamalanga 100 Orissa 3.81 0.677 3.13 -
Ind Bharath Energy
(Utkal) Ltd 200 Orissa 3.95 0.677 3.28 -
RKM Powergen 300 Chattisgarh 4.30 0.596 3.71 -
Jindal India Thermal
Power450 Orissa 4.38 0.677 3.70 -
Bidder
Quantity
(MW) Location
Levelized
Tariff
(Rs/Unit)
Levelized
Transmission
Charge (Rs/Unit)
Levelized Tariff Net
of Transmission
Charges (Rs/Unit)
PPA Signing
Date
KSK Energy Ventures 1010 Chattisgarh 2.34 0.265 2.075 June 2010
Shapoorji Pallonji 800 Gujarat 2.80 0.265 2.535 May 2010
Essar Power Ltd. 1000 Gujarat 2.80* 0.265 2.535 May 2010
KARNATAKA (2000MW), Jan 2010
Bidder
Quantity
(MW) Location
Levelized
Tariff
(Rs/Unit)
Levelized
Transmission
Charge (Rs/Unit)
Levelized Tariff Net of
Transmission Charges
Rs/Unit)
PPA Signing
Date
Monet Power (PTC) 150 Orissa 3.76 0.83 2.93 Not Signed
Thermal Power Tech
(PTC)430
Andhra
Pradesh3.77 0.458 3.31
Meenakshi Energy
(PTC)200
Andhra
Pradesh3.80 0.458 3.34
JSW 600 Maharashtra 3.81 0.756 3.06
East Coast Energy
(PTC)400
Andhra
Pradesh3.89 0.458 3.43
NCC Power Projects
(PTC)400
Andhra
Pradesh3.89 0.458 3.43
MSEDCL (2000MW), May 2010
Bidder
Quantity
(MW) Location
Levelized
Tariff
(Rs/Unit)
Levelized
Transmission
Charge (Rs/Unit)
Levelized Tariff Net
of Transmission
Charges (Rs/Unit)
PPA Signing
Date
GMR EMCO 200 Maharashtra 2.88 0.287 2.593 March 2010
India Bulls1200 Maharashtra 3.27 0.287 2.983
Apr & Jun
2010
Adani Power
Maharashtra1200 Maharashtra 3.28 0.287 2.993
March 2010
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Other Case I Bids
Bid Details L1 L2 L3PPA Signing
Date
Haryana2113MW
Nov 2007
GMR
Kamalanga2.86 Rs
300 MW
Adani Power
Mundra2.74 Rs
1424 MW
- August 2008
Madhya
Pradesh2000MW
Nov 2007
Lanco Infratech2.34 Rs
600 MW
Reliance Power2.70 Rs
1241 MW
Essar Power
(Mahan)2.95 Rs
300 MW
Not signed
Case II Bids
BIDDER PROJECT BID PRICE (Rs/Kwh) OUTCOME
Jaiprakash Assoc.
Nov 20081320 MW, Karachana, UP 2.97
L 1
Jaiprakash Assoc.
Feb 20091980 MW, Bara, UP 3.02
L 1
L&T
Dec 20091320 MW, Rajpura, Punjab 2.89 L 1
Reliance power
July 2007
Sasan UMPP
4000 MW1.297 L1
Reliance power
Nov 2007
Krishnapattam UMPP
4000 MW2.33
L1
Tata Power
Dec 2006
Mundra UMPP
4000 MW2.265 L1
Reliance Power
Aug 2009
Tilaiya UMPP
4000 MW1.77 L1
India Bulls
Apr 2008
Bhaiyathan
1320 MW0.81 L1
Sterlite
Jul 2008
Talwandi
2000 MW2.863 L1
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